The Climate Changes Back – What Comes Next?

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man.com,

Surface Temperatures Plunge – the Great Pause Continues

Last year’s El Nino phenomenon temporarily provided succor to climate alarmists, who were increasingly bothered by the “Great Pause” – the fact that the tiny amount of warming experienced since the last cooling cycle ended in the late 1970s had apparently stopped. Despite trace amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere continuing to climb, mother nature decided to disobey alarmist models and temperatures went sideways for about 20 years (or even longer, depending on the data set).

 

Too bad penguins actually don’t live at the North Pole! One probably should refrain from obtaining climate information from rabidly leftist blogs. Incidentally, the same very same ice-floe has carried lost polar bears in the past, in particular the species “ursus bogus”. If one looks around a bit, there’s also a version with three penguins…

 

A raft of excuses was offered for this decidedly non-hockey stick behavior – by November 2014, there were 66 different “explanations” to choose from. So this is what “settled science” looks like: we “just know” that the economy must be burdened with onerous and expensive regulations and smothered in new taxes (including this recently proposed obscenity), in order to avert an allegedly man-made future catastrophe. And just to be safe, “climate deniers” should be jailed or killed. We know the future, but we cannot even explain what has happened in the recent past. As a reminder: not a single alarmist prediction on the climate has come true – it is a forecasting record completely unblemished by success for decades. Not even economists are that bad.

Last year the alarmists were bailed out by the El Nino phenomenon though – an extremely strong El Nino struck, quite possibly the strongest since records began. Newspaper headlines were blaring that we had just experienced the “hottest year ever” (note that the term “ever” is highly inappropriate in this context  – for most of the past 10,000 years temperatures were far warmer than today). Very few of these alarmist articles mentioned El Nino. There seemed to be a sense of great relief though – the great pause was over! Maybe there would be no need to further falsi… err, “adjust” past temperature data to create warming trends that never existed?

Alas, El Nino tends to be followed by La Nina. And this year, the steepest drop in global surface temperatures since satellite measurements began has taken place – surface temperatures have plunged by more than 1 degree centigrade (surely you remember all the breathless headlines in the mainstream media about that. No?). Note that we may still get headlines about 2016 being the “hottest year ever” though. It takes time for this massive cooling to affect the oceans, so sea temperatures will decline with a delay.

 

Mother Nature once again displays her contempt for alarmist climate models and sends surface temperatures careening lower at record speed post El Nino.

 

In short, the big pause is continuing. Note, we don’t doubt that there has been a warming trend since the end of the Little Ice Age, but the notion that human activity should be blamed for almost imperceptible climate fluctuations seems to be fundamentally flawed. The predictions of climate models forecasting rapid temperature increases have been consistently wrong as well, so maybe it is time for a rethink.

Admittedly, leads and lags are probably playing a role in this. The climate is a complex system and the time scales relevant to climate trends are undoubtedly quite large. Leads and lags represent a major problem for the “anthropogenic warming” theory though: ice core data show that CO2 levels have been leading temperatures in the past.

Mind, we are not complaining about the difficulties faced by climate scientists in attempting to forecast the climate or their failure to fully explain its  workings. After all, we aren’t complaining that physicists haven’t yet come up with the “grand unifying theory” either.

Our critique is focused on two related issues: 1. the false assertion that the science is “settled” and that no-one should be allowed to question its assertions and 2. the politicization of this branch of science, in particular the drive to impose regulations and taxes that are highly damaging to economic growth and capital accumulation, which would be dubious even if the evidence were less flimsy.

In fact, this strikes us as positively dangerous on many levels – far more dangerous than the alleged threat from rising temperatures. Inter alia it could well deprive us of the capital that may one day be needed to combat real threats. As an example, consider a large asteroid hurtling toward earth. At the moment, it is uncertain if we would be able to stop it. Only continued economic progress can get us to the point at which we can be fairly certain that such threat can be successfully met.

 

More Good News

As an aside, you may be relieved to hear that not only won’t we be burnt to a crisp anytime soon, but the number of hurricanes has plunged as well. As of  November 2016, US hurricanes are at the lowest level since 1954, continuing a trend that has been underway for quite a while. As a reminder, global tropical cyclone frequency has suffered a similar fate. So much for the much-bemoaned surge in extreme weather events due to climate change. Maybe global CO2 output should be boosted?

 

The black line shows the US tornado count of 2016 – it has just undercut the previous minimum since records began in 1954 – click to enlarge.

 

How can this be happening? We were supposed to be doomed! If this surfeit of good news on the climate continues, it will threaten to derail a major gravy train. It may even briefly interrupt the steady march toward de-civilization propagated by assorted globalist institutions, which is already under mild threat from deplorables around the world casting their votes the wrong way. Someone call George Soros, maybe he can at least buy us some bad weather (his recent purchases left a lot to be desired).

 

Conclusion

As we have pointed out in “The End is Nigh”, predictions of imminent global doom have been with us since at least 2800 BC –  the earliest recorded instance of such a forecast, scratched into an Akkadian or Sumerian stone tablet. Predicting the end of the world on account of humanity’s sinful behavior has always been a good business (though never as well-paid as it is today).

Expert predictions have failed with alarming frequency lately. Just consider what has happened in 2016 alone. First the absolutely certain US rate hike cycle failed to materialize. Then UK citizens voted for “Brexit”, which experts assured us would never happen.

Thereafter Mr. Trump – who according to experts didn’t stand even the slightest chance of winning the election – somehow became president of the US, an event that has left snowflakes catatonic in their safe spaces across the world. And now global surface temperatures have plunged faster in a single year than at any time since satellite measurements began, taking back the El Nino spike  – and the dreaded warming pause is back.

This is getting scary. Maybe global warming has caused all these things? The Lord knows, it is responsible for nearly everything else. One wonders what horrors are going to raise their head next. Will global peace break out?

Charts via Wattsupwiththat

*  *  *

Addendum: A Blast from the Distant Past

While scouring the interwebs for information and links we could use in this post, we came across an AP report published by the Washington Post. At first glance it is nothing special – pretty much the usual alarmism, garnished with anecdotes and dire warnings from experts. We have highlighted the scariest parts:

“The Arctic Ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consulate at Bergen Norway. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone.

 

Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.

 

Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds. Within a few years it is predicted that due to the ice melt the sea will rise and make most coastal cities uninhabitable.

(emphasis added)

So what makes this report special? Only one thing: The Washington Post published it on November 2 1922 – 94 years ago.

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nuubee's picture

They have successfully convinced large swaths of the population to be afraid of the weather, and throw their money at politicians to fix it. The science hardly matters in this case, the political damage is done and the next step is authoritarianism in some form.

J S Bach's picture

Global Warming is lunacy on parade. Ignore all of the pinko propaganda.

Looney's picture

 

Al Gore was born with (1) a silver spork in his mouth and (2) a broomstick up his ass.

His “global warming” shtick was/is just an extension of the GLOBALIZATION.

Fuck him and the anorexic Polar Bear he rode in on.   ;-)

Looney   ;-)

NoDebt's picture

He also made a billion dollars for himself selling his shit 'Current' TV netowork to Al Jazeera, which means he made his wealth courtesy of the oil industry.  Somehow, even being a climate change true-believer, he sees no hipocrisy in that (libs never see their own hipocrisy).

Stainless Steel Rat's picture

I don't buy this BS.  Make your own maps of the data.  It doesn't match this at all. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/

Manthong's picture

Crap.

I was so looking forward to my 42 degree N Latitude getting the climate of 25 degrees North.

auricle's picture

Looks like the chemtrails are working. 

Ghost of Porky's picture

Poor penguins! Where do I type in my credit card info?

Yog Soggoth's picture

I think you send it to the same scum who kidnap penguins from the South Pole to study in a concrete pool in Florida, and charge admission to morons that believe they are environmentalists. The reason they pretend penguins live at the North Pole is that it is closer to America, thus flood here first. The targeted audience would surely not understand that the oceans are connected.

knukles's picture

I call bullshit on 36 degrees above normal
We've seen the same claims many times before and the Arctic and Antarctica are still there (and expanding). 

All Part of the NWO Control Your Shit Program.

The Saint's picture

Oh, there is global warming alright.  But, it is the inter-glacial warm period we are lucky enough to be in.  Little ol' human beings have absolutely nothing to do with global warming or climate change.  It is due to solar cycles and a few other other changes/cycles that we have absolutely no control over.

But.... There is a change coming.  It seems there is evidence that the Sun is limping along to another solar minimum. Something like the Maunder Minimum that occured a few hundred years ago.  Right after the Midevil Warm Period (which was warmer than it is now, btw).

So, in sum, the global climate is always changing.  We are fortunate to be in an inter-glacial period the last ten thousand years but it may be about over.  First, we'll see how much cooling occurs in the next few decades and see if it is the beginning of another ice age or just another century or two of cooling that will revert back to the inter-glacial warming. (yes there is evidence that the glacial periods can change from warm to cold in just a decade or two once it starts. And, glacial periods last tens of thousands of years.  Much longer than inter-glacial warm periods.)

Either way, we are getting toward the end of this inter-glacial warm period (on a geological scale, of course).   This could be the end of human growth and the beginning of human contraction coming this century or we may have another thousand years or so before that happens.  Nobody knows exactly when the big chill will happen.  So, let's hope we keep hearing about global warming because that means many of us are not about to die in our lifetimes in the incredible cold that is, one day, coming.

Cruel Aid's picture

Thats what it is, weather <lol> the useful idiots know it or not

and the 1922 post article is too great, take that idiots. I think the post or the times was posting 6 million jews exterminated a few years before this. and we read fake news, lmao, too good.

nmewn's picture

Yeah, penguins living at the North Pole, seemingly "stranded" on an iceberg was a little "visually" over-the-top too.

But what the hell, its the Daily Kos...lmao!!!

Holy hand grenade of Antioch's picture

Wait!

 

We need WaPo to 'officially' chime in on the matter & clear this mees up once & for all!

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/five-myths-about-the-north-pole/...

ThirdWorldDude's picture

They're not penguins, they're "climate refugees"...

Holy hand grenade of Antioch's picture

If they like to get fucked by donkeys ~ Let em in!

Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

Beware gubmint data.

Beware gubmint anything.

gmak's picture

NASA 'adjusts' the data. In fact they have done it three times retroactively since 1998 (IIRC).  If you take out the adjustments (done by people) it correlates 98% with the measured CO2 increase.  Can you say "fudge"?

 

How do we know this? Because researchers have gone back looking for published data - which can not be adjusted like electronic data - and they have seen the upward adjustments of the same years' data, multiple times. 

 

One individual has backed out the adjustments to get the original raw data back, and then graphed just the adjustments against CO2 increases. Funny that there is such a high degree of correlation between the two when the adjustments are made manually. What do you think they were up to there?

VZ58's picture

Keep believing! Maybe you can move to Buffalo and experience the coming Caribbean climate there? Like I said...keep believing. It's like your dream that a recount will get you Hillary as prez. 

BennyBoy's picture

 

I'd like the planet to warm up a bit and have more CO2.

Longer growing season and lots of CO2 for more food growth.

Holy hand grenade of Antioch's picture

Up to a certain point... At some point, one also has to consider ocean currents...

 

I'm not smart enough to know what the tipping point is, but I will say this:

 

I'd like fucking hack scientists, politicians, & profiteers to stay the fuck out out of it & just let nature take it's course...

 

Hell ~ I'm still 'ALL FOR' the GIANT METEOR!

TeamDepends's picture

Comrades, come to Kalifornia now as we are constructing utopia before we secede. The penalty for climate change denial will be death, and we will guarantee Abortion On Demand. Why should your Satan-given RIGHT to abortion end at birth? You told your son to stop hitting his sister a million times, so why not abort? Here is a tidbit from a brother comrade in Portland OR from our beloved mouthpiece dailykos from today:
"Where I live, there’s a brand new Planned Parenthood a mile north of me, and there’s a pot shop a mile south. "*
See comrade, in our utopia you can wake up, abort, and be stoned out of your gourd by noon. So hurry, let's make the Left Coast a Trump-free zone before it is too late!
*Actual snippet of dailykos comment

TeamDepends's picture

Ahaha!!! Zoomed straight down to comments, didn't see this was dailykos! AHAHAHAHA!!!

waterwitch's picture

Soon we'll be calling it Goldman Warming.

ebworthen's picture

Time for "Jurrasic Park - Wooly Mammoth Edition!".

USisCorrupt's picture

It's all about Planet X many don't realize the Pole Shift is taking place. Soon very soon even the non believers will believe.

Look in the sky if you have any doubt.

Every CLEAR day 3pm to sunset just to the right of the Sun if you live north of the equator.

There is so little we actually do know and understand.

Think! Why do those in control have a problem with giving up their control?

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"Every CLEAR day 3pm to sunset just to the right of the Sun if you live north of the equator."

I prefer not to stare at the sun, or even right next to the sun.

On another note, are you saying Planet X is in a perfect orbit around the sun such that we always see Planet X in the same place relative to the sun?

Raymond K Hessel's picture

I think that's what he's saying. 

I'm thinking he's a looney tune.

BigJim's picture

What the fuck are you talking about?

VZ58's picture

Yes, please stare at the sun each day (when it is out I guess). Stare at it deeply and intensely. Directly. Do not look away. Look right at it. Not left or right. Right at it. Stare some more. Keep staring. You will be wise soon...

Nunyadambizness's picture

Al Gore did NOT invent the Internet.  He invented global warming.

silvertrain's picture

 I thought he invented the oldsmobile...

VZ58's picture

I thought it was "real Corninthian leather"?

wildbad's picture

jeepers, first climategate, then the EPA appointment and now this. i'm gonna have to sell all my greenpeace..i mean exxon stock.

Ignatius's picture

Traditional, formal religion has been killed, but it's a handy control technique, so they need a new one.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Faith and Belief in whatever form can be swallowed by, or forced upon, the masses.

Nunyadambizness's picture

Anthropogenic global warming (aka "climate change") is no less a religion than Christianity.  You can't debate someone who believes their religion, no matter how hard you try.  Trying to convince a global warmer that their ideas are bullshit and lies will only get you tagged as a "denier" by the true believers.  Those in power who are leading the charge will make the same claim, but recognize that this is only a power and money grab in the guise of a crisis calamity, and just smile to themselves as they hear their true believers (aka "Useful idiots") harp on about our impending doom.

kellys_eye's picture

Perfectly true and we must also bear in mind the nutjobs that religion has 'created' that are hell bent on destroying modern civilisation.... i.e. the warmists/evironmentalists.

junction's picture

By talking about the weather and climate change as enemies, the propaganda gurus have shifted attention from our real enemies, the murdering criminals who rule over us.  Andrew Breitbart promises to embarrass the Clinton crime family, the next thing you know he is dead suddenly, followed soon after by the pathologist who handled Breitbart's autopsy.  That pathologist learned the hard way that his phone conversations were also monitored, that the metada the NSA and others hoovers up from all phone conversations can be converted to audio in a flash.  Dead men tell no tales.  Meanwhile, groper extraordinary Al Gore, the guy with at least 8 mansions, most empty all year round, is coming out with a sequel on his junk science take on global warming. 

Rainman's picture

Cali drivers have been overcharged $2 billion for gas due to the crap and tax hoax

http://bates.cssrc.us/content/cap-and-trade-costing-drivers-2-billion-higher-gas-prices

gmak's picture

You mean the rest of "us" taking cabs have been overcharged.

Twee Surgeon's picture

A few days ago the Pacific N.W. was going to be 20-30 degrees colder than usual and a mega blizzard was on the way. We had an inch of snow.

Perhaps they will stop spraying all that shit in the sky now ? Wifeoid says they have got people trained to run out and stock up for the emergencies, they do that.

The weather seems to do the opposite of the official declaration so at least it will warm up a little now. With that and a little extra CO2 it could be a great year for the gardners.

A. Boaty's picture

Do you know what part of the electromagnetic spectrum warms the Earth's surface? Do you know how the Earth's surface radiates heat into deep space? Do you know how the Earth's atmosphere traps some of the heat so we don't freeze? Do you know how changing the mix of atmospheric gases changes the atmosphere's ability to trap heat?

Those who want to have an informed opinion with respect to the climate debate should have a ready answer for these questions.

BigJim's picture

 Do you know what part of the electromagnetic spectrum warms the Earth's surface? Do you know how the Earth's surface radiates heat into deep space? Do you know how the Earth's atmosphere traps some of the heat so we don't freeze? Do you know how changing the mix of atmospheric gases changes the atmosphere's ability to trap heat?

Yes. (there you go!)

What's at question isn't whether an increase of CO2, ceteris paribus, will mean the earth's temperature will rise; it's the degree to which all the other incredibly complex factors moderate this... and whether it's cheaper to prevent the damage by limiting fossil fuel use (almost certainly not) or deal with the ill-effects when - or, more to the point, if - they occur, far off in the future when technology will be better and the human race almost certainly be richer and more easily capable of dealing with any "problems" than we are now.

A. Boaty's picture

I guess you don't live in a coastal area.

Yog Soggoth's picture

I put a comment on a NOAAH bloga couple of years back simply stating that a tectonic shift in the seafloor can put more CO2 into the atmosphere than all the emissions since the model A. Someone was paying attention. 8 months later they did a study that confirmed what I already knew, yet still clung to the lie that man can effect the world climate (other than clear cutting all the trees) for the political agenda. Funny thing about CO2 coming from the seabed after tremors is that is undetectable unless you have a boat right over the exact spot where the gas comes up. and that is impossible because it generally stays in the colder water at higher concentrations and only gets released into the atmosphere at lower latitudes. This means that while stored as carbolic acid it may take some time from the initial release from sediments to reach the atmosphere, and where is anyones guess. The only reason NOAAH even admitted my obvious flaw in their paid for thesis is because of the massive piles of sub sea floor data. Read a book on geology of the Gulf of Mexico when I was 8, and most of the data cited actually came from test cores by the oil industry in the 50's and 60's. Now we have more data saying the same thing from all over the world.

jmack's picture

Fake news: this guy probably doesnt even wear a bow tie, and he certainly never had a TV show with "science guy" in the title...so what are his credentials?

drendebe10's picture

"Scientific consensus" at one time was the earth was flat & the earth was the center of the earth  .