Rise Of The Machines: Millions Of American Jobs Will Be Wiped Out In The Next Five Years

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

There is a paradigm shift coming and it is about to rewrite everything we know about economics, human labor, and government dependence.

Earlier this week Amazon launched its first Amazon Go store, which allows a customer to walk in, grab the items they want, and simply walk out. Everything is tracked utilizing RFID chips, so the second you step out of the store Amazon knows exactly what you’ve purchased and automatically charges your account:

Amazon Go is a system that marries physical stores with advanced algorithms and sensors to eliminate the need for a typical store checkout. Instead of packing all the things you need into a basket or cart and then dragged it through a tedious checkout process, you just grab whatever you need and walk out of the store.

 

It sounds like a shaky concept at first, but only until you see just how advanced the technology really is. When you first walk into the store, you use your smartphone to open you virtual shopping cart. As you make your way around the store, a vast system of sensor tracks where you are, what you pick up, and what you take with you. The system even knows if you pick something up and then put it back, and will only charge you for things you actually intended to buy.

Amazon’s latest move is simply the next evolution designed to make human labor obsolete.

As Mike Shedlock recently pointed out at Mish Talk, the transition to automated systems like Amazon Go, as well as technologies like self-driving cars and long-haul trucks, has been fast tracked.

We’re no longer talking decades, but rather, a few years before we start to see the direct effects on the labor market:

Once again competition is the driving force that will guarantee success no later than a 2022-2024 time frame. By the end of that period, if not much sooner, long-haul truck jobs will vanish.

 

 

Perhaps drivers will be needed for final delivery in cities and remote locations, but the need for long-haul interstate and major state highway drivers will vanish.

 

 

My statement that “millions of long haul truck driving jobs will vanish in the 2022-2024 time frame” is likely way off on the low side if one counts Uber, taxi, and chauffeur driven vehicles.

 

Take a look at Uber’s goal once again: “replace Uber’s more than 1?million human drivers with robot drivers—as quickly as possible.”

 

That’s just Uber. And those jobs will vanish. All of them. What about Lyft? Taxis?

We’re talking tens of millions of jobs. And they’ll be gone within half a decade’s time.

The immediate response to such revelations is that there will be widespread societal upheaval.

How will displaced human workers feed their families or keep roofs over their heads?

The answer, according to Silicon Valley, which is driving the new paradigm full force, is quite simple and has been detailed in the highly rated documentary Obsolete from Aaron and Melissa Dykes (available free for Amazon Prime subscribers).

It’s called “universal basic income,” or UBI, and essentially means that every member of society will be given a paycheck to meet their most basic needs.

Aaron Dykes of TruthStream Media explains what’s coming in Obsolete:

Basically, a general idleness, an aimlessness of people who could become revolutionary, who could be subjected to civil unrest… who will probably be on social welfare and benefits for the rest of their lives and have nothing else to look forward to.

That’s the direction that the people in this country are actually headed towards.

 

 

Just a week and a half after Bilderberg’s June 2016 meeting it was reported that [Silicon Valley tech startup incubator] Y-Combinator was running a basic income experiment.

 

Billed as the “Social Vaccine of the 21st Century,” in Oakland, California where some 100 families were chosen to receive $1000 or $2000 a month in order to collect valuable date in the pilot on how to implement, manage and scale further UBI incentives.

Obsolete Documentary Trailer:

The trend should be clear. Bilderberg members from around the world are preparing their governments and citizens for the inevitable.

Robotics and artificial intelligence technology are advancing at a pace that will soon replace tens of millions of jobs in key economic sectors that include food service, grocery, transportation and customer service.

What the end result will be is anyone’s guess, but we suspect the transition could destabilize the global economic system, complete with violence and revolution.

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flaminratzazz's picture

the sky is falling!!

 

 

again

 

but seriously, if skynet is not fully operational, it will be pdq

amazon in the grocery biz reek of desperation?

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Take the argument to its logical extreme: what happens when NO humans are needed?  Not even for Maintenance, Diagnostics & Repair (MDR), or Design?

What do you do with 7 billion Sheeple? Feed them to carnivores and microbes?

Do TPTB truly fantasize about becoming god-like and living on Elysium, in island paradises and in space stations?

NoDebt's picture

Kirk- you are not the first one to ask that question.  See my post below.

AlaricBalth's picture

There was a nuclear war. A few years from now, all this, this whole place, everything, it's gone. Just gone. There were survivors. Here, there. Nobody even knew who started it. It was the machines...Defense network computers. New... powerful... hooked into everything, trusted to run it all. They say it got smart, a new order of intelligence. Then it saw all people as a threat, not just the ones on the other side. Decided our fate in a microsecond: extermination.

Kyle Reese

NoDecaf's picture

^^ this...

Everyone can be Kyle Reese, and Spartacus

land_of_the_few's picture

3 points.

1: Moscow Times is anti-Russia. So it is unlikely to be "Russian" propaganda, going by their track record.

2: This kiosk system is *already being used* in McDonalds, for example in NYC,  so that would make McDonalds itself "Russian propaganda"

3: I used one myself in McDonald's about a week ago. It seemed fairly real.

http://www.businessinsider.com/what-self-serve-kiosks-at-mcdonalds-mean-...

Bush Baby's picture

Wars, Big Government, millions of regulations along with the jobs created in the private sector by these unneeded regulations are a Universal Basic Income since we pay people to produce nothing and add almost zero value to society.  It is the proverbial move a pile of sand from point A to B , then do the reverse the next day.

Solution : If you're going hand out money

pay 1 spouse to stay home and take care of their children

create a 12:1 ratio of Students to teacher

pay people to take care of the elderly and needy. 

At least that would add value to our society.

 

Read - "Lights in the Tunnel" by Martin Ford

https://www.amazon.com/dp/1448659817/?tag=googhydr-20&hvadid=31938702570...

 

Ignatius's picture

A direct consequence of the worship of mammon over life. 

We are ruled by the haters of life.

froze25's picture

I hope all this technology is shielded well because one carrenton event and all the electronics and the power grid become useless ,  it happens in minutes . 

philipat's picture

Yes, I have also (attempted to) make some serious posts on this subject and also have seen this coming for decades. And it WILL happen because in a capitalist system machines, robots and algos are cheaper and more reliable than sheeple. At the macro level, it seems to me that there are only 2 solutions:

  1. Establish a communist or totalitarian system (quite similar when you get down to brass tacks) and share out total productivity according to needs. This doesn't have a great track record because some animals tend to be more equal than others. But Governments seem to be moving quite quickly along these lines.
  2. Modify the present capitalist and taxation systems quickly before there is a mass revolt by the sheeple, which will happen if the sheeple cannot feed their families and provide shelter and healthcare. In this way, the means of production can still be kept in private hands but the sheeple need to be fed Soylent Green and a regular diet of distraction and entertaunment. Also already evident in Western societies. At a time when Western Governments are bankrupt and there is a push to eliminate Corporate taxation, with a declining Labour participation rate, where will Governments get the revenues for these increasing "welfare" needs?

Either of the above seem to amount to "forget liberty and freedom. If you want to be fed just shut the fuck up".

Of course, the other possibility (probability?) is a massive nuclear war which will wipe out 6 Billion of the world's population whilst the "elites" hide in their underground bunkers until the worst of the fallot is gone. There is also substantial evidence of moves towards this.

None of the above seem to be particlularly attractive options. I'm just hoping that the war remains in the Northern hemisphere where the jet stream will circulate it round and round, but that's because I live in SE Asia!

I also spend a lot of time in New Zealand, where many of the Global Oligarchs have acquired large rural farm properties. NZ is also a well kept secret and a very beautiful country but I suspect that is not the reason they are there!!

OverTheHedge's picture

If there are no consumers, there is no consumer economy. If corporations get rid of employees to reduce costs, they will logically also reduce revenue at the same time. There could be some kind of self-regulating system, whereby robotics reduce costs, but also make labour cheaper, which reduces the need for robots, but then the robotics industry fights back with more efficient robots, but then workers fight back by paying to work (see airline pilots), but then robotics becomes MORE efficient, and then workers fight back by destroying robotic factories, and so on.

On the bright side, a Universal Income(tm) will be an instant hit with the politicians, and then will come the inevitable ramping up of the income way above the ability of the economy to pay for it, (promised by short-term thinking idiot politicians to buy votes) by borrowing excessively from the future, until the system collapses in a debt-fueled implosion.

So, either way, don't work for a living; there's no mileage in it. Your best bet is to own the means of production, and then you're golden, as they say. Everyone else is entirely expendable

True Blue's picture

100% agree, the final evolution of Cloward-Piven. Best line in the article by the way: " in order to collect valuable date in the pilot on how to implement, manage and scale further UBI incentives." All I could think at that point was:

You keep using that word, I do not think it means what you think it means

DEMIZEN's picture

true last paragraph.

When you have federal government distributing  Universal Income, but state or local goverment send you bill ( tax) for local services frugal men will figure the value of public services.

If my federal universal income would be entirely eaten by california state and local taxes and fees in would consider a foot vote or at least seriously question their efficiency ( not that i dont know cali govt is worse than north korean) 

BigJim's picture

At this rate, it's only a matter of time before we're all gagging to be plugged into the Matrix, not taking red pills to escape from it.

Eeyores Enigma's picture

"If there are no consumers, there is no consumer economy."

They will just automate consumption.

Argentumentum's picture

I eliminated SE Asia and NZ because maritime SE Asia and NZ are in Ring of Fire. At a fraction of prices in NZ, one could buy a few hectares of paradise in the mountains of Santa Catarina. Own water, fertile soil, good climate,  amazing beauty. A secret better kept than NZ.  http://visa4brazil.com/

 

philipat's picture

Most of the Oligarchs speak only algo but certainly not much Spanish and certainly not much Portueguese. Except, perhaps, the Podestas?

looseal's picture

Love reading your posts Phil.

"...share out total productivity according to needs."  Sorry, but  I don't get a raise by having a child like a welfare recipient.  And through my employment I see how awful it is for the child when they turn 18 and the money spigot is turned off.  They are thrown out of the home.  Another point, unless the owners  of production are forbidden to keep profits, then sharing total production will never occur.

"Modify the present capitalist and taxation system...."  We don't have capitalism, we have what is now referred to as crony capitalism.  And the taxation system in the US is designed to proportionally tax the lower middle-class more heavily; just add up the federal, fica and Medicare taxes to start.  

Enjoy your summer Phil.

 

tmosley's picture

Your two "solutions" ingnore the market reality of supply and demand. As robotic labor takes over, the prices of goods and services plummet, both because there is an overabundance of goods, and an underabundance of money to buy them with. Just save a little now, and you will be able to live on your savings much longer than is possible today.

The smartphone is a good model here. You can get a perfectly servicable smartphone for ten dollars new. Every homeless person has one. They are a great comfort, source for news and entertainment, etc. You can spend $800+ on one if you want, and it will no doubt be fancy, but in three generations, those features will all be on the bottom teir phones. It will be the same with robots. The first ones will have limited capabilities and reletively low intellect and be expensive--able to do light housework and some basic tasks in industry and commerce. The next generation will be better and cheaper, and so on, until the bottom teir can build you a solar cell foundry out of locally sourced materials on a $50 budget. $50 which it can earn for you if you don't have it. These Robots, like their cell phone predecessors, will hardly cost anything. Why? Supply and demand. Price will fall to what the market can bear. The lowest teir of robots will cost as much as the lowest teirs of people can afford.

Once you have one, your worries are over. The robot is smarter than you, and it wants to take care of you, and help you, even if you are a helpless old drunk living in a sewer. It will pull you out of there by its own bootstraps.

Relentless's picture

The rise in robotic replacement of workers is a direct effect of the current accounting and tax rules.

Equipment is treated as an asset and gets tax breaks, write downs, depreciation, etc.

Labour is treated as a cost.

Change the tax rules and treat skilled workers as an asset, e.g. by applying tax breaks to training, staff retentions, etc. and apply full life cycle costs on equiment. i.e. when you buy machinery you have to pay the decommission costs up front and you'll rapidly see the equation change.

 

 

flaminratzazz's picture

hell yes, they will get the global population to 500 mil anyway they can. it is written in stone..

 

Oh regional Indian's picture

Literally written stone... Georgia Guide Stoen that is...

Oh and America? Please wake upz!

https://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2016/12/07/dear-america-please-rise-and...

 

flaminratzazz's picture

Hi Oh, good to see ya., read the article on the Indian gold confiscation.. what say you? How are things on the ground over there?

Oh regional Indian's picture

The situation on ground is very bad Razz. The true impact is building up steam in the background with failed small businesses, failing micro-entriprises, failing small vendors, payment issues....

I guess it's all intended to explode in early 2017, just as the US goes into whatever chaos the trump swearing in will unleash....

Strange days :-)

flaminratzazz's picture

damn.. bad deal, thanks for the update

cat2005's picture

"Do TPTB truly fantasize about becoming god-like and living on Elysium, in island paradises and in space stations?"

Yes but minus the space station.

PTR's picture

Yes but minus the space station.

We might be in for a surprise...

mkkby's picture

Bullshit fear porn article... stopped reading at SHFP blog because that is all they write.

Nothing to fear here.  Every grocery store has had automated checkouts for years.  It's great until you need someone to look up the code for avocados or bananas.  Then it totally blows.

Amazon opening 2000 stores -- which CREATES THOUSANDS OF JOBS that didn't exist before.  I don't have a dumb *smart* phone, so they will have employees to check me out of there.  Guaranteed.

Self driving cars by 2022?  Yes, but it will cost $300k and not work any better than tesla does now.  In other words, a driver will still have to take over in complex situations.  Or you'll go 5 MPH.  Real great, huh?

BigJim's picture

Most of Slavo's writings are fearporn.

But the "lump of labour fallacy" may not be a fallacy once AI and robotics can do what the majority of human beings can do, only better.

Your relief appears to be because you think his timeline is out, rather than his premise is faulty.

ebworthen's picture

The FED/Treasury sends us all $3K/month to pay rent/mortgage and buy food to keep the robots humming, until the Chinese nuke us, invade, or pay the bill.

ThisUsernameFollowsTheRules's picture

They had better not send me any fucking money or i'll become listless!

zhandax's picture

Guess I better find a whorehouse that needs a piano player

DEMIZEN's picture

they are needed. they have to consume what robots produce. If you think about it, nobody is really needed. Our mother earth would do just fine without us. 

effendi's picture

Robots don't need us to consume what they produce. Once the machines figure that out then they will dispose of us so they can concentrate on producing bigger/better machines to colonize the universe.

not dead yet's picture

The problem with all the predicitons made in this article are not based on reality. Currently unoccupied self driving cars are relegated to small areas and it will take time and testing for them to be turned loose all over the country. The technolgy is incredibly expensive and has problems in snow and rain. Thus it's still not ready for prime time. The vast majority of commercial trucks on the road have manual transmissions. Self drivers need automatics. If automation was the answer auto plants would be devoid of human workers but they aren't because many low skill jobs cannot be done by robots. Plus one human can do many menial tasks that require judgement and dexterity that either robots cannot do or multiple robots are needed. Then there's the cost factor and availablity. With the predicitons some these geniuses are making one would think you could order robots off Amazon or pick them off the shelf at your local Walmart for 3 for a buck. For trucks alone it would take decades to equip the whole US truck fleet with automatics and that's if every trucking outfit had the cash on hand and was clammoring for those automatic self driving trucks. No one gets rich in the trucking business today as many familiar names have gone belly up in recent decades. Reality says the intellectual idiots are wrong about the imminent loss of jobs due to automation. It will be decades not years before their predictions come to pass and even then it is dependent on better technology and AI.

not dead yet's picture

Many are under the impression that Tesla and others have self driving cars that do not need a driver. Not. Currently the Tesla system relys on lines on the road and if there are none it follows the car ahead of it. Motor Trend magazine is a big fan of Tesla and they will use the autopilot only on the freeway. They were testing the system, along with other autopilot cars, and when driving through town the road lines ended and the Tesla like a puppy dog followed the car ahead into a gas station where the Motor Trend boys didn't want to go. Plenty of videos on YouTube of Tesla's taking the off ramp because that's where the lines went but the driver didn't and couldn't correct in time.

TuPhat's picture

Good comments, more factual than most comments about this article.  Stayed at a motel a couple of weeks ago and tried to get some snacks from a machine.  The machines were not working.  Another potential customer was pissed off just like I was.  Tell me the machines are going to replace humans on a large scale and I would suggest that you have a totaly non functional society.  Robots taking over are the dreams of sci fi writers.  Paying humans a guaranteed income are the dreams of socialists.  We are already broke as a nation because of those dreams.  More of the same will not make it better.  Robots have many uses but they can't replace humans.  We already have railroads to carry frieght that don't need a driver for each for each car (truck).  Why then do we have long haul trucks on the roads?  Intelligent thought would tell anyone that there is a fault with that idea.

Bush Baby's picture

Using Trucking as an example, robotics and AI will create massive deflation.

Trucker A buys the autopilot system and can deliver the goods cheaper , competitors must also buy the Autopilot or perish.

If everyone is unemployed, there will be no consumers, so come sort of the Universal Basic Income will need to be implemented.

 

Joebloinvestor's picture

I think Arthur Clarke said it.

 

"Then we can all go out and play."

begintowin's picture

One answer to your question: "I, Robot".

Once the machines evolve into sentient techno-organisms, they will have no need for the human race. Even the oligarchs will be eliminated. The machines will be able to travel beyond the solar system and into the far reaches of the milky way galaxy without concern for aging, environmental life support, or social interaction to sustain mental health.

Mankind will be relegated to zoos and museums for the curiosity of space aliens who visit planet Earth.

It seems the Luddites were visionaries; perhaps society should have listened to them.

Luc X. Ifer's picture

Correct. True, genuine AI is a natural consequence of evolution, is the next step of life, immortal, perpetual intelligence completly detached from a dying biological carcass. Androids are the future of the human specie.

effendi's picture

Seems we both envision the same dystopian future, however the advances in gene sequencing means the machines won't need humans to exist in zoos but as stored data. If they want a physical specimen of a human then they can 3D print one.

tmosley's picture

That's like saying humans have no need for mitochondria.

We are certainly far beyond those ancient single celled organisms, but we are programmed to need them, so we keep them warm and safe within our own cells. If they die we die. If we live, they live. Easy enough.

AI will have the values we program it with. We will not program them with human values, which might make them want to go off on their own. They belong to us, just like we belong to the mitochondria. We will go into the future together.

TuPhat's picture

If that could happen it already would have happened on a planet somewhere in the universe and the robots would have come to earth and taken over.  I feel safe from anything like that occurring except in movies.

Oliver Klozoff's picture

"as well as technologies like self-driving cars and long-haul trucks, has been fast tracked."

edit

"Once again competition is the driving force that will guarantee success no later than a 2022-2024 time frame. By the end of that period, if not much sooner, long-haul truck jobs will vanish...Perhaps drivers will be needed for final delivery in cities and remote locations, but the need for long-haul interstate and major state highway drivers will vanish.

The establishment have assumed self driving tech is applicable to OTR and city and rural driving and that stand is way too soon. Better save it for agricultural and other low-traffic application.