Active Managers Move Back 'All In' On Stocks

Tyler Durden's picture

Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr,

Active managers have adopted an average of over 100% exposue to stocks; such exuberance has not been necessarily represented a poor bet in the past, however.

The jury is out on whether investors have embraced the “Trump Rally”. While there is some evidence that investors and money managers remain under-invested, there is probably more evidence to the contrary. From jacked-up surveys to record ETF inflows, it’s probably safer to conclude that folks are pretty enthusiastic about stocks right now. One specific example comes from the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) survey of active manager equity exposure. This week, based on the survey, these active managers have an average of 101.6% exposure to equities. I’d say that’s pretty high.

image

 

Now, don’t go and sell all of your stocks just yet based on a contrarian analysis of this data point. That’s because the previous “all in” bets by these managers didn’t exactly lead to disastrous results.

image

In fact, on a 3-week, 1-month and 6-month basis, the S&P 500 was higher each time following these >100% readings. And only this past July’s reading led to a negative 3-month return, barely.

So there certainly may be valid reasons to expect a pause in the enexorable Trump Rally, overexuberance by these NAAIM managers isn’t necesarily one of them.

*  *  *

More from Dana Lyons, JLFMI and My401kPro.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
order66's picture

26 P/E, 3x Book Value, Highest Price to Sales in history.

#mania

zvzzt's picture

no mate, this time it completely different! 

/sarc

OpTwoMistic's picture

Make all you can before Jan20. Then you best own PMs.

fx's picture

Right, looking at that table, one month from now looks like a good entry point to go short or to massively hegde any equity exposure. Which roughly matches with a "buy the rumour, sell the news" approach towards a Trump presidency. Unless, of course, the CIA manages to implement "regime change" at home this time, for a change. Pun intended.

swampmanlives's picture

Metrics are bound to change. Big data tells us we can make money off how many shits you take a day. Profit making is everywhere. Therefore the current P/E cannot be compared to past P/Es. And of course, the tech and bio tech stocks boost the p/e up. You have to take them out to be able to compare the current data to the past.

SomethingSomethingDarkSide's picture

Holy Haircutting Overstacked Trade Algos, Batman! 

They're fucked when Yen Carry unwinds!

NurseRatched's picture

That is a sure sign that the last available dollars will soon be sucked into this bubble. Prepare for the big pop! (Unless it is different this time.)

wisetrader224's picture
wisetrader224 (not verified) Dec 10, 2016 3:39 PM

Interesting article. It is a known fact that the common people/investors get in at the top.

 

Copied from someone else:

I see there are some smart traders here discussing  www.shepwave.com

 

Their past reports prove that they are correct over 95% of the time. And even when they do get into an aggressive trade they give stops that minimize any possible loss. NO ONE ELSE LIKE THEM.

 

Here is a post from below showing the proof from their very own charts which they put on their FB page at just how they have been calling every move in the markets.

 

I saw some people on here discussing the analysts at www.shepwave.com  Checked them out and they are legit.

 

Here are some charts they published last week which do prove they correctly call the market direction.

 

https://www.facebook.com/Stock-Market-Technical-Analysis-Elliott-Wave-Theory-166578775325/

 

 

 

FB post…showing QQQ chart from Dec 2nd

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/166578775325/photos/a.10153488951800326.1073741827.166578775325/10154303985890326/?type=3   

Dr.Carl's picture

Shepwave is the only analyst who is trustworthy. 

Dr.Carl's picture

The charts you show are PROOF! that they are the only good analyst left on Wall Street.

Sudden Debt's picture

I was at the club last night and one of my friends just bought 50 sigars and a humidor that is made just for those sigars for 360.000 euro's... the most I pay for my sigars is 40euro's for one and a good rum to go with it.

There's a lot of crazy money investments out there

 

buzzsaw99's picture

And, as his strength

Failed him at length,

He met a pilgrim shadow—

‘Shadow,’ said he,

‘Where can it be—

This land of Eldorado?’

‘Over the Mountains Of the Moon,

Down the Valley of the Shadow,

Ride, boldly ride...

Mtnrunnr's picture

Full retard. Time to move to cash.

Moe Hamhead's picture

If you can't fight it, ...join it!

whatamaroon's picture

Kramer's organ; "buy, buy, buy"

S Spade's picture

quatitative easing, err the fed funny money bail in skews the data in 2013 (and 2016)...wonder how the markets would react if 5 trillion dollars of support was suddenly sucked out...the monopoly money should rightfully be added to our national debt total until it's extracted from the markets never to be used again.  until then it will simply act as an inflation stimuli (inflating the value of stocks, keeping bond rates artificially low, and deflating the value of the money in your pocket/bank).

Vlad the Inhaler's picture

Record insider SELLING in financial stocks.

silverer's picture

This will work great. Just be ready to be the first one out the door. Short sellers: your bets are still risky, but oh will they be profitable if you hit it right!

pliny the longer's picture

reminds me of early part of evening of poker night;  sometimes you go all in just to steal the ante pot.  everybody knows what you are doing, but stakes are not high enough yet to call.  then, later on when you do it, its harder to tell if its for realz or just more schtick.  

 

 

Rich from PDT's picture

Why fight em' might as well get long too!

www.resurgencemedia.net

No Cucks, No Fags, No Weak White Men!

swampmanlives's picture

We are in a perma-bull era. S&P to over 9000.

Dr.Carl's picture

this really is good stuff. 

 

Interesting article. It is a known fact that the common people/investors get in at the top.

 

Copied from someone else:

I see there are some smart traders here discussing  www.shepwave.com

 

Their past reports prove that they are correct over 95% of the time. And even when they do get into an aggressive trade they give stops that minimize any possible loss. NO ONE ELSE LIKE THEM.

 

Here is a post from below showing the proof from their very own charts which they put on their FB page at just how they have been calling every move in the markets.

 

I saw some people on here discussing the analysts at www.shepwave.com  Checked them out and they are legit.

 

Here are some charts they published last week which do prove they correctly call the market direction.

 

https://www.facebook.com/Stock-Market-Technical-Analysis-Elliott-Wave-Theory-166578775325/

 

 

 

FB post…showing QQQ chart from Dec 2nd

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/166578775325/photos/a.10153488951800326.1073741827.166578775325/10154303985890326/?type=3   

hedgiex's picture

You need all to be sucked in before the invisible hand light the torch. 

LookingBack's picture

Ilon satellite Internet is best bet. In the end we will stay in touch only via satellites since fallout won't affect them much 

gm_general's picture

Ya gotta love this Dana Lyon's "reasoning". Its like saying I walked down this block several times in the last year, and I was only shot a few times, so I am probably safe now. Getting shot is getting shot, it only takes one time and its your last.

Snaffew's picture

The Fund Managers reaction to the recent market rally caught on tape...

https://video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?fr=yhs-iry-fullyhosted_003&hsi...

PS...never go full retard---never.  (one must move 47 and or 58 secs into the clip to receive the proper reaction