Janet Yellen Explains How Dovish Her Rate Hike Is - Fed Press Conference Live Feed

Tyler Durden's picture

Just as Mario Draghi exlained how his reduced bond buying was not a taper, we suspect the narrative espoused by Janet Yellen in her press conference today will be just how dovish this rate hike is.. and how the rate of normalization will be very gradual. The big question is, how will she respond to question about Trump's fiscal stimulus plan? Of course, this also may be her last flourish as Fed head, so anything goes.

Live Feed:

 

The following is an excerpt of Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen's opening statement at her press conference following Wednesday afternoon's Federal Open Market Committee statement:

We expect the economy will continue to perform well, with the job market strengthening further and inflation rising to 2 percent over the next couple of years. I'll have more to say about monetary policy shortly. But first, I'll review recent economic developments in the outlook. Economic growth has picked up since the middle of the year. Household spending continues to rise at a moderate pace, supported by income gains and by relatively high levels of consumer sentiment and wealth. Business investment, however, remains soft, despite some stabilization in the energy sector.

 

Overall, we expect the economy will expand at a moderate pace over the next few years. Job gains, averaged nearly 180,000 per month over the past three months, maintaining the solid pace that we have seen since the beginning of the year. Over the past 7 years, since the depths of the great recession, more than 15 million jobs have been added to the U.S. economy. The unemployment rate fell to 4.6 percent in November, the lowest level since 2007, prior to the recession. Broader measures of labor market slack have also moved lower, and participation in the labor force has been little changed on net for about two years now, a further sign of improved conditions in the labor market given the underlying downward trend in participation stemming largely from the aging of the U.S. population. Looking ahead. We expect the job conditions will from strengthen further. Turning to inflation, the 12 month change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures was nearly one and a half percent in October. Still short of our 2 percent objective, but up more than a percentage point from a year earlier.

 

Core inflation which excludes energy and food prices that tend to be more volatile than other prices, has risen to one and three-quarters percent. As the transitory influences of earlier declines in energy prices and prices of imports continue to fade, and as the job market strengthens further we expect overall inflation to rise to 2 percent over the next couple of years. Our inflation outlook rests importantly on our judgment that longer run inflation expectations remain reasonably well anchored. Market based measures of inflation compensation have moved up considerably, but are still low. Survey based measures of longer run inflation expectations are on balance little changed. Of course, we remain committed to our 2 percent inflation objective, and will continue to carefully monitor actual and expected progress towards this goal. Let me now turn to the economic projections that were submitted for this meeting by committee participants. As always, they condition their projections on their own individual views of appropriate monetary policy, which in turn depend on each participant's assessment of the multitude of factors that shape the outlook.

 

The median projection for growth of inflation adjusted gross domestic product rises from 1.9 percent this year to 2.1 percent in 2017, and stays close to 2 percent in 2018 and 2019, slightly above its estimated longer run rate. The median projection for the unemployment rate stands at 4.7 percent in the fourth quarter of this year. Over the next three years, the median unemployment rate runs at 4.5 percent, modestly below the median estimate of its longer run normal rate. Finally, the median inflation projection is 1.5 percent this year, and rises to 1.9 percent next year, and 2 percent in 2018 and  2019. Overall, these economic projections are very similar to those made in September. GDP growth is a touch stronger. The unemployment rate is a shade lower. And inflation beyond this year is unchanged. Returning to monetary policy, the committee judged that a modest increase in the federal funds rate is appropriate in light of the solid progress we have seen toward our goals of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. We continue to expect that the evolution of the economy will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate over time, to achieve and maintain our objectives, that is based on our view that the neutral nominal federal funds rate, that is the interest rate that is neither expansionary nor contraction airy and keeps the economy operating on a even keel is currently quite low by historical standards. With the federal funds rate only modestly below the neutral rate, we continue to expect that gradual increases in the federal funds rate will likely be sufficient to get to a neutral policy stance over the next few years.

 

This view is consistent with participants' projections of appropriate monetary policy. The median projection for the federal funds rate rises the 1.4 percent at the end of next year, 2.1 percent at the end of 2018, and 2.9 percent by the end of 2019. Compared with the projections made in September, the median path for the federal funds has been revised up just a quarter of a percentage point. Only a few participants altered their estimate of the longer run normal federal funds rate, although the median edged up to 3 percent. Of course, the economic outlook is highly uncertain, and participants will adjust their assessments of the appropriate path for the federal funds rate in response to changes to the economic outlook and associated risks. As many observers have noted, changes in fiscal policy or other economic policies could potentially affect the economic outlook. Of course, it is far too early to know how these policies will unfold. Moreover, changes in fiscal policy are only one of the many factors that can influence the outlook and the appropriate course of monetary policy. In making our policy decisions, we will continue as always to assess economic conditions relative to our objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. As I've noted on previous occasions, policy is not on a preset course.

 

Finally, we will continue to reinvest proceeds from maturing treasury securities and principal payments from agency debt and mortgage backed securities. As our statement says, we anticipate continuing this policy until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. Thank you. I'll be happy to take your questions.

* * *

And here are the key highlights from her speech as they come:

  • YELLEN: EXPECT ECONOMY WILL CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL
  • YELLEN: BIZ INVESTMENT REMAINS SOFT DESPITE ENERGY STABILIZING
  • YELLEN:INFL OUTLOOK RESTS ON INFL EXPECT REMAINING WELL ANCHOR
  • YELLEN: MODEST FFR INCREASE APPROP IN LIGHT OF SOLID PROGRESS
  • YELLEN: CURRENT FFR ONLY MODESTLY BELOW NEUTRAL RATE
  • YELLEN: ECON OUTLOOK 'IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN'
  • YELLEN: TOO EARLY TO JUDGE HOW FISCL POL WILL AFFECT OUTLOOK
  • YELLEN: ONLY VERY MODEST ADJUST IN DOT PLOT'S MEDIAN FFR PATH
  • YELLEN: UNEMPL RATE 'TOUCH LOWER' THAN SEEN IN PROJECTIONS
  • YELLEN: SOME PARTICIPANTS MAY HAVE FACTORED IN FISCAL POL CHNG
  • YELLEN: DOESNT WANT TO SPECULATE ON FISCAL POL IMPACT ON RATES
  • YELLEN: RATE HIKE 'IS A VOTE OF CONFIDENCE IN THE ECONOMY'
  • YELLEN: CHARACTERIZES DEGREE OF ACCOMMODATION AS 'MODERATE'
  • YELLEN: FOMC IS NOT BEHIND THE CURVE
  • YELLEN: MANY THINGS CONGRESS NEEDS TO CONSIDER ON FISCAL POL
  • YELLEN: FED STAFF BEEN IN TOUCH WITH TRUMP TRANSITION TEAM
  •  YELLEN: MKT MOVES IMPLICIT FORECAST OF LIKELY FISCAL IMPACT
  • YELLEN: PARTIC UNCERTAIN ABOUT IMPACT OF FISCAL POL ON MARKETS
  • YELLEN: LABOR MKT LOOKS LIKE IT DID BEFORE RECESSION
  • YELLEN: NORMAL AMOUNT OF SLACK IN LBR MKT, CLOSE TO FULL EMPL
  • YELLEN: DO INTEND TO SERVE OUT FOUR YEAR TERM AS CHAIR
  • YELLEN: NO DECISION ABOUT STAYING IF NOT REAPPOINTED AS CHAIR
  • YELLEN: STOCK MKT MAY HAVE BEEN BOOSTED BY EXPCTN OF FISCL POL
  • YELLEN: WONT OFFER A VIEW ON WHETHER EQUITY PRICES APPROPRIATE
  • YELLEN: FAIR TO SAY STOCK MARKET REMAIN IN NORMAL RANGES

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Bill of Rights's picture

Wipe that smirk off your face asshole...

BaBaBouy's picture

She's Fresh Fresh.&. Exciting... DaDa DaDaDa ......

nibiru's picture

Oh, she is smiling because she has big shoes to fill after Ben Bernanke and his 2002 plan. The market has already calculated any possible rate hike in. No one will be surprised now.

BaBaBouy's picture

USD Paper Fiats Into The Clouds ...

Jobs Into the Bunghole ...

Ehh, butt what do the .01% Elitists Care Anyway...

Aaronson.Jones.Rutherford's picture

Fade away, fade away, fade away........ USD, USD, USD......

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Yellen needs to raise rates fast and hard! People are crediting Trump with economic improvements now! This is a political disaster! We need to crash the economy until Trump is removed, NOW!!!

THE “DON’T TRIGGER ME” MOVEMENT
The_Juggernaut's picture

It's nice that she doesn't have to protect Obama anymore.  Maybe we can get back to reality now.

BaBaBouy's picture

I Can Just Read TRUMP's Lips Right About Now... "I Want Her OUT..."

Say What Again's picture

Won't happen.  She still has the photos from their weekend in the Hamptons.

JLee2027's picture

I'm amazed that Trump hasn't yet called Yellen to the Tower.

gatorengineer's picture

She will call him to the community center at the Synagoge and he will go....

If you think Trump or Obozo are calling the shots your mistaken.

musimann's picture

I'll bet he won't be trying to grab it's pussy.....

Déjà view's picture

Hmmm...FED begins to have increasing losses on it bond portfolio with rising rates...no more $100b p.a. remittances to Treasury...

Janet...Peace On FED...let doves fly...

Mountainview's picture

Since Greenspan we have these gabberish talks and moves...

Raffie's picture

They are desperate BIG TIME... fear controls all.

JRobby's picture

Janet's head on a bowling ball rack

gatorengineer's picture

I keep thinking that she is going for a spaceballs remake with that hair

musimann's picture

Oh... I thought that thing was a cross dressing khazar man.

optimator's picture

I'd smile too if my net worth quadrupled in a just a few years.

chunga's picture

Ha she looks like the Cheshire Cat.

larz's picture

....With a pumpkin head

ZoroAustrian's picture

Fuck You Janet!

And all your criminal sycophants too ....

Jacksons Ghost's picture

Pulling the plug on this shit show soon.  The Kenyan gets away scot free and Trumpelthinskin gets left holding the bag.

gatorengineer's picture

I am hoping that when we hit the wall this time we are at full ludicrous speed, and there is nothing left to even attempt to put back together again.

small axe's picture

I used to watch these live feeds of Yellen, but there's nothing more to learn other than she continues to lie, manipulate, and screw over the American peasant.

still, if memory serves, she does shuck and jive pretty well in service to her master bankers. Kind of interesting if you don't mind a large white woman making a fool of herself.

optimator's picture

Years ago when I saw Steve Lies man sittinging in the the front row isle seat I threw up and stopped watching as I instantly had all my suspicions confirmed.

Chippewa Partners's picture

There's a special place for the likes of Bernanke and Yellen..................

optimator's picture

Are you saying the FED has no diversity?  You'd think they could find a black Jew somewhere.

Colonel Klink's picture

Sammy died years ago, Whoopi is still available.

Say What Again's picture

My secret is out,  Damn!!!

Squidbilly's picture
Squidbilly (not verified) Dec 14, 2016 2:36 PM

evolution will end the fed...

Seasmoke's picture

For once. Just tell you the Truth Mr. Yellen. Before you hear the words you're fired !!!!

Colonel's picture

Fucking shitstain grandma in charge of the fed. And that dumbass beagle look, lefTARD idiots

steveo77's picture

The jews that be work hard to hobble the incoming president as he tries to drain the swamp.

"if we can have iron fist control, then burn the fucking place down, all of it!"

Say What Again's picture

You should hook up with Boris.  He can help you out with your English grammar.

Paul Morphy's picture

Yellen looks terrified

Colonel Klink's picture

He's just pointing out her lying shyster nature.

Say What Again's picture

I'm no fan of the fed or ol' yeller.  But everyone like to blame the jews for their problems, which are really just the result of poor decision making.  Its never my fault, right?

 

any_mouse's picture

I am not getting into the "blame jews" part.

My concern is "poor decision making"? Is that like "extremely careless"? No one is responsible, just poor decision making.

When someone almost always benefits from "poor decision making" and others lose, it makes one wonder about those making those decisions.

The fact that FED chairmen tend to be from one background is obvious.

There was intentionally poor decision making on Jekyll Island followed by poor decison making in Washington DC.

Say What Again's picture

I'm talking about individual decision making.  Most people don't want to admit that they made a bad decision that resulted in a negative financial outcome.  Most of the time, people don't want to say; "I didn't understand ________ would have an impact on my business."  Instead they say; "Someone cheated ..." 

BTW -- I admire your approach to have a healthy debate, regardless of our individual opinions.

Colonel Klink's picture

And (((Bernanke))) was just wrong 100% on the eCONomy and subprime. Um yeah, just bad decision making on my part and the nation.

Stop trying to defend the chosen for the fucking we've all received at their hand. My decisions have been just fine but I've still taking a fucking at their hands. It's hard to fight the cheesepope controlled Fed and banking system.

What do you have to say to that?

Say What Again's picture

I'm not defending anyone.

Going all the way back to Greenspan, the Fed has hurt our economy.  Their poicy has created the largest transfer of wealth from the hard working people to the bankers, CEOs that benefit from stock buy-back, etc.

What makes you think I defending the Fed?

Colonel Klink's picture

Just seeing where you stand on things.

musimann's picture

It seems you don't understand the relationship between the Fed and Jewish banking practices the enrich themselves and destroy economies.