The Path To $10,000 Bitcoin

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

So let's imagine a scenario in which tens of trillions of at-risk wealth suddenly seek an alternative--any alternative to staying in an asset class that's circling the drain.

As my colleague Davefairtex observed recently, the paint isn't quite dry on bitcoin and the expanding host of other cryptocurrencies. Initial enthusiasm for the latest cryptocurrency that's going to eat bitcoin's lunch generates outsized returns for early investors, but as glitches in the vision arise, the bubble of initial euphoria pops.

Differing visions of bitcoin's future have divided its community of participants and miners, and hard forks have split other cryptocurrencies into competing camps.

Meanwhile, the spectre of outright bans on bitcoin and cryptocurrencies by nations such as China adds uncertainty to the entire sector. Many observers expect that China's increasingly pervasive attempts to staunch the flow of capital out of China via capital controls will lead inevitably to strict limits on bitcoin or even a total ban on bitcoin transactions and mining in China.

Since the majority of mining and transactions occur in China, severe limits or a ban would have an outsized impact on the bitcoin community. Many observers foresee the potential for a massive decline in the price of bitcoin should such a ban be imposed.

As if all these issues didn't generate enough uncertainty and skepticism, it seems as if every time the general public starts getting interested in cryptocurrencies, another exchange is hacked or another entry in the cryptocurrency sweepstakes blows up, sending the sector back into the "untrustworthy" abyss.

But this minefield shouldn't blind us to the possibility of a path to $10,000 bitcoin. Skepticism is always prudent in any financial matter, especially a speculative one, so put on your skeptical thinkijng cap and follow along.

The problem is everything is now speculative. Do you really think the $100 trillion private-sector bond market (i.e. the bet that debtors will pay back what they borrowed with interest) is "safe," as in guaranteed, bullet-proof, no serious loss of capital is possible, etc.? How about the $60 trillion sovereign (government) bond market?

The problem with sovereign bonds is governments with central banks can create "money" out of thin air to pay interest and redeem maturing bonds, but this devalues the currency. So getting back 100% of your nominal investment doesn't mean you're whole; if the currency the bond is denominated in fell 50%, bondholders suffer a 50% loss in the purchasing power of their initial capital. Ouch. How is that not speculative?

How about the $70 trillion in global stocks? Yes, we all "know" that stocks will never go down ever again because central banks can keep inflating new credit bubbles indefinitely--but let's not kid ourselves: history tells us that stocks remain a speculative gamble.

How about the $62 trillion in unsecuritized debt instruments? How much of this debt is collateralized by fast-dying malls, bubble-priced real estate, or Unicorn-type valuations in other assets?

Take a gander at this chart of financial assets, roughly $300 trillion, and note that this doesn't include real estate, housing, etc. Global real estate is estimated at $217 trillion, roughly two-thirds of financial wealth.

Together, these assets add up to over $500 trillion.

Once again, the larger context here is: all these assets are speculative. Yes, even real estate. Consider this, if you missed it: When Assets (Such as Real Estate) Become Liabilities.

Then there's the currency market. Care to argue that currencies are non-speculative investments? Is that why Chinese wealth is gushing out of the yuan, because it's so guaranteed to never lose purchasing power? Is that why the euro fell from 1.40 to 1.05, because it's a guaranteed safe investment? Venezuelans learned the hard way that fiat currencies when mismanaged by the issuing nation/central bank can destroy wealth on an unimaginable scale.

So now let's turn to bitcoin, with a market cap of about $14 billion, down from a recent high of $18 billion. Now compare that to $500 trillion. If we take 1 measly little trillion, bitcoin's entire market cap is 1/70th of that.

So let's imagine a scenario in which tens of trillions of at-risk wealth suddenly seek an alternative--any alternative to staying in an asset class that's circling the drain. We're accustomed to "rotation," the nice little game where bonds can be sold and the capital invested in real estate or stocks, or vice versa.

We're less accustomed to all the conventional asset classes toppling like dominoes. Where do the fleeing trillions go when stocks, bonds and real estate are all going down in a chaotic sell-off? Gold and silver are time-honored safe havens, but it's not too difficult to foresee the potential for limits or bans on gold, or supply constraints. Some percentage of investors will consider alternatives.

In such an environment of a crowd rushing for increasingly narrowing exits, what thin slice of institutional and individual investors will take a chance that bitcoin might hold or even increase its value as a major currency melts down, or some other global financial crisis unfolds?

Shall we guess 1/10th of 1% of the panicky fleeing wealth will take the chance that bitcoin will be a safer haven than the conventional assets that are cratering?

So 1% of the $300 trillion in financial assets (setting aside the $200 trillion in real estate for the moment) is $3 trillion, and a tenth of that is $300 billion.

So what happens to bitcoin's price if $300 billion rushes through the wormhole? On the face of it, market cap would go up 20-fold from current levels. Since the number of bitcoin is limited to around 18 or 19 million (subtracting those bitcoin lost forever to hard drive crashes, etc., and those yet to be mined), price would also have to rise 20-fold.

OK, so 1/10th of 1% of global financial wealth flowing into bitcoin strains credulity. Let's make it 1/20th of 1%, or $150 billion. That still pushes bitcoin's market cap and price up 10-fold.

That's the pathway to $10,000 bitcoin. Unlikely, you say? Perhaps. But if you're of the mind that $500 trillion in current assets might be revalued considerably lower in a global crisis, then a tiny sliver of that fast-evaporating wealth finding a home in bitcoin (or other cryptocurrencies) doesn't seem all that farfetched.

You want farfetched, how about $3 trillion in panicky fleeing capital flooding into bitcoin? Yes, a whole, gigantic, enormous 1% of speculative financial "wealth" and "money" seeking a home in cryptocurrencies.

(It's worth doing the same exercise with gold, only substitute $6.4 trillion in market cap (i.e. all the non-central owned bank gold) for bitcoin's $14 billion market cap.)

Cryptocurrencies are intrinsically volatile and speculative. Anyone pondering them must keep this firmly in mind at all times. There is no "guaranteed" safety or guaranteed anything. Everything that appears solid can melt into thin air (to borrow Marx's phrase) without advance notice.

All of the World’s Money and Markets in One Visualization

How Much Gold Do Central Banks Actually Have?

Disclosure: the author has a tiny speculative position in bitcoin. This is not a recommendation to anyone to speculate in any financial instrument, including cryptocurrecies. Please read the site's full disclosure here: HUGE GIANT BIG FAT DISCLAIMER.

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Croesus's picture

"We love you, Satoshi!"

- Quoth the Fonestar

techpriest's picture

The article boils down to "if everyone is losing their mind, then maybe a fraction of a percent of people will throw their money at X. In this case, X is Bitcoin."

Sounds like a solid investment strategy. /sarc

Dame Ednas Possum's picture

Great... another puff-piece on Shitcoin... cue Dirtbag Dragqueen III to run around with a hard-on now while froffing at the mouth. 

"Ooh ooh... I'm going to have my own Gulfstream jet to fly me around... and George Clooney will lick my nuts... yeah ooh ooh yeah... and I'm getting a new X-box for Mum's basement... I'll be so important... and none of you are coming to my birthday party... Ooh... yeah'

tmosley's picture

>How to trigger the butthurt ignoramuses of the peanut gallery at ZH 101

I'm feeling very educated now. Bring on the downvotes!

BaBaBouy's picture

WANTED: "Greater Fools"

Apply within, and bring your Cash...

Notveryamused's picture

The blockchain industry as a whole is very appealing.
In addition to BTC you would also want some Monero (XMR) it is more private than Bitcoin and massively outperformed BTC in the last uptrend.
The most private of all is ZCash but the inflation model replicates BTC so you probably don't want to touch it till mid 2018.

Other Blockchain projects...
Augur (REP) Due for release by mid 2017, will enable sports betting via decentralised prediction markets. MASSIVELY undercuts traditional bookmakers and can penetrate any market regardless of laws.
Maidsafe (MAID) Creating a private and decentralised network for applications that ensure digital privacy, often delayed due to complexity of task, 70% probability 2017 release.

You'd have to be dumb as f*ck, not to realise privacy centric. decentralised technology is a massive growth industry both in terms of currency and business applications.

Escrava Isaura's picture

Bitcoin is another tulip mania.

Post collapse Bitcoin will be worth zero.


StackShinyStuff's picture

Good thing all of my bitcoin is on that flash drive at the bottom of the lake...oh wait

mmanvil74's picture

On a long enough timeline, every asset value drops to zero.

The question is what, if anything, could go up 100x in dollar terms in the near future (ie. my lifetime)?

Bitcoin and other crypto are clearly in that category. The odds of that happening might be 10-1 but that still makes it a good bet.

Bendromeda Strain's picture

The blockchain industry as a whole is very appealing.

Well of course it is, which is why Blythe Masters stopped manipulating precious metal and started in on blockchain technology. Listen up here, anything she is involved in will not be to your benefit. We have already seen her track record and MO. That is why "ensure digital privacy" is a pipe dream at this point. Like Silk Road, it is private until it isn't, and the realization doesn't come until after the fact.

omniversling's picture

The internet is a miitary network. It's designed and owned. Nothing on it is private to those who designed it. No significant player plays without following the rules. Search Joseph Applebaum for one, then research AI, Dwave quantum computing and join the dots...


Michigander's picture

When you say “REAL MEN HOLD GOLD”?, You mean people that barely have a pot to piss in or window to throw it out of hold gold. Real men of financial substance hold a little bit of everything. Real estate, cash in hand, gold in hand, silver in hand, junk silver, offshore cash, and yes, a little bitcoin for speculation.

 When you have nothing, your right. Start all in with bullion, but remember, those that sing “it’s all bullion or nothing”, you’re wearing your net worth on your sleeve…and it most likely aint shit.

Bay of Pigs's picture

So says the guy to buy silver at $40+ and to hundreds more.

Give it a rest buddy.

omniversling's picture

Bait Con = $10k

Beta test for GloBAAL Gulag units of digital credit. No obey, no gruel.

"And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name." Or his/her smart phone and/or patented RFID  tattoo of Motorola/DARPA/Regina Dugan:


Starvation 2017's picture

No shit, all investing is speculation. Let me phrase it this way, I'll slightly alter your words.

"if everyone is losing their mind, then maybe a fraction of a percent of people will throw their money at X. In this case, X is gold."

It's literally the same argument as goldbugs.

Dame Ednas Possum's picture

Yeah... but no. 

Gold actually exists... it's not fiat like Bitcoin and the countless other similar magic unicorn rainbow poops. 

strannick's picture

Bitcoin market cap 14 billion

Silver marketcap 17 billion.

Best part of silver is it's not Bitcoin

BaBaBouy's picture

Also SILVER has a huge paper short O/S, which will one day have to be resolved...

Mustafa Kemal's picture

i am so looking forward to that

Starvation 2017's picture

"fiat like Bitcoin"

You might want to google the definition of "fiat", but whatever let's extrapolate. If we apply your logic then my banking and investment accounts are "magical unicorn rainbow poops" because all they are is ones and zeroes; just as bitcoins they don't "exist".

Dame Ednas Possum's picture

You're catching on... an electron is an electron by any other name. 

I don't need to Google 'fiat' to know it is Latin for 'let it be'. It's a wave of a magic wand and... poof... there it is.  

Hey presto!, have some:  Currencies.  Bit coin.  Gold ETFs.  Digits on a screen.  A guy with a fancy letter-head and shiny white teeth who will happily hold your funds.  The fucking Easter bunny. 

Physical gold... not so much. 

Starvation 2017's picture

Okay, but gold is not feasible as money in modern society. You can't pay for your burrito with 0.004 ounces of gold.

We're not going back to a gold standard. Not unless we cease to exist as the USA as we know it, just my opinion.

Gold money (formerly known as BitGold) as actually completely feasible but has it's own set of issues, it's also not anonymous, untraceable, or decentralized, so it still can't bring the same value that BTC can.

Dame Ednas Possum's picture

Never say never. 

You are right that gold is not really practical for common use as a medium of exchange on minor, day-to-day transactions... but a gold-backed currency? Why not? It has worked perfectly well for eons... until the banksters diluted the system and abused their remit yet again. 

Research the Nixon Shock of '71 when he 'temporarily' suspended the gold backing of the USD. 

Don't be fooled by the current debauched construct. Time and time again it has fallen over and fiat currencies have returned to their intrinsic value. Spoiler alert... ZERO. Zip. Nada. Nought. Nout. Zilch. 

Just ask Bubbles: 

Or Warren Buffet's daddy:


We're at the end of the biggest, most powerful empire our species has ever seen. Your beloved USA is living on borrowed time. The gigs up.

Hopefully we'll get a relatively smooth transition like the collapse of the Soviet union... but watching the maniacs running the asylum today, I wouldn't bet my life or my family's lives on it. 

Sit down and think it through. Don't be dissuaded by the ridicule of those blinded by their status quo inertia and cognitive dissonance. 

The writing is on the wall. 

Live your life to the fullest... but hedge accordingly 


Starvation 2017's picture

I've known everything you've just said, but for whatever the way you phrased it enabled me to view it in a different light.

I like BTC because it fills the void of gold-backed currency for me. It allows me to electronically transact in a very convenient manner while simultaneous acting as a storage of value. That said just having a gold-backed currency still doesn't necessarily give me the same benefits endemic to BTC I mentioned previously. Until such time that technology is able to combine the benefits of both into a single currency, I'll own gold and BTC.

Dame Ednas Possum's picture

Coolio. Go for it. I'm for anything that'll smash the bankster fraud. However the BTC evangelists wear thin when they preach that it will cure cancer and overcome famine in Africa. 

I guess the same can be said for gold bugs.

The difference is that it is a mathematical certainty that the gold bugs will be correct one day.  Very very correct.  Which means they are correct today. 


Mustafa Kemal's picture

"you can't pay for your burrito with 0.004 ounces of gold."

but you might with a mercury dime

83_vf_1100_c's picture

Dimes are for burrito buying. A dime should fill you up.

If bc hits $10k, there will be no buyers. Same with AU unfortunately.

Trubador's picture

Although Gold on the market is priced in Troy Ounces, the international standard is in grams (approx 31.1 grams in each troy oz). So a Gold price of $1200/Toz comes out to approx $38.60/gram. Much more feaseable, I would say, in times of economic collapse for bartering. You buy Silver. when you have enough silver you convert it to Gold (getting something like a Valcambi 50-gram bar, which is breakable into 50 1-gram pieces). 


So, at that point, when Gold hits $2000/Toz and Silver reaches it's normal 40-50:1 ratio to Gold (average it out to 45:1), that 1-gram Gold piece you bought at $38.60/gram will be worth $64.30/gram. And that Troy Oz peice of Silver you bought at $12/Toz will be worth $44.44.


I don't think bartering with 1oz silver rounds/coins/bars and 1/gram Gold pieces will be a problem. That along with other goods, bullets, cigarettes, alcohol, meds, water, grains, will go a lot further than bitz.

BeanusCountus's picture

Hmmm. It's all the same when it comes to anything with no intrinsic value and/or represents someone else's liability. Physical gold is an exception on those counts. But doesn't mean it's value at any point in time won't fluctuate based on demand. It is what it is. I prefer it to bitcoin. As something that will limit your losses. Time will tell.

toknormal's picture

"Gold actually exists" ?

This is a typically expressed delusion about gold's effectiveness as a store of wealth in the modern age.

Unfortunately it's no longer enough just to "exist". The problem is that gold ONLY exists in physical form which prevents it from being used as a bearer instrument on an electronic platform where 99% of the world's trade takes place.

For that reason, gold has split into 2 asset classes, both of which are now broken. 1 is high in liquidity and the other is limited supply but they can no longer be reconciled on the same market platform.

It always amazes me how gold promoters persist in their delusional beliefs despite the lead balloon that's staring them in the face. We have just witnessed 6-7 years of what should have been one of the most fertile periods of growth for precious metals in their history. Yet they have done nothing. Gold investors have been left with their underpants around their ankles in trying to offset the 500% inflation of the fiat monetary base. If that doesn't tell you something then you're beyond salvation (and about to trip over).

What bitcoin does is to port the function that precious metals carried out in physical markets to an electronic market. i.e. it allows the exchange of 2 asset attributes in a single trade instead of 1:

• ownership
• possession

Gold was the physical “bitcoin” of its day as far as monetary function was concerned but it can no longer fulfil that role. It is not liquid in its native form and Bitcoin is. A gold trader can exchange ownership with a buyer on another continent in 2 seconds. But it will take 2 weeks to exchange possession. Given that it owes its so called "intrinsic value" to being able to perform those 2 functions simultaneously, it must be regarded as a broken asset class and something else needs to take over.

Until 2009 there was no "something else". But now there is and it's growing in strength by the day - look at the chart of worldwide hashrate linked below. Whatever price-bubbles it gets into, thats not going away anytime soon.

P.S. If you think this recent 'dump' is any significant obstacle, think again. All it represents is a window to "get in". It's totally consistent with previous corrections during Bitcoin's sustained 18-month old growth path from the last $200 level.

techpriest's picture

Yes, there's an extent to which that is true.

I see investing in two parts.

First, there is a way to systematically value a company or property and figure out whether the rent/dividends/bond payments will give you a good profit. There is still some speculation but you can ferret out red flags in this kind of investment, for example a property that cannot possibly make enough in rent to pay for a mortgage taken out on it.

Second, you can speculate on whether or not a lot of people will suddenly want something, or not want it. Investing in forex, gold, or even BTC are all in the latter camp by default because cash, gold, and BTC do not produce anything, and as such you are guessing how much they will be in demand. The one advantage of gold is that even if no one wants it as an investment, it's still a jewelry/electronics feedstock which means it will not go to zero. BTC is worth nothing if people don't want it as an investment, or even if a better cryptocurrency comes along.

Anyway, the point is that same. The author is claiming that Bitcoin will go up because there will be a panic that scares money into this, and it will drive BTC 10,000. And hey, it might. I think that's a riskier bet than putting it into, say, a real estate investment with a known payout. Or more equipment for a business you own, etc.

Starvation 2017's picture

I think that's a riskier bet than putting it into, say, a real estate investment with a known payout. Or more equipment for a business you own, etc.

I would say on the surface it definitely seems more risky, I think to get past that you have to have an understanding of the core fundamentals of just how BTC operates. Why it's anonymous, why it's secure, why it's virtually unbreakable, the advantages of being your own bank, and the kinds of incentives that exist for that kind of money. I'm not looking to become rich from BTC, I'm not that ambitious and I have a very sceptical view of the future if you couldn't guess from my name. My only goal is storage of value. The fact that it's tripled in value since I bought in is just icing on the cake (I won't sell).

Could BTC become obsolete in light of a better similar cryptocurrency? Absolutely, however it wouldn't be an overnight transition, think months if not years. That's what I believe anyway.

techpriest's picture

Store of value wise, I'm building a garden and grape trellis to get started. Still trying to sell the wife on chickens. Being debt-free (including the house) and some food production is the goal this year.

I do get how BTC operates. There's a lot of claims about how special it is, but fundamentally it's a case of users printing their own currency, but with a ledger that limits the total amount of money, and keeps track of who has what and who exchanged with whom.

Cryptography is layered on to add security and privacy, but fundamentally all of the coins are digital versions of people printing their own money. This is why I do see some benefit of Bitcoin as a wiring service (and you can trade on the volume of wiring since more money in = higher coin price), but fundamentally I don't see it as a store of value.

Starvation 2017's picture

"case of users printing their own currency"

The operative phrase would be "for now". As you may know the cap for bitcoin is set at 21 million, there will never be any more than that because that is how it was designed from the start. Also important to note is that we get closer and closer to that 21m mark the "printing" gives progressively less payout by a factor of two. I believe it's currently down at 25, possibly even 12.5. Either way it get's progressively harder to "get rich quick", not to mention the computing power required to "print" gets exponentially higher as well in accordance with moore's law. This prevents people from having massive mining farms that ultimately claim enough to potentially break the market. Once there is absolute scarcity the inflation/deflation will operate solely on achieving equilbrium with demand, in the same manner as gold. That is the long term value.

TradingTroll's picture

Investing is analyzing a chart to determine which direction the pent-up energy will go in, and buying upon the emergence of said pent-up energy. Fundamentals matter less in a QE NIRP bail-in world.

It's about heat seeking. Where the heat travels, markets levitate.

Eg. Trump election created heat in many copper stocks. You can look at fundamentals all you want and not get a good answer.

Jambo Mambo Bill's picture

What I found about bitcoin:

- NOT PRIVATE - everyone wants everything about you to buy, sell or trade the virtual coins... Gold is more private, you can buy gold without having to prove that you are human.

- NOT SECURED - Despite all the block chain talk, BTC can be wiped clean from your digital wallet or exchange... exchanges don't compromise and you can never get hold at them... sort of dealing with muted Joe Pashi.

- NOT AS FAST TO DEAL - If you need to move money across borders, BTC may help you, but sell it asap. If you need to sell btc in key moments, the block chain can take 'several' fact if your app offered low comission to exchange, your transaction maybe never exchanged...or take days... not funny if you want to sell it when lots of people want to do the same.

- MANIPULATED and SPECULATIVE - Can you trade BTC with leverage? yes! big time! so its being manipulated.... the blockchain maybe secured, but not immune for pump&dump games... btc has no accountability. Perfect for market makers to suck money from it any time they wish...

- NO REAL ASSET BACKING - if something goes wrong, no one will refund your capital, or either you will not be secured by anything....nothing is guaranteed.

Jimmy Jimmereeno's picture

edit @starvation - beat me to it.

This is the same - specious - argument about gold:  if everyone who panics throws their money at Y (gold) then the price of Y (gold) will go up by Q%.

Charles Smith sometimes needs to keep on roofing and leave economics to those who perform the market making functions.


Dame Ednas Possum's picture

Bring out the clowns. 

Here come the part-time, shift-working gold roaches...

"Eerr ... Bit coin sucks... therefore gold sucks" 

Starvation 2017's picture

Misinterpreting my position. My point is that both BTC and gold are equal in that regard, which is WHY I own both.

Dame Ednas Possum's picture

My comment was in response to Jimmy blah blah. 

And gold and BTC are about as equal as a beautiful woman in your arms  compared to an image of a woman on screen while you hold a tissue in one hand and yourself in the other.


XqWretch's picture

Yeah sounds about right. Pretty retarded article

business as stusual's picture

"if everyone is losing their assets, then maybe a fraction of a percent of people will throw their money at X. In this case, X is Bitcoin."


2_legs_bahhhhhd's picture

Only down +60% from last Wednesday, if you bought from a BTC atm. At some point it will be a buy....or by by

ebworthen's picture

Yes, exactly, because whatever you post on your email or online is private and secure, just like the Ethercoin!

All hail Math!  All hail the military controlled Ethernets! 


Raffie's picture

There is people who think Btc could hit $1mil ....

Hard to tell,  the markets and all the evil players have everything such a mess for all I know burnt eggs might be worth $10million this year.

TradingTroll's picture

If the bond markets continue to collapse the big money will be made in the stock markets

Bitcoin is a Chinese capital flight play, not to be confused with an investment.

When capital flight is active then Bitcoin rises.

Bitcoin can also rise as investors frontrun Chinese capital flight. It's been made illegal for most brokers but they used to be able to buy shares cheap and promo a stock and sell to their clients at a higher price, who then watched the stock crash.

Nope, that's not Bitcoin, right??

kamikun's picture

I completely disagree with your overall sentiment, but upvoted because I think you nailed the analysis. I'll just say, any profit is a good profit. Still long btc.

Sh3epdog's picture

I disagree. With that stance then you'd also have to throw out the usefulness of other have assets like gold/silver.

Bitcoin is an ultra secure ledger. Saying it doesn't have value because it's just numbers or a ledger is not to recognize the value gained from having a ledger that is ultra secure when it comes to securing/recording wealth, cannot be shut down by any gov entity, countries will try to ban it and will fail. BTC as a ledger is just a ledger- but think of it as a volume of records or storage space for wealth to be imputed and stored and then extruded at a later point. Sometimes I wonder about a currency/ledger that has no value but is used to price/sort into ratio different items on the market in relation to each other, in a way BTC might be an early experiment close to that. It seems like with money we've put the cart before the horse so to speak. Talking about intrinsic value, you have to people valueing things differently for them to even come together consentually to trade/allow a free market to function to have the necessary objectivity to establish the price where buyer and seller come together. 


Even if you do not see BTC as being useful to store/hold wealth consider -

The remittance market is quite big and companies like western union have been charging exorbitant fee's 8-15% to remit(send) funds. Yes there's new and cheaper options like Venmo and Facebook, but they will not be anywhere as secure as BTC for sending funds. The old Swift network has seen a number of recent hacks/funds lost - institutions,gov's and generally large transfers of wealth are not safe to be done on instant msging money sending apps.

Gold and silver are far less fungible than BTC, and there's the interesting line that fungibility includes privacy as a built in side effect. People in Venezuela are using BTC to purchase food from abroad, there's a good reason people used promisary notes tied to thier identity to redeem gold/silver - there's a risk of carrying the stuff around! 

If BTC goes mainstream it's mkt cap will have to be 40-100k. At 10-20k per coin that'd still be a mkt cap relatively untapped with much room to grow.