French Bond Risk Spikes To 3-Year High After Radical Left Cheers Hamon's Win In Socialist Primary

Tyler Durden's picture

The final slate of candidates for French national elections in April-May is nearly complete, and judging by French government bond risk spiking, the decision to choose radical left wing Benoit Hamon to represent the French Socialists has investors worried about the fiscal future of the country.

 

As MishTalk.com's Michael Shedlock notes, The radical Left is cheering.
 

hamon-wins

Partial results from about 60 per cent of the polling stations showed that Mr Hamon, a former education minister, attracted 59 per cent of the vote in the primary run-off, against Manuel Valls, the former prime minister, who secured 41 per cent of the vote. More than 1m voters turned out for the final round of the primary.

Mr Hamon’s win marks a fierce rejection of the business-friendly policies implemented by President François Hollande. It reveals a desire among Socialist party sympathisers to return to core leftwing policies after Mr Hollande’s unpopular term.

Radicals Delirious With Joy

It’s quite a hoot if not outright insane to label Hollande’s policies “business-friendly”.

Yet, compared to Hamon, nearly anyone would look business-friendly.

Benoît Hamon’s Platform

Benoît Hamon is a 49-year-old former education minister. Here is his platform.

  1. Universal basic income.
  2. Tax on robots.
  3. Progressive taxation of wealth.
  4. Reduction of tax loopholes.
  5. 32-hour working week.
  6. Legalization of marijuana.
  7. National conference on “environmental democracy”.
  8. 50% renewable energy by 2025.
  9. Differentiated VAT for the “most virtuous products”.
  10. Ban on pesticides.
  11. Better repayments for dental care.
  12. A “Sixth Republic”.
  13. Transformation of the Senate into “college of territories”.
  14. The right of foreigners to vote in local elections.
  15. “Humanitarian visa”  and redo of France a land of asylum.
  16. “Vote blanc”.  Hamon supports a provision that takes into account a vote for “none of the above”.
  17. Media antitrust law.
  18. Labor law repeal to provide additional protection to employees.
  19. Help facilitate the takeover of SCOP companies by employees.
  20. Recognize burn-out as an occupational disease.

The above 20 points translated from Benoît Hamon, favorite of the primary: his very left program.

Amazing Twitter Performance

A couple months ago was unknown. A week ago he won Hamon 35% of the vote in a seven-way rate. Today Hamon trounced Valls in a two-way match, winning the primary.

How did he get there? The new-fashioned way. Hamon has a huge following on social media including Twitter.

5-6 Way Race

french-candidates

Source: French Presidential Election 2017

It has not yet been confirmed if the Democratic Movement  (Mouvement démocrate) will contest this presidential election. Bayrou has not yet decided.

Slate of Candidates

french-election-2017-01-29

Source: French Election Polls

With only 5% of the vote, one can rule out Bayrou if he does run. But until that decision, there is a possibility Bayrou steps out and backs one of the other candidates.

LFI (La France Insoumise) Unsubmissive France candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon is a current MEP and former former co-president of the Left Party. He will splinter the Left if he stays in.

Should Mélenchon decide to step aside and support Hamon, extreme possibilities such as Hamon vs Le Pen are not out of the question.

I am not suggesting this is likely, but little would surprise me at this point.

Fillon Stumbles

Meanwhile, it’s important to note that former poll leader Fillon has slipped. He seriously damaged his credibility in a payment scandal involving his wife.

For details, please see Prosecutor Investigates Leading French Candidate Fillon for Paying his Wife €500,000 from MP Funds.

If prosecuted, Fillon threatened to step down.

Fillon’s Radical New Plan

In an effort to get his campaign on track, François Fillon Outlines Radical Economic Plan.

Speaking in front of more than 13,000 supporters in Paris, the Republican party nominee and election frontrunner rejected claims surrounding his wife, Penelope Fillon.

 

Mr Fillon sought on Sunday to divert attention back to his programme, laying out the most business-friendly, free-market economic platform in the presidential contest.

 

His proposals include scrapping the limit on weekly working hours, extending retirement age, slashing employment benefits and cutting 500,000 civil service jobs to fund tax breaks for companies — sticking largely to the radical platform that helped him win his party’s nomination in November.

Can Le Pen Win?

Cutting corporate taxes, slashing benefits, and firing 500,000 workers will not exactly please the Left.

My French readers suggest Fillon would trounce Le Pen. Color me extremely skeptical of that death announcement.

On many issues, Le Pen is far to the left of Fillon. And what about the Right? Would they prefer Hamon or Le Pen should that be the match-up?

The radicalization of Hamon and Fillon helps le Pen. Her chances are far better than most think.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
wildbad's picture

Socialist win = deck chair rearrangement.

GO le Pen!!!

MarketAnarchist's picture

This guys platform would destroy France as a nation in 5 years.  It's like George Soros wrote it himself.

jus_lite_reading's picture

Exactly. But of course, ignorance is bliss.

wmbz's picture

The French are so fucked up!

But that is nothing new. Enjoy all the "free" shit, it will last forever.

BabaLooey's picture

Additions are needed here

Benoît Hamon is a 49-year-old former education minister. Here is his platform.

  1. Universal basic income - PAID FOR BY WHOM? LOL
  2. Tax on robots. - PAID FOR BY WHOM? LMAO
  3. Progressive taxation of wealth. - WATCH THE WEALTHY LEAVE - SUPER IDEA
  4. Reduction of tax loopholes. - SEE ABOVE
  5. 32-hour working week. - THE FRENCH ACTUALLY WORK?
  6. Legalization of marijuana. - OH THAT'S WHERE HE GETS THE PAYMENTS
  7. National conference on “environmental democracy”. WTF IS THAT? LEO DICRAPRIO MOVE TO FRANCE????
  8. 50% renewable energy by 2025. - LOL
  9. Differentiated VAT for the “most virtuous products”. DILDOS, STRAP-ONS, AND PORN, not included.
  10. Ban on pesticides. - NOW THAT THE MUZZIES ARE THERE - BAD IDEA
  11. Better repayments for dental care. - FOLLOWING THE BRITS
  12. A “Sixth Republic”. - NEVER MIND THE FIRST FIVE DIDN'T WORK
  13. Transformation of the Senate into “college of territories”. "COLLAGE" OF DUMB
  14. The right of foreigners to vote in local elections. - ALLAH AKBAR TO THAT DUMBASS
  15. “Humanitarian visa”  and redo of France a land of asylum. - A.K.A. WE ARE FUCKED
  16. “Vote blanc”.  Hamon supports a provision that takes into account a vote for “none of the above”. - HAPPILY COINED - THE "HOLLANDE" PROVISION
  17. Media antitrust law. - OH THAT WILL GO OVER WELL TO THE BRAINWASHED
  18. Labor law repeal to provide additional protection to employees. - AS OPPOSED TO MORE JOBS
  19. Help facilitate the takeover of SCOP companies by employees. - YOU DIDN'T BUILD THAT
  20. Recognize burn-out as an occupational disease. - THE SNOWFLAKE BILL

 

 

FRANCE IS FUCKED WITH THIS KIND OF SHIT.

Stuck on Zero's picture

Actually, Vote Blanc or none-of-the-above I really like. We need that.

jus_lite_reading's picture

Agreed, and #6, #10 are good ideas but too bad are negated by the others!

Canary Paint's picture

I am not sure how the 35-hour work week applies in reality. It probably is only observed in the public sector and in unionized workplaces. Ask any French person in the private sector. It is really only the older employees in non-critical positions that get a 35-hour week.

Anecdotally... In my recent internship in France in an 800-person company, I never worked less than 40 hours, as much as 50-60 once or twice a month, and the bosses did the same. From what I saw, the bosses were probably working more.

Of course, working a lot is not innately valued here. The point of work here is to have money for meat, cheese and wine at your family BBQs and to go on vacation. I am not entirely opposed to this philosophy.

 

Rodders75's picture

You're right to highlight this mad shit, of course. 

But I've been coming France for the last 25 years, and way back when everyone said it can't carry on, France is screwed etc etc, especially in 1995 when there was a massive general strike over retirement reform. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_strikes_in_France

But somehow it bumbles along. Don't know how, but it does. 

Treason Season's picture

Psst, I'll give you a hint. GERMAN EUROS!

Treason Season's picture

From Celine's autobiography quoting his mother,

"Thank God for the rich or none of us would have any money!"

Canary Paint's picture

It is different over here for sure. A big Le Pen surprise is just as possible as any of the globalist upsets that have occurred recently, but it would be different than the Trump movement.

For one thing, many trade protections that Trump is exploring already exist over here. A similarity is a renewal of interest in the concept of national sovereignty and what it should mean. Another similarity is in trying to understand what government regulations hamstring developing competitive businesses.

One thing you can be sure of is that Le Pen won't change the healthcare system except maybe to explore fraudulent uses of the system. Even the right here don't think that you should pick up a lifetime of debt because you needed back surgery or that doctors should become oxycontin salesmen. If that is what you mean by free shit, then yeah... I hope it lasts forever.

HermanVanCuckold's picture

France does a nice job with the food and keeping very pretty landscape. It's a beautiful country.

Taxes are way too high though, and they are supporting too many people who don't work. You'd almost be better sitting on your ass than getting a low paying job. And too much red tape and taxes to start a smal business. A lot of young people are leaving to try their chances elsewhere. Also too many immigrants who won't assimilation.

I'm not optimistic.

gatorengineer's picture

Globalism fucked up Brexit, Globalism Fucked up with Hillary, are they stupid enough to loose a third time?

quasi_verbatim's picture

Le Pen is the female de Gaulle. She will win.

The males running against her are, like 'Ollande, just discredited Frogs.

 

gespiri's picture

Another socialist who will just bend over while grabbing his ankles for more refugees to do their thing.

KimAsa's picture

21. Designate rape of local French women as a normal and legal sexual outlet and a human right for Islamic male refugees respressed and persecuted by the brutal Assad regime in Syria.

NEOSERF's picture

I will be moving to France if he wins...

Volaille de Bresse's picture

"I will be moving to France if he wins..."

 

So will 200 Mil Africans. Hamon's idea is if you're in France you can enlist for that basic income;

 

The guy's a complete lunatic... God help us with this one. Maybe Trump can ask the CIA to "remove" this turd before he causes too much harm?

Maestro Maestro's picture

Fuck the French.

Like all Europeans, you are not worth a gram of the stuff that comes out of my rear end.

Morons.

Idiots.

ALL career politicians work for the bankers. Including this particular shithead.

EU=ISIS