"Blind Faith" Has Ended: The World Is A Complicated Place (And Getting More So)

Tyler Durden's picture

"I’ve got news for you," warns Bloomberg's Richard Breslow, the world is a complicated place and getting more so, not less...

This is not your happy, some would say mind-numbing, environment where the only thing that ultimately mattered was blind faith in the global commitment of central banks to “do whatever it takes”. It will not serve investors well to fall back on analysis by reductio ad simplicate.

 

 

Did markets make their moves since the minutes because the Fed was dovish? That’s a stretch. I suppose it is possible to sift through and find the parts that might support such a case. But it would be a selective and incomplete reading of the words. Especially in light of Chair Yellen’s post-decision press conference.

 

The dollar was down in Asia today. Just think for a minute. Might it have had something to do with with the squeezes dramatically strengthening both onshore and offshore yuan rather than a belated understanding that the Fed might still take data into account going forward?

 

 

The offshore yuan is up 2% over two days. That’s a rarity, to say the least. But not that surprising as overnight funding rates are soaring. This squeeze feels more like a squash to all those traders who thought being long dollars against the yuan was a no-brainer trade to have on for the new year.

 

How many people cut risk at year-end but figured there was no reason to get out of those juicy 12-month NDFs? That was the safe trade. But believe me, they are now finding stops littered all over the place. Meanwhile, sending every Asian currency rebounding versus the dollar in sympathy and spooking regional bond markets but good.

 

Januarys aren’t like any other month. Everyone starts at zero again and losses feel larger than at other times.

 

It’s only the 5th, but people who only jumped back in Tuesday are already mourning the loss of their high water mark. This is how panics happen. It’s why we have volatility. But you’ll only understand what’s going on if you look beyond the U.S. borders.

This isn’t a Fed story. If the world looks different today then yesterday, it’s not because of the minutes, but rather a lack of perspective.

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HRH Feant's picture
HRH Feant (not verified) Jan 5, 2017 7:57 PM

I feel sorry for all those third-world assholes that think moving to the USSA or EUSSA will solve all of their problems! HA! Get in fucking line! Modern society is complicated. It is a lot of fucking work. Especially when you get sent to a call center in India. Wait until that call center sells your data and everyone, and his sister, is calling you 24/7/365 to fix your Windows computer. Welcome to modern society and the 3rd ring of hell!

LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD's picture
LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD (not verified) HRH Feant Jan 5, 2017 8:25 PM

Solve all of their problems? We're over there trying to STOP them from building power plants and things that will greatly improve their standard of living becasue a snail darter, or similar, might be nearby.

PUNCHY's picture

My "computer fixers" all hail from what sounds like the Phillipines (must be all the sweary words they use in their intro I suppose)

What worries me even more is when I get a totally uncalled for series of calls on my PRIVATE CELL PHONE number from a gentleman in Switzerland, caller ID's don't lie, who wants to advise me on investments, exactly 24 hours before one of mine reaches its maturity date. THAT concerns me, not some Far East Klown obviously trying to lift my passwords.

HRH Feant's picture
HRH Feant (not verified) PUNCHY Jan 6, 2017 2:00 AM

Yep. I agree. I would fall off my couch if someone from Switzerland called my cell number and started pitching investments. I love a nice German accent, don't get me wrong, but damn, calling me at home or on my cell would be freaky.

Have you done any searches lately? I did. It cost me $1 and I was able to see past addresses going back 20 years. Same for phone numbers. The scary part was how some of those search engines dig up aquaintances, and family members and all of their old email addresses. Pretty fucking creepy. All for the cost of $1.

buzzsaw99's picture

if the usa 10y keeps up with the violent moves katie bar the door

MJ4Vets's picture

I want all those complicit, in the destruction of civilization to lose everything. I want good men and women out for blood. The evil NWO/Deep State/7th Story Group/Neocons/ whatever-the-fuck-name-you-want-to-call-them, to be Worm Food. If ya haven't figured it out yet, it's a fight for the very existence of our species, not just a mere nation.

HokumYTrader's picture
HokumYTrader (not verified) Jan 5, 2017 8:23 PM

Everything is awesome in Trumpistan

Cassandra.Hermes's picture

i'm in cash and waiting, hope will drop 30-40%

CRM114's picture

Also all in cash, as (on my advice) are all my relatives.

Unlike 2008, which I saw coming 2 years off, I have no clue when or exactly how things will go horribly wrong this time. The structural problems are obvious, but Government stats are so either wrong or useless, and fraudulent manipulation of markets so endemic, that there is not enough good data to predict anything.

The following things I am sure of.

Could take up to 3 years to happen.

The actual crisis will likely be very rapid.

There will be no quick fix this time.

I have a fair amount in physical cash. It could be that bad.

Any thoughts on the above?

SilvaDolla's picture

In a Post-Fed world, if someone walked up to me trying to trade me a stack of debt notes for services or consumables, I'd laugh in their face.

Cash!? Bwahahahahahahaha!!!

CRM114's picture

If it's going to be THAT bad, I'd be carrying, but not cash.

PUNCHY's picture

Yes, follow Max Keiser. He's seen through these effers and their BS for the past 8 years. The 00.1% despise Max, with good reason I guess.

Stay in cash. As Grandpa always said: "If you are going to panic then panic first"

You are welcome.

fbazzrea's picture

don't stay there long... inflation train and miners now leaving the station.

Dr.Carl's picture

Liberals not allowed 

 

The markets may be rigged. But that doesn't mean they are not predictable.

 

 

 

https://t.co/LM81DZlPyF

 

 

 

Best stock analysts  around.  All former Goldman Sachs guys

 

Or EWI, they are good too but are too expensive to get the good stuff and really at the end of the day not as good as ShepWave

LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD's picture
LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD (not verified) Dr.Carl Jan 5, 2017 10:14 PM

SchlongWave uses the following accounts to post TOS violating spam comment advertising on ZH: AliSONY, Babs.St.Louis, Billy G, Chi Juan, Dr.Carl, ErikE, FemDayTrader, Irvingm, John Beau, MexInvest, MikeM54, P Christmas Carole, RonnieM, Sonya B59, StevieTexie, Van G, and wisetrader224.

Any organization that uses spam comments to advertise is a dishonest, unethical, organization - at best. SchlongWave has set up 15 to 20 accounts to advertise via a slew of daily comment spam, often times causing comment threads to become unreadable. They often times use their multiple spam accounts to give themselves MANY thumbs ups, and "excellent analysis" responses to themselves, trying to convince people that their spam comments are appreciated.

SchlongWave, the ZH users are not the morons you think they are. You're not going to win them over by spamming the crap out of comment sections, begging for $39/month from people to "subscribe" to your crap. Please stop unethical comment spamming of ZH. Use your time to focus on making decent market calls instead. Then you just might be able to get, and keep, customers.

Dr.Carl's picture

Liberals not allowed 

 

The markets may be rigged. But that doesn't mean they are not predictable.

 

 

 

https://t.co/LM81DZlPyF

 

 

 

Best stock analysts  around.  All former Goldman Sachs guys

 

Or EWI, they are good too but are too expensive to get the good stuff and really at the end of the day not as good as ShepWave

LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD's picture
LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD (not verified) Dr.Carl Jan 5, 2017 10:14 PM

SchlongWave uses the following accounts to post TOS violating spam comment advertising on ZH: AliSONY, Babs.St.Louis, Billy G, Chi Juan, Dr.Carl, ErikE, FemDayTrader, Irvingm, John Beau, MexInvest, MikeM54, P Christmas Carole, RonnieM, Sonya B59, StevieTexie, Van G, and wisetrader224.

Any organization that uses spam comments to advertise is a dishonest, unethical, organization - at best. SchlongWave has set up 15 to 20 accounts to advertise via a slew of daily comment spam, often times causing comment threads to become unreadable. They often times use their multiple spam accounts to give themselves MANY thumbs ups, and "excellent analysis" responses to themselves, trying to convince people that their spam comments are appreciated.

SchlongWave, the ZH users are not the morons you think they are. You're not going to win them over by spamming the crap out of comment sections, begging for $39/month from people to "subscribe" to your crap. Please stop unethical comment spamming of ZH. Use your time to focus on making decent market calls instead. Then you just might be able to get, and keep, customers.

Dr.Carl's picture

You are missing about another 50 to 60 others at least 

 

Liberals not allowed 

 

The markets may be rigged. But that doesn't mean they are not predictable.

 

 

 

https://t.co/LM81DZlPyF

 

 

 

Best stock analysts  around.  All former Goldman Sachs guys

 

Or EWI, they are good too but are too expensive to get the good stuff and really at the end of the day not as good as ShepWave

LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD's picture
LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD (not verified) Dr.Carl Jan 5, 2017 10:49 PM

Well, you and your SchlongWave scam company are missing ethics and honesty.

I WIN!!!

Dumb fuck spammer.

Dr.Carl's picture

You are missing about another 50 to 60 others at least 

 

Liberals not allowed 

 

The markets may be rigged. But that doesn't mean they are not predictable.

 

 

 

https://t.co/LM81DZlPyF

 

 

 

Best stock analysts  around.  All former Goldman Sachs guys

 

Or EWI, they are good too but are too expensive to get the good stuff and really at the end of the day not as good as ShepWave

wholy1's picture

Associating "Faith" with parasitic, predatory sociopathic financialist contributing NOTHING to REAL productivity or the betterment of Mankind is ridiculous.

gdpetti's picture

But that is always the way this game is played... the usual manipulation of the masses through control of the 'message' and messenger.. .which is why they are having  problems with their 'fake news'... so few are listening/watching anymore... and those are mostly dying off... the rest ignore the BS of govt media and go to the internet or outlets like RT, while still able to, but that is just a small % of the herd... the rest of them mostly 'do their thing'... social media, chit-chat, video games - usually war based ones supported by the DOD/CIA/Mossad etc...

THe old messengers are dying out and the PTB haven't properly controlled the new messengers...  not yet... but plan to soon.. but time is running out for this last chapter of the script.... and if they don't realize that, then they are expendable tools and nothing more... the smart ones retire 'to spend more time with their family'... even if that family is fellow members of the club.

'Faith' is key to manipulating the herd, and the loss of this faith in the masses is just more proof that the old ways aren't working and the police state needs to come out of the closet.. regime change in the name of protecting and serving... as usual... that fake revolution meme... create chaos and create a national call to arms to demand the govt troops protect us... from those evil doers... same script everytime.