Doug Casey Warns "Every American Needs To Be Concerned Right Now"

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com,

Making The Chicken Run, Part 1

“Making the chicken run” is what Rhodesians used to say about neighbors who packed up and got out during the ’60s and ’70s, before the place became Zimbabwe. It was considered “unpatriotic” to leave Rhodesia. But it was genuinely idiotic not to.

I’ve written many times about the importance of internationalizing your assets, your mode of living, and your way of thinking. I suspect most readers have treated those articles as they might a travelogue to some distant and exotic land: interesting fodder for cocktail party chatter, but basically academic and of little immediate personal relevance.

I’m directing these comments toward the U.S. mainly because that’s where the problem is most acute, but they’re applicable to most countries.

Now, in 2017, the U.S. is in real trouble. Not as bad as Rhodesia 40 years ago—and definitely a different kind of trouble—but plenty serious. For many years, it’s been obvious that the country was eventually going to hit the wall, and now the inevitable is rapidly becoming imminent.

What do I mean by that? There’s plenty of reason to be concerned about things financial and economic. But I personally believe we haven't been bearish enough on the eventual social and political fallout from the Greater Depression. Nothing is certain, but the odds are high that the U.S. is going into a time of troubles at least as bad as any experienced in any advanced country in the last century.

I hate saying things like that, if only because it sounds outrageous and inflammatory and can create a credibility gap. It invites arguments with people, and although I enjoy discussion, I dislike arguing.

It strikes most people as outrageous because the long-running post-WWII boom has been punctuated only by brief recessions. After 70 years, why should it ever end? The thought of a nasty end certainly runs counter to the experience of almost everyone now alive—including myself—and our personal experience is what we tend to trust most. But it seems to me we're very close to a tipping point. Ice stays ice even while it’s being warmed—until the temperature goes over 32° F, where it changes very quickly into something very different.

First, the Economy

That point—economic bankruptcy accompanied by financial chaos—is quickly approaching for the U.S. government. With deficits over a trillion dollars per year for as far as the eye can see, the U.S. Treasury will very soon be unable to roll over its maturing debt at anything near current interest rates. The only reliable buyer will be the Federal Reserve, which can buy only by creating new dollars.

Within the next 24 months, the dollar is likely to start losing value rapidly and noticeably. Foreigners, who own over 6 trillion of them (including T-bills and other IOUs), will start panicking to dump them. So will Americans. The dollar bond market, today worth $40 trillion, will be devastated by much higher interest rates, a rapidly depreciating dollar, and an epidemic of defaults.

And that will be just the start of the trouble. Since the U.S. property market floats on a sea of debt (and is easy to tax), it’s also going to be hit very hard, again, this time by stifling mortgage rates. The next step is up for interest rates. Forget about property owners paying their existing mortgages; many won’t be able to pay their taxes and utilities, and maintenance will be out of the question.

The pain will spread. Insurance companies are invested mostly in bonds and real estate; many will go bankrupt. The same is true of most pension funds. If the stock market doesn’t collapse, it will only be because money is looking for a place to hide from inflation. The payout for Social Security will drop significantly in real terms, if not in dollars. The standard of living of most Americans will fall.

This rough sequence of events has happened in many countries in recent decades, and they’ve survived the tough times. But it has the potential, at least in relative terms, to be more serious in the U.S. than it was in Argentina, Brazil, Serbia, Russia, Mozambique, or Zimbabwe for two main reasons.

First, many people in those countries knew they couldn’t trust their government and acted accordingly, even in contravention of the law, by accumulating assets elsewhere. So, there was a significant pool of capital available for rebuilding. Americans, on the other hand, tend to be much more insular, law-abiding, and trusting in their government. When they lose their U.S. assets, they'll have lost everything.

Second, those societies were significantly more rural than the U.S. is today. As in the America of 100 years ago, much of the population lived quite close to the land and had practical skills and habits that helped them get through the tough times. For 21st-century Americans, it's a different story. Shortages and disorder are going to hit commuters who live in suburbs, and urban dwellers who think milk appears in cartons magically, like a ton of bricks.

One thing you can absolutely count on is that everyone will look to the government to “do something.” Americans really do think governments control the way the world works. Another certainty is that the U.S. government will “step in” massively, because everyone will want them to, and the politicians themselves believe they should. This will greatly aggravate the crisis and make it last much longer than necessary.

Then It Gets Serious

But that’s just over the short run. The long run is much more serious because the next chapter of the Greater Depression has every chance of radically, and at least semi-permanently, overturning the basic character of American life. Ice turned to water—suddenly and unexpectedly—in Russia in 1918, Germany in 1933, China in 1949, Vietnam in 1954, Cambodia in 1975, and Rwanda in 1995. Those are just the first examples that come to mind. There are scores more.

The economic events I’ve outlined are going to mean serious hardship and unpleasantness for many people. But that doesn't concern me nearly as much as the social and political reaction.

*  *  *

Doug says we're on the edge of a genuine precipice. The economy is crumbling… and there's a good chance things will only get worse. This is exactly why Doug and his team put together a time-sensitive video explaining how it could all go down. A financial shock far greater than 2008 could strike America during Trump's first 100 days in office. It could either wipe out a big part of your savings... or be the fortune-building opportunity of a lifetime. Click here to watch it now.

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Deplorable's picture

Building a financial bomb shelter and getting ready to cut and run.

Jethro's picture

Ahhh, these articles.  Just where in the hell would I relocate to?  And more importantly...why?  I would rather fight for my homeland.  I will not ever be a refugee, and be somebody else's burden (even though I have several useful skillsets). 

Latitude25's picture

Yeah.  I just came back from Bolivia and the plane was loaded with people from Argentina who are entering on legal visas but planning to overstay and work.  Now why would they want to bail out of Casey's paradise?

Escrava Isaura's picture

The writer, Doug Casey, relocated to Argentina.

They relocate here because the image, meaning, illusion that the US presents, projects to the world. 

 

 

 

 

Twee Surgeon's picture

Keep him, he'll fit right in, until the real revolution comes to Argie-bargie. Then he will be jumping on a jet to write more crap, elsewhere.

You deserve each other. You can chit chat all night at the coffee house about the worldly things and your ideas of injustice, then one night he gets on a plane because he got a phone call and you didn't.

Lore's picture

Sorry, Casey Research, but somebody needs to call you on this: 

"In Canada, inflation ignited after their currency, the Loonie, crashed 25%. Now, prices for basic groceries are running wild: a single cucumber goes for $3, eggs $8, you’ll pay $15 for Frosted Flakes, and upwards of $17 bucks for a gallon of milk."

HUH?  I just paid $.79 for a cucumber, $2.49 for a big head of cauliflower, $2.29 for a dozen eggs, $2.50 for a large box of Quaker Harvest Crunch (sale), and $3.99 for 4 litres (1 gal) milk. 

One of my favorite old quotes from Doug Casey is more or less as follows: "There's enough trouble in the world without having to make stuff up."

Bay of Pigs's picture

Casey is entertaining but not very accurate or ethical either. I should know, I subscribed to his shitty newsletter for years.

opport.knocks's picture

True, the only place you pay those high prices in Canada is in the far north where everything is flown in by small plane.

Jethro's picture

Seems fairly comparable pricing to the center of the US. 

cmdr.paco's picture

Unfortunately this is the style recently on ZH - make stuff up and claim apocalypse is comming - unfortunately apocalypse IS comming but not from the directions the propagande is letting us believe ....

Stroke's picture

Doug Casey ( along with Simon Soverign man ) probably are cashed up with little family, and are prone to carpetbagging

Me?...I'm stayin'...as Oshithead once said I'll "cling to my guns, and God"

JamesBond's picture

Learn to make moonshine, beer, and wine and you will always have an income.

 

jb

db51's picture

Quick Motherfuckers...RUN...run from your houses in rural America and take flight to safety near a big city, you know, where all the SJW fuckers and their minions reside...there will be safe spaces, safety pins, fucking teddy bear and Playdough...Dear God...do it now...while you still have a chance   100 days isn't long to secure your future in a coastal city near high population density areas...you'll be safe there....instead of hunkering down with your food storage, ammo, guns and Bibles....and if you're fortunate enough to have some real coin saved up....head to Germany where you can shelter in place with a gang of Musloid refugees.    Ok...gotta go boys...time's wasting.

Jethro's picture

Nah, no thanks.  I will stay where I am

ebworthen's picture

Lovely stream of sarcasm, +1

What Casey doesn't realize is that this Nation NEEDS the shit to hit the fan; far too many years of somnolent acquiescence.

Jethro's picture

That was actually a beautiful way to phrase the situation.

Joe Sichs Pach's picture

If Casey's right, how about: bankruptcy, jubilee and back to the gold standard?

Everybody freaks about what "may happen" until shit actually happens. It's always different. The bold roll the dice and give it a go.

Jethro's picture

It would be no skin off my nose.  But I can't imagine the psychopaths in the banking industry relinquishing control without a fight. 

chiswickcat's picture

Cool skills like nunchucks and stuff?

Jethro's picture

Civil engineering, decades of vegetable gardening, raising all kinds of livestock, making beer, wine, etc.  Decades of martial arts, some time as a grunt in the USMC, some time as a bouncer, self employed PI, etc.  The normal working dude stuff.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Cool. Now take your "Radius of Gyration" and go to the next level:  connect with similar people and form a local network.

Best wishes.

Jethro's picture

Doing it already.  Best wishes to you too!

HillaryOdor's picture

You're only a burden to societies dumb enough to institute a welfare state that turns human beings from assets into liabilities.  And what exactly is there to fight for?  The people?  They're the ones who let this all happen by supporting government in the first place.  They deserve what they're gonna get.  So what are you fighting for?  The government?  LMAO!  The only thing good is the land.  Good luck when America goes full socialist, which they most certainly will.   It isn't a free republic anymore, hasn't been for a long time, and it will only get worse.  The American they teach you about in school has been dead for a long time.  This is now a zombie land that celebrates entitlement, ignorance, and laziness.

Jethro's picture

I see your point.  But maybe I am just too stubborn, and perhaps too old and set in my ways?  I will stay and fight if need be.  I hope that burden falls on me, and not my daughters. 

TuPhat's picture

I don't see his point.  When the US goes down there will be trouble everywhere and americans will be hated everywhere.  Why go somewhere else and fight?  I will stay here and fight for my land.  If you don't own any you should get some or feel free to leave.  You won't be missed.

ThreeRs's picture

"And what exactly is there to fight for?  The people?  They're the ones who let this all happen by supporting government in the first place."

 

And I bet you think the victim, the mark if you will, of a game of confidence is the criminal for falling for it, versus the conmen and women who perpetrated the fraud to begin with..

 

The People did not ask for propaganda to be used against them, nor did they employ any tools of mass manipulation against themselves. All the People did here was fail to see it coming. For decades.

 

But, now we see how we've been victimized, all of us, by the globalists, both foreign and domestic.

 

There's a herd of snowflakes right now who refuse to believe their eyes. Look at 'em all. Pathetic. I hope they grow up to be Americans, I really do.

rejected's picture

Sometimes you have to do what has to be done. It's getting near.

HillaryOdor's picture

I do not think the victim of a con is a criminal, just an idiot if the con is really obvious ...

but... if they support a system whose very existence depends on the perpetual violation of the natural rights of all their fellow citizens, then they are no better than the worst criminals.  Of course by definition they are not criminials since the con is the law itself, but if they fall for that, then yes they are the problem.  They never had the right in the first place to impose such a system on those who were unwilling.  It's not like the government has just barely stepped over the line, and only just recently.  They've been way way out of control since before I was born, and now the statists are just doubling down over and over and over.  Yes, what we really need is MORE government to fix the broken government, and all of course at the federal level so no one can escape, as long as it's on my side.  Newsflash: It's never on your side.  Fuck 'em.  They're asking for it.

And at the very least, if you don't hate them like I sometimes do, you shouldn't feel bad for them.  It's just natural selection at work.  Western civilization in the 21st century has earned the mother of all Darwin awards.  

Ace006's picture

No confidence game was necessary. Americans by the millions wanted something for nothing from daddy government who would kiss everything better. The "confidence game" was nothing more than "How about this freebie?" The "victims" lapped it up. Goodbye Constitution. Hello third-world trash heap.

Falcon49's picture

The goal is to turn us all into liabilities....with dependency come control.  Once total control has be obtained they can cull the heard...or, they can let the heard turn on itself.

Singelguy's picture

Socialism works until you run out of other people's money. Europe is much further along that path and their socialist society will collapse much sooner. Hopefully TPTB will watch and learn and reverse course.

Victor von Doom's picture

No need to leave. Just make sure you are always in a healthy, white, conservative area when TSHTF - preferably farmland.

Let the Libtards and barbarians slaughter each other in the cities - no need to get mixed up in that shit until it's time to put the house in order.

After the collapse a leader will come. It'll be your decision then to throw your lot in with him or not.

Plenty of time to fight a Civil War. No need to rush into it.

Jethro's picture

I already live out in the sticks in one of the most conservative areas in the country.  I like my odds....but mother nature does try to kill us quite a bit. 

tarabel's picture

 

 

I seem to recall that old Ragnar Benson made the same observation-- never, never, never allow yourself to become a refugee. You'll only die among strangers.

Ben A Drill's picture

Does this mean more EBT cards or less?

max2205's picture

So the NY Fed desk shuts down?  Didn't think so  

LN's picture

A multi billionaire, could have lived the rest of his days in the lap of luxury.  Why he chose to take the office of president, will remain a mystery to me.

Thank you Donald J. Trump, there are a few out here that have your back.  Keep moving forward.

LN

CheapBastard's picture

God Bless him. A selfless man who has been working 24/7 trying to save Americans from their own stupidity ain't easy.

Not to mention the past three administrations rife with corruption and crookedness. he does seem to have monster energy.

Defeated 16 repugnican competitors and two Democrat extremists ain't easy esp when he was self-funded.

If there isa God, he is on Trump's side.

 

LN's picture

His consistency in his views over the last 30 years beggars belief.  Are we worthy is the only question I see remaining.

I hope so.

LN

jomama's picture

What the fuck is wrong with you.

LN's picture

I'm not like you.

LN

rejected's picture

said while looking in a mirror.

Lore's picture

Hope he smartens up fast. His geopolitical views as expressed in books like Crippled America seem alarmingly shallow and innocent, dangerously vulnerable to manipulation by the very interests that supporters expect him to challenge. 'Going along to get along' only works until it doesn't.

Ace006's picture

But snafew thinks he really didn't want to be president.

Snaffew's picture

i don't think he really wanted to be President---when they announced he was going to win, Trump looked like a deer in the headlights, as if he was shitting his pants and wondering wtf he just got himself into.

LN's picture

He stated in an Oparh Winfrey show 35 +/- years ago, he had no desire to be president of the United States, when asked point blank.  He also said he would not rule this out if the country continued down its current path, but he would perfer someone else step up and take care of matters.

Consistency counts, I guess no one stepped up to suit him.

LN

iAmerican3's picture
iAmerican3 (not verified) Snaffew Jan 21, 2017 10:04 PM

Mr. Trump's ego and God's grace made him president, after Homobama ridiculed his hair from the podium at the WH Correspondents Dinner...thank God.

Now his ego and God's infinite grace, having triggered the Apocalypse and his calling on God to protect Our Holy Nation yesterday, shall see him and real Americans through to a successful presidency, the Beast now upon us, as prophesied, cast down, praise God. 

Vlad the Inhaler's picture

Mostly for his big fat ego.  I wish him luck, but most of his ideas are lame.  Domestic oil and coal are a bust.  Shovel ready infrastructure projects are few.  Most manufacturing jobs were lost to robots, not trade.  Deregulating the big banks does not sound that great of an idea.  Repatriating foreign cash will mostly go to buybacks.  Bond market vigilantes are not going to let him run up the deficit too much.   If he can take the shackles off small business that will be his best bet.  But either way he is better than the estabishment warmongers.

Richard Head's picture

You fool, there are no more "bond vigilantes." Did you just get out of prison or something?