American "Hope" Spikes To Highest In 18 Months After Trump Win

Tyler Durden's picture

Inflation expectations (short- and long-term) have risen notably in the latest Uiniversity of Michigan survey data but it is "hope" that has soared. Consumer Expectations spiked most in over 3 years to 85.2 in November to 18 month highs following the election of Donald Trump as US president.

While current conditions remain well off the summer highs (107.3 vserus 110.8 in June), it is the surge in "hope" that is most notable.

Furthermore Business Expectations soared from 80 to 92 post-election.

So why the surge in optimism? One word: Trump.

According to the report, the initial reaction of consumers to Trump's victory was to express greater optimism about their personal finances as well as improved prospects for the national economy. The post-election gain in the Sentiment Index was +8.2 points above the November pre-election reading, pushing the Index +6.6 points higher for the entire month above the October reading.

The post-election boost in optimism was widespread, with gains recorded among all income and age subgroups and across all regions of the country. The upsurge in favorable economic prospects is not surprising given Trump’s populist policy views, and it was perhaps exaggerated by what most considered a surprising victory as well as by a widespread sense of relief that the election had finally ended. To be sure, no surge in economic expectations can long be sustained without actual improvements in economic conditions. Presidential honeymoons represent a period in which the promise of gains holds sway over actual economic conditions.

UMich however warns that "Presidential honeymoons can quickly end if they are unaccompanied by prospects that economic conditions will actually improve in the future."

As UMich concludes, "President-elect Trump appears to appreciate the importance of his first hundred days; the key issue is whether his economic policies will resonate with the nation's consumers. The data indicate that consumer spending will advance by 2.5% in 2017."

For now, however, all is well: after all Obama has 2 more months left under his tenure. After that all bets are off.

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Squid Viscous's picture

Cracker Barrel is up 30% since the election, lol...

junction's picture

That "hopium" feeling does not extend to New York City.  If you want to hear about what a police state we are in now, you should have listened to MSNBC this morning, at 11:56AM just before Tamron Hall closed her daily show. Hall spoke with one of the show’s dimwit reporters, this reporter at Central Park West reporting on preparations for the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade.  I didn’t get the reporter’s name but that doesn’t matter, she just spouted the New York Police Department press release.  “500 members of the Critical Response Command, with long guns and thicker vests.”  “For the first time, closure of 57th Street and 42nd Street.”  Concrete barriers now on the sidewalk to be moved onto the street.  Fencing along the entire parade route.  And, of course, new smartphones for the police so they can get instant messaging.   

Tamron Hall accepts without question this reporter’s NYPD propaganda.  Police looking like Nazi storm troopers positioned along the parade route.  Sightseers penned into the sidewalk, except of course for the select few with official passes, like reporter and friends of Mayor DeBlasio.  The same mayor who has yet to explain how his administration approved the shutdown of the 200 bed nursing home at 45 Rivington Street near Chinatown.  The buyer of this nursing home “flipped” the property to a Chinese developer, making a $72 million profit.  DeBlasio’s top aide and fund raiser, James Capalino, arranged everything.  Don’t worry, Tamron, the NYC Department of Investigation is on the job.  DOI is run by Mark Peters, formerly the mayor’s campaign treasurer.  Peters was the one who accepted the bribes, excuse me, campaign contributions, from the Brooklyn nursing home operator behind this scandal, that Capalino funneled to the Mayor’s campaign. 

As New York City is looted of everything that is not nailed down, with Mayor DeBlasio buying claw hammers, the police are busy collecting huge amounts of overtime pay guarding the Thanksgiving Day Parade route.  Yet not one NYPD detective has in the past 15 years ever really investigated the 9/11 attack on the World Trade Center.  Not their job, the WTC’s “broken windows” don’t meet corrupt and racist NYPD commissioner Bratton’s “broken windows” policy.




bada boom's picture

Still waiting on change...

847328_3527's picture

But npr said things are worser then ever this morning?

bada boom's picture

It's the Trump effect.  Now they're reporting the truth.

Seasmoke's picture

I think I'm going to Trump Taj Mahal in Atlantic City to celebrate and gamble. 

Squid Viscous's picture

at least you can still get a whore on Pacific Ave, then take her to a flea bag motel on the White Horse Pike


Inflation expectations and hope spiking.  Ain't life grand?

BabaLooey's picture


UMich was just handing out Play-Doh and coloring books to their crytards last week.


Joe Cool's picture

They obviously didn't poll the coffee shops with the black lipstick girls and the guys wearing elf-like shoes with bells on the end 

the grateful unemployed's picture

people are buying guns and freeze dried food

There's picture

Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain. Things are going to be wonderful. Just watch Mr. Donalavich Backoff back away from all those rosy campaign promises.He will soon show his transformation into Mr. GriftyGraft. It is proving so easy to fool so many Americans. Keep your eye on the Graft it is going to make any Clinton Foundation malfeasence pale.

Gladi8tor's picture

(•_•) <) )? President Trump / \ \(•_•) ( (> Say it / \ (•_•) <) )> Bitchez. / \

scoutshonor's picture

Hope spikes = Suckers abound

Dave5150's picture

So... People are finally admitting that things haven't been all rainbows and unicorns under the Community Organizer.  Imagine that.


And, true inflation has been over 6-8% for years.  Fed-manipulated bullshit inflation numbers are worth about as much as the funny-money they've been printing for years.

conraddobler's picture

You really can never underestimate the American consumer.

Only cutting off their access to credit will stop them when they get the urges to buy.


To Hell In A Handbasket's picture

Didn't I just read blacks are spending like crazy?

hoagy goldmikel's picture
hoagy goldmikel (not verified) Nov 23, 2016 2:26 PM

all the libs I know are in sell panic mode