Leading Economists Experience Panic Attack In Chicago Over Lost Credibility

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

Over the weekend, America’s leading economists gathered in Chicago for their annual AEA conference. The mood perfectly encapsulates the current state of affairs of a profession that is more to blame for our current predicament than any other.

The Wall Street Journal reports:

CHICAGO—The nation’s leading economists are suffering an identity crisis as many of the institutions they helped build and causes they advanced have come in for public scorn and rejection at the ballot box.

 

The angst was on display this weekend at the annual conference of the American Economic Association, the profession’s largest gathering. The conference is a showcase for agenda-setting research, a giant job fair for the nation’s most promising young economists and, this year, the site of endless discussion about how to rebuild trust in the discipline.

 

Many academic economists have been champions of free trade and globalization, ideas under assault among rising populist movements in advanced economies around the world. The rise of President-elect Donald Trump, with his fierce rhetoric against elites, in particular, left many at this conference questioning their place in the world.

 

“The economic elite did many things to undermine their credibility while people’s economic fortunes were taking a turn for the worse,” said Steven Davis, an economist at the University of Chicago. But a road map for regaining trust is elusive…

 

A separate survey from Marketplace-Edison Research, conducted in October, asked U.S. adults how much they trusted data about the economy that is reported by the federal government. A quarter of respondents said they “do not trust it at all” while another 19% said they somewhat distrust it.

 

That is difficult to comprehend at a conference like this, where 13,000 attendees assembled for more than 500 presentations, many of which are built around findings that heavily use that government data.

 

This year, academics are out in the cold. During the election The Wall Street Journal contacted every former member of the CEA, including those going back to President Richard Nixon. None had been tapped as an adviser to Mr. Trump’s campaign, nor did any publicly endorse him.

 

The president-elect is “not particularly interested in hearing from the academic economist club,” Mr. Davis said.

That’s the best thing Trump’s got going for him.

That could leave him missing needed advice. Still, the profession may have brought this on itself, said Joseph Stiglitz, a Columbia professor and Nobel winner. Anger among voters was to be expected, because globalization in particular was sold in part with broken promises.

 

“In many ways, economic science was more honest,” he said, referring to the fact that some would win but others could lose from free trade. “It only said that under certain conditions winners could compensate losers, not that they would.”

Naturally, they didn’t.

Moving along, it’s not just economists who are struggling with the post-November 8th environment. As Politico reports, Hillary campaign operatives are even hiding the work they did with her campaign in a attempt to get jobs:

The job market is about to get even more crowded for Washington Democrats, as thousands of Obama appointees join the hundreds of Clinton campaign staffers looking for employment.

 

There’s rarely been less demand for their services. 

 

The Trump tornado is tearing up post-election planning around the Beltway. It’s not just that those 4,000 administration jobs are no longer available to Hillary for America alumni, or that failed Senate candidates like Russ Feingold and Katie McGinty won’t be able to hire their staff on the Hill. There are also the lobbying firms, trade associations and corporate government affairs offices that are pitching senior Obama aides’ resumes into the round file while scrambling to hire operatives with Republican connections.

 

It’s insult to injury for a generation of young operatives who are still managing their shock and grief from Hillary Clinton’s loss. And for those who want to fight to keep President Barack Obama’s legacy from being erased, there aren’t a lot of places ready to pay them to do it.

 

“It feels like there are just thousands of us trying to find a job, and there are no jobs,” said Mira Patel, a longtime Clinton aide who went from her Senate office to the State Department and, starting last summer, her presidential campaign.

 

“I have two sets of resumes,” said Kessler-Dellaccio. One highlights all her work fundraising and recruiting volunteers for Clinton. But after repeatedly seeing job postings looking for Republican connections, Kessler-Dellaccio says she “quite literally stripped out all of the Hillary stuff” out of her alternate C.V.

 

She added, “I have friends who even on LinkedIn have removed any Democratic Party alignment because they’re afraid if employers see too much Hillary stuff they’re not going to get a job.”

 

More seasoned Clinton aides had tried to warn the younger generations who’d spent their whole adulthoods under President Obama that Democratic dominance wasn’t necessarily permanent.

 

“Never count on a Democratic administration,” Patel recalled being told. “I was like, ‘Oh, come on, this is gonna be great.’”

Kinda sums it up, doesn’t it.

Before getting too demoralized, Clinton campaign staff can always look to the kind folks at Google to help them get back on their feet. As The Daily Caller noted:

A Google executive organized an online resume bank for outgoing White House staff and campaign staffers from the Clinton, Obama and other Democratic campaigns in order to help them find work, according to the Wall Street Journal. Laslo Bock, Google’s outgoing Chief of Human Resources is leading an effort to help Hillary For America staff and others find work after the devastating losses. 

Not that this should come as a surprise when it comes to Google. The company’s executives were always unabashedly “with her.”

Recall: Meet “Groundwork” – Google Chairman Eric Schmidt’s Stealth Startup Working to Make Hillary Clinton President

*  *  *

Chris Arnade summed it all up rather well in a series of tweets...

1. There are experts who study complex systems: pilots, surgeons, civil engineers... Then there experts who often blown smoke: like economists

2. It is not that economics is not a science -- it is. It is that it is a science with high incentives (power and money), to do it badly.

3. Wall Street pays big bucks for bad Econ. Think tanks pay big bucks for bad Econ.  And politicians listen way too much to bad Econ.

4. My bumper sticker for 2017: listen to economists less, sociologist more... Oh. And pay real experts: pilots, & engineers etc more

5. There is good economics being done. But it not often stuff getting money or attention... "Stocks will drop if Trump wins!" gets attention

6. Hallmark of good Eco is same as most good science-- knowing the limitations and assumptions of the field.

7. The end

 

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CRM114's picture

Hey, I'm a pilot and an engineer. Maybe that's why I expected the 2008 crisis when none of the economists did. And knew Trump would win and Brexit would get voted for.

I don't believe the Government stats either.

BabaLooey's picture

Gee...a gaggle of asshats, gurgling goop.

Fuck em.

Hopeless for Change's picture

Every day I am more and more thankful that Trump won.

jcaz's picture

Never a better time for Iran to hit Chicago with that lode of uranium that Obama just gave them- do it quick, before the meeting is over-

Two birds, one atom device-  problems solved.....

Cluster_Frak's picture

Some did. In fact Lehman's very own called it just right, Ethan Harris I believe was his name. unfortunately, he was not taken seriously. Speaking of Chicago, yeah, we knew something was up and that there will be a correction. That was an open secret. If stuck up economists missed it, oh well. fuck em. 

keep the bastards honest's picture

exactly.CRM doing real work with accountability.

Real Science struggles against  corporate/MSM science...  Look at Dr Michael Janith  constantly put down for his earthquake predictons as Dutchsinse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rhWQ-jcWeQ

Mainstream  fake 'scientists" at universites and institutions etc  troll and deny his work.  7years of breakthrough original research in public on youtube show earthquake pattern of movement  round the globe, timing, size and close to site.  Breakthroughs on material which the Established Science  says is too complex. Subsisting on  tiny donations..

Research cannot be posted in Journals unless one is employed by a univeristy or such recognised, so that knowledge is controlled. He gets shutdowns because of his basic life saving factual research shows reality  is not what gelogical theory says. "appeals to auhtority are a logical fallacy" .

Anyone in the US South america Canada alaska aleutian island Japan europe Fiji greenland bulgaria indonesia India China Iran Greece Italy NZ etc etc... all around the Pacific plate  and going  extended out east, west and north, could be glad to  catch Dutchsinse. The quakes are bigger. THere are voalnoes active which were not for a long time. He shows where fracking zones are taking the  pressure and the  movement east in the USA.

markpower49's picture

Hillary supporters should be shunned, both professionally and personally. They are proven scumbags. Employers need to check applicants social media for evidence.

Batman11's picture

It’s time to realise today’s economics is a disaster area

We worshipped at the alter of economic liberalism for four decades.

We put in place a technocrat elite to ensure the diktat’s of today’s economics were adhered to.

Today we have “secular stagnation” aka “the new normal”.

Why is economics so bad?

Let’s start at the beginning.

The problems soon started to emerge as the Classical Economists observed the world of small state, raw capitalism around them:

Adam Smith:

“The Labour and time of the poor is in civilised countries sacrificed to the maintaining of the rich in ease and luxury. The Landlord is maintained in idleness and luxury by the labour of his tenants. The moneyed man is supported by his extractions from the industrious merchant and the needy who are obliged to support him in ease by a return for the use of his money. But every savage has the full fruits of his own labours; there are no landlords, no usurers and no tax gatherers.”

Adam Smith has observed the ruling class are bone idle and are maintained by the hard work of others, economics is going to be a huge problem.

We can see immediately that we have got things upside down.

Small state, raw capitalism trickles up and not down, and this was observed in the real world of the 18th Century.

The trickle up of capitalism is achieved by:

1)  Those with excess capital collect rent and interest.

2)  Those with insufficient capital pay rent and interest.

Today’s aristocracy are maintained in a similar manner although they will also have a wide range of investments to maintain them in ease and luxury.

Nothing has changed that much.

We lowered taxes on the wealthy and inequality soared, today’s assumption of trickle down is obviously in error.

When we compensated for the trickle up of capitalism with strong progressive taxation, we achieved the lowest levels of inequality in recorded history.

Capitalism contains a welfare state for the old (and current) leisure class and you need to compensate for it.

The Classical Economists carried on observing the world around them.

Adam Smith:

"But the rate of profit does not, like rent and wages, rise with the prosperity and fall with the declension of the society. On the contrary, it is naturally low in rich and high in poor countries, and it is always highest in the countries which are going fastest to ruin."

When rates of profit are high, capitalism is cannibalising itself by:

1) Not engaging in long term investment for the future

2) Paying insufficient wages to maintain demand for its products and services

Adam Smith’s observation on profit gives us a huge insight into today’s problems with growth and demand.

Wages aren’t high enough and excessive profit is being taken and passed out as dividends ensuring insufficient re-investment and growth.

Amazon re-invests its profits and look how big it’s grown.

As far as economics goes, start again in the 18th Century where they observed small state, raw capitalism in the world around them.

Understand the base of the system properly (raw capitalism free from almost all interference) and work up to build something that works and will provide for all.

CRM114's picture

It's much simpler than that.

Hordes of bankers broke a bundle of laws in 2008, and ever since, and they aren't in jail.

And don't get me started on politicians.

 

When you do not have equality before the law, your so-called society is doomed.

 

greenskeeper carl's picture

Very simple. Also very true. +1

TeethVillage88s's picture

Hillary's Run for the White House is all the proof we need to know there is

No Rule of Law.

Great points.

We are still doomed. Bad money chases out the good money. It is a race to the bottom. I figure the Chinese will be enforcing Martial Law in the USA before I die.

PT's picture

Economics the "Science" vs Economics the Propaganda.  One pays more than the other.

Batman11's picture

19th Century:

The Corn Laws and Laissez-Faire, the requirements of free trade:

“The Anti-Corn Law League was a successful political movement in Great Britain aimed at the abolition of the unpopular Corn Laws, which protected landowners' interests by levying taxes on imported wheat, thus raising the price of bread at a time when factory-owners were trying to cut wages to be internationally competitive.”

What have we done?

We have had ridiculous housing booms to raise the cost of living and wages.

The US has probably been the most successful in making its labour force internationally uncompetitive with soaring costs of housing, healthcare and student loan repayments. These all have to be covered by wages and US businesses are now squealing about the high minimum wage.

Now it needs Trump to put tariffs in place to protect its internationally uncompetitive labour force who have been priced out of global markets by the excessive cost of living.

Economics, start again.


CJgipper's picture

Point of order - we do not have a progressive tax system.  If you work for money and are any good, you'll pay about 50% or more in total tax.  But if you're just collecting rents and royalties in a passive way, that's long term capital gains and 15% is the tax rate regardless of income.

TeethVillage88s's picture

Well what about carried interest tax like what Romney gets. And if you collect rents in NYC, then you can depreciate for 10 years to expand the profits as long as you sell buildings every 10 years and buy back old buildings or new buildings.

There is no Chairman, no quorum, and no point of order here since there is no open meeting.

Plus what about capital gains when you didn't sell anything and end up with a loss later on (Capital Loss).

Just screwing with you, man. Drink up.

If you see analysis of the taxes which come out of the prices you pay for things like gas, energy, transportation, manufactured goods, convenience store purchases,... supposedly you end up with that 50% tax rate for most citizens.

TeethVillage88s's picture

Thanks for a few good posts over last few days. Episode 4 for instance is a great video and your link to BoE PDF on Creation of most Money is what I have been saying for a few years as common sense.

https://goldsilver.com/hidden-secrets/episode-4/
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/...

The FED's Own Indicator Is Signalling A Recession - Episode 1173a

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bk4yUYSkRjM

"When rates of profit are high, capitalism is cannibalising itself by: 1) 2)"

3) Enticing people with propaganda and false education to use credit systems and debt which they can't afford and which steal from their future earnings... and not only doing it to citizens, but... also doing it to their governments

In Ze No's picture

Hell, they put in place an Ayn Rand disciple, Alan Greenspan.  He's the one who opened up the credit spigots and then refused to answer in Congressional testimony.  Instead he gave them the infamous  gobbledygook "Greenspeak" which sent unprepared Congress slinking backwards in fear.  Did any one else notice how clearly and concisely Greenspan spoke once out of office?

Son of Loki's picture

My guess is the housing market in the DC will be heated with lots of turnovers as Hillary supporters get to live thier Marxist Dream .... as barristas and waitresses living in apartments ... for a change.

NuYawkFrankie's picture

"The Lobotomist" - you'll feel like you had ONE after reading it.

Gold...Bitches's picture

And the navel gazing of economists continues

wisehiney's picture

I am standing way down here.

Holding the exit door handle.

Did someone shout FIRE!

See your smoking carcass later!

bentaxle's picture

Profession? Sure, the oldest one in the world.

It's your MODELS....they're just a little too superficial...you know what I mean..https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxZp4VEopcE

ptoemmes's picture

What...all of a sudden self employment, part time temp, waiter/waitress, barista, all those Obama recovery jobs don't cut it?

Jethro's picture

Has anybody given their name as Trump at Starbucks yet, so they have to yell it out?

barysenter's picture

The muppets are revolting! Excellent...

Rebel yell's picture

Well now that Mira Patel and her colleagues are in the same shoes that every normal American was in and is in during this presidential election, can they begin to see why Hillary was not elected.

Rebel yell's picture

Plus the terrorist allies, constant lying,and unprecedented corruption! Welcome to reality!

Jethro's picture

Patel you say?  She would be a shoe-in at managing a seedy hotel.

Rebel yell's picture

It's one of the most common names in India.

Jethro's picture

And also very common in shitty hotel management across the US.

buzzsaw99's picture

my econ 101 teacher was freaking weird. the one thing i took away from that class was a term he used called "marginal utility". i still use it in all sorts of contexts and it has probably saved me money over the years even after paying for the class and the book.

Jethro's picture

So would you say that the class had marginal utility? 

CNONC's picture

My Econ 101 and 102 teacher was brilliant and entertaining.  He really convinced me to pursue Economics as an avocation.  He had aterrible habit, however, of drawing his graphs backwards.  After two hours of lecture, just as you thought you were getting the point, he would stop, look at the chalk board, and suddenly erase everything and redraw it correctly.  The marginal utility of his graphs was a bit on the low side.

bh2's picture

How can credibility be regained for ideas which are complete nonsense?

HRH Feant's picture

I am buying seeds and planning my spring garden.

TimmyM's picture

I planted lettuce seeds yesterday. Yea, I am a gambler.

hooligan2009's picture

fake news

reference to an uprising of "populism" is a misnomer and a diversion

he last 40 years has been an exercize in "populism"

libtard socialist policies that export capital, jobs and taxes overseas, enabled by lunatic libtard central bankers trained in fucked up "populist" mnetary ecoomixs are now UNPOPULISTS BECAUSE THEY FAILED AND FUCKED UP THE FUTURE.

for dirty little snowflakes in the know as to the extent of the corruption of Clinton, resorting to falsifying their CV's to get jobs is a typical irony of the corrupt minds that have turend an oasis into a swamp.

DRAIN THE SWAMP, PROSECUTE CLINTON AND IVESTIGATE PIZZAGATE FULLY

the corruption in american global corporations and investment managers diverting american capital to support tax fraud needs to come next

ever wonder why immigrants need H1B's but receivers of US capital do not have to answer a similar question question asked of H1B appplicants - " can an america do the job you are filling?"

that is - "can you not invest this money in america for similar return and risk, whilst charging lower fees than the substantially higher fees you charge for non-US investments?"

VWAndy's picture

 So wht do they call this meeting. Comedycon?

CRM114's picture

Con as in Fraud ? ;)

Aquarius's picture

"It is not that economics is not a science -- it is."

 

"Economics" is not a science: It is an Institutional Religion compete with Pope, Bishops, Priests; Dogma, Ritual and the desperate need to roll ones eyes as the dice are thrown amidst the smoke of the burning insense swinging back and forth in their shiny brass pots (in the towering Cathedrals dedicated to the Big and Holy Grifter).The High Priests of "Economics" have always resisted  the "scientific method" and its demand for the Principle of negation, making it no more that fixing the roulette tables at the Casino with lead weights; aka political experiency.

The fundamentals of "eEconomics" today, are, at best, poor invalid assumptions: Students who wish to Pass their exams, need only know by rote, their Professors particular theory, and his especially adapted, supportive "Facts". He must forget the rest, and their are over ~36 Schools of "Economic Theory, while most common to find practising "Economists" lecturing on matters confused by his/her lack of knowledge thereof, and in particular on the details of their own brand.

A Degree in Economics is merely a "meal ticket", easily obtainable if one just 'sucks-up'  as well as, memorizes his Professor' / School's particular preferences of "Economic Theory", by rote.

There are indeed plenty of "x-spurts" in the 'grifting arts' of "Economics"

https://verbewarp.blogspot.com.au/2011/02/economic-heresy.html

https://verbewarp.blogspot.com.au/2011/08/delusional-economics.html

LOL

Ho hum

CRM114's picture

If economics were a science, they would adapt the theory when the predictions didn't work.

What they do is adapt the results data till it matches their theory.

It's not a science, it's fraud.

Every single person I know well, in 4 countries, is worse off in terms of what their disposible income will purchase than in 2007.Around 75% of them have been promoted since then.

There is no recovery. Governments swear blind the data says there is.

GCT's picture

+100 if I could Aquarius

Economics is not s science.  It is a SWAG at best or worse some retart like Krugmann stating the only reason the recovery has not happened is because they still have not printed enough money.  Easy for some economist to state that when their plan is not working even when proven it will not work and has not worked.

Of course then they have the new monetary gurus with MMT and MMR stating a government cannot go bankrupt because they control the printing of the currency.  WoW have they never looked throughout history or better yet recent decades when countries do indeed go bankrupt?

Omni Consumer Product's picture

Economics was invented to make astrology look respectable.

Jethro's picture

Exactly.  If their pet theory doesn't work, they move the goal posts.   Or, if federal policy demands, they move their goal posts. 

besnook's picture

i think the real problem is not the economists. the real problem are all the business majors who have no idea what economics is judging by their extreme difficulty in micro and macro  and stats class.

Retired Guy's picture

Or what they teach in college doesn't make sense because it is wrong. I believed all the power of the market stuff but have since learned about the power of crooks to game the system.

The Keynesian theory made me and probably many others very uncomfortable. Borrowing yourself out of bankruptcy only makes sense to the bankrupts who want to believe.

gregga777's picture

All the worthless POS economystics and Hitlery AIDS should count themselves lucky if they only end up living in OBAMAVILLES around the big BLUE cities.

Jethro's picture

Any of the Hillary aides could get paid for an Infowars interview.

WillyGroper's picture

got news for'm.

trust ain't come'n back.

maybe the hill/billee's can provide them with both employment & tools...a lasso to round up the kiddies for epstein.

TeethVillage88s's picture

Laugh at this one. Think of the Washington staffers that now have to down-size. Should look like Tax garnishments on MSNBC.