A More Dovish Janet Yellen Speaks Again, Sees No Risks Of Economic Overheating

Tyler Durden's picture

Following her Trump-weaker-dollar-destroying performance yesterday, Fed chair Janet Yellen reprises her role as Mnuchin-slayer tonight with an appearance at Stanford's Institute for Economic Policy Research. In a speech entitlted "The Economic Outlook and Conduct of Monetary Policy" she is expected to deliver a similarly hawkish tone confirming multiple rate hikes (though no rush) and potentially erasing the dollar weakness from today...

In her latest speech, which while a recap of remarks deliver yesterday had a far more dovish tone, Yellen reiterated monetary policy has not fallen behind the curve because the economy is not overheating and stated she well understood the risk of letting the economy run too hot for too long, MNI noted.

Delivering her second speech on Fed policy in two days and on the eve of President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration, she repeated her assessment that it is prudent to remove accommodation gradually over time as the U.S. labor market has largely recovered from the severe downturn in the wake of the financial crisis and as inflation stands much closer to the Fed's 2% objective than its first rate hike a year earlier.

"I consider it prudent to adjust the stance of monetary policy gradually over time -- a strategy that should improve the prospects that the economy will achieve sustainable growth with the labor market operating at full employment and inflation running at about 2 percent."

On Wednesday, Yellen said the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee expects to raise interest rates a few times a year until it reaches 3% by the end of 2019. But in her Thursday evening speech, Yellen delved into some of the "considerable" uncertainties that cloud the FOMC's call.

"it is important to emphasize the considerable uncertainty that attaches to such assessments and the need to constantly update them." adding that "In particular, the path of the neutral federal funds rate, which plays an important role in determining the appropriate policy path, is highly uncertain."

Some key factors bearing on the path of the neutral rate include productivity growth, the strength of global growth as well as potential for changes in fiscal policy -- a likely reference to Trump's promises to cut taxes, deregulate businesses and invest in infrastructure.  

"I would mention the potential for changes in fiscal policy to affect the economic outlook and the appropriate policy path. At this point, however, the size, timing, and composition of such changes remain uncertain," she said.

"However, as this discussion highlights, the course of monetary policy over the next few years will depend on many different factors, of which fiscal policy is just one."

Global growth could play another important role on the neutral rate through both trade and financial channels, the Fed chair said.

More importantly, she said that major swings in the dollar's exchange rate could present a headwind to inflation moving up to the Fed's target over the next couple years as the FOMC currently expects.

The dollar had another mention, when Yellen said "although core inflation is rising gradually from a low level, this increase mainly reflects the waning of the effects of earlier movements in the dollar, not upward pressure from resource utilization."

On the other hand, Yellen said she considers it "unlikely" that overheating "could rapidly emerge" as the labor market strengthens further, causing inflation to surge.

Economic growth is unlikely to pick up markedly in the near term, and the pace of monthly job gains has slowed in the past year. At the same time, wage growth has remained subdued.

"In the coming months, I expect some further strengthening in labor market conditions as the economy continues to expand at a moderate pace -- a view that is shared by most of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee," she said.  

Yellen also spent a portion of her speech Thursday discussing benchmark policy rules, saying while they offer useful guidance, they are arguable still too restrictive.

Her full speech can be found here.

 

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Janet Yellen Live Feed (due to begin at 2000ET)...

 

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lil dirtball's picture

Speaking of the Munchkin:

Mnuchin Wants To INCREASE The Size Of The IRS

http://dailycaller.com/2017/01/19/mnuchin-wants-to-increase-the-size-of-...

espirit's picture

TLDR. But I can surmise: Blah, blah, blah, fuck you plebes, blah, blah.

What did I win?

Two-bits's picture

Can't we drone this guy?

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) Two-bits Jan 19, 2017 8:17 PM

I'm sorry but I think she is going to die too.

Twee Surgeon's picture

She is the latest face of the Federal reserve bank formed in 1913'ish ? In 1914 world war I started and how many millions died ? about 3 million men died at the battle of Ypres, French, German, British and others. How many did the Bolshevicks kill around the same time in Russia ? Millions ? Mao's little murder march of how many millions ? Half a Billion human lives wiped of the planet in 2 or 3 decades, the Munitions companies got rich, Wall Street did quite nicely.

The evidence is not even hidden, What the fuck people ! The Fed has to go down the shitter where it belongs, with all the other Pig Snouts.

This pathetic grandma is laying down the law of the land ? How long, my brothers, until you banish this poison from your lands and live in peace again ?

ebworthen's picture

Yellen the Homunculus sees no problems, as she slurs out more economic alchemy. 

"Lead into Gold..." blah, blah, blah.  No problem here:  http://www.usdebtclock.org/

I agree, down the shitter with the FED!  Flush that turd!

If money is free, why should anyone labor?

Uzda Farce's picture
Uzda Farce (not verified) Twee Surgeon Jan 19, 2017 9:44 PM

Janet Yellen, like every other Fed chairman since WW2, is a member of the Rockefeller/CFR. She was also on the faculty of the London School of Economics (LSE), sponsored by the Rockefellers since the 1920s. Other LSE almuni include CFR members Stanley Fischer, Robert Rubin, Paul Volcker, George Soros and David Rockefeller himself. Rubin is now co-chairman of the CFR. See member lists at cfr dot org.

http://www.cfr.org/staff/b292?id=292

 

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) lil dirtball Jan 19, 2017 8:19 PM

mabye I should check Mnuchin (is he chinese?) he might be sick.

wisetrader224's picture
wisetrader224 (not verified) lil dirtball Jan 19, 2017 8:36 PM

That would be a big mistake. 

JRobby's picture

He should, there are a lot of tax cheats. Some really gigantic ones actually. Clinton Global Initiative for one.

lil dirtball's picture

> ... there are a lot of tax cheats.

I know, right? Who are these assholes to hold back on paying their fair share?

Besides, I like it because it will create high-paying, secure jobs with lots of benefits.

I wonder if these new people will be able to work from home in their pajamas? That would be cool.

logicalman's picture

Parasites have to be careful not to kill the host, or be such an inconvenience that the host looks for a cure.

I think the host is starting to feel uneasy.

 

SallySnyd's picture

No matter what Ms. Yellen may say about the economy, this one measure shows how high economic uncertainty has become:

 

http://viableopposition.blogspot.hk/2017/01/ignoring-reality-of-economic...

 

It certainly appears that the stock market, in particular those in the United States, is not reflecting any sense of the elevated levels of monetary, fiscal and regulatory uncertainties that exist in the "real world".

 

 

wisetrader224's picture
wisetrader224 (not verified) SallySnyd Jan 19, 2017 8:40 PM

Trump willl use her and Obama as the fall guys for when the economy crashes over this next year. 

JRobby's picture

"Yellen reiterated that the Fed has not fallen behind the curve with monetary policy"

They fell off the curve a long, long time ago. Believing your own bullshit numbers will screw a CB up!

LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD's picture
LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD (not verified) JRobby Jan 19, 2017 10:25 PM

Regarding the failed trader, now spammer, who logs in with 30 of its spam accounts to give himself thumbs ups while there are two votes on all other posts, posting below:

This mom’s basement dwelling, failed trader, now spammer, registered the following spam accounts to promote their scam.

Please don't give him the satisfaction of seeing his site hit counter go up from ZH clicks. He's not very bright, but eventually he’ll go away if his spam scam doesn't bring income from ZH. The spam accounts are: AliSONY, Babs.St.Louis, Billy G, Chi Juan, Dr.Carl, ErikE, FemDayTrader, FRLEPU, Irvingm, jasony, John Beau, KC Spike, MadhyaBharatx, Marilee, MexInvest, MikeM54, Mon T, P Christmas Carole, Penny Trader, Pinky and the Brain, PUNE,  RoBERTAZ, RonnieM, Sonya B59, Stan Your Man, StevieTexie, Timming, Van G, Virginia Wooolf, wisetrader224, and xantippa

Chi Juan's picture

Blah Blah Blah. Yellen is a moron.

 

Too many people are guessing what the markets will do and are calling themselves analysts. Nice to see there are some real analysts out there.

 

The group of analysts who split off from Goldman about 30 years ago have been nailing markets. 

Their charts on one of their FB pages contains past charts that prove their correctness with market calls.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/166578775325/photos/a.10153488951800326.1073741827.166578775325/10154415124400326/?type=3&theater 

2_legs_bahhhhhd's picture

Ffs... SECURITY... There is a giant turd in the lobby.

MexInvest's picture

They are the only real analyst left.  They are the only analyst who makes a prediction and the prediction comes true.  Those charts you share prove that. Thank

chubbyjjfong's picture

Let me guess, you and Ch Juan have been members of ZH for approximately 5 weeks and a few days give or take. Maybe also you state that you are married with beautiful kids. Congratulations on your spam fest.

ErikE's picture

LOL.  Did you bust them?  Good charts though so I am not so sure.  Did you even look at the charts from the analyst?

I think they are just bragging if you ask me. I mean I have not been on ZH for but a couple of months and only come on a couple times a week. Not all of us live on here. lol 

chubbyjjfong's picture

Just coincidence that you too have been a member of ZH for approximately 5 weeks and are some kind of turd polishing analyst of some horeshit description. It is also astonishing that you managed to both junk me and comment in less than a few minutes. Well strike me bloody hooray.

wisetrader224's picture
wisetrader224 (not verified) chubbyjjfong Jan 19, 2017 8:38 PM

5 weeks 5 years, who cares? What matters is if the information is objective and true. I think there are a lot of new people on here every day.  I also know that Shepwave has been onliine since 2003 and before that their key analysts were with Goldman Sachs.  Just saying to do your research before jumping to conclusions. I mean a lot of people come to ZH. Some idiots, mostly idiots, and some smart. Time spent on ZH does not reflect their intelligence level. 

chubbyjjfong's picture

Well fuck me if your post aint a carbon copy of that of MikeM54....

"Just do a little reasearch you will find that Shepwave was founded over 30 years ago from some Ex Goldman Sachs analysts. Their website alone has been on line since 2003.  That has absolutely no relevance to how long the person who is commenting about them has been on ZH. WOW, what a liberal logical fallacy. We are all so sick of liberal's lack of logical reasoning"

 

Well.. tea bag a bucket of acetone after dry shaving my pubes.. I mean what a coincidence, just baste my cock in Jam and strap me to a termite hill..

Irvingm's picture

There are a lot of people on here who discuss Shepwave.  I hvae counted at least 100 or so over the past 2 years. They come in phases.

 

Their  charts and anahysis are good. no denying that. 

chubbyjjfong's picture

AliSONY, Babs.St.Louis, Billy G, Chi Juan, Dr.Carl, ErikE, FemDayTrader, FRLEPU, Irvingm, jasony, John Beau, KC Spike, MadhyaBharatx, Marilee, MexInvest,MikeM54, Mon T, P Christmas Carole, Penny Trader, Pinky and the Brain, PUNE,  RoBERTAZ, RonnieM, Sonya B59, Stan Your Man, StevieTexie, Timming, Van G, Virginia Wooolf, wisetrader224, and xantippa

JUST FUCK OFF, THE WHOLE LOT OF YOU!

Marilee's picture

I have seen a whole lot of shepwave people on here lately but I hvae seen them for years on here too. Not really surprising. 

 

Those charts are good and any trader would love to have that kind of accuracy. Look where gold and the QQQ have gone since they made those predictions.  So, there may be some spammers or maybe just some braggers, either way, those are some darn good charts and good analysis.

chubbyjjfong's picture

Its hilarious to think that you logged in as all your alias's, just to junk me. I feel honoured. You really do have your titties all twisted now dont you.

LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD's picture
LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD (not verified) chubbyjjfong Jan 19, 2017 10:22 PM

This mom’s basement dwelling, failed trader, now spammer, registered the following spam accounts to promote their scam.

Please don't give him the satisfaction of seeing his site hit counter go up from ZH clicks. He's not very bright, but eventually he’ll go away if his spam scam doesn't bring income from ZH. The spam accounts are: AliSONY, Babs.St.Louis, Billy G, Chi Juan, Dr.Carl, ErikE, FemDayTrader, FRLEPU, Irvingm, jasony, John Beau, KC Spike, MadhyaBharatx, Marilee, MexInvest, MikeM54, Mon T, P Christmas Carole, Penny Trader, Pinky and the Brain, PUNE,  RoBERTAZ, RonnieM, Sonya B59, Stan Your Man, StevieTexie, Timming, Van G, Virginia Wooolf, wisetrader224, and xantippa

DavidC's picture

Member for 4 weeks 5 days.

DavidC

Irvingm's picture

I mean look at this guy.   Shepwave is not even a member of Zerohedge. At least I don't think they are. This guy makes no sense.

 

Shepwave has been in business since the 90's their current website has been online for 14 years. not 4 weeks and 5 days or what ever this guy is saying. What an idiiot. 

LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD's picture
LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD (not verified) Irvingm Jan 19, 2017 10:23 PM

This mom’s basement dwelling, failed trader, now spammer, registered the following spam accounts to promote their scam.

Please don't give him the satisfaction of seeing his site hit counter go up from ZH clicks. He's not very bright, but eventually he’ll go away if his spam scam doesn't bring income from ZH. The spam accounts are: AliSONY, Babs.St.Louis, Billy G, Chi Juan, Dr.Carl, ErikE, FemDayTrader, FRLEPU, Irvingm, jasony, John Beau, KC Spike, MadhyaBharatx, Marilee, MexInvest, MikeM54, Mon T, P Christmas Carole, Penny Trader, Pinky and the Brain, PUNE,  RoBERTAZ, RonnieM, Sonya B59, Stan Your Man, StevieTexie, Timming, Van G, Virginia Wooolf, wisetrader224, and xantippa

Irvingm's picture

You are wasting your time trying to help anyone on here. Just look at these idiots on here. Most of them are not even traders. In fact I would say that less than 1% of the people on here actually have over $100 to their name. Just look at their posts. 

P Christmas Carole's picture

There used to be a lot more traders. But most of them have gone broke following the bearish stance of ZH and going short for the last five years. Many have left  for good. Probably committed suicide they lost so much money.

Shepwave has been nailing markets. Their charts prove it.

LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD's picture
LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD (not verified) P Christmas Carole Jan 19, 2017 10:23 PM

This mom’s basement dwelling, failed trader, now spammer, registered the following spam accounts to promote their scam.

Please don't give him the satisfaction of seeing his site hit counter go up from ZH clicks. He's not very bright, but eventually he’ll go away if his spam scam doesn't bring income from ZH. The spam accounts are: AliSONY, Babs.St.Louis, Billy G, Chi Juan, Dr.Carl, ErikE, FemDayTrader, FRLEPU, Irvingm, jasony, John Beau, KC Spike, MadhyaBharatx, Marilee, MexInvest, MikeM54, Mon T, P Christmas Carole, Penny Trader, Pinky and the Brain, PUNE,  RoBERTAZ, RonnieM, Sonya B59, Stan Your Man, StevieTexie, Timming, Van G, Virginia Wooolf, wisetrader224, and xantippa

Stan522's picture

SHUT UP BITCH!

NihilistZerO___'s picture

It took 8 years for the FED to realize the dollar was weak?  How convenient...

dude duderson's picture

why is she not in the kitchen...of a prison?

U4 eee aaa's picture

because not even a prison would grind up that body and put it in the chili

mtanimal's picture

Jesus Christ, Tylers.  Do you have to put up that woman's photo and Soro's at the same time.  I'm trying to cut down.

Peak Finance's picture

What the hell is grandma doing up at this hour? 

Boris Badenov's picture

Tell me again why IN flation is good? Good for Whom? They are deathly afraid of DE flation.

Read "Creature from Jekyll Island" it ruined my life.

Kidbuck's picture

If I let my horse stick 2 percent of his cock down Yellen's throat it isn't a crime. Even If I let him do it every year.

Silver Savior's picture

Inflation is good for me because I mostly invest in precious metals.

Wilcox1's picture

Get her the fuck Outta Here!! Nearest Exit. Take her Coat. Throw her into the Cold. Out! GET HER OUT !!

Ness.'s picture

For old times sake I figured I post the video of Yellen gaging on her own lies.  

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJ2UAYgIXG8

 

NobodyNowhere's picture

Fed is independent - evidenced by every Fed chairperson since 1970s (may be earlier) from the 2 per cent tribe.

 

are we there yet's picture

Picture Janet Yellen in the nude,
Picture Hillary Clinton in the nude,
Now picture them trying to dance ballet in the Swan lake ballet,
That is how competent they are (not) at managing the economy and our country.
Janet is a lost puppy clueless in the rain.

War Machine's picture

Pardon me, but hasnt she simply unpacked a set of guesses, in no way based on falsifiable assertions?

And if economists are not engaged in science, and are not able to prevent crashes, etc., why are they, and not a free market, in charge of determining rates?

Pardon any ignorance showcased by the above, and I'd be happy to hear the thoughts of the ZH commentariat for whom her comments may make more precise and/or technical sense.

20 trillion or so in debt... and growing ever faster than the declining-value currency available to pay it.

I just don't understand why people making guesses, with a demonstrated history of being wrong, are taken so seriously (apart from how the markets may react to those guesses and claims).

If it isnt mostly bullshit, why is there so much disagreement by phds in economics?