Traders Are Now 100% Sure The Fed Hikes Rates In December

Tyler Durden's picture

You better not let us down again Janet...

Rate Hikes are now 100% priced in...

 

Because the economy is doing so well...

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bada boom's picture

Yes I know, this explains the huge rally in stocks. /s

thesonandheir's picture

1000% baked in.

 

 

Equity guys showing time and time again why they are the dumbest guys in the room.

remain calm's picture

Do it bitch, make my day. And tell us 3 more next year bitch. Go ahead make my day.

ParkAveFlasher's picture

Gartman

Kitco interview

Oct '16

"Surely there will be a rate hike in December."

'nuff said.

Ignatius's picture

How come these "traders" aren't all broke and busted yet?

How many wrong calls on rate hikes can they afford?

It's perception management and nothing else.

tmosley's picture

They are going to pop the bubble so Trump inherits their massive recession.

It won't be a depression, because Trump's policies will actually allow us to heal. Reduced regulation and taxation are a hell of a sustainable stimulus, as long as you also cut government spending.

Haus-Targaryen's picture

I don't think Trump will do that. He is the "king of debt" which makes me think he'll attempt to kick the can. 

hxc's picture

He is the king of debt insofar as he is the king of debt restructuring. Give bondholders the finger and default on the debt when the crash comes and interest rates spike.

Not My Real Name's picture

There is nothing that can fix the economy; the international monetary system is broken. Until that changes, things will only get progressively worse.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Define "equity guy".  Most venture capital guys I know have already collected their pounds of flesh before the stock even goes public!

bada boom's picture

Bingo, someone knows how it works!

LawsofPhysics's picture

Damn straight.  The only thing the sheeple should be concerned about is the purchasing power of their wages.  But then again the average person is always cannon fodder.So what can a person really do?  Don't be average!!!!

Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

Why, because things are so much better than the last year? Why raise it now, makes no logical sense, other than Trump now won.  Give me a break. 

Impoverished Psychologist's picture

Yellen is the dying pilot crashing the plane into the ground on purpose...

Intelligence_Insulter's picture

Usury is what jews do.

Infield_Fly's picture
Infield_Fly (not verified) Nov 21, 2016 9:35 AM

Not going to happen - as of now - certain yields too low.

Vinividivinci's picture

Uh huh...and Killery had a "98.2%" chance of being President...
Washington and Wall street have been reduced to littlemore than
hightech fortune tellers...and not very good ones at that !

FreeShitter's picture

They are great fortune tellers if you are in the .01% since they own it.

spanish inquisition's picture

Gotta be a good value bet taking the other side.

. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

100%... wow.

I guess that means it won't happen.

ebworthen's picture

Wow, so we'll be at 0.5%?

Consider the perversity of the last time the economy sucked so bad rates were around 15%, and normalizing rates accomplished something.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Yep.  All this knashing of teeth over another 25 basis points when the ten years HAS ALREADY JUMPED 100!!!!!!

morons.  Hike is a no-brainer for the Fed, plenty of room.  Good luck Mr. Trump!

Dragon HAwk's picture

Never and Sure are always good bets.

SheepDog-One's picture

More Crazy pills please!

DarthVaderMentor's picture

The average Trump voter does not have much in the market, so Trump does not care. This will cost Yanet her job is she doesn't know it already. Her legacy will be toast.

SheepDog-One's picture

'Trump voters' don't have a lot of stawks, but the ahitlery voter safe space crowd does? I'm not too sure this hypothesis is correct.

sheikurbootie's picture

The statistics:  the average American has $90,000 in a 401k.  The average 60 year old has $130,000.  Whoopie shit.  You're not "retiring" on that amount anyway.  The stock market is gambling.   Don't do it.

Yellen raises the rate and our national debt servicing just sank the nation.  It was a stupid idea to go to zero rates in the first place.  Now, we crash if she raises them.  The failure of a Ponzi scheme is realized. 

Truth Eater's picture

exactly right sheikurbootie.  Rates up makes the national debt increasingly destructive.  It is already bad enough at current rates but if the market were to find actual values, the system would crash like cankles on election night.

bada boom's picture

Just to add, Trump told us the fed would raise rates in December and the bubble market would end. 

I'm going to take his word for it just like I should of taken Obama's when he said "What you're now seeing is profit-and-earning ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you've got a long-term perspective on it" March 3, 2009

medium giraffe's picture

Press the killswitch? Yeah, not f@!$%&* likely. 

Was this survey taken by the same guys that provided polls for Brexit and Hillary?

Jack Buster's picture

When is the decision?   December 6?

Bryan's picture

Well, 100% sure?  This calls for a couple cheap, way out of the money ES calls.  Whenever the 'market' is that sure of anything, something usually goes wrong.

Justin Case's picture

The 25 yr. bond bubble is deflating causing havoc in the markets and USD demand forcing it higher against all currencies. Corporate profits suffer from off shore manufacturing after conversion, while China exports it's deflation.

Joe Cool's picture

Crazy to think interest rates have been going down since 1981...

conraddobler's picture

The market is not a free market.

I know this because Obama's 2009 call on buying stocks will go down in history as the best stock market call of all time and Obama doesn't know stocks he was just told what they were going to do.

Mic dop.

NoWayJose's picture

And 100% uncertainty as to when (or if) the Fed will do another hike After December!

Clock Crasher's picture

Regarding equities, a rate rise of ZERO point twenty five percent is going to do one thing only. Turn what would have been a 9.9% decline into a 9.99% decline. Shorts WILL cover, like they always do.

Seasmoke's picture

I'm waiting for 110%  ……… I only like teams that give 110% effort.

 

Plus if she doesn't raise, it doesn't make a difference.....she said 4 rate hikes in 2016, so far we have ZERO , yet here we are at All Time highs and discussing fucking rate hike for December !!!!

CoCosAB's picture

Nothing to do with that economic crap talk!

 

The secular ruling Families are the ones that decide when and how...

 

And by the signals and messages sent, the "when" as a high probability of occurring in December, because the BIG PARTY of wealth transfer is schedule to 2017!

1777's picture

They probably will;

1) their administration is over and the extra .gov spending is no longer needed(for the lefties).

2) Any adversity can be blamed on Trump.

3) They can say 'see we're raising rates'!

Witness's picture

The rates will go up. Even if they don't want them to. Game is over. :)

chosen's picture

Really, raising the interest by .25 is practically nothing.  I remember when it was normal to get 5.00% on a passbook bank savings account.  Now some online bank makes a big deal because they are raising from .95% to 1.00% for online savings accounts.   I will be somewhat impressed when rates hit 4.0%.

GoldMiser's picture

100% Sure only counts when it comes to death or taxes, in this case death.

Marcecamb's picture

Traders experts, predicting? Yeah, sure!

Like the other ''experts'' that predicted Hillary winning by more than 90 per cent chance.

 

scintillator9's picture

Anyone remember this?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-06/fed-s-fischer-says-fo...

 

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said policy makers’ forecasts predicting four interest-rate increases in 2016 were “in the ballpark,” though China’s slowing economy and other sources of uncertainty make it difficult to predict the path of policy.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-lacker-backs-four-rate-hikes-in-20...

In December, when the Fed raised interest rates for the first time in almost a decade, it signaled a desire to raise interest rates four times this year. But the U.S. central bank pulled back their projections to two rate hikes in March, in light of global weakness and financial market turmoil.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-yellen-idUSKCN1111ND

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart also said on Friday that two rate hikes were possible this year, and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester argued for a hike soon to avoid falling behind the curve on inflation.


boeing747's picture

Zero chance Fed will hike interest rate. If indeed rate raised, then it's for political purpose not economy one.