Would Hillary Really Have Won If Election Was Based On Popular Vote?

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Without a doubt, Trump campaigned much smarter than Hillary.  Now Michael Moore and his ilk are upset because Trump lost the popular vote. Had the rules been different, Trump would have campaigned differently.

Salil Mehta at Statistical Ideas explores that question in Popular Vote Besotted.

No one complained in early October about the Electoral College rules, no one complained that Russian President Putin was hacking our election system, no one complained that the results would be illegitimate if too many Whites versus Blacks come out to vote, and no one complained that Americans were going to have a negative view of Hillary’s e-mails (from servers, to leaks). When asked at the 2nd presidential debate whether the election outcome would be accepted, it was Clinton to had to call Trump’s response “horrifying” and a “taking down of our democracy”. Why not; it was game over after that Access Hollywood gift, and it’s time to plan expensive fireworks over the Hudson River on election night. Those fireworks never happened.

Who campaigned more prudently?


We have been hearing Donald Trump’s side claim that he was simply more ingenious in picking the “key” states to campaign in, and if the traditional rules were to win the popular vote then he would have changed his overall strategy to win that way.


Since Kellyanne Conway emerged as Mr. Trump’s campaign manager, more than a couple months prior to election, we have a record of all the major campaign appearances for both candidates in order to see who took advantage of the vote decision-making time better. Hillary Clinton simply went to 2/3 as many appearances, and each time to smaller audiences, versus her rival. But she did appear from time to time at some music concerts, confidently assuming that was enough (it wasn’t and outside of millennials, she lost the popular vote in the rest of the age spectrum).


We also know that there were 6 economically worse-off states that flipped from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016. She campaigned with less appearances in each of these 6 states. No that’s bad and indefensible. As a portion of all of her appearances, her relative efforts were competitive in five of these 6 states and very strong in Ohio. Yet even in for Ohio’s growing population, her total votes fell ruinously, and her popular vote margin was even more disastrous: from (Obama +3%), to (Clinton -8.1%).


Hillary Clinton wasted nearly 7% of her campaigning in two blue states [California and New York], only to increase her popular vote margin by a total of 1m! But for no good reason as the popular vote margin % was already in the low-20s% in her favor. So this is just another example of unwise campaign strategy.


What if the original rules were the popular vote, then what likely changes would have happened among these two tough contenders? What if Donald Trump spent less time in the 6 states noted above, and instead campaigned harder in states such as California (he never did), and Texas (only one appearance). This would be sufficient to wipe out the current lead Hillary Clinton has in the popular vote, simply by blunting the margin difference between elections (seen in map below). Not enough to suggest Mr. Trump would have had an easy advantage however.


So this is where we need to take an additional leap, from probability theory to game theory. We would have to assume the magical change for 2016 would have spurred up additional voter turnout in these otherwise disparate large states, as they did in the manufacturing, Rust Belt states. The messaging would have therefore have needed to be altered, and there is every reason to believe Donald Trump would have been able to be at least enough effective in that to be successful on the popular vote metric. Whether this means 70% chance, or 55% chance, it is still an effective consideration.

Excellent Analysis once again by Salil Mehta. Nate Silver totally blew this election from start to finish.

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orangegeek's picture

Michael Fatso will be up on attempted bribery charges of Electoral Officials after January 20.


Maybe you should write about that Shedlock.

Looney's picture

Slightly OT…

For the last few months, the Liberals have been calling Trump a Russian Agent.

Dmitry Orlov has an interesting article about someone else being a Russian Agent – Obama.

… although it is always possible to claim that all of Obama’s failures stem from mere incompetence, at some point this claim begins to ring hollow; how can he possibly be so utterly competent… at being incompetent? Perhaps he just used incompetence as a veil to cover his true intent, which was always to bolster Russia while rendering the US maximally irrelevant in world affairs…

It seems that this Dmitry fellar has a better grasp on reality than all Snowflakes and Dindus combined.   ;-)


Son of Loki's picture

There's no doubt that Obama hacked the DNC and released info that tarnished someone he and the wookie hate---Hillary and Bill Clinton.

WestVillageIdiot's picture

The Clintons have gotten away with so much criminality in the past 30 years that you would think they would just be thankful, shut their fucking pie holes, and go away.  But nooooooooooo.  They have to continue to run their mouths, spew nonsense, and instruct their surrogates to do the same.  I guess once a sociopath, always a sociopath.

And then there are the Michael Moores of the world who just can't stop proving that they have completely lost all touch with reality.  If only Michael, Lena, Cher, Madonna, Clooney, and the rest of the proglodytes would learn just a little class and shut their gaping gateways to hell that they call mouths we could be a much better country.  But then again, improving the country isn't their agenda. 

froze25's picture

Valeri Jarrett leaked the emails, who got burned the worst from all this? Huma Aberdeen did, a Sunni Muslim , Jarrett a Sheite muslim.  Iran vs Saudis. This was a final F$ck you to team Clinton from Team Obama. 

Never One Roach's picture

Oh yeah. As said above, the Obamas hate BIll and Hillary ever since that first election when they bashed each other. However, Obama used some pretty violent and mefarious Alinsky techniques that Hillary had not thought of yet. And she lost.

Seems she learned them and used them in this election but still lost.

TBT or not TBT's picture

Trump could have run as an anti=American open borders high regulation use-any-bathroom-you-feel  type to peel away Democrat votes.   Easy. 

RAT005's picture

Not only would have Trump campaigned differently but people would have voted differently. I'm sure many Trump supporters in Illary oases just stayed home knowing their vote had no value.

Plus all of the extra fake votes in Illary precincts.

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Something is very problem in mind of person that is complain about lose, claiming they are win if rule was different… is like in Amerikansky football if team is lose by fewer touching down, but is make more meter in running field.

Actually, is more like Obama play checker game while Vlad is play chess, when actual game is chess, not checker game. Boris is not recommend even engage in discussion with such emotionally dysregulated individual.

Like Samuel Clemens quote, do not argue with fool, he is bring you down and beat you with experience.

TBT or not TBT's picture

Hildabeast did her Master's thesis on Alinsky and was a hanger on from then until till his death. 

JRobby's picture

He Alinsky'd some folks.

Then went on to be the most destructive POTUS in history.

94 million part time jobs.

JRobby's picture

Which popular vote?

The one with, or without the ten million invalid/illegal votes????

Michael Moore has an appointment at the rendering plant for New Year's. 

BabaLooey's picture

There are 3,141 counties in the United States. 

Trump won 3,084 of them. Clinton won 57.

There are 62 counties in New York State.

Trump won 46 of them. Clinton won 16.

Clinton won the popular vote by approx. 1.5 million votes statewde.

In the 5 counties that encompass NYC, (Bronx, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Richmond & Queens) Clinton received well over 2 million more votes than Trump. (Clinton only won 4 of these counties; Trump won Richmond)

Therefore these 5 counties alone, more than accounted for Clinton winning the popular vote of the entire country.

These 5 counties comprise 319 square miles.

The United States is comprised of 3,797,000 square miles.

When you have a country that encompasses almost 4 million square miles of territory, it would be ludicrous to even suggest that the vote of those who inhabit a mere 319 square miles should dictate the outcome of a national election. Large, densely populated Democrat cities (NYC, Chicago, LA, etc) don’t and shouldn’t speak for the rest of our country.

TeamDepends's picture

We have no idea as to the veracity of this story, but it is entirely plausible. We know Barry was surrounded by commies from day one. His ideological, and perhaps biological, father Frank Marshall Davis chief among them. And don't forget his "I'll be more flexible after the election" open-mic gaffe to Medvedev (?).http://www.rense.com/general84/brck.htm

cheka's picture

vote fraud prevention - that is what the electoral college is there for

get 500 million illegals to vote in cali - your votes are capped at 55 bitchez

oooBooo's picture

Everything the government does benefits someone who runs government or influences government or is close to someone in government. I see them fail from time to time, I see second order and greater consequences. I see them not caring how what they do negatively impacts others, but everything they do is rational and competent from their point of view.

Incompetent government is merely a perception based on the notion that government is supposed to do X,Y, and Z. It is that notion that flawed. The government does not work for the good of the people or the nation or anything most people think it exists for.

Obama has been a very competent president in achieving the real goals which have nothing to do with campaign promises or the american people's well being.

Xena fobe's picture

Excellent comment.  Well said.  And it does not appear it can be transformed.  Govt helps those connected at the expense of those without connections. That's all it will ever be capable of.  Term limits sound good to me.

August's picture

"Barrack Obama" was grown in a protein tank, in one of the nicer suburbs of Dnipropetrovsk, for later insertion into an Indonesian madrasa, with an implausible backstory that only left-wing nit-wits would actually believe.

Unfortunately, there are large numbers of left-wing nit-wits.

localsavage's picture

What if we just audited those blue states to see just how many of those votes came from citizens?  As a CA resident, I can assure you that they have no interest in doing anything to keep the illegals from voting.  

rbg81's picture

Exactly right.  These blue states & cities have a vested interest in NOT following the law.  They will do everything they can to encourage all forms of voter fraud, including letting legal non-citizens & illegals vote.  Mechanism like early voting and motor voter (in states that issue licenses to illegals) aid vote fraud.  

These "sanctuay'"fuckers need to be prosecuted in the worst way.  Sessions need to make a few ugly examples of what happens when you commit treason (which IMHO is what a lot of this voter fraud is).  If Trump can manage to put a dent in that, he can win both the popular AND electoral votes next time.

froze25's picture

Can't wait for the FBI to take down those criminals.  It is treason. Now with Sessions as AG, shit will be hitting the fan.

drendebe10's picture

Ehen the Juan de Fuca late subluxes under the North American  plate, say adios to to the progressive liberal democrap sanctuaries of SF, Portland & Seattle.

ZD1's picture

Commifornia's totally corrupt Democrat mafia make sure that all illegals and dead people vote at least twice.

JRobby's picture

"Laugh Track Deafening! !!!"

They will find Hillary did not get anything close to 60 million votes.

And these idiot fucks want to get rid of the Electoral College. 

Badsamm's picture

He won the majority of states so fuck off already

drendebe10's picture

Ballpark numbers but he Won 3000 counties vs 600 by the lying cheating corrupt get outta jail free criminal "their good people" cunton

Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

Politifact shows Trump won 2,623 counties to Clinton's 489.

Thus, Trump won 84% of counties, Clinton 16%.

Folks in the hinterlands know bullshit, literal and figurative.

DosZap's picture

Fat Face Moore and a LOT of others said the same thng.

wisehiney's picture

What did Adam say the day before Christmas?

   "It's Christmas, Eve!

boattrash's picture

Wise...Merry Christmas to you, and the rest of the ZHrs!

TBT or not TBT's picture

Ho, ho,ho.  Now I have a machine gun!

boattrash's picture

Congrats! Sounds like a Very Merry Christmas at your place!

Tiger Rocks Dale's picture

"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to eat for lunch. "

GreatUncle's picture

Yep, but the lamb now knows who the fucking wovles and thinks "a glock packing lamb is the business".

Shoot the wolves, bury them in the ground and grow might fine grass to nibble upon.

Democracy or all names of different sytyles of governance is all bullshit. It is how much the elites are prepared to pay for their perks, a dictatorship and one = fuck all and a democracy over 51% population happy is the most expensive.

TRN's picture

The 2016 elections (Brexit, USA) proved that the lamps win sometimes! And when the lamps win all hell breaks loose!

boattrash's picture

"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to eat for lunch. "

...but in a Republic, the lamb has a gun.
Jeffersonian Liberal's picture

And in a representative democracy with an Electoral College, the two wolves get 1 vote and the lamb gets 1 votes.

The EC protects the minority from a purely mob rule.

And in a constitutional republic, the wolves are bound to respect the life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness of the lamb.

When those constitutional rights are violated, it is not only the right but the obligation of the lamb to revolt against the wolves and to water the grazing grass with the blood of the wolves.

bluez's picture

Some other commentator said this here back in August:

(+) Democracy: Two wolves and lamb deciding what to have for dinner.

(+) Republic: Two hundred wolves and one-hundred lambs vote for two wolves and a lamb who will decide what to have for dinner.

(+) Constitutional Republic : A republic whose decisions are restricted by a document that plainly says that lamb can never be on the menu. The Supreme Court eventually decides, 5 wolves to 4 lambs, that "mutton" isn't the same thing as "lamb."

(+) (I wish I knew who to attribute that to.)

Aside from the system of independent "electors", the electoral vote system does NOT favor urban area votes directly. It only favors states with small populations.

drendebe10's picture

The corrupt urban metro cesspools filled with elites & FSA have great track records in solving crime, poverty, homelessness and taxing the working people.  So of course they should decide who runs the country.  Har de har har har.  

BritBob's picture

She wouldn't have won if it was based on foreign policy.

Secretary Clinton on Falklands during press conference with Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, Buenos Aires 2010 : 'As to the first point, we want very much to encourage both countries to sit down. Now, we cannot make either one do so, but we think it is the right way to proceed. So we will be saying this publicly, as I have been, and we will continue to encourage exactly the kind of discussion across the table that needs to take place .'

Now if she'd been well-briefed or done some independent research (she must employ staff to help her out) Hillary wouldn't have fallen for that usurpation (seriously half the world was usurped in the 19th century) and those numerous resolutions that are just proposals from the UN Decolonisation Committee, a committee made up of member states like Russia, China, Cuba, Venezuela, Iran and Syria. Hm. Should have done better...

Falklands: 1833 Usurpation & UN Resolutions:



She could have just said that the islanders should determine how and by whom they are governed (which is UN policy) instead of pandering to CFK.

Looney's picture


Dear Santa,

Please return the Malvinas to Argentina.

Oh, and make BritBob go away or shut the fuck up. Pretty please?

Looney   ;-)

P.S. I'm leaving a gallon of Moonshine and cookies for ya. No milk this year. Sorry!

GreatUncle's picture

Report the link to MI5 / MI6 as a terrorist organisation and see how fast the fucking door gets kicked in.

BabaLooey's picture


My stock retort to any asshole that bleats out "But Hilllary won the popular vote!"


GreatUncle's picture

Never stated that ... sorry matey but she stole millions of vote but Trump won because he recognises the the USA is a union of states that must all be represented.

Post me the link of where I said that please. (I will come back to go check it).

BabaLooey's picture

Apologies GreatUncle

That was NOT directed at you.

I just tagged onto your comment.

I agree wholeheartedly that Trump ran a much smarter race.

GreatUncle's picture

Trump smarter and more honest too ... you know all there is about Trump because you heard the worst, if it was there is it was said.

Ain't none!

BabaLooey's picture

It drives libtards nuts.

"If ALL they could dredge up was a 15 year old locker-room talk, a 1995 tax return,.....with all their skull-duggery.....

With Trump's past ...then wow."

NOW - let's move on to Clinton....

(Then you unfurl the list like a loose spool of toilet paper).....


It's the biggest hypocrisy: These nutballs back a fucking criminal, and have no where to run - they just triple down and get even more stupid. Spew more hate. Like like fucking idiots.

The country dodged a MAJOR bullet in not getting this piece of SHIT Canks.

drendebe10's picture

Nailed it. Progressive liberal democraps are among the meanest nastiest hypocrite intolerant people on the face of the earth. Wutta buncha whiners & cry babies. Grow da fuk up.