Narrative Breaks - Continuing Jobless Claims Soar Most Since 2009 Following Trump's Election

Tyler Durden's picture

This does not fit with the narrative. Continuing Jobless Claims are up over 6% in the weeks following Donald Trump's election...


This is the biggest surge since May 2009...


Finally, while Jeffrey Gundlach's "granddaddy of recession indicators" is based on the unemployment rate, we not that initial jobless claims are rapidly approaching their 2-year average - which in the past has probabilstically been followed by a recession...


Still stocks are at record highs so what could possibly go wrong?

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Looney's picture


The next month’s Jobless Claims report will be the best in 8 years - it will include 0bama.   ;-)


Pickleton's picture

And then a month later, it'll be the worst in 8 years so that an Army of economically illiterate dimocrat mouth breathers can run brethlessly to their nearest comment section to proclaim "Trump's policies (that of course wont be enacted in a budget for a year) ruined Obama's WUNDERBAR economy".

SomethingSomethingDarkSide's picture

Yes, Pickleton. It will be the same walk back as last year. Only in April or May will they get the testicles to vocalize the words "Rate Hike" again.. 

They either have 0% or 100% knowledge of what they are doing, and either points to more can kicking before a TBTF blows up.

spastic_colon's picture

hmmmm.......strange that all of the "good" indicators are up and all of the "bad" indicators are.........well.......up.....couldnt be a set up for the incoming admin could it?? nah.....TPTB would never do such a thing / s

Vatican_cameo's picture


These figures are from the same Asshats that claim "The Unemployment Rate" is less than 5%, yet there are almost 96 Million people not working?  Funny how all this Doom and Gloom should appear just as the Magic Negro leaves office (and it's high was just before he entered the White House).  These clowns probably skew all the NOAA data on weekends to keep themselves busy.

Ghost of PartysOver's picture

Some Libtard in the BLS is still pissed that Trump won therefore using a different seasonal adjustment.  So petty.

StackShinyStuff's picture

It fits just fine.  They were just not COUNTING the continuing claims leading up to the election.  Or it was the Russians...

JRobby's picture

94 million part time jobs added on Obama's watch. How many full time jobs lost? Anybody? Anyone? Bueller?

Plenty of NON MSM sources

Stroke's picture

OOOUUUU The part time Christmas help has been laid off

Happens after Christmas every year

knukles's picture

It's Official

It's Obama's Fault!

Of course we'll have to double de-seasonally adjust the data to find out what's in it

Muddy1's picture

Will Trump administration go back to the "old" way of calculating unemployment to count all of those who just quit working?  Will he give us true unemployment numbers?  He criticized Obama for the phony calculations he used to show unemployment going down when Obama just stopped counting people who had given up on finding a job.  He campaigned on how many people really were out of work.  He's already bragging on how man jobs he's keeping in America and yesterday boasted that Sprint will bring back 5,000 jobs. 

So, will he give us the accurate unemployment measurement?  I hope so. 

Will he go back to the old way of calculating CPI and include fuel even though causes volatile swings in the CPI?  I hope so.

I just remember the old adage, figures lie and liars figure.

MFL5591's picture

This was started by Clinton not the current clown!

spastic_colon's picture

you mean mark-to-market and reality? that could mean adjustments to many if not all rates/currencies/indexes/prices etc etc.....if he decided to do this do it early.........I also recall rhetoric about the fed.

Hopeless for Change's picture

Blowback from Oballah's BLS?

firewolfsblog's picture

unemployed lives matter

MFL5591's picture

Anyone who is literate can help explain what Trump had to do with this?

Oldwood's picture

I still contend this is all a setup. Putting Trump in position to take the blame for the coming depression. All the economic factors for it have been in place and growing for years and only growing. Now we have the hyper inflated stock market poised for a nut punch. I also believe this will all happen BEFORE inauguration.....preventing it from happening. 



 The life's blood of tyranny. Do we really think these global Communists are just going to quit or go away. Trump is an end of game threat for them.

They can take power because the American people demand it, demand to be saved. Easily half of TRUMP supporters will throw him under the bus's the moment they face real threat,, and as far as it all is, the left has successfully put enough doubt in people's minds about Trump that it wouldn't take much.

I'm looking for a major collapse ten days prior to inauguration. This is time enough to get their fear mongering machine into high gear but not long enough for minds to grasp what has happened.

Once the inauguration has been postponed until the economy stabilizes, the election fraud is fully investigated and the Russian threat neutralized, then and only then will they resume our constitutional republic....Tweaked of course to make sure the electors NEVER choose poorly again.

JRobby's picture

I believe they said the same thing when Obama took office?

Then what happened? A $30 trillion bail out of the world financial system caused by worthless assets gambled on with massive derivative positions.

Oldwood's picture

It's not just about blame. It's about holding onto the throne while also deflecting the blame for the collapse.

Further, Obama NEVER received the near universal trashing that Trump has. There was never a threat to invalidate the election of Obama. The left is hammering Trump daily of his "unfitness" to serve, plus recounts and electoral college usurpation attempts.

Nothing even close to the same.

Ban KKiller's picture

Hey, I'm going back to work full time! As I am over 60 I can read and write...ha-ha..

Alternative energy company.

Citizen G's picture

Part time seasonal jobs ending.

wisehiney's picture

Highly deflationary.

Grandad Grumps's picture

To massively increase jobs here in the U.S. only two things need to be fixed.

1. Get rid of big regulation and costs that make it impossible for small business to form and prosper (both at the Federal and local llevel) The environment is hostile to small business formation.
2. Vigorously prosecute "Too Big to Jail" crime, whether banking or corporate.

There are other things that would help in the long term, such as getting the federal government completely out of education and private property rights. The Federal government over-reach of the past 30 years has destroyed America.

Insist on free and fair markets and vigorously (personally) punish those who rig markets, including the central bankers.

bloofer's picture

Your assessment is absolutely correct. The economy is dying because government is strangling it. People are not working and starting businesses because they are not allowed to work and start business. The federal government needs to get completely out of education, housing, health care, and agriculture. In fact it needs to be about 99% shut down.

After that, state, county, and municipal government needs to be about 99% shut down and to get out of education, housing, health care, and agriculture, and stripped of their ability to strangle small business.

All these endless millions of government employees need to be thrown out of work, from schoolteachers to codes inspectors, as well as all the millions who feed on government funding and subsidies and who derive their income from the legal system. Let all these people get a fucking job, or start a fucking business doing something productive.

JRobby's picture

Small business growth IS THE JOB CREATION ENGINE, period. 80+% of businesses employ 50 or less people.

No one has been willing to start a business or hire in the "Obama Economy". Corporations have laid off and bought back shares instead of investing in growth to meet stock price and EPS goals.

FreedomGuy's picture

Grumps and blooper pretty much nailed it.

What works against that is the ingrained assumptions that it is natural for government to rule and without them everything would collapse into mayhem.

Leftists are pessimists by nature. They assume everyone is as amoral as they are. They know they need external control. They do not trust their fellow man nor legal remedies. It is why they always and inevitably push for autocratic states. Democratic socialism is just a stepping stone to either National or Soviet Socialism.

Our prosperity will always correlate directly with our freedom.

ejmoosa's picture

Meanwhile Bloomberg reports:

Jobless Claims in U.S. Decline for a Third Week in Last Four

Jtrillian's picture

If you think Trump can fix what is coming, you do not understand the problem.  Trump gives the corrupt ruling class/deep state the perfect excuse to unleash hell on what is left of the Western economy in order to motivate the masses to hand over what is left of their civil liberties and complete the Orwellian society while stealing what is left of their wealth. 

It's not a matter of if, but when.  The only thing that can stop it now is for the masses to rise up and overthrow the corrupt ruling class.  I just don't see the masses motivated or organized enough to pull it off at this time. 

Oldwood's picture

While in our guts we understand, we have also been indoctrinated to believe we still have too much to lose by rising up. Those indoctrinated from the left see nothing to lose and only gains through state tyranny.

FreeShitter's picture

The masses vote, voting is a scam. So no, the masses will never rise up, they are sheeple and rightfullly so.

Oldwood's picture

Less than half of the "masses" vote, so that must mean that the majority of citizens are fucking geniuses.

Bemused Observer's picture

Don't underestimate those masses of 'sheeple'.

Sure, you don't hear squat from them about anything, but do not make the mistake of assuming that the silence equals acquiescence. The sheep are lazy and over-tolerant at the moment, but this is not a steady state, and can change lurchingly fast. There ARE limits to what people will tolerate, fairly hard limits too, and the responses are very predictable, just pick up a history book.

As I've said before, the masses will put up with shit until they decide to stop putting up with shit. Which they have done many, many times in the past, and when they go off, they are NOT very 'sheeplike' don't be fooled by the current quiet complacency. A lot of those folks are going to surprise you when you finally manage to hit their switch. The historical record of such occasions is very bloody and nasty, and has never resulted in a sustained 'win' for the would-be rulers...these are NOT good odds for the elite.

The slap-down cometh...

Jtrillian's picture

Historically speaking, the masses did not have fluoridated water, prescription pills, and television "programming" to keep them complacent.  I suspect that the American public will endure far more suffering than our predecessors for that reason.  And because critical thinking is a lost art, they will hate whomever the mainstream media tells us to be mad at.  It will be a lot harder to break the will of the ruling class this time around.  Not saying it isn't possible.  Just saying that it will require a mass awakening, and the rejection of mainstream media.  While there is a small minority who can see what is happening (and I mean a very small minority), it seems we are long way off from that as a whole.  There are far more people who are passionately ignorant than those who are actually informed.  It has been my experience in speaking with those around me that most WANT to believe the system works, that billionaires actually care about the middle class, that the financial crisis is behind us, that fiat currency is money, that stimulus is good, that the economy is strong, that Big Brother only cares about terrorists, and that mainstream media is reliable. 

In other words, it's going to have to get a lot worse before people are motivated to do something about it.  When the masses do finally decide to take action, I am very skeptical if they will know who the true enemy is or if they will just fight it out among themselves while the ruling class sits back and watches. 

I hope I'm wrong.

FreedomGuy's picture

I disagree with your premise but I do agree it is likely that bad things are on the way. I do not think Trump knows much at all about economics or monetary policy.

This whole "masses" thing is impossible. If the masses (I hate that damned term.) knew anything they would not elect or suffer the incompetent systems we have now. They readily elect morons who are probably similar to themselves. Ever see what Congressmen come from the hood?

They/we might rise up but there will be no solving of anything. It will break the current paradigm but what replaces it is a crap shoot and probably worse. Think Robespierre.

Kprime's picture

not yet.  they are not hungry enough, yet.

Jtrillian's picture

When they do get hungry, I would argue they are more likely to turn on themselves before they seek to overthrow the ruling class.   Mainstream media is very good at "divide and conquer" tactics for this very reason.  Keep them fighting among themselves and the ruling class continues to do whatever it wants. 

t0mmyBerg's picture

this has to be the worst article i have ever seen on ZH.  First of all it doesnt even say what the claims number was, which i see in bloomberg is 265k.  second that is down from 275k the week before.  and it is pretty much in line with what the number has been forever.  it is bs such as this that is grist for the fake news idiotss mill.  please rewrite to make it more in line with reality, less sensational.  ffs

Rockfish's picture

Because this site has went to the dogs.

GeezerGeek's picture

Not to mention the ability to write proper sentences. "It done gone away."

spastic_colon's picture

headline is about "continuing" claims not "initial" claims

razorthin's picture

Because the fascist regime has no reason to keep cooking the numbers now...  Or, maybe it does - in the other direction.

jamesmmu's picture

Election is over and jobless jump, I'm shocked! /s



Rockfish's picture

Filings for U.S. unemployment benefits fell for a third week in the last four, showing a resilient labor market. Jobless claims declined by 10,000 to 265,000 in the week ended Dec. 24 from a six-month high in the prior period, a Labor Department report ...

Byte Me's picture

O'Santa's little Snowflake elves got the green slip??

Well  run up the flags!!!

Christmas is cancelled - OH WAIT - Bloody Monday falls into place hmmm?

What we need here OBVIOUSLY, is Moar SOROS funding. Y'know, - to take up the slack in the labour market.

[While you're at it, "cruel and unusual punishment" does NOT apply to trash like SOROS, who is an obvious illegal immigrant (or traitor if the toss gets argued) - so picric acid suppositories and thermite fuses are 'allowed'.]

To Hell In A Handbasket's picture

Full employment has been a myth for at least 45 years and all the retards on ZH, who complain about the unemployed and how "they should get off the arses and work/EBT cards" etc etc. Is just regurgitating MSM and .gov propaganda. There simply isn't enough well paid jobs to go around. I grew up when my dad earned enough money, allowing my mum to to be a homemaker. That ended with my generation, where both parents had to work at least for a while to make ends meet.

Now the working class/underclass and increasingly middle class millennials cant even make ends meet, with both mother and father working. There is a new term for it in England. We call them "The working poor"  We can't even spin the tale of  "If you work hard, put in the long hours, you'll be able to save and buy a house/holidays etc" Its a lie and the working poor know its a lie. As many of us have been saying, irrespective of Trump, or Killary, there is fuck all anybody incoming president can do to reverse this jobs decline. A war, destruction and a major reset is what TPTB have planned. It's what they always do.

Kprime's picture

we are half a generation away from the unfortunate situation of mandatory killing of superfluous humans for survival.  Hopefully citizens will know to direct the killing at politicians and wall-street.  The unemployed don't need to be killing each other.  They should be killing the totally useless humans, who produce and provide nothing, those who have destroyed the country in their never ending greed for money and power.

isn't it amusing how in all of history when nations go bad it always turns out the average citizens have to kill the "elite" in order to restore balance to nature.

Jim Shoesesta's picture

I am going to so enjoy saying its all Obamamorons fault for the next 8 years. 

Stan522's picture

Well, using the same excuse of blaming Bush that obama gave when he usurped power, IT'S obama's FAULT...!

InncntBstndr's picture

Trump won't be relying on a "narrative".  He will require results.

Thebighouse's picture

All government statistics have been pure bullshit for 8 years.  They are CREATED to support an agenda that is fiscal ruin.  That agenda is to use as much debt as possible to make the world seem ok.   It ain't ok and has not been ok. Debt is not a cure, it is a curse. Krugman is a curse.  Obama gets a peace prize and then supports 8 yrs of war and conflict.  Krugman gets a nobel prize and then trashes the world economy.   Whoever supported this agenda needs to be taken to the woodshed.