French Political Scandal Fallout: Fillon Would Be Eliminated In First Round By Macron

Tyler Durden's picture

As the political scandal gripping (former) French presidential frontrunner Francois Fillon grows, his public support is tumbling and according to a new opinion poll released on Wednesday, the conservative presidential candidate would no longer even make the second round of this spring's presidential election in France, raising the pressure on him as a scandal over his wife and children's publicly funded "fae work" engulfed his campaign.

The poll by Elabe showed rising support for far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen, but notably it showed centrist Emmanuel Macron most likely to win the presidency - snatching the position of favorite that Fillon held until last week - in the presidential runoff round.

Former minister Emmanuel Macron, head of the political movement En Marche!

The poll's findings summarized:

  • Marine Le Pen leads the first round voting intentions with 27% support, up 3 points.
  • Emmanuel Macron on 23%, unchanged
  • Francois Fillon has slipped to 20%, down 6 points.
  • Macron beats Le Pen 65%-35% in 2nd round
  • Fillon beats Le Pen 59%-41% in 2nd round

Elabe predicted Macron would beat Le Pen in the second round with 65 percent of the vote. Should Fillon make the second round, he too would beat Le Pen, but by a lower margin, at 59 percent, Elabe said. The poll, published on Wednesday and covering among about 1,000 people, is the second one to be conducted since the scandal engulfed Fillon's campaign. Then again, as the past year has shown, when it comes to non-traditional candidates or outcomes, polls are notoriously wrong, so it is possible that Le Pen's chances in the second round are underestimated.

The poll by Elabe for Les Echos newspaper was conducted on Jan. 30 and 31, a few days after a newspaper report that said Fillon's wife was paid taxpayers' money for fake work. While Fillon has denied accusations of graft, and said repeatedly the work was genuine, an inquiry has been opened and the couple have been interviewed by police. Fillon, chosen in November by a party primary, said he will stand down if he is put under formal investigation. He is expected to meet members of his party on Wednesday as some of them reportedly consider a campaign without him. It was unclear how a new candidate could emerge with less than three months to go before the election.

That said, as WikiLeaks pointed out this morning, the description of the unexpected presidential frontrunner - a former Rothschild M&A banker - in Hillary Clinton's email "is at odds with campaign image."

As we reported yesterday, on Tuesday, French police searched Fillon's office in parliament and party leaders began to consider a "Plan B" without him.

The Fillon scandal has heightened investor uncertainty about the outcome of the presidential election, with players nervous about the possibility that the anti-euro, anti-EU Le Pen could win power and pursue a French exit from the bloc.

Meanwhile, uncertainy about the outcome of the election has spread to French assets, with the gap between French and German government borrowing costs soaring to 3 year highs.


Should Fillon drop out, which now seems increasingly likely, expect further French asset turmoil as the Conservatives scramble to unveil a replacement candidate with less than three months until the first round of the presidential election.

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VinceFostersGhost's picture



I'm with Le Pen.


She doesn't fall down or's like a plus.


Also....I don't think she's ever been involved in cattle futures.

Haus-Targaryen's picture

Crazy shit.  

I have the feeling the voting system is materially different in France than it is in the UK or US with more or less just biarny choices.  

The only thing that could put MLP over the line:

- Eurozone issues and a new bailout of some bank or nation the French Financial Ministry will have to flip a large bill for; or

- Muzzies being muzzies

Time will tell.  Good luck MlP 

VinceFostersGhost's picture



Your food comes from.........wait for

techpriest's picture

Re: farmers and CO2 emissions, a great deal of it comes from soil practices. The American Chemical Society published a study showing that soil-enriching practices like greater use of cover crops, etc. would cancel out ALL CO2 emissions.

This is also gives you an idea of the sense of scale of farming, but also of other practices. There is no need to force humanity back into 17th century lifestyles to ease the fears of university leftists.

jus_lite_reading's picture

People of France, please SAVE your great and beautiful country! This is your last chance! Vote LePen! You are so proud of your great heritage and fight to keep your language then pick the only one who actually cares about FRANCE!

NoDebt's picture

"but notably it showed centrist Emmanuel Macron most likely to win the presidency"

I'm not sure it's the age where "centrists" are winning elections any more.  LePen wins in a squeaker, everyone accuses her of being in bed with the Russians, she puts a clamp on the rampant "immigrant" inflows and the Left once again loses it's mind.

If she gets in I might need to reconsider my almost universal distain for the French.

But I'm still never going to be a soccer fan.    <------ that comment will get me 10 down-votes, minimum

bamawatson's picture

soccer fans have leather balls

Haus-Targaryen's picture

The French have earned their reputation through many centuries of hard work.  MlP won't change that at all. 

What she will change is the fight to preserve what what that reputation roots.  

Everyone in Europe wants to hate the French because they are still horribly bitter about not being a world power anymore.  No one in Europe wants to hate the French because their country became a Caliphate.  This is hopefully what MLP changes. The future as she is unable to change the past. 

Ghordius's picture

"Everyone in Europe wants to hate the French..."

call on that. speaking from which perspective? a German one? an Italian one? a Spanish one? which?

"No one in Europe wants to hate the French because their country became a Caliphate..."

ah, I see you just retracted and qualified... in the same comment. not bad. angling for a job in politics?

falak pema's picture

A nation that makes 300 types of cheeses and two types of politicians is a paradox for some, an enigma for others and an oxymore for the more refined thinkers. 

An oxymore, when first consul became Emperor as "you cannot be Brutus and Tarquin at the same time!"... Something which De Gaulle conveniently forgot in 1958 by becoming Monarch and President under the 5th Republic.

But this is an old tradition in France, as during the Crusades they made a category of christian-- the best and the brightest amongst its sons-- into soldier-monks ! Which to any genuine christian is an oxymore... How could Jesus's followers as monks be Caesar's legions as well, to save the religion in expansionist, colonial wars worthy of Caesar ? So they took Constantinople to make that oxymore even more indelible!

Thats France of olden times that is still there like those paleoconservatives on the other side of the pond!

But on a more prosaic tone, remembering that "an army and a nation marches on its stomach"...

Imagine France making 300 types of political groups and 2 types of cheeses and it would be in permanent revolution, not 'cos there are too many politicos but 'cos there are not enuff types of cheeses! 


Publicus_Reanimated's picture

Haha France of olden times.  First use of Crusaders against other Christians.  Incurred so much debt to the Templars the King had to suppress the order to avoid repayment.

Vive les Merovingiens!  A bas les Carolingiens!

Socratic Dog's picture

The First Crusade was against those evil eastern Christians.  Not Muzzies. Muzzies were the excuse.   From memory.

Publicus_Reanimated's picture

I'll give you that one.  Byzantium was a target of opportunity with much plunder.  Albigensian Crusade was designed that way from the start.

Publicus_Reanimated's picture

Everyone in Europe wants to hate the French because:

1. They give Socialism a bad name

2. They caved to the Boche twice -- bonus hate points for Vichy and collaborators

3. They are a nuclear power

4. They are ingrates

5. They tried harder than anybody else to hang on to their African colonies

6. Do I need to continue?

Ghordius's picture

as a Centrist myself I would agree with you (though I would not call Macron a centrist, more of a center-left candidate) that centrist candidates aren't the likely winners, for a while

actually, Fillon is more of a "Best Friend of Putin (BFP)" then Le Pen (and a liberal(TM)-conservative, to boot), so both Putin and I still hope that Fillon makes it

reconsider your universal disdain for the French? hardly believable, that. the French will always be the one culture that grates nerves of all English-speakers worldwide. example:

just note that French way of electing a President-(nearly-a-king). if you were honest (speaking to all American Cousins) you would admit that it is way better then yours. after all, this is the Fifth French Republic, while you are still using your version 1.28 from the 18th Century

but the US doing something in the French way? nah. from the Statue of Liberty to French kisses, the trend has become Homer Simpson's monkey joke and the Congress Cafeteria's Freedom Fries

football comments? downvotes? nah, try to use an avatar like mine, and you'll see

CNONC's picture

The French system, which tends to marginalize the political extremes, is more suitable for the selection of an almost sovereign executive, like the French presidency.  The American system depends on the supremacy of the Legislative branch to moderate political power.  Our problems come from the willingness of the Congress to WILLFULLY transfer its authority to the Executive branch agencies through "enabling legislation" which gives executive branch agencies the authority to implement legislative goals by writing regulations which have the force of law.  The end result is a presidency with an ever increasing amount of power, and a Congress which is increasingly irrelevant.  Yet our system remains designed to isolate the Executive from short term political passions.

The fix, however, is not to alter the fundamental design of our government, which tends to "undefine," for a time, the established legal relationships between the three branches.  The fix is for the voters to insist on a return to legislative supremacy.  The Trump administration, with its lack of allies in the Legislative branch, will have to rely, even more than Obama, and the second term of G.W. Bush, on executive orders and regulatory actions to achieve its agenda.   This is a messy and disruptive way to do business. (see latest immigration order)  In direct consequence to this, I suspect the House elections in 2018 to be vigorously contested, and to reveal the outlines of the new fundamental positions of the two parties.  A 2018 Democrat may not look much like a 2016 Democrat, (see Tulsi Gabbard), and a Republican may not look much like a Republican. 

Unlike many on this board, I have some faith in the intellegence of my fellow citizens.  I talk to people from all walks of life, and given the opportunity to discuss events in a forum that allows for more than soundbites, their understanding of the issues is revealed to be failrly in depth.  But, only crisis is sufficient to make them change their behavior.  "And, accordingly, all experience hath shown that mankind is more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed."

BrownCoat's picture

" Our problems come from the willingness of the Congress to WILLFULLY transfer its authority to the Executive branch agencies through "enabling legislation" which gives executive branch agencies the authority to implement legislative goals by writing regulations which have the force of law."


"I have some faith in the intellegence of my fellow citizens."

I have faith too... just not very much! LOL  Think of all the Hillary voters. That is a huge amount of deluded people whose perspective is completely incongruent with the huge number of people holding a very different perspective.

Publicus_Reanimated's picture

I would not be so certain about that moderating influence on the President.  Note how little we have heard from Congress on the Trump agenda -- they have their fingers in the wind because, as we all know, a Congressperson's number one priority is to get reelected.  Remember Richard Lugar?  You betcha they all do. 

Because the Dems are united in their opposition, it will force the GOP to circle the wagons.  The optics of "defection" to the dark side will resonate with voters in every district and state.

My crystal ball is cloudy largely due to Congress's failure to declare its stance.  All will be revealed.  As a betting man, I bet Trump will have more influence on the GOP Congress than vice versa.  I'm waiting for the declarative "You are with us or against us" tweet.

Almost Solvent's picture

French toast is far and away the best thing to come from France since neon tube lighting. 

Archduke's picture

disdain for the english language as well, apparently.

Rodders75's picture

That's a joke, right?

Sandmann's picture

It all depends WHO votes. BreXit increased turnout way beyond elections.....Trump got people to vote who didn't usually vote

destiny's picture

Le pen will never make it...the dynasty has been diabolized over the decades..

Fillon is a total shame and is kaput ! 

Macron has ALSO used public funds for his campaign....


There is NO PILOT in the craft !  

SoDamnMad's picture

I've checked to see how many suspicious deaths were associated with Le Pen and so far my search has come up ...


land_of_the_few's picture

Plus Le Pen's name doesn't sound like a kind of synthetic fiber unlike Macron and Fillon ;)

Volaille de Bresse's picture

Macron = Justin Trudeau =  a gay friendly Soros puppet.



VinceFostersGhost's picture



a gay friendly Soros puppet


.....not that there's anything wrong that.

Bill of Rights's picture
Iran to dump the US dollar in response to Trump's travel ban


Nothing to see here

indygo55's picture

Now if they started to sell oil in something other than the dollar,,,, Oh wait!! Never mind.


analyst123's picture

i think lesson from last year was that poll results cant be trusted... so if anything, the poll is really telling us that Francois Fillon will be the next french president

General Titus's picture

As has happened to the National Front before and in the US, whenever a real "populist" candidate comes along that is against their evil Kalergi Plan to destroy Western Civilization, the fake right joins with the fake left against the people's candidate.

Wake up from the Hegelian Dialectics

Ghordius's picture

aren't you using here in this very comment... Hegelian Dialectics?

in fact, isn't US politics all about The Great Struggle Between This and That... only?

this article is about French presidential elections where one out of three candidates wins

American politics is always the choice between two. isn't that the purest Hegelian Dialectics?

techpriest's picture

Perhaps. But I've understood it more as the logical conclusion of a "first past the post" electoral system. When the winner takes all, minority parties get zero representation, so there is a strong incentive to put your party inside of a larger party, so as to get representation that way.

The result: a small number of parties with a wide diversity of sub-parties inside of them.

Ghordius's picture

absolutely. but FPTP was invented by the Romans. who elected the first two as Consuls, with a veto on each other. the system broke later down to pure FPTP, but in the early times, it was two out of three main factions. and lesser factions could still put some lower magistrates on their seats

later, the Mother of Parliaments re-discovered the system, in the so called Commons

but it was... quote "Two Knights from each Common" unquote, in their early times

FPTP is very much liked... by entrenched political parties that don't want to die, ever

not that I think most that grew up in such a system realize that, otherwise we would be talking about funny US district shapes, here

Sandmann's picture

Mitterand changed the electoral system depending on which would let him win in 1980s

falak pema's picture

But he did not change the constitution of the 5th republic of God-President...which he had promised to do!

And 35 years later we still have a god-president who would make the Duck go red with envy!

"What? No balance of Power, no Congress to annul my decrees? 

"Man, I wanna be like the French President !

"Bannon, do something!" 

Sandmann's picture

Fifth Republic was created by De Gaulle for de Gaulle and cemented in place with direct election in 1962. It is time for a 6th Republic in FRance

Ghordius's picture

Sandmann, that's where I "love" your attitude

you are ready to call for a Sixth French Republic, and lots of other things... elsewhere

but a Second American Republic? or something new for the United Kingdom?

sure not, eh? ;-)

Archduke's picture

France definitely does not have a god-president complex.
There is strong prime-minister post who heads operations.

Many cabinets have had "co-habitation" minority governments, where the PM is not from the ruling from an allied kingmaker faction.

flapdoodle's picture

You are not correct - perhaps in the US it is usually two candidates, but in 1992 for example the third party candidate Ross Perot was decisive in giving Bill Clinton the US Presidency. Theodore Roosevelt's Bull Moose party in 1912 did the same in getting Woodrow WIlson elected, a black day in history indeed.

Ghordius's picture

I remember Ross Perot. but isn't a splendid example of a third candidate only spoiling the election for another? and so entrenching the "Only out of the two immortal megaparties"?

in the French system, there is no "spoiler effect". in the French system, political parties can die, and several did exactly that

HenryKissingerChurchill's picture

isn't that the purest Hegelian Dialectics?

ahem... did not you just declare yourself a few lines above as a "centrist" ???

conveniently avoiding the freedom-fascism axis?


General Titus's picture

They have multiple fake right & fake left parties in France & other countries.  Here in the US of A they ran a fake third party candidate, Ross Perot to split the Anti-NAFTA/WTO opposition, so that their golden boy CFR Globalist & Bush comrade Clinton could get in, remember that?  Hegelian Dialectics, fake rights vs fake lefts.  (plurals)

rondellio's picture

No, bc

1. Hegel's thought presupposes progress

2. The opposition between candidates is illusory

3.Even if there were a new synthesis it wld be impotent against the prevailing thesis of the Deep State...altho' the incredible DT might just change all of this.  

Publicus_Reanimated's picture

Disagree about the "three" in France this time.  There are two choices:  le Pen or NOT le Pen.  We have seen this before -- the other parties hold their noses and vote for the NOT populist candidate.  Round 1 is about who will be that NOT choice.

indygo55's picture

Sniviling career corrupt politician. Fuck 'em. 

scoutshonor's picture

Either of them would beat Le Pen in the second round, unless--

Neither of them do.  I have developed a healthy scepticism of polls this go round.  So many of these polls seem more like wishful thinking on the part of the PTB.