Consumer Confidence Jumps To Highest Since 2001 As "Trump Hope" Soars

Tyler Durden's picture

There was an odd disconnect in last week's latest UMichigan consumer confidence print, according to which US consumers were the most confident in 12 years as a result of soaring stocks, even as their 5 year inflation expectations tumbled to record lows, which is ironic because the only reason the market was higher is due to higher inflation expectations by traders. In other words, a total, and utterly confused,  paradox.

Then moments ago, that "other" confidence index reported by the Conference Board, also printed at multi-year highs, surging from its November print of 109.4, and well above the 109 expected, to 113.7. This was the highest print since August 2001.

What drove the surge? What else: hope that Trump will make things better, to wit - the Expectations Index increased sharply from 94.4 to 105.5, even as the Present Situation Index decreased from 132.0 last month to 126.1. This was the biggest two month jump in expectations since December 2011.

"Consumer Confidence improved further in December, due solely to increasing Expectations which hit a 13-year high (Dec. 2003, 107.4)," said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. "The post-election surge in optimism for the economy, jobs and income prospects, as well as for stock prices which reached a 13-year high, was most pronounced among older consumers. Consumers' assessment of current conditions, which declined, still suggests that economic growth continued through the final months of 2016. Looking ahead to 2017, consumers' continued optimism will depend on whether or not their expectations are realized."

Meanwhile, reality was less pleasant: assessment of current conditions declined in December. Those saying business conditions are "good" decreased slightly from 29.7 percent to 29.2 percent, while those saying business conditions are "bad" increased from 15.2 percent to 17.3 percent.

Consumers' appraisal of the labor market was less positive than last month. Those stating jobs are "plentiful" declined from 27.8 percent to 26.9 percent, while those claiming jobs are "hard to get" increased from 21.2 percent to 22.5 percent.

Consumers' short-term outlook improved considerably in December. Those expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased from 16.4 percent to 23.6 percent, while those expecting business conditions to worsen declined from 9.9 percent to 8.7 percent.

Consumers' outlook for the labor market also improved markedly. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased from 16.1 to 21.0 percent. However, those anticipating fewer jobs also increased, from 13.5 percent to 14.0 percent. The percentage of consumers expecting their incomes to increase rose from 17.4 percent to 21.0 percent, while the proportion expecting a decrease fell moderately, from 9.2 percent to 8.6 percent.

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spastic_colon's picture

time to change this useless measure......any current stat that uses the stock market as part of the calc is a joke.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

And once again average Jane and Joe are pulled back into the hope and belief Bermuda Triangle.

When will 'we' learn that 'we' sustain the Ponzi, not 'them'.

FireBrander's picture

Trump, you moron...why are you taking credit for the market being up 10% since your win? Listen up dumbshit...MARKETS CAN GO DOWN TOO...and they can go DOWN a FUCKING LOT real fast...will you be taking credit for that?

The lesser evil won this election; but he's still a fucking dumbass.

rccalhoun's picture

the elephant in the room is the debt load and Mr Smartypants doesnt even see it.  He was only elected to keep the supreme

court from going completely down the shitter and to stop the tide of immigration.  there is no economic plan that is viable that

does not address the debt as the number one issue.  so, yes, trump is a dumb ass.

tazs's picture

"What drove the surge? What else: hope that Trump will make things better"

Jeez. How much does Trump pay ZH.

What about:

"What drove the surge? What else: fear that Trump will make things worse and people are stockpiling."

FireBrander's picture

Q: "What drove the surge? "

 

Cheap Money: You can get 0% financing for THREE FUCKING YEARS on a $500 COUCH around here...."Here take the fucking money AND the couch; no money down".

Mental IllnessWife works with "successful people" that constantly complain about debt and 50hr work weeks..driving $40k cars and living in 2500 sqft homes...Professionally "smart", but too fucking dumb to realize if they didn't buy at that expensive shit, they wouldn't HAVE TO work 50hrs a week...but without all those tokens of "success", they would be losers..pathetic.

King Tut's picture
King Tut (not verified) Dec 27, 2016 10:17 AM

Oh, Lawdy- Praise be to Orange Jesus!

We Are The Priests's picture

Laughed so hard I spit coffee on my puter.  I actually heard "Big Mama's" voice in my head when I read it.

I am Jobe's picture

From U of Michigan., time to close that University

Sonya B59's picture

yes ZH there are a lot of "disconnects".

But thanks to you guys here I am continuing to catch every turn in the US markets.

Thanks for sharing this info on here about three months ago. The analysis at Shepwave has been right on target:

COMPARE:

 

ZERO HEDGE ARTICLE ON GOLDMAN

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-19/if-everythings-so-awesome-why-are-goldman-insiders-dumping-stock-fastest-rate-5-year#comment-8493362

 

MarketWatch aticle on Goldman.

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-goldmans-2017-forecasts-for-stocks-oil-and-more-in-one-chart-2016-11-18

 

A bearish market watch article

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shipping-stocks-soar-again-as-fleeing-bears-turn-into-stampeding-bulls-2016-11-17                             

 

See the contradictions?

 

Watch this video. It shows the corruptness behind market watch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hgA9j-4dB0

 

Then compare the only analyst who is actually correctly calling the equity direction and oil and gold

 

https://t.co/LM81DZlPyF

https://www.facebook.com/Stock-Market-Technical-Analysis-Elliott-Wave-Theory-166578775325/

 

FB post…showing QQQ chart from Dec 2nd

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/166578775325/photos/a.10153488951800326.1073741827.166578775325/10154303985890326/?type=3  

LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD's picture
LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD (not verified) Sonya B59 Dec 27, 2016 11:48 AM

I appreciate the links but that's a LOT of clicking. Where will the market and gold be in six months?

<- Vote accordingly, up/down.

Dr.Carl's picture

They have been nailing the markets. You will need to watch their current short to mid term triggers. I am a retired financial adviser and would have to say that the are by far the best analyst that exists on Wall Street. The key analyst at Shepwave has been in the business for over 40 years. He is an ex-Goldman employee. 

LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD's picture
LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD (not verified) Dr.Carl Dec 29, 2016 8:33 PM

Oh, stupid me... I'm glad that I didn't follow the malware infested links.

 

Once again, the SchlongWave spammers refuse to buy advertising on ZH, preferring to violate the ZH Terms of Service, advertising via spam comments instead.  SchlongWave signed up for a bunch of accounts at roughly same time. SchlongWave rotates through the accounts posting spam comments (with URL hiding links, of course), then give themselves a small set of "thumbs ups," and "excellent analysis, thanks(!)," comments. All accounts are part of SchlongWave's dishonest comment-spam marketing plan.

The spam accounts and spam comments certainly show how dishonest SchlongWave is.  They must be desperate for money. Would anyone **really** use a company that uses dishonest spam comment advertising?  No doubt SchlongWave has a few more accounts spamming ZH, desperate for business but here are a few of them:

 

AliSONY

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We Are The Priests's picture

"What drove the surge? What else: hope that Trump will make things better"

So sad, and here I was thinking people were starting to wake up.  Boy, do I feel foolish.

Txpl9421's picture

Every day is a wonderful day for a Turkey.  Except the last thursday in November.

So it is with the "consumer."

DeeZ_nutZ's picture

NOT ONLY THE TURMP, TRUMP AND PUTIN WILL MAKE AMERIKA GREAT!

 

ACTUALLY, NOT JUST GREAT - FUCKING AWESOME!  

NOW, GO OUT AN BUY SHIT!

Phillyguy's picture

The basis of Economic “Hope” (Dec 27, 2017)

The US economy has still not recovered from the 2008 financial crash and still faces severe structural problems, including high unemployment coupled with anemic job growth- > 90% of “new” jobs are temp positions, low pay, no benefits and no job security. During the campaign, Trump’s signature slogan “Make America Great Again” was combined with a series of vague, incoherent and unrealistic economic proposals and by inference, bring back decent paying jobs and improve the economic outlook for the average working American, a message that clearly resonated with many voters. As usually the case in politics, it is easy, especially for a person who has never held public office, to make far reaching proposals addressing major voter concerns but more difficult getting them enacted.

In the “new economy” of the 21st century- Job growth, sales and profits no longer matter. The only thing of importance is having a Central Bank (FED) that will supply unlimited amounts of ultra-cheap money to large banks and corporations for stock buybacks and MA deals. In the words of David Stockman, since 2008, the stock market has been inflated with an “orgy of debt” (circa $4 trillion) from the FED. The poster child for this dysfunctionality is Caterpillar, where sales have declined 46 consecutive months (Link: www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-24/caterpillar-retail-sales-decline-46-co...) but CAT stock is a lofty $94/ share. In other words, share price has become completely disconnected from business performance- sales and profits. Unfortunately, there are plenty of other “CATs” out there who have been juicing their share price with stock buybacks using almost unlimited amounts of ultra-cheap money from the US FED.

Many Americans are excited about the prospect of a Trump Presidency and his “expertise” in business to turn the economy around. This begs the obvious question, are all of those rust-belt (”Fly over America”) Trump supporters “hopeful” about landing one those exciting new “temp jobs” being promoted by Trump’s incoming Labor secretary Andrew F. Puzder at his Hardee’s and Carl’s Jr. fast food outlets? I hate to throw cold water on this “hope” but the average American should be prepared for continuing decline in living standards as the economic vise continues to tighten, which will only accelerate under a Trump presidency.

There's picture

Thank you. Someone on this site is actually able to deliver a cogent and thoughtful post on economic and political matters. All without name calling and nasty words.

junction's picture

The United States economy never really recovered from the dot.com crash of 2001 and the World Trade Center attacks.  Creating 100,000 TSA and NSA jobs for security checkers at airports to grope passengers and computer geeks to watch our every Internet move is not the way to improve the U.S. economy.  Trump has not paid income taxes in 40 years, just like George Soros and most Wall Street hedge fund operators who know all the tax dodges.  Trump, like Obama, is another peddler of "hopium".  

itstippy's picture

Broadly speaking, a typical middle-class house here in the U.S. is 2,500 square feet with two and a half baths, a two car garage, central air, a built-in dishwasher, etc.  A typical middle-class car is loaded with goodies and costs $30K-$40K, and most typical middle-class families have two of them.  Typical middle-class furnishings and wardrobe are very, very nice.  A typical cheeseburger at a middle-class restaurant is 1/3lb.  Etc.

I'm not sure that an increase in U.S. "consumer confidence" is a good thing.  I'm not sure just how much "better" these middle-class citizens think a Trump administration is capable of making their American middle-class lifestyle.

Is there such a thing as a "savers' confidence" measure to track?  One that doesn't include stawks and real estate valuations, I mean. 

There's picture

Consumer confidence is really up for the .01%.

StreetObserver's picture

Rabid Trump supporter here. Taking a wait and see approach.

Will he keep his promises?  Is it possible for him to keep his promises?

Let's keep him to his promises to the extent we can. Prepare for disappointment, there will be some.

One thing is certain however, Clinton would have been a serving of guaranteed disaster with a side of hate whitey and misandrist propaganda and policy. Maybe a shooting war with Russian as a minor detail.

As to Obama, screw him and his 'legacy'. He's done a couple of things right but his Obamanation has been a disaster. Why are you still voting for him by spending your hard earned money in what's left of his administration?

We're saving all our discretionary purchases  for President Trump's administration. Carry it forward.