Retail Sales Disappoint As Post-Trump Animal Spirits Fail To Appear

Tyler Durden's picture

Retail Sales growth for November rose just 0.1% MoM, missing expectations of a 0.3% jump, and saw notable downward revisions to October's surge. The biggest drover of the weakness was sales of motor vehicles tumbled 0.5% MoM in November.

October's 0.8% growth surge was marked down to just 0.6% and November rose just 0.1% MoM...

 

Leaving YoY growth sliding back into its average for the year - no escape velocity post-Trump...

 

The biggest driver of the weakness appears to be a slump in Sporting Goods and and Motor Vehicle sales...

 

With Motor Vehicles biggest drop since March..

 

Not exactly the Post-Trump euphoria priced into the stock market!

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abyssinian's picture

wow, couldn't ask for more bullish news, now Dow will head towards 30,000 before Trump takes office. 

 

buy buy buy. 

Silverhog's picture

Market is a fattened pig for slaughter by the boys.

brushhog's picture

Gotta have good paying jobs to have sales, guys. Sending productivity overseas in exchange for cheap goods has run it's course.

Last of the Middle Class's picture

Clearly we need trillions more QE to "prime the pump" LMFAOPOTF!

yogibear's picture

Yeah, raise prices by 20% and more QE.

Fed go ahead and impoverish the 80%.

It's for the banksters.

PoasterToaster's picture
PoasterToaster (not verified) Dec 14, 2016 8:52 AM

Well shit.  Used to be that if you couldn't move inventory it meant your price was too high and you had to drop it.

Guess they have a better solution now.

Hal n back's picture

Restaurant sales were the big gainer. Meanwile surveys of restaurants say traffic is down

King Tut's picture
King Tut (not verified) Hal n back Dec 14, 2016 9:17 AM

Top 10% eating more $100 steak dinners while the plebs stay home for Friskies Buffet

Whoa Dammit's picture

Everyone is tired of having Chinese junk as the only choice of what they can afford to buy.

Seasmoke's picture

Just my eyes tell me. The stores have Been empty this Christmas season. 

buzzkillb's picture

Out here in Los Angeles most everything has been packed since 2 days after elections. Went to the mall a few times and this past weekend, no parking. Hard to believe all of these people are out walking around with shopping bags and retail can't cut it. The part of LA I am from is pro Trump, so that may play into what people think is happening.

Car dealers on the other hand look empty. A family member is looking to replace a 16 year old car and those sales guys are going hard for the sale.

gatorengineer's picture

whats non store retail?  Hookers and blow?

Tortuga's picture

Ahh. Perpetual "growth". It's different this time. Mystical Pie in the sky numbers materialized by "crony" algo's to facilitate the purchase of 2nd homes in the Hamptons.

Eagle Keeper's picture

Reality is a bitch....

moonmac's picture

Most Americans are spending every penny they have and some. The slightest psychological downturn in our economy will become a cascading chain of devastating events just like last time when both the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department said our world was about to end so they printed up a bunch of money and made Earth about 3 times richer in the process. Wealth Effects conjured up with Black Magic and Witchcraft have nowhere to go but down into the fire pits of Hell along with all the people who help create them.

 

 

 

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

the obuma fiction of American jobs don't matter..does have an effect..empty pockets

Batman11's picture

Neo-liberalism relies on debt to paper over the cracks, when debt. maxes out it stops working.

A system that re-cycles the surplus can carry on working indefinitely.

With Thatcher and Reagan we bought in a new type of capitalism and changed most of the fundamental assumptions.

Francis Fukuyama in 1992 said it was “the end of history” and Capitalism had been the only successful economic system to stand the test of time.

But we had just changed the fundamental assumptions about capitalism.

1) 40 years ago, most economists and almost everyone else believed the economy was demand driven and the system naturally trickled up.

2) Now most economists and almost everyone else believes the economy is supply driven and the system naturally trickles down.

These assumptions are the total opposite of each other.

When we believed the economy was demand driven and trickled up, we used strong progressive taxation to compensate for the inherent trickle up of capitalism.

Inequality reached its lowest levels in recorded history in the developed world; there were no demand side problems.

Now we believe the economy is supply driven and trickles down, we lowered taxes on the wealthy and inequality soared; the demand side problems grow worse as the sticking plaster solution of debt. maxes out for individual consumers.

When we believed the economy was demand driven and trickled up, we thought fiscal stimulus was the answer to get the economy going again as it created jobs and wages to be spent into the economy and trickle up. We are just getting back to this way of thinking.

Now we believe the economy is supply driven and trickles down, we thought monetary stimulus was the answer to get the economy going again as the money given to the banks would trickle down to everyone else. After eight years we are just starting to realise this didn’t work and are heading back to fiscal stimulus based on assumption one.

1) 40 years ago, most economists and almost everyone else believed income was just as important as profit. Income looked after the demand side of the equation and profit the supply side. 

2) Now most economists and almost everyone else believes maximising profit is the only thing that matters.

The IMF, Larry Summers and others are commenting on the chronic lack of demand in the system, it looks as though assumption one was right all along. We had been relying on the sticking plaster solution of debt to keep assumption two working but this maxes out.

1) 40 years ago, most economists and almost everyone else believed Capitalism tends to polarise and you need to recycle the surplus

2) Now most economists and almost everyone else believes capitalism naturally reaches stable equilibriums

Wealth is polarising at an alarming rate and demand is suffering.

2016 – “Richest 62 people as wealthy as half of world’s population”

Keynesian capitalism used strong progressive taxation to compensate for the inherent trickle up of capitalism.

The sticking plaster solution of debt maxes out, recycling the surplus can keep the whole thing going forever.

When Keynes was involved in putting together the new international order after the Second World War, mechanisms to recycle the surplus were put in place in the Bretton-Woods agreement.

When the Euro was designed we assumed the Euro area would naturally reach a stable equilibrium and there are no mechanisms to recycle the surplus.

The Euro-zone is polarising and the poorest nation, Greece, has collapsed under its debts and the other Club-Med nations are heading that way.

The sticking plaster solution of debt maxes out, recycling the surplus can keep the whole thing going forever.

Can we admit we got it wrong?

Batman11's picture

We’ve got to keep this baby going.

How about another sub-prime mortgage, sub-prime auto loan, a payday loan  .......

You’ve got to take on more debt to keep it running

Sorry, I’m all maxed out, my meagre wages won’t cover any more debt repayments.

The end.

Batman11's picture

Adam Smith looked out on a world of small state, raw capitalism in the 18th Century.

What did he observe?

“The Labour and time of the poor is in civilised countries sacrificed to the maintaining of the rich in ease and luxury. The Landlord is maintained in idleness and luxury by the labour of his tenants. The moneyed man is supported by his extractions from the industrious merchant and the needy who are obliged to support him in ease by a return for the use of his money. But every savage has the full fruits of his own labours; there are no landlords, no usurers and no tax gatherers.”

He saw the trickle up of Capitalism:

1) Those with excess capital collect rent and interest.

2) Those with insufficient capital pay rent and interest.

Adam Smith saw how consumer purchasing power was reduced by housing costs, debt repayments and taxes.

Today we just think of reducing taxes to increase purchasing power, reducing housing costs and debt repayments are equally effective. 

A bit late now with housing booms fully inflated around the world killing demand in the economy, maybe next time.

Neo-liberalism was rolled out across the world, unfortunately it was completely and utterly wrong in almost every respect, only debt has kept it running and the world is now maxed. out.

StreetObserver's picture

'OBOYCOTT'

That is if you support Trump, slam the brakes on all but essential spending until Trump's first full month in office. Whatever you do buy, pay for with cash so the statistics aren't available through credit card companies' reporting.

After February first, unleash your inner spender and do use credit cards wherever possible so statistics are reported. Small businesses always deserve cash payments.

"Yuugggee sales in February"--spread the word.