The 'Real' Question: What's Facebook's True Valuation Without "Fake"?

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Mark St.Cyr,

There are two hot topics post the U.S. presidential election. One is “fake news”, the other is Facebook™ (FB), and its involvement in it.

The accusations and the defenses against have been all over the board. Both figuratively, as well as literally.

Management from Mark Zuckerberg on down have been professing when it came to anything “fake” it wasn’t of their doing. And gee-whiz-by-golly they’re going to do whatever it takes to make sure anything “fake” never sees the “like” of day again.

Sounds great, in theory. But there’s a very real fact that must now be considered…

If “fake” news was so wide-spread, and so devoured on FB that it had the ability to not only influence, but rather, to overturn political norms and ruin the election of what everyone in media on down believed; that this election was merely a formality on paper because, it was clear to all of them, Mrs. Clinton would win not just walking away, but running?

 

That would mean FB now has to alienate (i.e., by now not delivering “news” these people wanted to see) millions, upon millions, upon millions of now current users. What does that imply to their now “real” (ooopsy, again!) metrics going forward?

If the above hypothetical has the ability to be true (and from a business perspective it sure has) the very fact that FB will now openly censor, mark, tag, possibly defame (whether intentionally or not), and more articles of news, or anything else shared on its platform. Two questions have to be asked:

First: How many FB customers decide they don’t need or want a “mommy” deciding what they can, or can not, read or share? Second: How fast does that process begin, and by how many?

No matter what side of the political fence you’re on matters. The only thing that matters is what all this means from a business perspective to FB’s bottom line. For as much as everyone likes “free”, without Wall Street (or the Swiss Central Bank) buying? FB moves to AOL™ status quicker than you can say “You’ve got mail®.”

As of this writing some hand writing is all ready appearing on the wall as FB announced not only will it begin to find ways to forbid fact-check. But it has now joined forces with a third-party to do just that. Again, all sounds good on the surface until you’re made aware by one’s own fact-checking just whom that third-party is. e.g., Poynter™.

Who are they? Personally, I’ve never heard of them prior, but it only took seeing one man’s name on the roster of backers to understand the impact it will have on a great many current FB users, as well as content generators to imagine a most assured backlash. e.g. George Soros.

Again, it doesn’t matter what side of the political fence you sit. And it doesn’t matter whether you like or dislike Mr. Soros, or anything he’s involved with. What does matter is this: How many users, along with legitimate purveyors of content currently using FB are going to allow any form of what they will most certainly view as censorship via an entity controlled (or at least think is) by people they deem hold the antithesis viewpoint to theirs? And it will be they that has the control to censor.

What’s the number? 1? 10? 10,000? 10 Million? ____________? (fill in the blank). And what do they represent in economic impact to FB’s bottom line? Does it hurt user numbers? Does a revolt in buying ads, or promoting sites, or content develop? The list of potential revenue disruptors begins to get lengthy when you truly ponder the potential impact. And Wall Street doesn’t like things that have the potential to hurt the bottom line. Non-GAAP or not.

Remember: The argument is “fake news” (and FB is now considered the poster child for where it ran rampant, whether rightly, or wrongly) had so much influence in this election that it cost the presumed victor millions of votes.

So if you take that logic as being possibly true. Then that means millions of FB users are consumers (For they must have consumed, no?) of that type of content. And if they now know FB will some how either remove it, or make it so burdensome to access they won’t see it? Whether they agree with FB’s conclusions or not? Are you beginning to see how this could run?

Then add to that one of the parties responsible for that form of censorship which they will be subject to as for what they may, or may not read – is being decided by an entity presumably controlled under the auspices of Mr. Soros? The potential for both FB content consumers along with content creators getting upset maybe an understatement. Even among the so-called “legitimate” voices. FB could have an outright revolution of revulsion on their hands. Think about it.

What happens if rather than FB being the provider or outlet for calls of boycotts or other social protests when it comes to advertisers and more, suddenly finds those roles reversed where it can be the recipient of those calls? And how do advertisers view those prospects? This whole “fake” has truly opened up a very real can-of-worms for FB in my opinion. A very real and potentially costly “can” at that.

Don’t think things have a potential for explosive reactions? Just try telling someone (anyone) they’re not allowed to see or read something. Forget politics, I mean anything. Watch how fast any argument of “It’s for your own good” lasts, or works.

There are other considerations I’ll bet a lot of people have yet to even ponder. So, for those who don’t remember ancient history. Or care about “marketing.” Let me leave you with this:

One of the best marketing and sales generating campaigns for the written word ever discovered fell under this same category” i.e., “You can’t read that – we forbid it!” Or, “Book burnings begin tonight!” Or my personal favorite “Banned in Boston!”

Personally, I don’t use FB. However, with that said – I will be the first one to put up on my site in large letters “Banned by FB” Or “FB says Don’t Read This!” Or, something of that sort should one of my articles ever get shared and some form of signaling or notation is made accordingly. It would be a badge of honor. Besides…

You couldn’t ask for better marketing. All at FB’s expense, and quite possibly, literally.

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Wulfkind's picture

Uhhhh.....what's a Facebook ??

FullHedge's picture

It's a social website where people with self-confidence issues go on to lie about what they did over the weekend to make their lives seem less miserable than yours.

TeamDepends's picture

Soooooooo, what do they make? What product do they manufacture?

fbazzrea's picture

"come into my parlor" said the spider to the fly.

knukles's picture

Do you want the evaluation with or without Zuckerberg?
Product is damaged goods, folks.

SafelyGraze's picture

the 'real' question is: 

why does the netherlands openly practice racism by using black-face performers, thereby belitting african-netherlandericans?

https://www.google.com/search?q=zwarte+piet&tbm=isch

this pracice is repugnant to everyone throughout the world, and the MSM and the current administration must immediately call on a boycott of all products made in the netherlands until such time as these shameful images are removed from the interwebs

love and joy,
black pete

amen to that! -santa claus

 

frenzic's picture

fuck you sylvana

agenda21 is not going down well in Holland is it

the pete thing is proving to be the turning point

HowardBeale's picture

"The Real Question": Why does something that, by definition, removes people from the reality of their existences and the people that they are actually with, as well as takes some fair percentage out of people's efforts to actually do the work they are tasked with during their working day have anything other than a negative valuation! Facebook should not have a valuation, but an indictment for undermining the social and financial stability of the country. The most extreme terrorist organization could never have have dreamed to cause the kind of destruction to a nation that Facebook has actually achieved...

In my world. granted. a world of a person who was raised in a time when people at a social funciton actually interacted with each other. there simply would have been a banishment--if not an indictment and trial.

Imagine the number of dead due to texts while driving: "I just ate a taco at Rubios. The waiter was so...--thump..."

A Nanny Moose's picture

With, or without Fuckerberger, FB has ZERO-FUCKING-OH value.

WTFUD's picture

Like Google they manufacture Propaganda. The CEO MZ should resign having made very bad choices in complying with Vichy DC's every whim and as a consequence against the interests of its 'clients/sheep', that's gross incompetence for not recognising which way the wind's blowing, surprisingly for truthiness. SuckerBerk

SWRichmond's picture

Revenue losses will be more than offset by their new secret government contract.

What's a "market"?

King Tut's picture
King Tut (not verified) SWRichmond Dec 19, 2016 12:04 AM

FB has always been CIA- Zuckerberg is the pasty faced Ivy League Tribesman who was lucky enough to be Chosen as the frontman.

bobbbny's picture

They show pictures of peoples lunch.

TeamDepends's picture

And people buy this, "product"?

Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

GOVT buys this product, to control the sheeple. 

CCanuck's picture

TeamDepends, FB manufactures consent.

SilvaDolla's picture

They produce stupid at an alarming rate.

Ghost of PartysOver's picture

FaceBook is for losers.  Nuff said.

abyssinian's picture

oh, I thought it was a bulletin board where all the morons post life quote of the day to make them sound smarter... and all the fat chicks post their gym workout videos..... 

RothschildPrivateEquity's picture

Best description of Facebook I have ever seen, if you are not an analyst quit your job and become one, deserves millions of upvotes!

Well Done!

 

Deplorable's picture

I know of a lot of Facebook users that use the platform to announce to everyone how special they are and to brag about their trivial achievements.

fbazzrea's picture

Fakebook... Fakebook, hmmmmm. i like it. (:

that's their name.

Tallest Skil's picture

A Jewish social networking site, like gab.ai.

AGuy's picture

"Uhhhh.....what's a Facebook ??"

I try not to be a spelling Nazi, but in this case I must correct you. Its not "facebook", its FAKEBOOK!

For those humour challenged: /sarc

flaunt's picture

Time for shareholder lawsuits against the so-called social media companies that are neglecting their fiduciary duties.

Syrin's picture

Seen.life.     The alternative to Fakebook.   Shut the f'ers down.

max_leering's picture

dropped fuckbook like a damned hot tater last week... my entire family less one is doing it... will look into seen.life

Sudden Debt's picture

going to facebook for news...

right between the kitty video's and the lunch pictures...

Give it another 5 years and facebook will be gone.

People expect so much from facebook, and for some it takes a decade, for some 1 hour but facebook doesn't bring you friends, doesn't make you happy and doesn't make you popular.

All it is, is a waste of time. A lot of time. And once people realize they lost so much time on that website, they get depressed.

 

 

AGuy's picture

"Give it another 5 years and facebook will be gone."

I think fakebook will be around for a while. It has a lot of appeal be the majority of vain & discontented people. that said, I never used fakebook, as it is just a big waste of time. That said I spend way too much time on ZH!

"All it is, is a waste of time. A lot of time. And once people realize they lost so much time on that website, they get depressed."

Wasting time is helping them avoid depression.

Jeepers Creepers's picture

I really feel like society went downhill fast when Facebook got big.

 

Social media is another form of enslavement.  Your life will be so much better being unplugged.

KimAsa's picture

Couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch.

HRH Feant's picture
HRH Feant (not verified) Dec 18, 2016 8:03 PM

Time to sell baby sell. Remember My Space?

Point made. No one will remember Fuckbook in 10 years.

sun tzu's picture

Nobody uses it now. Over 90% of the users only use it as a portal in order to post on news websites that require a facefuck account to post.

Rockwell's picture

Facebook is where women (and men who are women) go to start drama.

kwatinhu's picture

I've been eyeing put prices on this turd for months now, when do we get the trigger signal?

I really want to make money off this prick's descent.

It would just make me feel better.

Squidbilly's picture
Squidbilly (not verified) Dec 18, 2016 8:09 PM

yes the writing is on the wall graph and it's only going to go lower in tandem with the consumers continued awakening to the value of real things not ethereal ones.

HRH Feant's picture
HRH Feant (not verified) Squidbilly Dec 18, 2016 8:16 PM

When they have to spend real money to buy real food that will be a wake up call. How many people own real money? Less than 1%. I find that little thought experiment terrifying.

Nesbiteme's picture

 

Facebook's business consist of drug addicted small business men telling you over and over again about their shitty small business so they can buy the drugs they need, chain letter type misinformation, and people who don't exits trolling other people who don't exist. Myspace was much better. Never under estimate just how stupd American consumers and investors are.

Dr. Bonzo's picture

DUMP FAKEBOOK.

 

fucking morons....

 

Paul Morphy's picture

Yeah, never recognised what the attraction of Facebook was.

Family photo albums used to be something which you kept in a drawer in the sideboard. You wouldn't leave your family photos on a stand in a busy shopping mall, but folk have no problem sharing their photos to the rest of the world on FB.

Clara Tardis's picture

This is how FB is going about the purge: TruthStream Media did a short vid on how the new redirection police are shutting down "propaganda.

http://truthstreammedia.com/2016/12/16/blocked-locked-hacked-shutting-al...

root superuser's picture

Companies with few employees, whose main asset is some database being worth billions is laughable in its face. Facebook doesnt own any tangible assets, its a scam. Whatsapp has only 9 employees and its worth billions. Anyone remembers ICQ?

youarelost's picture

It is worthless. It destroyes.  Everything in it is fake and drama filled crap

MexInvest's picture

Now honestly I did not expect Facebook to make as a stock.  But I am amazed at their marketing program which goes well with the popularity. SO, in the long run FB is a good play. But I think it is a bit ahead of itself at this point. 

sun tzu's picture

Nobody actually uses it. Don't you understand? Only the idiots are paying for ads because their marketing deptartment is full of Ivy League dipshits.