RealVision's 15 "Killer Charts" For Q1 2017

Tyler Durden's picture

Ranging from the most expensive stock market ever to the dis-similarity in the economic situations facing Donald Trump and Ronald Reagan; and from the excess liquidity driving the price oil to the extraordinarily dangerous growth of credit (debt) relative to GDP, Raoul Pal's Real Vision has expanded its exceptional services into investment research by publishing the "killer charts" that every market participant should comprehend for the first quarter of 2017...

Real Vision Publications is a bi-weekly investment research service, without the usual spam, sensationalism and BS. With 30 industry thought-leaders, offering a unique investment opinion, original thinking and robust theories. Find out why the founders of Real Vision Publications think you deserve better.

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La morte sorride a tutti's picture

The last chart is brilliant. S&P goes to infinity and beyond!

Wulfkind's picture

The only two charts that are needed is "Reagan vs Trump Economics" and "Household Finances in the Market"

The first shows that Trump CAN NOT make America great again.  It is financially and numerically impossible.  There is no room to go to finance any great expansion in the economy other than by more debt and ZIRP and NIRP  There are no more cheap natural resources that can be had to naturally fund a GREAT expansion of the US economy without going into TRILLIONS of more debt while keeping the interest load low through NIRP and ZIRP.

Which mean inflation for the the things you need to live and lower prices for useless iShit.  That's not a recipe for MAGA.

The Household Finances in the Market chart show what we all know to be true including my above statement.  Bubbles are the only thing holding the market up.  And there are no more bubbles to be had.  This is the last bubble before the Total Cashless Society is ushered in after the coming explosion and world wide depression of the Last Bubble we are in right now.

2020-2030 will be..... no matter if it is Trump's second term or someone else.....will be the decade of the Final Solution.....the worldwide take down and repudiation of debt, in order for the Elite who have position themselves to lap up the ashes on the cheap and to usher in the Total Cashless Society for their ultimate control.

Trump....in this scenario.....is meaningless.  And to make matters worse will be the TOTAL dissillusionment of the populace who voted for him just as the SJW Snowflake dissillusionment with Obama and Hillary is so complete now they are massing for mass civil disobedience against Trump his whole term.

2020-2030 is going to be something to behold as it all falls apart.

Arnold's picture

I agree with the Reagan / Trump time frame comparo.

The rest of your missive is shit.

"Trump....in this scenario.....is meaningless.  And to make matters worse will be the TOTAL dissillusionment of the populace who voted for him just as the SJW Snowflake dissillusionment with Obama and Hillary is so complete now they are massing for mass civil disobedience against Trump his whole term."

 

He does not walk alone.

Wulfkind's picture

" He does not walk alone"

WTF does that mean?  Joe "Six Pack" isn't going to agitate for Trump.  You will never see a "Million Red Neck" march on Washington D.C.  You will never see Nancy Homemaker put her baby in a sling and march down mainstreet and stop traffic in support of Trump.

Trump supporters did everything they were ever going to do to support Trump.  Get off their lazy, hypocritical asses and push a button on a voting screen.  And then go back and push a button from their easy chair to turn on Faux News.

240 years after 1776 to get to where we are now.....and you think one psycho real estate scam artist is going to MAGA ?     LOL !!!  

America can NEVER be great again with such a population of dumbfuck citizens who think that the country can be saved by either a Magic Negro or Lord High Raging Cheeto.

Arnold's picture

You never did see this before, yet he was elected President.

If he fullfills ANYTHING  he ran on, he will be Borglumed.

I suspect that it will be much more.

philipat's picture

What about a mention for the other RealVision partner, Grant WIlliams, author of the excellent "Things that make you go Hmmmmmm.."?

MrSteve's picture

Cashless ??  like the Bitcoin bust now in China?

Muad'Grumps's picture

But what will be the deflator to measure real gains? The Dow could go to 100K nominally, but actual go down in real terms. That's where the inflation tax will be a real bitch where principal is eaten away by the tax man.

You really want to be where the real gains will be made, so you keep something after taxes.

buckstopshere's picture

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXCSRESNS

Excess reserves are going down.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AMBSL

Monetary base is going down.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSL

Total consumer credit rising.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060

Employment-population ratio 25-54 years of age is rising.

max2205's picture

What company will be the fool to buyout  $nflx and mark the end of this idiotic bull (fed induced) market? 

PS it wasn't $msft buying $Lkdn 

dude duderson's picture

Yes, the S&P should continue to go up forever and ever. Excellent analysis: whatever is currently happening, will continue to happen indefinitely.

Arnold's picture

Anything to do with liquidity interests me.

Excess liquidity puzzles me.

With beer goggles on, what would be monetized to provide liquidity?

The future ain't that bright.

Even the warriors could only fund a couple of months of total war before killing the credit line.

Arnold's picture

The rest of the charts, interesting pairings.

buckstopshere's picture

http://pricedingold.com/sp-500/

S&P 500 priced in gold shows us that we may be in a dead cat bounce again.

buckstopshere's picture

Gold mining stocks priced in gold shows us that we may be in an inverse head and shoulders pattern.

http://pricedingold.com/gold-stocks/

Muad'Grumps's picture

It's a shame the chart doesn't show the real long term action. I think it would  indicate a viscous reversal is due where gold stocks will massively outperform bullion. Hell I'll take 3000 gold and 1500 HUI. That alone will change my life. If gold goes higher...5k, 7k, 10K, we're talking stupid money. There really is an asymmetry of historic significance here with a lost cost of entry even with HUI at 200.

buckstopshere's picture

Gold and silver mining stocks are an extreme contrarian play.

The XAU (Philadelphia gold and silver mining index) goes back as far as the early 1980's. I use the XAU to gold ratio sometimes to compare other assets.

The upside potential for the miners is tantalizing, but it will be a very volatile ride up.

hotrod's picture

There you have it.  S&P more than 100% from current levels.  See you at 4000 plus in the next couple of years.

illuminatus's picture

In this context it's good to remember what Yogi  Berra had to say:

It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future.

mc888's picture

When you come to a fork in the road, take it.

 

Tom Green Swedish's picture

they think millennial dare weird check out our president and paul krugman. Yea