Doug Casey Warns "Every American Needs To Be Concerned Right Now"

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com,

Making The Chicken Run, Part 1

“Making the chicken run” is what Rhodesians used to say about neighbors who packed up and got out during the ’60s and ’70s, before the place became Zimbabwe. It was considered “unpatriotic” to leave Rhodesia. But it was genuinely idiotic not to.

I’ve written many times about the importance of internationalizing your assets, your mode of living, and your way of thinking. I suspect most readers have treated those articles as they might a travelogue to some distant and exotic land: interesting fodder for cocktail party chatter, but basically academic and of little immediate personal relevance.

I’m directing these comments toward the U.S. mainly because that’s where the problem is most acute, but they’re applicable to most countries.

Now, in 2017, the U.S. is in real trouble. Not as bad as Rhodesia 40 years ago—and definitely a different kind of trouble—but plenty serious. For many years, it’s been obvious that the country was eventually going to hit the wall, and now the inevitable is rapidly becoming imminent.

What do I mean by that? There’s plenty of reason to be concerned about things financial and economic. But I personally believe we haven't been bearish enough on the eventual social and political fallout from the Greater Depression. Nothing is certain, but the odds are high that the U.S. is going into a time of troubles at least as bad as any experienced in any advanced country in the last century.

I hate saying things like that, if only because it sounds outrageous and inflammatory and can create a credibility gap. It invites arguments with people, and although I enjoy discussion, I dislike arguing.

It strikes most people as outrageous because the long-running post-WWII boom has been punctuated only by brief recessions. After 70 years, why should it ever end? The thought of a nasty end certainly runs counter to the experience of almost everyone now alive—including myself—and our personal experience is what we tend to trust most. But it seems to me we're very close to a tipping point. Ice stays ice even while it’s being warmed—until the temperature goes over 32° F, where it changes very quickly into something very different.

First, the Economy

That point—economic bankruptcy accompanied by financial chaos—is quickly approaching for the U.S. government. With deficits over a trillion dollars per year for as far as the eye can see, the U.S. Treasury will very soon be unable to roll over its maturing debt at anything near current interest rates. The only reliable buyer will be the Federal Reserve, which can buy only by creating new dollars.

Within the next 24 months, the dollar is likely to start losing value rapidly and noticeably. Foreigners, who own over 6 trillion of them (including T-bills and other IOUs), will start panicking to dump them. So will Americans. The dollar bond market, today worth $40 trillion, will be devastated by much higher interest rates, a rapidly depreciating dollar, and an epidemic of defaults.

And that will be just the start of the trouble. Since the U.S. property market floats on a sea of debt (and is easy to tax), it’s also going to be hit very hard, again, this time by stifling mortgage rates. The next step is up for interest rates. Forget about property owners paying their existing mortgages; many won’t be able to pay their taxes and utilities, and maintenance will be out of the question.

The pain will spread. Insurance companies are invested mostly in bonds and real estate; many will go bankrupt. The same is true of most pension funds. If the stock market doesn’t collapse, it will only be because money is looking for a place to hide from inflation. The payout for Social Security will drop significantly in real terms, if not in dollars. The standard of living of most Americans will fall.

This rough sequence of events has happened in many countries in recent decades, and they’ve survived the tough times. But it has the potential, at least in relative terms, to be more serious in the U.S. than it was in Argentina, Brazil, Serbia, Russia, Mozambique, or Zimbabwe for two main reasons.

First, many people in those countries knew they couldn’t trust their government and acted accordingly, even in contravention of the law, by accumulating assets elsewhere. So, there was a significant pool of capital available for rebuilding. Americans, on the other hand, tend to be much more insular, law-abiding, and trusting in their government. When they lose their U.S. assets, they'll have lost everything.

Second, those societies were significantly more rural than the U.S. is today. As in the America of 100 years ago, much of the population lived quite close to the land and had practical skills and habits that helped them get through the tough times. For 21st-century Americans, it's a different story. Shortages and disorder are going to hit commuters who live in suburbs, and urban dwellers who think milk appears in cartons magically, like a ton of bricks.

One thing you can absolutely count on is that everyone will look to the government to “do something.” Americans really do think governments control the way the world works. Another certainty is that the U.S. government will “step in” massively, because everyone will want them to, and the politicians themselves believe they should. This will greatly aggravate the crisis and make it last much longer than necessary.

Then It Gets Serious

But that’s just over the short run. The long run is much more serious because the next chapter of the Greater Depression has every chance of radically, and at least semi-permanently, overturning the basic character of American life. Ice turned to water—suddenly and unexpectedly—in Russia in 1918, Germany in 1933, China in 1949, Vietnam in 1954, Cambodia in 1975, and Rwanda in 1995. Those are just the first examples that come to mind. There are scores more.

The economic events I’ve outlined are going to mean serious hardship and unpleasantness for many people. But that doesn't concern me nearly as much as the social and political reaction.

*  *  *

Doug says we're on the edge of a genuine precipice. The economy is crumbling… and there's a good chance things will only get worse. This is exactly why Doug and his team put together a time-sensitive video explaining how it could all go down. A financial shock far greater than 2008 could strike America during Trump's first 100 days in office. It could either wipe out a big part of your savings... or be the fortune-building opportunity of a lifetime. Click here to watch it now.

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buckstopshere's picture

Apparently, it is not enough to keep 500,000 angry lesbians from wasting several hundred dollars each on a pro-baby killing march.

johngaltfla's picture

No, but Trump has the Border Patrol at work already and this is just freaking awesome:

Border Patrol stops Anti-Trump Trolls from Crossing Canadian Border
El Vaquero's picture

Sorry Doug, but the places that are going to be the least affected by a dollar blow-up and the ensuing financial chaos are going to be third world shitholes that receive very little aid from the rest of the world.  Where are you going to run to, if our globalized economy blows up?

 

As for the US being much less rural than it used to, some of us are learning how to do agriculture with minimal industrial inputs.  Even if we keep our industrial society, it is the future of agriculture. 

 

My corn patch produced at a rate of 90bu/acre, which is low.  Until you consider that I was intentionally abusive, and haven't fully amended the soil, so that I could separate the weak from the strong in what is a genetically diverse population.  This year, I won't intentionally plant things too close together like I did last year, but I am going to wait until a good chunk of the plants are showing water stress before watering.  By 2018, I should be able to get 150 bu/acre, and without one single gram of NPK fertilizer.  I'm increasing biodiversity every year, and diversity within species.  If it works, it stays and I save sseed.  If it doesn't, it dies.  I'm going to be incorporating winter cover crops that have multiple species, and the residue will be a mulch in the spring that adds organic matter to the soil.  This year, or the next, I'll be adding muscovy ducks to the mix.  Once I have a system down that works very well for me, I will scale it up.  I will also teach people how to apply it on a small scale. 

 

I'm relying more and more on bio-mimicry.  How would nature repair and maintain itself without human intervention?  That's what I want to copy.  When this philosophy is successfully applied to large enough farms, watersheds improve, water quality improves and the local climate is actually changed.  The soil on modern farms is dead, and we need to change that.  It starts with good soils, and good soils start with biodiversity and paying attention to how nature takes care of business when we're not interfering. 

Billy the Poet's picture

Think I'll try this:

 

Rebellion (Cycle 0):  115 days.  This is a new Open Pollinated variety synthesized by crossing together classic inbreds and some Open Pollinated lines from the central corn belt and beyond. Its heritage includes lines descended from Reid's Yellow Dent, Lancaster, Minnesota 13, Pride of Saline, Cateto, flints from Argentina, Iowa Stiff Stalk Synthetic, Iodent, and more. It carries the Ga1s allele from popcorn and should be more resistant to outcrossing with other dent corn, but will readily cross with popcorn and will pollinate any corn. It should not be planted near any popcorn fields. The development of this variety was carried out by Frank Kutka with support from the Organic Farmig Research Foundation and the assistance of university corn breeders. Management of this trait will be very important for seed savers and everyone is invited to learn more about the trait via this video Breeding "Organic Ready" Corn with Gametophytic Incompatability on YouTube. Frank sent us this variety to help perpetuate it this year. I must say I was completely impressed with its vigor, yield and standability. I planted it on June 4, it tasseled from August 1 to 3, and was ready to harvest by late September. Every stalk had 2 full sized ears, one stalk even had 6 ears, 3 good and 3 half sized. This is a perfect corn for the person wanting good yields and performance of a modern development. Plants averaged 8 to 9 feet tall. Deep red cob with rich golden kernels. To help further Frank's important work, we will be sending a portion of the sales back to Frank to support his projects. 2 oz. Pkt. $3.00; 1 lb. $20.00; 5 lbs. $75.00; 10 lbs. $100.00 Certified Organic Seed

 

https://www.sandhillpreservation.com/catalog/corn.html

Arnold's picture

Keep us up to date,Billy.

I'll be down to trade.

new game's picture

sustainable anything is good, but we have a problem. 8 billion soon to be problems.

we are hanging on by threads. when the thread count drops to unsustainable, no system will work.

so, suffice to say protecting these gardens will surely put the farmer in perils way.

think like a wolf, if it gets as bad as casey talks. packs roaming to kill and survive.

just observing nature and survival mechanisms my entire life. denial of top of food chain is sure to put one as a sitting duck.

movement = death. think about it...

jmack's picture

chick quoted in the article was named sasha dyck....   has to be a made up name.

johngaltfla's picture

I think anything to do with "dyck" in Canuckistan is related to the Trudeau family.

GGuy's picture

I have cannuckistani ancestry, and also have a BIG DYCK

boattrash's picture

+1000 Can't quit laughing! I need to make it my screen saver.

SoDamnMad's picture

Maybe if she gets a better running start she can take down that metal support. Doya think?

erkme73's picture

I have a horrible chest cold.  Anything that makes me chuckle brings on a coughing fit that lasts about a minute - usually ending in puke on the floor.   I didn't care this time.  I must have watch that repeat 20 times - laughing/caughing harder each time until I nearly passed out.  

I hope that door frame is ok.

boattrash's picture

I hope you get to feeling better. I had one of those recently myself. It sucked.

cmdr.paco's picture

I really do hope you do fucking die from this chest cold - and it would be good if your fucking momma gets the same treatment as the woman in the video - it would be further good if she splits her bloody skull in two and fucking dies as well - asshole - would love to cut your stupid head off and piss in your neck

erkme73's picture

Damnit... you just made me laugh again.  Please tell me, how do you really feel?

cmdr.paco's picture

pretty good - just imagined lining your skull with gold and drinking wine from it :-)

And how do you feel about that?

SoDamnMad's picture

cmdr.paco     5 whole weeks   Wow  So how many decades were you in school learning to read and write?

Allen_H's picture

His school was behind the trailer park.

Arnold's picture

Fonestar Skool of Thread Jacking.

Richard Head's picture

You need a timeout in your safe space. There are none in Fight Club.

cmdr.paco's picture

you are funny and clever - I'm not - just know how to exterminate vermin - wanna meet? ;-)

boattrash's picture

It's too far to travel, we all saw you in DC Women's March today. But you looked good in your "Pink Pussy Hat".

cmdr.paco's picture

Humm - clever! Now I can't use my usual head chopping vulgar language - what can I do??? Well, I'll just try it again - fuck you asshole - you are stupid fuck without a brain and you're wasting our oxygen. You really need a killin' you waste of space - do us all a favor and just die screaming otherwise I'll find you, flay you and make a nice lampshade of your stinkin skin

GGuy's picture

^^^Hasbra masterDebater^^^^

BabaLooey's picture

Fucking priceless! Thanks XLS!

Wulfkind's picture

Day 2 of the Reign of Lord High Maximus Orange Julius ( May His Name Be Praised Forever )

 

1:  The Federal Reserve still exists.

2:  The Swamp is not drained.

3:  The NSA / CIA cabal still exists.

4:  Hillary is not in jail.

5:  The Goldmanite / DOD cabal still rule the Government

6:  The Wall is not built.

7:  Obamacare still exists.

8:  And as of 10:00 pm tonight we are $ 19,962,724,934,383 in debt.  Our total unfunded liabilites is $ 104,868,702,562,427.  163,204,937 Americans are on benefits.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

 

And America is NOT great again.

Vlad the Inhaler's picture

Geez man today is Saturday and last night was the party.

Billy the Poet's picture

9. Unrealistic expectations still not met.

Mike in GA's picture

Wow.  You finally agree that Obama was the Shit Midas.  We've been trying to tell you that for eight long years.

DingleBarryObummer's picture

You surpassed MDB as my favorite ZH'er

Vadogga66's picture

Never ever. And it will not depend on this guy with a taste of the bizarre, called Trump. I am not member of your country but an American anti-establishment guy named FZ wanted to run for presidency also. This was 25 years ago. The died to soon and he said: politics is the entertainment department of the industrial-military complex. Lol ????-Trump is not even a Clown ????

Ace006's picture

How right you are. Not even one full day on the job and NONE of that is fixed. Trump is a fraud and a failure.

Deplorable's picture

Building a financial bomb shelter and getting ready to cut and run.

Jethro's picture

Ahhh, these articles.  Just where in the hell would I relocate to?  And more importantly...why?  I would rather fight for my homeland.  I will not ever be a refugee, and be somebody else's burden (even though I have several useful skillsets). 

Latitude25's picture

Yeah.  I just came back from Bolivia and the plane was loaded with people from Argentina who are entering on legal visas but planning to overstay and work.  Now why would they want to bail out of Casey's paradise?

Escrava Isaura's picture

The writer, Doug Casey, relocated to Argentina.

They relocate here because the image, meaning, illusion that the US presents, projects to the world. 

 

 

 

 

Twee Surgeon's picture

Keep him, he'll fit right in, until the real revolution comes to Argie-bargie. Then he will be jumping on a jet to write more crap, elsewhere.

You deserve each other. You can chit chat all night at the coffee house about the worldly things and your ideas of injustice, then one night he gets on a plane because he got a phone call and you didn't.

Lore's picture

Sorry, Casey Research, but somebody needs to call you on this: 

"In Canada, inflation ignited after their currency, the Loonie, crashed 25%. Now, prices for basic groceries are running wild: a single cucumber goes for $3, eggs $8, you’ll pay $15 for Frosted Flakes, and upwards of $17 bucks for a gallon of milk."

HUH?  I just paid $.79 for a cucumber, $2.49 for a big head of cauliflower, $2.29 for a dozen eggs, $2.50 for a large box of Quaker Harvest Crunch (sale), and $3.99 for 4 litres (1 gal) milk. 

One of my favorite old quotes from Doug Casey is more or less as follows: "There's enough trouble in the world without having to make stuff up."

Bay of Pigs's picture

Casey is entertaining but not very accurate or ethical either. I should know, I subscribed to his shitty newsletter for years.

opport.knocks's picture

True, the only place you pay those high prices in Canada is in the far north where everything is flown in by small plane.

Jethro's picture

Seems fairly comparable pricing to the center of the US. 

cmdr.paco's picture

Unfortunately this is the style recently on ZH - make stuff up and claim apocalypse is comming - unfortunately apocalypse IS comming but not from the directions the propagande is letting us believe ....

Stroke's picture

Doug Casey ( along with Simon Soverign man ) probably are cashed up with little family, and are prone to carpetbagging

Me?...I'm stayin'...as Oshithead once said I'll "cling to my guns, and God"

JamesBond's picture

Learn to make moonshine, beer, and wine and you will always have an income.

 

jb

db51's picture

Quick Motherfuckers...RUN...run from your houses in rural America and take flight to safety near a big city, you know, where all the SJW fuckers and their minions reside...there will be safe spaces, safety pins, fucking teddy bear and Playdough...Dear God...do it now...while you still have a chance   100 days isn't long to secure your future in a coastal city near high population density areas...you'll be safe there....instead of hunkering down with your food storage, ammo, guns and Bibles....and if you're fortunate enough to have some real coin saved up....head to Germany where you can shelter in place with a gang of Musloid refugees.    Ok...gotta go boys...time's wasting.