Housing Starts, Permits Crash In November (Despite Soaring Homebuilder Confidence)

Tyler Durden's picture

Just yesterday homebuilders raged hard about how awesome everything was - sending their optimism index to its highest since the previous peak in 2005. It seems they are all talk and no action as November's data for housing starts and permits collapsed (following the trajectory of mortgage apps).

Housing Starts crashed 18.7% MoM - near the biggest monthly plunge since the crisis peak in 2005.

 

Housing Starts are down 6.9% YoY.

 

Driven by a 43.9% collapse in Multi-family Starts MoM: look at the volatility in that time series: is that what a "stable" housing market looks like?

 

Housing Permits plunged 4.7% MoM - the most since March - as it seems optimism talk from homesbuilders is not reflected in their actions.

 

Once again it was multi-famly permits that collapsed the most MoM.

 

As usual, actions speak louder than words

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VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

Hang in there baby........Team Trump is coming.

 

Come see us January 21.

knukles's picture

Maybe I can borrow $30,000,000 for that starter home in Los Gatos on my 347 credit score and a handful of pistachio shells as collateral.

buzzsaw99's picture

you have pistachio shells? lucky.

JRobby's picture

Rates go up, construction slows down.

Return to teaser rates, stated income, stated asset loans, loans for all etc.??????

They make alot of $$$$$ on those

buzzsaw99's picture

then bundle those loans into saleable securities, slice and dice into something we'll call tranches, have moody's stamp the whole thing AAA, then sell them to a gullible public while shorting the whole mess via hedge funds. GENIUS!

Oldwood's picture

Hot damn!

Prosperity is BACK!

Paul John Smith's picture

"10 THOUSAND YEAR GALAXY BONDS!"

"BACKED BY THE FAITH AND CREDIT OF EXTRA-SOLAR PLANETS!"

rccalhoun's picture

home builder confidence is as high as the last closed sale.  its not a forward measurement (although it wants to be). i know

many homebuilders and all base their future expectations on the last closed sale.

Life of Illusion's picture

 

FLASH MONEY FROM FED , FAKE FROM 2009

Paul John Smith's picture

"You gotz pistacio shells??? fuck man ... that's something ..."

https://youtu.be/wWfrjRS1JQI

Funn3r's picture

I had some pistachio shells too until that unlucky boating accident

de3de8's picture

Shoot, I throw mine away

restelle's picture

Not that far off. 

I was a software developer for Option One Mortgage until 2005, where I worked on Automated Underwriting Software.

I recall that we allowed 110% LTV, no docs, no pistachios, and no down for credit scores in the mid 500 range.

The REO dept. suspiciously kept getting larger and larger, until they had employees sitting in hallways with make shift desks.

Oldwood's picture

SO!

It was YOU who is responsible!!!

Joe Sichs Pach's picture

If I recall, Delta Funding had even looser standards than O1

restelle's picture

It's possible that they did.  Hard to imagine though.

misterbulldops's picture

The NAHB data was for Dec, though.  So Dec starts more relevant comparison which ain't out yet.  I think r/e types are salivating....again.  

angry_dad's picture

smart buyers know the prices on existing homes will correct downward and they will buy on the dips as higher mortgage rates always help buyers.

everyone knows you can refinance a loan but you can't renegotiate a price

motivated sellers are already dropping prices 

Oldwood's picture

SMART people everywhere have been fucked by this rigged fucker. 

SheepDog-One's picture

Around this time of year it gets cold so it's harder to start building a house than in the summer, der.

buzzsaw99's picture

+1 they could have omitted the MoM charts.

Oldwood's picture

And we should NEVER doubt the optimism of those who's income is dependent on stock evaluations.

Small businesses earn from profits while those running corporations earn from stock performance, which we KNOW many times has NOTHING to do with profits.

booboo's picture

Many Municipalities are raising impact fees Jan1 so it may be a factor as they piled in nov dec. I say "may" don't be a hater;)

Oldwood's picture

Thinking about government impacts I can't help but wonder how much gravy a government entity AND key personnel can profit from large multifamily projects as compared to single family homes. I'm seeing some massive complexes coming out of the ground.

booboo's picture

Its $16,000 per single family home here, multifamly impact fees are less per unit even though they pack 20 free loaders with 6 cars in them.

de3de8's picture

52k in one jurisdiction I work in

pitchforksanonymous's picture

Nothing new under the sun. Saw homebuilders building like crazy right before the last housing bust.

Guess what I see going on now? The same thing times 2!! Buckle up homebuilders. Housing bust 2.0 coming your way!

ejmoosa's picture

Isn't it just about time we quit asking folks what they feel and just look at the data?

From the Fed to the builders to consumers, we keep asking "How do you feel?"

 

NugginFuts's picture

"I haven't looked at the value of my portfolio in about a year, but I feel like it must be doing great! And, ya know, Trump, so I'm gonna be rich now. Just cause."

Oldwood's picture

Because we aren't smart enough to know what Numbers mean. We need "professionals" to interpret for us.

MFL5591's picture

Need people working in REAL jobs to have a normal housing market.  Boom and bust housing enginerred by the Fed is not normal or healthy sustainable growth.  Get rid of the Fed or get on Gold standard and assets will eventualy return to normal cycles.

saveUSsavers's picture

no offense, but any move to gold standard (not going to happen( but it would be leaked way ahead and GoldmanSacksU would hoard all of it ahead of time, it would be manipulated beyond comprehension, to the detriment of the 90% masses

Skiprrrdog's picture

Obama's birth certificate was proved to be a FORGERY by expert forensic examination, as announced live at a press conference yesterday by Sherriff Joe Arpaio

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuhF-Ok3djI&app=desktop

Why isnt ZH, or ANYONE talking about this?

NugginFuts's picture

because "What difference, at this point, does it make?"

Tallest Skil's picture

Because we're going to legally invalidate literally every single fucking thing he did in the last 8 years. Judges, laws, EOs, treaties; all of it is out the fucking window now.

saveUSsavers's picture

I worked for homebuilders over 20 yrs in marketing as vendor, I can tell you THEY LEARNED TO COLLUDE ON THE SURVEY. LYING ABOUT TRAFFIC, ETC...

chosen's picture

Rates go up, home prices and sales go down.  Geez, rates have only gone up a little.  Just imagine what will happen when Fed funds rate gets back to normal, around 5%.