World Faces Rising Risk Of Conflict: US Intel Report Admits "Era Of American Dominance Drawing To A Close"

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by MiddleEastEye via,

The incoming Donald Trump administration faces a world of greater risk of conflict, slower growth and more anti-democratic pressures than ever since the Cold War, a new US intelligence report released on Monday said.

US leadership is ebbing amid shifts in economic, political and technological power, deep changes in the global landscape “that portend a dark and difficult near future,” according to the National Intelligence Council’s “Global Trends: Paradox of Progress” report.

“The next five years will see rising tensions within and between countries,” said the report.

“For better or worse, the emerging global landscape is drawing to a close an era of American dominance following the Cold War.”

The National Intelligence Council, a research group under the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, issues its global assessment every four years, and the new one came 11 days before Trump is inaugurated as president.

It painted a gloomy picture of the challenges pulling at the post-World War II global order, including extreme income disparities, technological dislocation, demographic shifts, the impacts of global warming, and intensifying communal conflicts.

Moreover, Western democracies will find it harder and harder to stick to their principles and avoid being pulled apart from each other, according to the study.

“It will be much harder to cooperate internationally and govern in ways publics expect,” it said.

More countries will be able to “veto” cooperative efforts and the myriad channels of global communication will leave large numbers and groups of people misinformed and divided, the report said.

“Information ‘echo chambers’ will reinforce countless competing realities.”

The report, whose authors comprise analysts from the intelligence and academic communities, also says that the liberalism that defined the West and allies after World War II is under threat from populism on both the right and left, as governing countries and societies gets harder.

“Publics will demand governments deliver security and prosperity, but flat revenues, distrust, polarisation and a growing list of emerging issues will hamper government performance.”

Those trends underscore the need for Washington to shore up traditional Western alliances and friendships as Russia and China test their resolve to preserve their influence, it said.

Yet the report warned US leaders not to be tempted to try to resuscitate the kind of Pax Americana, the policy of US-imposed global peace, which steered the global order from the 1950s.

“It will be tempting to impose order on this apparent chaos, but that ultimately would be too costly in the short run and would fail in the long run,” eroding US political strength.

Ongoing wars in the Middle East, including the war in Syria, have caused the biggest humanitarian and refugee crises since World War II.

Meanwhile, the rise of populism is empowering right wing political parties across Europe and has led to Britain’s exit from the EU and Trump’s election in the United States.

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Croesus's picture

Drawing to a close because "Intelligence" fucked up.

@ CIA: A guy on 4chan got the best of you...let that sink in.

Troy Ounce's picture



Not to worry, they say Chinese middle class is quite good as an employers for your daughters as maids.

Looney's picture


World Faces Rising Risk Of Conflict…

… and 0bama is doing everything he can to make sure the Conflict occurs, even after he’s gone.

Dubya wasn’t the smartest kid on the Short Bus, but he was wise enough to stop yapping the day he left the White House.

People like 0bama never shut up, unless they are bitch-slapped or embarrassed “real gewd”.

He will keep running his mouth until he is caught soliciting oral sex in a public restroom or “researching” kiddie porn.

Looney   ;-)

JRobby's picture

A new "US intelligence report"????

That has not been going well lately?

Escrava Isaura's picture

"Era Of American Dominance Drawing To A Close"

Thank you sir, you nailed it.

Bye bye middleclass, job security, and retirement.

Welcome to third word capitalism, where the money flows to a very minority, meaning, the inequality and struggles will only grow wider,


xythras's picture
xythras (not verified) Escrava Isaura Jan 11, 2017 6:48 AM

Some good news from Oregon. The city is suing MONSANTO


PS We expect more 4chan trolling. MOAR MOAR !

BennyBoy's picture


"Era Of American Dominance Drawing To A Close"

So less murdering people overseas then stealing their oil and gas and giving it free to corporations.

Stuck on Zero's picture

Glory be. Wouldn't it be great if China picked up the mantle of empire and bankrupted themseleves trying to maintain world order?  Maybe we could concentrate on our own quality of life.

roddy6667's picture

China makes sure to learn by America's mistakes. They will not turn into the World Police. Just as the Roman Emire got too physically spread out to maintain, America is spending trillions to prop up its empire while the people and infrastructure rot back home.

fockewulf190's picture

Debt if the killer of empires.  Always was, always will be.  Thing is, almost every country on this planet is hopelessly underwater, and China is no different.  China is burning through it´s reserves right now faster than an internet start-up with no profits.  They have a debt load even bigger the the US and their banking system is hanging by a thread.  The smartest thing they have done though, is that they have bought, and continue to buy, physical gold hand over fist.  If they manage to wrench pricing control away from the corrupt western banking cartels, they could, in essence, revalue gold high enough to negate their own debt loads and claim rights to reserve currency status.   

The ultimate truth, is the true status of the actual physical gold holdings that are said to be in storage within the vaults in the US.  If that truth is forced, and the vaults are empty, the world changes overnight, for the only thing that is keeping this farce of an economic system going...namely confidence...will be lost instantly.

Twee Surgeon's picture

I do not think the story ends the way you hope it will, in fact i guarantee, It won't. Back to the fields for your ilk that survive the coming changes.

Thanks, it's been real.

Shemp 4 Victory's picture


Bye bye middleclass, job security, and retirement.

Welcome to third word capitalism, where the money flows to a very minority, meaning, the inequality and struggles will only grow wider,

Making accurate predictions about the US at the start of the 21st century, sixteen years after the fact, really takes some expert analysis and foresight.

GreatUncle's picture

Being a popularistic pessamist I expect WW3 before we get to your part thanks.

Looking forward to it ... life is a challenge ... socan I survive a nuclear winter, well we won't know until we try will we?

Shemp 4 Victory's picture


A new "US intelligence report"????

Already laughing. Anyone know if it's been verified by buzzfeed?

Sandmann's picture

Yes but Dubya was the Cheney Puppet and Obama was the New Improved Puppet being rolled off the assembly-lines with no back story and no critical thinking. 

GraveDancer's picture

That's exactly what I have been saying for the past one year on ZeroHedge!

Obama is the outgoing Chamberlin; Trump is the incoming Churchill; Putin is Stalin and Islamic jihad is the new Nazism to be defeated!

The? ?world? ?is? ?finally? ?awakening? ?to? ?the? ?fact? ?that? ?World? ?War? ?III? ?has? ?begun? ?in? ?earnest;? ?that the? ?Islamic? ?World? ?and? ?the? ?Judeo-Christian? ?world? ?are? ?now? ?truly? ?at? ?war.

> The Road to World War III: Can the Dark forces of anti-Freedom trump Humanity?


fleur de lis's picture

"US Intel" is a contradiction in terms.

Twee Surgeon's picture

Oxymoron is the word you seek. You are right. i think US Intel is up for a big re-shuffle. Apparently, the cunts have the helm.

fleur de lis's picture

All the "intelligence" agencies are controlled by corporate interests and globalists.

They can't even take down a pest like Soros/Schwarz.

They waste phenomenal heaps of money spying on ordinary Americans but still get fooled by 4 chan.

Then they promote the Russian menace story but don't have a basic grasp of Russian or even general history.


Dominus Ludificatio's picture

I fail to see the intelligence part of these governament agencies.

doctor10's picture

whaddya expect after 20 years of having women, including a black woman, attempting to represent US interests to Muslim men!!!!

Twee Surgeon's picture

"govern in the way people expect" I don't think 'People' expect the US government to be running all over the planet and getting up everyone's arse like a bunch of junior high school bitches. In My mind govern the way people expect looks a lot like Stay the fuck in your own land and do the best for your own people instead of acting Ultra Vires, blowing shit up where you do not belong and taking care of your own house before criticizing others.

The arrogance of these fucks is astonishing, Who are the People they speak of ? Nobody I know. If the US re-adopted the laws in place around 1899, Islam and crime would self destruct in 10 months.

People don't want Allah, they want a Packard convertible, a hot mistress and a speedboat. How hard can it be when you own the printing press ? What a bunch of losers.

BarkingCat's picture

Twee Surgeon, I wish I could upvote you a thousand times.

Boomberg's picture

“It will be tempting to impose order on this apparent chaos, but that ultimately would be too costly in the short run and would fail in the long run,” eroding US political strength.


Chaos to the deep state, freedom to everyone else. Freedom is messy.

GreatUncle's picture

You can't make omelettes without cracking some deep state eggs ... oops! I mean heads.

Overdrawn's picture

Which website did US intelligence copy & paste this report from?  

Shemp 4 Victory's picture

They consider Sorcha Faal a reliable and accredited source.

Citizen_x's picture


"Yes We Can"....snowflake !

It only cost you 10 trillion...don't worry, your grandkids will pay the bill.

dexter_morgan's picture

Sounds like their answer is MORE gubmit. But less would be better freedom wise. 

Last of the Middle Class's picture

I can't tell, is that a WWIII button or a cankles "reset" button?

Last of the Middle Class's picture

The bullshit people spew in the interest of larger government. Unbelievable.

Batman11's picture

The US set its heart on liberal democracy and the end was already in sight, it was probably one of the stupidest ideas in the history of mankind.

The problems were there at the start but were ignored, it was always going to go wrong in exactly the way it has.

Francis Fukuyama talked of the “end of history” and “liberal democracy”.

Liberal democracy was the bringing together of two mutually exclusive ideas.

Economic liberalism – that enriches the few and impoverishes the many.

Democracy – that requires the support of the majority.

Trying to bring two mutually exclusive ideas together just doesn’t work.

The ideas of “Economic Liberalism” came from Milton Freidman and the University of Chicago. It was so radical they first tried it in a military dictatorship in Chile, it wouldn’t be compatible with democracy. It took death squads, torture and terror to keep it in place, there was an ethnic cleansing of anyone who still showed signs of any left wing thinking.

It was tried in a few other places in South America using similar techniques. It then did succeed in a democracy but only by tricking the people into thinking they were voting for something else, severe oppression was needed when they found out what they were getting.

Margaret Thatcher bought these ideas to the West and the plan to eliminate the welfare state has only recently been revealed. Things had to be done slowly in the West due to that bothersome democracy. The West has now seen enough.

It was implemented far more brutally in the developing world where Milton Freidman’s “Chicago Boys” were the henchmen of “The Washington Consensus”. The IMF and World Bank acted as enforcers insisting on neoliberal conditionalities for loans.

Global markets punished those not towing the neoliberal line and kept nations in their place. As Nelson Mandela was released from prison the South African Rand fell 10%, someone like this was going to be pushing up wage costs and would be bad for the economy.

Looking back it was a grand folly of an international elite whose greed overcame even a modicum of common sense.

Naomi Klein's "The Shock Doctrine" will take you through all the gory details.

Underlying neo-liberalism is a different economics, neoclassical economics, which is heavily biased towards the wealthy. Inequality and a lack of demand in the global economy were also guaranteed from the start.

ICValue's picture

First of all, the National Intelligence Council sounds like an oxymoron. Secondly when they say that "Publics will demand that governments deliver security and prosperity" they expose the ignorance as to where prosperity comes from, and miss their their chance to point as solutions. Rising tensions between countries they say. At least they admit that it will be tempting for rule makers to try and impose order and that it would be to costly and ultimately fail. 

Here's why. Individuals make the best use of resources to complete life's goal of increasing comfort or decreasing discomfort. Rule makers are individuals but their only tool is to make a rule that affects all individuals in their quest for comfort. Whoops, the rulemaker forgot to consider the unintended consequences of enforcing the rule and at the same time reducing innovation and efficiency. 

I would be surprised if the rulemaker was ever taught the source of value that supports their life is trade, and that every rule that limits trade decreases their societies ability to support the rulemaker. The word dumb-asses comes to mind but it is not really fair as they also are using their resources to increase their comfort, unfortunately among their resources is to building rules that decrease everyone else's potential to create value.  So a rule is made to "fix a problem which creates other problems that spur the rulemakers to make another rule and the devolution revolves. 

One seemingly easy solution would be to change ruelemakers into right protectors thereby freeing everybody up to innovatively use resources. Too much time is wasted on compliance with rules that maybe well intentioned but are ultimately counterproductive. Free Up.

Able Ape's picture

US Intelligence?  That's a joke; those clowns couldn't predict daybreak despite that happening regulary for billions of years!...

MrNoItAll's picture

Predicting near-term future global conflict is a no-brainer.  It doesn't take a whole lot of intelligence to recognize that this version of human civilization is swirling down the shitter, fast.

TeaClipper's picture

Dont expect much in the way of support for your globalist agenda from your citizens. If you continue on that path, we will continue to weaken you from within

29.5 hours's picture

<<American Dominance Drawing To A Close>>

We'll always have Hollywood...

Erwin643's picture

Yeah, under Barry Soweto, it was run out of the White House, with him making 40 trips to Hollywood, resulting in pure propaganda movies like "Zero Dark Thirty", "Lincoln", "White House has Fallen"-type movies, etc.

Killdo's picture

Hollywood movies are mostly shit thesed days. Most Latin American moveis (even on a very low budget ) are much better than anything coming out of Hollywood these days. No wonder - I've met a few of major Hollywood producers (one of them produced the most profitable movie ever) - and they are a bunch of unhappy, manipulative (mostly gay) people with no confidence at all. They know they have nothing to say and they mostly think like accountants - they don't know anythign about art. Most actors I've met (apart from Joel Gray and a couple of old ones) woudl do anything to get any role - a bunch of desparate bastards - there is nothing glamurous about them or their profession. I woudl rather my kids be hookers than Hollywood actors - the most pathetic profession of all. Most of the actos/producers/directors (apart from Guy Richie) are basically like hookers - they woudl kiss any ass (etc)  to be in any crap movie. Hollywood has infrastructure and money but no heart, no balls, no social context and no ideas. 

it's like a very expensive shell of a car with no engine (and rotten inside)

buzzsaw99's picture

They're nuts. They know nothing. [/Jim Cramer]

MrNoItAll's picture

The era of American dominance is drawing to a close BECAUSE the era of cheap and easy energy is also drawing to a close. Cheap and easy energy equated to prosperity surpluses that temporarily solved a lot of short term problems while creating many more long term problems. Actually, cheap and easy energy is already a small speck in the rear view mirror, but massive debt -- pulling future consumption into the present -- has temporarily compensated for the rapidly decreasing energy that modern civilization is built on. But that too is drawing to a close. If anyone has seen the correlation between global population increase and fossil fuel usage, then they understand that there is a massive human die-off baked into the cake. The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse are saddling up and the Grim Reaper is putting a well-honed edge on that scythe of his. Winter is definitely coming.

Erwin643's picture

Wow, you got all that right.

Can you say "1972 MIT/Club of Rome Limits to Growth study"? In their "business as usual" scenario, global economic growth ends... About now.

Posa's picture

This is the usual Limits to Growth human holocaust scenario... but it's bogus from end to end. Coal and breeder reactors can power human civilization for centuries... meanwhile new approaches to fusion energy (NOT typical tokomaks) are on the horizon and making very, very rapid progress.


One of my favorite alt-Fusion companies is a micro-outfit called LPPFusion in New Jersey... their test reactor is incredible brilliant and results published in peer-reviewed journals.. details at

General Titus's picture

The era of "American Dominance" never represented the wishes of the American people but a cabal of of red diaper babies, Bolsheviks, Globalists, murder ind, zionists, masons etc who plan these wars and revolutions for a global bolshevik agenda and profits.

Drain the swamp of the anti-americvan cia, fbi, nsa, state dept, etc etc

Posa's picture

Yup. We need a Republic not and Empire (to quote a prominent author)

GreatUncle's picture

@NoitAll and end of cheap energy.

Energy is what price ... $$$, ££££, euros, yen ... the value is measured in fiat.

A slight twist and what I think is happening is more to do with the FIAT economies failing ... energy is energy ... made cheap by the FIAT and now that FIAT system is dieing.

The price is nonsensical because the value is really reflected in what you can afford to pay.

We seen oil collapse, go back up ... demand sharply curtails = nobody buying or restricting even more usage.

Long low energy goodies to counteract the inability to afford energy costs.

Kill the FIAT.

zippy_uk's picture

"After 75 years the American Century is over.."