Bill Blain: "Throughout My Career, Years Ending In 7 Haven’t Been Good"

Tyler Durden's picture

While we wish one of our favorite market commentators', Mint's Bill Blain, all the best as he recovers from his recent heart attack, we would like to share with readers his inaugural for 2017 note, which lays out his current concerns about the state of the markets, and the global economy.

From the January 10 edition of Blain's Mid-Morning Porridge

Let me start by stating the issues causing me some worry:

Throughout my career, years ending in 7 haven’t been good.

1987 saw a massive stock market crash, in 1997 we got the Asian Financial Crisis, and 2007 saw the start of the Global Financial Crisis and consequences we’re still struggling with today. In the case of year 7s, the trend is not our friend.

I’m told by my stock picking chartists there is a 10-yr stock cycle that looks to have peaked. Many factors about this succession of market turnaround moments worry me – firstly, the scale of crisis seems to be multiplying as each 10-yrs event. A simple stock market rout in 1987 became near global catastrophe in 2007.

Thankfully we haven’t ever had the kind of absolute global market meltdown doomsters say will happen, but it does strike me that market moves – whether caused by an evil conjunction of rogue algorithims and Hi-Speed-Trading, or simple human foolishness – are becoming increasingly chaotic, thus raising the scale of crashes.

The second aspect is how financial crisis are solved. Each is new – but it worries me the efforts made to ensure the last crisis doesn’t happen again may contribute to the causes the next one. I certainly don’t believe the deluge of regulatory tat since 2008 has made the world safer. It has not… it has made it more.. difficult. It’s a game of consequences…

And change is definitely coming…

I’ve been looking at the dismal science of Economics. It’s proper name is political economy and its not a proper science. It’s a language for understanding complex events and responding to them,rather than mathematical rules. Over the past 10-years we’ve seen a massive economic experiment in monetary economics. It’s hasn’t gone well. It strikes me the legions of central bank economists are akin to the ancient alchemists looking to change base metal into gold….

The piper will soon want paid. The next phase – underway already - will be a reversal back to fiscal economics. That one potentially positive reality for the US and UK, but yet another minefield for Europe. It’s a big if to see whether Trump delivers the fiscal boost the market expects, or whether the continued weakness of sterling continues to push the FTSE into the stratosphere. I have my doubts…!
In Europe a swing towards Fiscal policy spells crisis.

The fact that France and Italy could be steaming towards fiscal stimuli will break the current ECB monetary consensus, while Germans become increasing strident about the need for higher rates and an end to QE. Add to that a hefty dose of European politics. Dutch Elections, French Elections and the Germans.. its all much to worry about. 

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
HRH Feant's picture
HRH Feant (not verified) Jan 11, 2017 1:12 AM

2017 is a 1 year. As far as the series progression on bad stockmarket shit happening, bring it on.

Manthong's picture

"Throughout My Career, Years Ending In a Cardinal Number Have Been Dicey,” 

 

HRH Feant's picture
HRH Feant (not verified) Manthong Jan 11, 2017 1:39 AM

2+0+1+7 = 10. Add 1+0 =1. Thus, it is a 1 year.

MANvsMACHINE's picture

2-0-1-7=(6)

It can be viewed as a minus 6 year as well. You know what happens in every minus 6 year?

You don't?

Well neither do I.

HRH Feant's picture
HRH Feant (not verified) MANvsMACHINE Jan 11, 2017 3:24 AM

IT IS A ONE YEAR! I don't care if you like Pythagorean numerology or not!

And don't get me started on the number 8. The Chinese are HUGE fans of the number 8.

socalbeach's picture

"1 years" are 1 plus a multiple of 9. So the next one would be 2026, then 2035, etc.

HRH Feant's picture
HRH Feant (not verified) socalbeach Jan 11, 2017 3:26 AM

Let me go walk into the nearest wall.

OverTheHedge's picture

The fact that France and Italy could be steaming towards fiscal stimuli will break the current ECB monetary consensus, while Germans become increasing strident about the need for higher rates and an end to QE. Add to that a hefty dose of European politics. Dutch Elections, French Elections and the Germans.. its all much to worry about. 

 

From an investment point of view, I see why he is worried, but from a societal point of view, the future is looking brighter. Now, all we have to do is stay alive until the future arrives...

Rey dTutto's picture

Invest in lead and brass.

It'll help.

SunRise's picture

What about the parts like this one below? 

Ezekiel 45:9-10

'Thus says the Lord GOD, "Enough, you princes of Israel; put away violence and destruction, and practice justice and righteousness Stop your expropriations from My people," declares the Lord GOD. "You shall have just balances, a just ephah and a just bath.

"Who's Play'in the Banjer Here?"

PUNCHY's picture

Let's all be grateful that the Manchurian Candidate is finally calling in the moving vans, that fact alone means this year ending in a 7 cannot be completely doomy and gloomy.

RonnieM's picture
RonnieM (not verified) Jan 11, 2017 2:26 AM

More joke analysis.

 

Only one good analysis group left on Wall Street 

 

Former analysts from Goldman Sachs 

 

Can't argue with their preciseness and proven track record.

 

https://t.co/LM81DZlPyF

BorisTheBlade's picture

We'll need an independent verification from Dennis Gartman, but he seems to have faded away from ZH headlines.

LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD's picture
LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD (not verified) BorisTheBlade Jan 11, 2017 11:56 AM

Hot financial tip related to ronniem:
.

NEVER TRUST A COMPANY THAT HAS TO RESORT TO A FLOOD OF SPAM COMMENTS FOR ADVERTISING.
.

The following is a list of shepwave's **many** spam accounts on ZH. Note how they are always the same ones talking between themselves, giving themselves thumbs ups, and ripping into people asking them to stop the spam flood. Sadly, for them, spamming is more profitable than trading and/or selling their "awesome," "always right," trade "analysis." The spammers: AliSONY, Babs.St.Louis, Billy G, Chi Juan, Dr.Carl, ErikE, FemDayTrader, Irvingm, jasony, John Beau, KC Spike, MadhyaBharatx, MexInvest, MikeM54, Mon T, P Christmas Carole, Pinky and the Brain, RonnieM, Sonya B59, Stan Your Man, StevieTexie, Van G, and wisetrader224

tricorn teacup's picture

With each crash we see more aggressive ill conceived fiscal policy designed to "stabilize" the market, allowing the bubbles to grow bigger before the inevitable next correction.  So maybe we'd do better not trying to "stabilize" the markets and let smaller corrections happen more often.

firestarter_916's picture

My last bank statement shows $1,000,007.....is that bad?

Vinividivinci's picture

Any relation to Christine Lagarde's "magic number 7" speach ?