Is Obama Setting-Up War With Russia By 'Unraveling' The Situation In Syria?

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Eric Zuesse via,

A 12 August 2012 U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency warning that the Obama Administration’s strategy might drive ISIS from Mosul in Iraq to Der Zor in Syria, is now being actually carried out as a plan instead of a warning — a plan to weaken and ultimately oust Syria’s non-sectarian President Bashar al-Assad and replace him with a Sunni Sharia-law regime (one led by jihadists). The DIA warning had called this scenario an “unraveling,” but Obama and the U.S. Congress are now actually choosing it, so as to set the incoming President Trump up with an opportunity to replace Assad’s government by one that the Sauds and their U.S.-made weapons will control

The DIA warning in 2012 had said: 


Whoever wrote this assessment recognized that though the option would mean an “unraveling” of Syria, it’s what the U.S. and its allies were actually seeking.

On September 17th, U.S. and UK jets bombed the compound of Syrian government troops who were fighting to oust jihadists from Deir Ezzor (or “Der Zor”), and killed 62 Syrian soldiers, with a hundred more injured, in that U.S.-led bombing attack. Der Zor was being softened-up for the coming U.S.-and-allied takeover.

The brilliant anonymous military blogger “Moon of Alabama” then became the first reporter to notice the possible connection that the DIA’s warning might end up having to what is now the joint U.S.-Turkish-Iraqi operation against ISIS in Mosul; he headlined on 20 September 2016, “Deir Ezzor Attack Enables The ‘Salafist Principality’ As Foreseen In The 2012 DIA Analysis”, and he wrote:

“Two recent attacks against the Syrian Arab Army in east-Syria point to a U.S. plan to eliminate all Syrian government presence east of Palmyra. This would enable the U.S. and its allies to create a ‘Sunni entity’ in east-Syria and west-Iraq which would be a permanent thorn in side of Syria and its allies [Russia and Iran]. A 2012 analysis by the Defense Intelligence Agency said” — and he then quoted the above DIA excerpt. 

Then on October 12th, he bannered “The ’Salafist Principality’ — ISIS Paid Off To Leave Mosul And To Take Deir Ezzor?”, and reported that the Obama Administration had just negotiated with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, and with Saudi Prince Salman (who is the decision-maker in Saudi military matters), to provide safe passage into the large Syrian city of Deir Es Zor, for the ISIS jihadists who were occupying the large city of Mosul in Iraq.

He cited also a tweet on the morning of October 12th, from the celebrated Syrian historian and journalist Nizar Nayouf, reporting: “Breaking news: Sources in #London say: #US&#Saudi_Arabia concluded an agreement to let #ISIS leave #Mosul secretly & safely to #Syria.”

Furthermore, on October 15th, the Turkish government posted online a map showing the “‘Sensitive’ Operation Plan for Mosul” including six steps, one of which was “An escape corridor into Syria will be left for Daesh [ISIS] so they can vacate Mosul.” Though the U.S. government wasn’t public about this part of the plan — moving the jihadists “into Syria” instead of killing the jihadists (as Obama always claimed to be his intention) — the Turkish government was.

Slightly beyond Der Zor is Palmyra — another Syrian city that the U.S.-Saudi alliance want to grab.

On December 11th, Russian Television headlined “4,000 ISIS fighters regroup, make new attempt to capture Palmyra”, and reported that:

“Over 4,000 Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) terrorists, reinforced by tanks, have started an offensive to retake the key Syrian city of Palmyra after regrouping themselves. … The terrorists have received considerable reinforcement, including heavy military hardware from the regions of Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor. …The terrorists are receiving support from jihadists coming from Iraq. … In October, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned that terrorists ‘could flee from Mosul and go to Syria.’”

That’s precisely what is now happening.

So: the Obama Administration seems to be making considerable progress to set up the next U.S. President, Trump, with an “unraveling” situation in Syria, so as to enable Trump to continue Obama’s war against Russia and all its allies (such as Syria).

Whether President Trump will continue Obama’s policy isn’t yet clear.

*  *  *

Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author, most recently, of  They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of  CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity

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LetThemEatRand's picture

I've been hiding in a bunker for several years because of the obvious threat to America that Syria poses.

One of We's picture

I heard Alleppo just "fell" to the Syrian government so you better keep your head down.  No telling what sort of assault they may launch on the US now that they aren't distracted with conquering one of their own cities.

Keyser's picture

Whether President Trump will continue Obama’s policy isn’t yet clear.

Trump has been quite clear on his intentions regarding Syria, ISIS and Russia... WTF are you on about? 

Nemontel's picture

Most people who voted for him would prefer an isolationist "America First" foreign policy.

AVmaster's picture

Unraveling? What unraveling?

Aleppo is firmly in the legitimate government hands. Which also means that the legitimate government is not going anywhere.


So what if ISIS took palmyra, purely symbolic and they lost ALOT of guys taking the place.


Now that the battle for aleppo is over, the retaking of palmyra will most certainly begin along with the corridor to der ez zor and all points east.



Manthong's picture

It seems pretty clear that the US green-lighted the >100 km dash of ISIL from both Raqqa and Mosul to recapture Palmyra in order to divert attention or Syrian resources from the liberation of Aleppo.

They could have wiped out the long convoys with A-10’s and F-16’s in a heartbeat.

There is no way they were not aware and/or complicit of the mass movements.

I smell war crimes here... again.


letsit's picture
letsit (not verified) Manthong Dec 14, 2016 4:06 AM

The neocons are setting these things up. They're mental.

tazs's picture
tazs (not verified) letsit Dec 14, 2016 4:07 AM

They also better understand that Russia bites back.

tazs's picture
tazs (not verified) tazs Dec 14, 2016 4:07 AM

And hard.

two hoots's picture

I call this article BS.  Obama/Kerry were out maneuvered and lost the advantage, this article is a cover for them. Russia/Assad chose to escalate without regard to world opinion (UN) and it is working.  They will continue their purge to regain control of their country/interest.


philipat's picture

Dear letsit, tazs, techies-r-us, stizazz, lock-stock, beauticelli, Mano-A-Mano, mofio, santafe, Aristotle of Greece, Gargoyle, bleu, oops, lance-a-lot, Loftie, toro, Yippee Kiyay, lonnng, Nekoti, SumTing Wong, King Tut, Adullam, espirit, rp2016, Holy hand grenade of Antioch, One of these is not like the others, amongst many others, I wonder why you continue to talk to yourself? When you use honest disclosure in the link to your Biblicism Institute site (Even though the site has no connection whatsoever to your comments) I will  not respond with a SPAM alert. So there is no need to talk to yourself to prevent my SPAM alert appearing right below your fake links. Unless you see the need to congratulate and/or reassure yourself on your clever comments, knowing that nobody else will? Alternatively, it can only mean you are seriously mentally ill. Talking to yourself is not good; you MUST remember to take your meds.

Escapeclaws's picture

Sometimes it almost seems like WWIII would be worth it just to kill off the neo-Bolsheviks. (Not really but it would be so nice if they could all be jettisoned into outerspace or perhaps into the sun instead of ending life on earth in WWIII just to get rid of them.)


Manthong's picture

It was a hoot to watch the RT split screen of US State spokeshill Kirby pleading ignorance of any liberation celebrations in Aleppo on one side while video of joyous crowds of Syrians were jumping up and down on the other side.


How do you spell “Baghdad Bob”?



NoDebt's picture

OK, bitchez, it's time.  Time to party.  As I promised... It's time for the first annual (and probably last annual) ZH party, as I stupidly shot my mouth off about before the election.  My God, am I going to regret doing this...

Note to the Tylers- I will in no way use the Zero Hedge name, logo, likeness, copyrighted materials nor in any way affiliate this event with Zero Hedge or ABC Media in any way.  Crossing fingers this passes muster with you.  Understood if it doesn't.  (By the way, you're invited, too.)

I'd like to invite ALL ZH members in good standing who've been around for a while to a little get-together, hosted by yours truly, at a local watering hole not far from me (read: dive bar with a party room in back).  Just some drinks and some conversation with other ZH members in good standing who have been registered here for more than 6 months.  We're gonna be cool about this and act like gentlepeople with eachother.  This is NOT 'Fight Club'.  This will be, hopefully, a mellow chill-out and hang-out event.  If you're a psycho or an SJW looking for an outlet, don't come, it will be a total waste of your time.

Where:  Don't know yet, but somewhere near where I live, which is right on the PA/DE line about half way between Philly, PA and Wilmington, DE.

When:  Late January, early February after the holiday party rush has calmned down.  A lot of this depends on how many people show legit interest in attending.   

Who:  ZH members in good standing for at least 6 months.  I'm just going by ZH screeen names.  I don't want to know your real name, I don't care, I'm not going to ask you to reveal your real name unless you want to.  Anonymity will be preserved to the extent possible.  Expect no miracles.

I have to gauge interest in this because I got no idea how many people might want to come, which will determine a lot of the other arrangements.  There will be no band, there will be no DJ, there will be no baloons, there will be just us and our mutual interest in shooting the shit with other ZH members for a few hours.  If that's not enough for you, this is probably not your kind of party.  So, if you would be interested in attending and have a realistic shot at showing up in the area round about that timeframe, please send me an email with your ZH screen name and something indicating you have a human brain in your head (i.e. you're not a spam-bot) and I'll keep you informed of the plans via email.

Time/Location not to your liking?  Tough shit.  Worried about the black helicopters showing up mid-party?  Tough shit, I got not a damned thing to do with that.  I'm just a regular guy like you- I don't control the world.  It's just a party and you're invited.  You can make it or you can't.  Hope you can.  So here's the email to get in touch, God help me:

I'll post this up a few more times in a few more threads over the next few days but not to the point I piss off the Tylers any more than the "My mother in law earns $12,00 a month working part time on on her computer over the internet" guys does.  
LetThemEatRand's picture

Awesome idea, Nodebt.  I'm in Florida and I doubt I'll be able to make it, but I hope you get a semi-local great turnout.  I'm imagining Toby Keith's vision of "I love this bar."

NoDebt's picture

A promise is a primomise, no matter how stupid I was to make it.  You're the kind of ZH member I was hoping to get for this event.  Sorry it's just too far to make it.  I understand.

NoDebt's picture

You can come dressed as a 'furry' for all I care as long as you're at least a 6 month ZH member in good standing.  

flaminratzazz's picture

yeah about that.. "good standing" --after 3 banned accounts.. lol  I am fine!!

IridiumRebel's picture

Tell me the bar and I'll sport a round for the attendees.
This becomes annual I'll come next year as my cousins live in Wilmington.

NoDebt's picture

If this becomes an annual thing I'm going to have to shoot myself in the head.  Just show up for this if you can manage it.  There are zero guarantees about how this turns out.  I'm probably still going to be doing time in the state pen (or a FEMA camp) for this one a year from now.


CheapBastard's picture

I wish I lived closer. I used to live in Phili near 9th and Walnut (maybe it was 10th) but then I lost all my limbs due to frost bite so I moved as far south as the law would allow me. But it's a very solid idea.

It would certainly be fun to meet more Deplorables and infidels to exchange ideas. You're very thooughtful to think of it.

brockhardman's picture

Any cool pizza places around there? Preferably one with a basement.

Holy hand grenade of Antioch's picture
Holy hand grenade of Antioch (not verified) brockhardman Dec 14, 2016 12:38 AM

Is there gonna be a math question?

detached.amusement's picture

I had an actual slice of cheese pizza yesterday, I wanted more than just 2 slices and said ah what the hell, I havent seen these people make cheese in quite a while.  I actually could not even enjoy it.  thanks, pizzagate!  *flips bird*

LetThemEatRand's picture

Kudos for trying to make this happen and I wish I had the flexibility to commit.  Keep us posted.  

Omen IV's picture

so Naked Capitalism has hosted these events from tme to time regionally

I usually go to the NYC event typically in the East Village - while Philly would be interesting I think a regional approach would allow greater participation

press guys with ideas show up and a variety of personalities - so I'm not in charge but a thought to the organizers

plenty of bars / saloons with the same layout you speak of

NoDebt's picture

I, and this event, have nothing to do with Naked Capitalism (or Zero Hedge or, frankly, anything else you could name).  I'm just a guy who's been around ZH a while and is crazy enough to try doing and event like this just to hang out with some of my ZH bretheren for a while.  I'm already regretting it.  ;)


813kml's picture

Just wait till Fonestar shows up and tries to pay for his Appletini with bitcoin.

NoDebt's picture

<shudder>  That's.... a very disturbing thought.  He was banned, right?  Oh, God, please tell me he was banned.


813kml's picture

One of his many accounts were banned but who knows what the cat might drag in.  :-)

I commend your youthful enthusiasm and hope the strippers' G-strings can withstand the weight of silver and gold.

Holy hand grenade of Antioch's picture
Holy hand grenade of Antioch (not verified) 813kml Dec 14, 2016 12:41 AM

Better make it a nighttime affair. fonestar hasn't seen the light of day in 5 years from his mom's basement and he might go blind if he sees the sun.

detached.amusement's picture

for some reason I had the scene of "the truth about masturbation" from kentucky fried movie in my head there, but I dint click the nerd link.  yet.

putaipan's picture

close. but still too far. enjoy gang.

One of We's picture

A bit far from Alaska for me but I know a few souls of like mind who scored tickets to the inauguration who will be out east that week.....

Wild Theories's picture

hopefully black helicopters will show up

it would be a disappointment if that didn't happen


"I once went to a party where we tossed dwarf strippers"

"I once went to a part where we watched live furry porn"

"I once went to a party where the whole party got arrested by federal agents roping down from black helicopters"


Chupacabra-322's picture

Can't wait to meet Million Dollar Bonus.

Mr. Pain's picture

Does that mean your bringing a knife? 

indaknow's picture

You're a brave soul. I hope it goes well. 

NoDebt's picture

I hope it does, too.  I'm just too old to believe in hope.  Somehow, this will go bad.  I don't know why, but it will.  You'll probably want to be there to witness it's failure.


indaknow's picture

Let us know if MDB is showing up, I'm sure you'll have a full house. 

NoDebt's picture

Here's the crazy thing... if MDB wanted to come, he would be completely welcome and I'd make sure he felt that way if he did show up.  He meets the minimal criteria.  Doesn't take any more than that.  And I have a feeling, in person, he'd actually be a blast to hang out with, despite his trolling-style posts on ZH.

detached.amusement's picture

It takes some effort to troll like that, it really does...

Mustafa Kemal's picture

Hello, Im Mustafa Kemal. Good to meet you friend.

Man, I would love it . Nice idea.