Stocks Suffer Worst Week Since Election As Banks, Bullion, & Bonds Sink

Tyler Durden's picture

The market's message to Dow 20,000 (or China's message to 'Murica)?

 

Thanks to China stealing an underwater drone and quad witch shenanigans, US equities closed red post-Fed...

 

And while Gold spiked today on China, it remains the biggest laggard post-Fed (though even bank stocks are now red)...

 

And today's China headlines realy spooked the market on edge anyway from OPEX

 

On the week only The Dow managed to hold onto gains...

  • Trannies Dropped 2.5% - worst week in 6 months
  • Financials dropped 1.6% - worst week in 3 months
  • NYSE Composite worst week since election

On the week, stocks were mixed but Trannies worst...

 

Dow 20,000 was lost - 2 lower highs in a row post Fed spike...

 

Quad Wicth saw more VIX chaos with a total collapse into the close (note the corrrelation between stocks and VIX was extremely high once again - as opposed to norm)

 

Financial stocks were the week's worst performers (and healthcare best)...

 

Treasury yields ended the week higher across the curve BUT the long-end dramatically outperformed...

 

And the yield curve has tumbled in recent days...

 

The USD Index rose notably on the week to close at 14 year highs... (led by Yen and Aussie Dollar weakness)

 

The Dollar dump after China sparked some chaos in commodities and lifted crude oil into the green, silver was worst on the week...

 

Gold spiked today on China headlines but ended the week ugly - 6th weekly drop in a row (worst week since election week)

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Keltner Channel Surf's picture

After a difficult period (for intraday trading entries, that is) in the Russell post-Trump, with either gonzo pre-open methedrine ramps or tiny, annoying gap-dojis (9 in a row from 11/14 – 25!) December has seen the return of more ‘standard’ machine tricks, albeit with a blend of dragonfly battles where shorter 15min charts reigned supreme, and days like the last 3, in which Daily chart touchpoints, come hell or high water, often with sudden hellish retracements, were nonetheless closely approached, often to the penny.

Confirms my belief (which seems logical) that markets have to be viewed as the sum total of all participants, with some (our daily algo friends) more ubiquitous than other Johnny-come-lately’s (e.g. Trumpian rebalancers). 

Knowing when, often with minute-to-minute intraday clues, the various players are taking control (or when they’re cancelling each other out in white noise) is difficult, but at least, unlike other aspects of trading, does improve a bit with experience.  And, for one of the few times this year, we had a tradable Russell OPEX.

Happy trading, and a pleasant weekend to all.

Traderone's picture

How ironic your statement is regarding the Russell being tradeable on OPEX as i felt the ES was nigh on impossible today. Firstly they ran it back to the open from the Globex low on wafer thin volume which I should have been conscious of but wasn't thus getting trapped in a 'long only' mindset, tut tut to me and more practise required. Then all key intraday levels were rejected from below which is a clear short signal to those with open and clear minds. Alas, I spent the rest of the session fighting fires but i'll live. 

Stay modest my friend and a good weekend to you and all.

Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Sorry to hear that.  RUT is usually so spiky and horizontal that I sit out 9 of 10 OPEXs, had a hunch this last one might bear fruit.

Even so, I knew it would be hell, so I tried a trick to block out all but the largest algos:  I pre-market visualized a 'standard' Daily move up to the 2.0 K-Limit, then planned to short it back down to the front-weighted 20, yesterday's algo target. 

It didn't quite make it, and neither did I -- though I got a full percent by 1:00, there was no reason to exit so early, I was just spooked by the 30 sec. half-percent retracements every 10 mins.  So, even 5 years and 15,000 hours into this I still have problems with psychology on long, drawn out days (Russell's so volatile you can't ignore short-term charts, which can mess with your head.) All we can do is get back on the horse next week.  Take care.

Citizen_x's picture

 

It was a funny day.  Early on, QQQ was down .33 % and VXN was down over 3 %.

Have a great week end all !

Keltner Channel Surf's picture

With "quad-witching" I picture 4 witches, all more evil than the one from the Wizard of Oz, stirring boiling cauldrons filled with eyes of newt, HFT subroutines and other rare ingredients.  Thus, it's no surprise it was a 'funny' day.

AlexCharting's picture

That is one of the reasons why I became a swing-trader… many big moves happens before or after market closes. I would probably trade futures or CFDs if I were to start day-trading, though I doubt I will do that… especially now that I’ve gotten addicted to options. I have come far in my training, since I did not even know what a ticker was 1 year ago :D I become OCD and borderline autistic when I get interested in something, and financial markets are my current passion.

Keltner Channel Surf's picture

I originally planned to trade options, but got the intraday index bug.

If you haven't gotten these recommendations already, good books I've read on options, the first a dry but essential tome, the others more strategic, are as follows:

  • “Options as a Strategic Investment”  by Lawrence McMillan
  • Various books by Guy Cohen, such as “Options Made Easy” and “Volatile Markets Made Easy”  “Bible of Options Strategies”  etc., perhaps the best at making complexity understandable

Best of luck

onwisconsinbadger's picture

Drumpf is responsible just like he was the reason for the rally.

SallySnyd's picture

Here is an article that takes a fascinating look at what will happen during a military confrontation between China and the United States:

 

http://viableopposition.blogspot.ca/2016/09/what-would-war-with-china-lo...

 

A readjustment in the over-valued market will be the least of our problems. 

Osmium's picture

20k is still well within their reach.  Announce a merger or two over the weekend and create a Monday morning gap up.  No problem.

AlexCharting's picture

MANY Silver Stackers on YouTube are clueless (data below from Silver.com)

I watched some silver stacker youtube videos today, and many pay ALLOT over spot. At a silver spot price of $16,13 per oz, a “1 oz Sunshine Silver Bar” costs $16.88, which is 4,6% over  spot. However, that is one of the best deals out there, and those bars are pretty bland. Many YouTube stackers love to buy silver with various motifs: e.g. a “1 oz PAMP Suisse Horse Silver Bars” costs $32,14, which is 99% over spot. 

IF you are going to stack silver, instead of stacking SLV shares, then think about return-on-investment!

NugginFuts's picture

Funny, I've often pondered the value of American Silver Eagles vs regular bullion coins. Among the many differences (purity, mint, govt backing) is the numismatic value, ie: the value given to rare or special collectors. I hate that the minimum premium on those coins is $2.49 over spot (15.4%!), but since they are also collectible to a certain subset of individuals, they retain that value more than regular Sunshine Mint bullion or whatever. Plus they're darn pretty looking coins.

My favorite deals are the promos for various retailers advertising the bullion *at spot*. I pick up those deals when I find them since it helps keep the ROI low.

AlexCharting's picture

I dont own anything yet beyond a small gold cross and a silver Norwegian cultural ornament. Granted, there is a decent amount of PM's in my electronics, and even silver in my mirror :) However, I plan to buy some bars in the future, since I am very interested in chemistry, and PM's are chemically amazing. 

NugginFuts's picture

Word of warning: once you get some, you'll want more. It's one thing to see digits going up and down on a screen, but quite another to hold it in your hand. I wouldn't have believed it myself till I went out and bought some.

So hey, where's your daily statistical analysis of gold/silver/miners? I look forward to that daily breakdown!

RawPawg's picture

Spot On,My Fellow Addict

AlexCharting's picture

Sure, I will start analysing them again next week... everything to spread "the good word" about technical analysis :) Looking at the charts now... oh yes, Gold and Silver (and related miners) are all bearish on daily, weekly and monthly datapoints :( 

Shpedly's picture

Spare yourself the agony of collecting shiney metals. In a shit storm they have no use. 

Hongcha's picture

If you are looking to eventually resell at a good profit, I suggest you restrict yourself to US Silver and Gold Eagles.  Who will be buying?  Asians, esp. the Chinese.  They trust well-known American brands.  Good chance they will ask for a discount on the Indian rounds (which I like personally), Canadians, etc.  Their own coins are cartoonish and widely faked.

Not saying it's right, just saying what is.  And the Eagles are fine-looking coins.

Rainman's picture

Can't wait til they start selling those hundred year War Bonds.

Baby Eating Dingo22's picture

Oh the horror!!!

What's it down?

.000003%??

ParticularlyStupidHumanoid's picture

Down on the week 0.04% LOL. Why is ZH having lying headlines. The week is correctly reported as "flat".

Shpedly's picture

Yeah, the article headlines are getting a little obnoxious.

buzzsaw99's picture

obama is a god damn disgrace

pc_babe's picture

YUUUGER than reggie and michael double tapping?

ParticularlyStupidHumanoid's picture

I'll tell you exactly why: Democrats don't care about the truth - no matter what. They're fucking stupid. Therefore, no amount of proof does any good. They're fucking idiots.

Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Australian Indiepop Band-of-the-Week:  Even As We Speak  (1986 - present)

Can’t explain why, but the cover version below of New Order’s ‘Bizarre Love Triangle’ has been going through my head all day, approached simply and directly, with deadpan female vocals that give it a bit of sweetness vs. the original.

To show the band's versatility I've also included a few other Even As We Speak classics, an Aussie band around since the late-80s, including the short, stark “Nothing Even Happens” which lyrically recalls The Cure’s “10:15 Saturday Night” and another more lighthearted indie track.   Have a nice weekend.

(YouTube links)

Bizarre Love Triangle  (New Order Cover)   
Nothing Ever Happens   
Falling Down the Stairs   

Allen_H's picture

Whoever thought a underwater dildo could do so much damage? A fucking laugh.

pc_babe's picture

This is fake news

Jungle Jim's picture

Die, stocks, die.

ParticularlyStupidHumanoid's picture

ZH in with Day trader junk.

JB Say's picture

Stocks not exactly suffering at the moment.

Flatchestynerdette's picture

Like the 4 minute mile, a virgin, and the moon landing - 20,000 is deemed special. That steady march to breaching 20,000 was all anyone could talk about for the last 2 weeks as we flew by 19,000, kinda like the 3rd Reich rolliing over France's #2 biggest military in 4 days - fast and with no resistance. Since we're down 0.04% on the week (yes LOL) it changes the mindset of the talking heads to end of year for hedge fund managers and if they'll lock in profits, driving the index down or will the algo's reading the headlines after Trump gets his Electoral College stamp of approval Monday the 19th, the index goes up so we close on Friday Dec. 30th at 20,150?

As always, thanks for posting the daily

wisetrader224's picture
wisetrader224 (not verified) Dec 16, 2016 6:52 PM

 This is a good article. But, one think I have learned in my over 70 years on this earth is to search for useful information that actually is beneficial in some way. As far as market analysis and predictions the only analyst I use anymore is www.shepwave.com 

 

Here are who some of us on here--the more educated and profitable traders anyway--follow to give clarity to the market direction.

 

They recent put some of their past charts on their Facebook page which PROVE that they are correct:

https://www.facebook.com/Stock-Market-Technical-Analysis-Elliott-Wave-Theory-166578775325/

 

 

FB post…showing QQQ chart from Dec 2nd

 

https://www.facebook.com/166578775325/photos/a.10153488951800326.1073741827.166578775325/10154303985890326/?type=3

 

 

wisetrader224's picture
wisetrader224 (not verified) wisetrader224 Dec 16, 2016 6:52 PM

They put this on their blog earlier this evening:

www.shepwave.com/blogs

 

ShepWave Important Updates for Monday Published. ANOTHER HIGHLY PREDICTABLE WEEK IN THE EQUITY INDEXES.
by ShepWave.com
Posted: 12/16/2016 18:16 EST

AGAIN, YOU JUST CAN’T MAKE THIS STUFF UP!

 

I found it humorous this afternoon as I was watching a news program who said (paraphrasing), ‘The Stock Market Closes Down Today Because of China Bombing a Drone.” Or something like that.

 

I had to chuckle. They will continue to ascribe the activity to any possible news event whatsoever. Not that there are legitimate times to do so, but they tend to take it to an erroneous degree.

 

This week ShepWave anticipated a range bound market for the US equity indexes, and even anticipated that Friday the indexes would close toward the lower end of the week’s trading range. 

 

As well, it was within the first 20 minutes of the markets being open Friday morning that we issued our first very aggressive SELL SIGNAL for short term traders. Then an hour later, we saw another short term confirmation SELL SIGNAL. Then the drone was bombed.

 

No, we at ShepWave are not clairvoyant. We merely use simple technical tools that serve as valuable gauges to anticipate market direction.

 

So, now what? Is the rally over? Can we see Dow 20,000? Or how about 30,000? Well for the answer to those and many more questions you will need to follow along with ShepWave as we see—or do not see—continuing sell signals. We may see some buy signals next week.

 

The point is that there are very few analysts who do analysis—technical analysis or other—in a truly objective manner. We at ShepWave strive to maintain objectivity and use reliable trading signals. 

Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Where's Babs St. Louis and Dr. Carl, two of your other shill accounts?  Isn't it time they came and endorsed your Shit-wave analysis?

You win the award for the most idiotic spamming troll in ZH history, not even bothering to change your text much, and having the same shills come and endorse you every day.  Fuck off.

Born2Bwired's picture


The Tylers are very smart. What I don't understand is why they can't block posts that go to obvious promotion sites like this and all the other stuff that just clutters up the comment area.

 

Yo Tyler! Figure out links posted, resolve them to the destination site, if this is a promo or other bullshit site DON'T publish the post. Should be simple URL header lookup against a list..

 

It would get rid of most the crap that is filling the commentary now, and then the back and forth between those trying to out posters who are spammng vs. those who tell them to shut up!

 

The ShepWave crap is just the latest. Please guys.... Filter posts with links not posters, then there is no reason to have all the BS show up all the time. Thanks!