Mortgage Refinancings Collapse To 2016 Lows As Rates Top 4.00%

Tyler Durden's picture

Mortgage applications tumbled 9.4% from the prior week as mortgage rates soared above 4.00% to the highest level since July 2015. The biggest driver of the decline in mortgage demand was a 16% crash in refinances - tumbling to their lowest level since the first week of January (a seasonally dismal time).

 

 

This plunge is notably worse than seaonal norms would suggest and also implies more is to come...

 

None of which bodes well for the soaring homebuilder stocks...

 

Just don't tell Janet.

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Life of Illusion's picture

 

 

Steven will make it great again.

buckstopshere's picture

2017 will be a doozy.

MikeOz's picture

Thats what they said about 2016!

buckstopshere's picture

The S&P500 did crash when priced in gold.

Go to http://www.stockcharts.com/ and enter $SPX:$GOLD to look at the S&P500 priced in gold.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Fuck, that's what my Grandfather said about 1972...

post turtle saver's picture

well, let's qualify that... those are 30 yr. rates with at least a point tacked on... 15 yr. rates are lower...

HRH of Aquitaine's picture

Sounds like a lot of refi folks could be getting pink slips in December. Take a vacay, come back in May.

SomethingSomethingDarkSide's picture

Ask a recent ARM home owner to perform some arithmetic!  Kaboom!

LawsofPhysics's picture

$50 bread...

Going to be fun watching the SNAP program collapse...

hedge accordingly.

 

Hohum's picture

Rates will come back down again.  Patience, grasshopper.

buckstopshere's picture

More negative real rates.

The nominal rate might go up but not faster than inflation.

economicminor's picture

maybe in 30 years when the grasshopper finally learns to save again.

going to be quite a ride

Bemused Observer's picture

The hell with the rates. I want to see the PRICES come down. And I speak as a homeowner with little equity...

I'm not stupid enough to think of an inflated price as "wealth" that is somehow mine...I see my house as a house, a place to live and store my shit. It would be the exact same house at half the current 'value'. In fact, the phony inflated 'price' only benefits the ones collecting property taxes.

But houses at half their current prices would create a much more robust market, and not just for houses, which in the long run benefits me far more than an artificially propped-up one that just stagnates and no one can afford to buy or sell.

conraddobler's picture

A lot of noise.

The seasonal norm chart if you bother to look reflects that appliatons are SEASONAL.

In a manipulated market if you have to take rates higher, take them higher when no one is doing loans anyhow.

If we're in Mid March and the rates are still this high then it's teotwawki until then we march on in this manipulated madness.

Grandad Grumps's picture

The US has plenty of houses. And if you have not refinanced by now, you are an idiot.

post turtle saver's picture

no kidding... and if you haven't refinanced a 30 yr into a 15 yr by now then you really _are_ dumb...

"math is hard" lol

mbutler101's picture

Hell is there a 100 year available? Fuck 'em.

Bad Whitey's picture

30 year fixed is a far better inflation hedge and you can always turn a 30 year into a 15 year by paying down your principal aggressively.  The high payments on a 15 yr. can get you into trouble a lot faster when life throws a curveball.  When I refied 30 yrs. @ 3.25% I believe 15 year rates were around 2.75.  Not worth it IMO.  

angry_dad's picture

Except you are unemployed with a <600 FICO and your home has lost 1/2 of it's value.

angry_dad's picture

Uh Oh, 

BROWN BEAR, BROWN BEAR, what do you see?

I see a bubble about to burst on me.

Widespreadpanic's picture

I know a couple of not so bright, get rich dreamers that started selling real estate the last few years. They actually have sold quite a few properties.
--That's how i know shit is out of control.