India Is Not The Next China

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Jayant Bhandari via Acting-Man.com,

Popular Narrative

India has been the world’s favorite country for the last three years. It is believed to have superseded China as the world’s fastest growing large economy. India is expected to grow at 7.5%. Compare that to the mere 6.3% growth that China has “fallen” to.

 

India’s quarterly annualized GDP growth rate since 2008, according to MOSPI (statistics ministry) – click to enlarge.

 

The IMF, the World Bank, and the international media have celebrated this event. Declining commodity prices and other problems in Russia, Brazil and South Africa have damaged the prospects of the BRICs (ex-India) and other emerging markets.

Commodity and currency markets have been very turbulent, and the Arab Spring has not only failed to keep up its pace, it has half-destroyed the Middle East, with fires raging in Syria, Turkey, Libya, etc. Migrant problems in Europe and the uncertain future of the US — as per the current narrative — leave India as the prime candidate to prop up global economic growth.

It seems to be deeply emotionally satisfying to finally see the world’s largest democracy supersede the “communist dictatorship” of China. India’s GDP has also just surpassed that of the UK, its former colonial master. The world is looking toward India as a beacon for the future of humanity. Again, that seems to be the narrative.

 

A WSJ video report on India as the world’s fastest-growing economy

 

Is India the World’s Next Superpower?

Everything cited above is plain wrong and falsifiable by using primary school mathematics. It is little but rationalization for what seems to be emotionally gratifying.

China’s GDP is USD 11.4 trillion (2016; IMF). India’s GDP is USD 2.25 trillion (2016; IMF). These economies are in no way comparable. The Chinese economy is more than 5 times larger. China’s GDP per capita stands at USD 8,260 and that of India at USD 1,718. China’s population (1.37 billion) and the population of India (1.34 billion) are comparable — but China is five times richer on a per capita basis.

 

China’s GDP growth rate has declined from its previous torrid pace – but what does this really mean by comparison? – click to enlarge.

 

Based on these figures, India will add USD 129 in economic output on a per capita basis if it grows at a pace of 7.5%. Similarly, if China grows by 6.3%, its output will increase by USD 520 per capita.

Those who say that India is home to the world’s largest economic growth have not even done primary school math on the situation. India actually needs to grow at more than 30% to outpace China in absolute terms per capita.

It helps to play around with the numbers cited above to understand how erroneous expectations have been. If one assumes that India continues to grow at a rate of 7.5%, and China at a rate of 6.3% from here on out, it will take 127 years before India’s per capita growth will actually begin to exceed China’s.

The problem is that many people confuse “rate of growth” with actual “growth.” They blithely assume that a higher growth rate means greater growth. They assume that a decline in the growth rate is a decline in growth. Perhaps people simply see what they want to see as a result of their ideological preferences.

 

China and India, history of real GDP expansion since 1980

 

In the early 1980s, India was richer on a per capita basis than China — India’s population was much smaller than China’s, but its GDP was of similar size.

If one pores over statements released by international institutions and media reports published over the past 36 years, it was consistently claimed that while India would be slow in getting to this point, it would eventually outpace China.

Not only did this not happen, but as demonstrated above, by now it looks as though it will be virtually impossible for India to outpace China. One should pause to reflect on why so many have been so consistently wrong about India.

 

The Sacred Cow of Democracy

One of the major reasons why the West, its institutions and the upper and middle classes prefer India over China is that India follows the western religion of democracy. They refuse to see that democracy tends not to work in poor countries (it is debatable whether it worked in the West).

One could well say that by the time democracy was introduced in the West, particularly in its present form in which everyone has the right to vote, the West had already reached its intellectual peak.

 

A painting purporting to show the assembly of ancient Athens. The city-state became democratic around 500 BC – it was the first known experiment in democracy. However, only adult male Athenian citizens who had completed their military training had the right to vote. Slaves, freed slaves, children, women and foreigners residents were excluded.

 

The history of democracy’s achievements in the non-western world is particularly bad. Africa, the Middle East, South East Asia and most of South America are riddled with countries that embraced democracy and almost immediately took a turn for the worse. In fact, I cannot think of a single country in these regions that improved after adopting democracy. Nepal, East Timor, and PNG are vivid recent examples.

Non-western countries which have performed better in terms of economic growth and social indexes improved during time periods in which they were for all practical purposes not democratic. To name a few: Lee Kuan Yew’s Singapore, British and now Chinese Hong Kong, Park Chung-hee’s South Korea, Pinochet’s Chile, and Chiang’s Taiwan.

In India democracy never worked, but who need facts when emotions need to be satisfied? If Africa were a country, India would be worse off in terms of virtually every economic and social index on per capita basis. As a proportion of India’s population, the country’s people are among the world’s poorest, most diseased, wretched and malnourished.

48% of Indians don’t even have access to toilets. Similar percentages of India’s population live without electricity, water and other basic amenities. To put this number into perspective again: at a per capita GDP of USD 1,718, India is poorer than Sudan, the Republic of Congo, Laos, Papua New Guinea and many other countries not exactly known for their great wealth.

It is often claimed that India has the largest English speaking population outside the western world. This was true in the past, but it is likely no longer true. China has brought in a large number of native speakers from Canada, the UK and the US to teach English to its students. It seems very likely that there are now more English speakers in China than there are in India – and they speak better English.

 

Population growth and demographics of India incl. projection

 

India certainly appears to be in an advantageous position in terms of demographics. While China’s society is aging and the number of young people is declining, more than 50% of Indians are below the age of 29. Alas, this is likely to turn into a liability, as the vast majority of them are unskilled and incapable of participating in the modern economy.

There is a net increase of 12 million Indians joining the workforce every year, but India continues to exhibit job-less growth. While their expectations are increasing — for they all watch American TV — they lack wealth-generating capabilities. As a result, crime is on the rise.

India’s institutions are often highlighted as the reason for the country’s superiority over China or other non-democratic systems. The reality is that in the last 70 years, Indians have systematically destroyed the institutions left by the British. Today’s judiciary, legislature and executive are not comparable.

Today none of these institutions are run for the benefit of the country’s citizens. They operate for the glorification of the State, in which citizens are mere cogs. These institutions have mutated on account of India’s underlying tribalism totalitarian tendencies.

Unless one is a criminal, one doesn’t visit a police station in India. The tyranny of the police, up to and including killing innocent people in fake encounters, has a long history. Court cases can drag on for decades. Regulations and laws are mere pieces of paper, with decisions sold to the largest bidder.

It is virtually impossible to get anything done in India without a bribe. Worse, people must grovel and humiliate themselves in front of public servants to get what is rightfully theirs.

Readers will do themselves a service by challenging themselves to find out whether democracy really has any connection with improved governance, stronger institutions of liberty, or faster economic growth.

 

India’s Problems Have Deep Roots

India is an extremely irrational, superstitious, and tribal country. The concept of reason is mainly conspicuous by its absence in much of India. India was long associated with Britain and has imported western institutions, ways of living, technology, etc., over the last 200-300 years, but has failed to import the concept of reason.

The same could be said for Africa, the Middle East, rest of South Asia and most of South America. But we will stick with India here. Without the concept of reason, people can have no understanding of the rule of law, of fairness, or simply of what is right or wrong.

They can only think in terms of might is right, street-smartness and political connections. Such a society cannot have any understanding of the principles of the ten commandments, or have respect for the individual and liberty.

Assimilating the concept of reason hasn’t happened in the last 200-300 years. In Europe it took about 2,000 years after it was discovered by Greco-Roman philosophers. Could it take another millennium or more before India’s society will be able to assimilate the concept of reason?

In the last three decades, India’s economy has grown, but most of this growth can be attributed to significantly improved access to the western world and its technology through the new medium of internet and cheap telephony. The low-hanging fruit from this have been plucked and India is starting to show signs of stagnation.

While India grew economically, government grew at an even faster rate. People and corporations took on debt faster than they could repay it. They imported the lifestyle and a generous helping of consumerism from the West, mostly its entertainment aspects. Reason fell by the wayside.

All evidence indicates that Indians were actually disincentivized from developing critical thinking, creativity and reasoning skills. Why bother when one could become rich without them?

Indian manufacturing plants or offices, including those in the private sector are chaotic, wasteful and incapable of planning and following a system as a result. Labor costs appear cheap, but India’s chaos ensures low productivity.

Given a chance, Indian companies prefer to move their factories to China. Indian cities and villages are packed with Chinese good, even very basic ones. The way Indians drive mirrors how Indian manufacturing and service industries operate:

 

Indian motorists in action

 

What Will India’s Future be Like?

It shouldn’t be too difficult to abandon the idea that India will be the next China. India’s much-celebrated growth of 7.5% is too low to make any real impact on the world economy. But even this is under massive threat, once considers the country’s institutional and cultural problems.

As mentioned earlier, the low-hanging fruit from importing western technology have been plucked by now. India has failed to cultivate critical thinking and hence the ability to develop its own technology.

India has been a massive beneficiary of the fall in oil price, as oil is by far its biggest import. This was a one-off gain, a benefit for growth that will trail off again. Indian exports are already showing signs of strain and are falling, partly losing out to other countries which continue to improve their competitiveness, such as China and the Philippines.

 

Growth in Indian exports has turned negative in early 2015 – click to enlarge.

 

Members of India’s middle class have become remarkably arrogant, thinking that there must be something special about them that made them so much richer, but they were merely lucky beneficiaries of western technology. This arrogance has boosted nationalism, which is spreading like wildfire.

In a society lacking in rationality, nationalism is not perceived to be about human values but is a mere geographical, tribal concept. Hindutava (Hindu-nationalism) has been on the rise. The BJP, the party representing this ideology, has come to power two and half years ago, with Narendra Modi as the prime minister.

Under Modi’s reign, as the institutions which the British left continue to get destroyed, liberties are falling, taxes are going up without any improvements in public service, and the regulatory burden has increased significantly. The country is getting increasingly centralized as well, and brought under Modi’s command. He believes he has to do more of all these things to ensure India remains on a path to growth. This is a recipe for disaster.

On 8th November 2016, Modi announced a ban on banknotes affecting 86% of the monetary value of currency in circulation. This has been another example of his dictatorial policies, as the decision was not even discussed by his own cabinet. Even the central bank did not know about the ban until the very last moment.

Readers should reflect on the fact that Modi took a decision crippling the economy by robbing it of its life-blood, depriving people of the medium of exchange they needed for performing transactions, without worrying in the least about checks and balances.

 

Conclusion

It should be easy to see that India is not the next China. There is no point in holding out much hope for India. Rather, it is ever easier to conclude that it is on the way to becoming the next banana republic, similar to neighboring countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar or Nepal.

Intellectuals should engage in some self-reflection on why they have been consistently wrong about India. It is China that exhibits continued economic and social growth. China keeps coming out with innovative products. In China’s book shops one can find Chinese translations of many of the best foreign books. I’m worried that India could rapidly become a backwater by comparison.

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jm's picture

This post is at best deeply short-sighted.

xythras's picture
xythras (not verified) jm Feb 2, 2017 9:09 PM

Ukraine just learned you don't mess with Russia or her proxies. Stop begging for US help.

Putin says Ukraine seeking US Support after 6 Killed in Renewed Fighting

http://dailywesterner.com/news/2017-02-02/putin-says-ukraine-seeking-us-...

 

***

If the shitskins try anything from a globalist point of view, I have this theory that the Don will foment a war in their region, but a smart one: India Vs Pakistan/China.

US just selling arms and eating popcorn while scooping their markets

Free Spirit's picture

I think it will be even worse, but i agree that a quite likely start on WW3 is an attack by India on Pakistan and its nukes, Then there is a chain reaction of course with China supporting it´s ally. That will be a tough cookie to handle for Modi´s arrogant India. Even if they get lots of support from Trump´s USA. Sounds like USA has got to be involved in a major way in this case, Hmm...maybe not the smartest thing to do ?

Russia ?  I think Russia will support it´s allies Iran Pakistan and China. The saudis and their allies will of course fight Iran and Russia with the support of USA and NATO...which brings us to Ukraine...oh well I guess the world will hardly be livable once this one is over. And poor Ukraine will simply be gone ....as for the turks I can´t even guess at where they´ll be

NoDebt's picture

If by short-sighted you mean for the next 50-100 years, I agree.  

jm's picture

Also this "cash ban" is way, way overstated in impact. It caused some short terms glitches but it certainly doesn't represent total collapse.

China's debt allied with its crashing population- yes crashing population -likely spells total collapse for the Middle Kingdom. It is just a part of the cycle of Chinese history like it or not.

stacking12321's picture

i respect jayant bhandari for what he has to say, he is usually very informative and insightful.

what do you have to add to the conversation aside from "no you're wrong"?

what do you base your comment on, that the cash ban impact is overstated?

do you live in india? do you have hard statistics of impact on GDP?

india is largely a cash based economy, and taking almost all the currency out of circulation crushed the economy in the short term, i don't know if that's still the case or not.

business as stusual's picture

The cash ban is going to result in a political fracturing in India that will topple the BJP from power.

The consequences of this experiment imposed on India by the US have yet to fully manifest.

They will not be pretty.

Free Spirit's picture

I don´t think so since BJP leader Modi will likely start a war against Pakistan pretty soon. Some analyst mentioned March as the most likely month for the war to break out. That war could easily also go nuclear. Thus BJP´s future will depend on the result of the war.

I Feel a little Qeasy's picture

..'crashing population -likely spells total collapse for the Middle Kingdom'

 

What utter shite. Investment in automation enlarges the pie, which by youur own admission will be shared among fewer people.

Collapse? Yeah you wish, you fuck-wit!

Dubaibanker's picture

India went bankrupt in 1991 and ever since has worked with band aid solutions, marginal improvements, status quo policies etc.

Radical changes like in China or Korea or Japan being rebuilt etc are highly unlikely at this stage if not impossible because the population has jumped 400% since 1947 (India's Independence).

India adds 100m new citizens every 4 years so it is impossible to keep pace with any development given the backlog of the past 20-25 years. 10m new graduates are generated every single year whereas in comparison job creation is barely at 150k in 2016, 250k in 2015, 350k in 2014. It was highest in 2011 around 1.1m. The need is to create 10m! so the backlog over a decade alone is 80-90m!!!

As compared to China with an identical population, China creates 10-15m jobs per annum and has picked up steam since 2011, annual job creation average is around 14m in 2016, until 2011 was 10m and in between was 12-13m pa!

Corruption is now in the DNA of every single human in India except the poverty stricken Godmen running around the country who are also needed to keep giving hope to the masses.

India is a beautful country with lot of diversity in culture, religion, food, traditions etc that acts as a glue to keep the nation together. Except when BJP the radical Hindu party comes to power, India is typically peaceful for a majority illiterate and poor nation given it's 1.3 billion size.

But economically, it is bankrupt!

Unlike China or Korea or Japan or even UAE etc no Indian company dominates globally. Inside India, yes, but outside no. As someone said below, Indians are more successful outside India so the best brains keep leaving and Govt has no policy to attract them or retain them because it simply can't. The uber rich along with the politicians and the cops and judiciary have destroyed India for the same reason why it occurs elsewhere - greed and lack of empathy for fellow humans and you may add lack of vision or inability to make any changes except at the individual level.

Millions of individuals do a great job in India of educating the poor, taking care of the blind or the orphans who are also in millions and do some groundbreaking changes in irrigation or healthcare etc. But the govt is totally useless. 

A new politician has arisen out of this chaos in 2012 who is dramtically changing New Delhi-the capital city of India by opening free medicine and healthcare clinincs, radically improving schools and providing vastly improved toilets.

This one man - Kejriwal belonging to Aam Aadmi Party (means Common People's party) has the potential and is the hope for India at this stage. Else India is broken! If you google him you will see what difference he has made in just 2 years of governance in Delhi despite being over ruled by the Federal Govt on each step. You may google it.

To get an idea of what India is all about and why it is stuck in a time warp while the whole world including Pakistan or Vietnam or Philippines whizz by ahead while India remains stuck in it's history and is stuck in the quagmire created by it's politicians who neither have a brain nor the courage to reshape anything but their own pockets.

Fifth column: India’s eternal time warp
38BWD22's picture

 

 

Your piece matches my understanding as well, although I knew nothing of Kejriwal.

But your analysis is way beyond anything I could write.

+ 1.1 billion

Dubaibanker's picture

Thank you! Most appreciated.

I do try to share my knowledge and my thoughts whenever I get the chance.

Dubaibanker's picture

No one knows abotu Kejriwal because his media is FB and Twitter. Mainstream news media is under pressure NOT to show anythinig about Kejriwal. But he keeps winning awards globally from Ramon Magasasay Award to Top 50 Leader in the World from Fortune or Forbes and Top 100 personalities of 2016 and movies have been made on him in Toronto and London.

India is going the dictatorial way under Modi and Kejriwal's offices have been raided by CBI (equiv of FBI), his Cabinet Secretary was arrested and then forced to retire because he wanted to tell the truth that CBI asked him to depose against Kejriwal for fabricated charges.....then 12 MLA's (like senators in the Delhi State Assembly) have been arrested on fake charges. Except 2, all are out and the courts have told Modi and CBI not to file fake charges.

Modi is totally vindictive and upset and very angry on Kejriwal because he is doing a fantastic job and is ZERO corrupt so no allegation stands against him.

On the grassroots people adore him. He has made water bills free for ALL in Delhi who consume less than 20,000 liters.

He has made Govt schools better than private schools with gyms, swimming pools, safety etc. He has given cleanliness and admin of schools to newly created post of Admin Manager instead of Principals. He has sent his deputy to Finland and Singapore to sign agreements and do training.

They have opened skill shops in conjunction with Singapore etc.

For the first time in history, Delhi school teachers/principals (based on some merit) were sent ot Cambridge UK to train.

He has started free medical clinics, of which 150 have opened and another 850 shall open in the next year. Each one costs less than USD 30k which is unheard of in a corrupt country like India.

He wants free wifi for many places in Delhi but Modi has created problems and hence this project is delayed. Both the officers managing clinics and wifi were arbitrarily transferred.

He has placed more cameras and lights all over the city.

Toilets in Delhi that have recently opened look like as if you are in Europe somewhere which is unheard of in India.

ELectricity bills have also come down.

Schools have been forced first time in history to REFUND school fees because they always were hand in glove with the politicians and could hike fees 20% to 50% and there was no recourse. Parents are super happy since they actually received cheques back from private schools! It's coming in the newsppaers or FB/Twitter every other day.

Overall, he is like a breath of fresh air in the polluted country of India.

In Delhi, he won 67 out of 70 seats which is 95.7% of all seats which is unprecedented in the history of democracy anywhere in the world!

Today on Feb 4 there are elections in states of Goa and Punjab and his party is expected to totally wipe out all opposition just like in Delhi. anything under 80% of all seats would be shocking to me.

HRH Feant's picture
HRH Feant (not verified) Dubaibanker Feb 3, 2017 12:53 AM

Interesting comment but I think Pakistan is stuck in a time warp.

Interesting that you think Pakistan is ahead of India.

Dubaibanker's picture

Pakistan was indeed stuck in a time warp for over 30 years because US was using it against India and in creating terror worldwide. Now that US has stopped funding them, Pakistan has straightened itself.

The catalyst occured about 2 or 2.5 years ago when the terrorists killed over 200 kids in a school.

This led to the Army, Govt, ISI and even terror outfits to come together and the new politician has arisen Imran Khan the famous cricketer who has quite a support base because he fights upto America and Pakistan has successfully blocked and burnt hundreds of NATO trucks which is why Obama had to sign the deal with Iran to allow access to NATO trucks into Afghanistan and other areas.

After the killing of children, Pakistan realised they needed to get rid of terror.

They passed unpaid tax money known as black money into the country with no questions asked through a Parliament act in 2012, ever since Karachi stock exchange has run up from 12k to 50k today. This is the highest growth as far as I know perhaps Chile did it too.

Secondly, China has showed up and invested over USD 60bn in Pakistan since the last 2 years. Russia has acquired access to an entire port for their use along with Pakistanis.

Thirdly, China is developing roads, railroads, ports at a massive speed. Look up Gwadar China on google. Gwadar is expected to beat Dubai in the next few years.

All this combined has provided stability to the Pakistani Rupee versus the USD. It is so stable around 100-105 level to 1 USD that you could use it to measure your temperature or check out the time. :)

This is at a time when the entire world currencies have dropped massively against the USD, CAD and AUD dropped 35-40%, African ones dropped from 100% to 400%, Russia about 300%, India dropped 50% in 5 years....even China has droppe din the last 2 years as have Malaysia and many in Asia...so NOT drop is pure magic in this world!

Overall, Pakistan has better days ahead, thanks to China who is using Pakistan and Myanmar to bring oil supplies through land instead of water. Hence, Pakistan plays a VERY critical role for China. Railways have already started overcoming the hindrance of Himalayas which is unprecedented.

While US and India can just watch and can not do much except disrupting the growth with media and a few bombs.

Trump better know what he is doing because he is strengthening the Eurasia by making Russia-Iran-Pakistan and China come togteher ever more. India is the only useless partner and that is only because it has no money and has too many problems. Modi is also bent on destroying India with useless fights. 

These two are brilliant reads to put some of my thoughts together in perspective:

Iran Keen To Join Pakistan And China’s CPEC: Analysis

 

 

The Iran-Russia-China Strategic Triangle

 


http://journal-neo.org/2016/11/21/the-iran-russia-china-strategic-triangle/

 

JackT's picture

Was the fastest..until all their cash *poof'd*

NoDebt's picture

Whenever somebody comes at me with the tired argument that higher education is the panacea of prosperity, my favorite reply is India.  It's brimming with (somewhat) well trained doctors and engineers but it's still a complete shithole.

The United States became a world power in every sense of the word when most of it's population had a high school education at most.

Someday, maybe India will get up off it's ass, but that's not the current trajectory.  Not by a long shot.

 

sinbad2's picture

That's because all the well trained Indian doctors work in the west.

It's a good deal for the west, we get doctors, without having to train our own doctors. It's one of the many ways the west bludges off Asia.

Of course India gets ripped off, it pays to train the doctors, but doesn't get the benefit.

besnook's picture

india's biggest asset in the long term is the fact that half the country doesn't want anything, having taken a vow of poverty. the benefactors of the economic growth in india are a small group of people. this will constrain the economic growth of the country to a manageable pace naturally, a good thing. westerners will never get used to the filth and public defecating, however.

a side note- the bureaucracy is a remnant of the british empire. they seem to have that part down pat and the bribes are miniscule(c'mon. it's in rupees) campared to the usa.

Dr. Bonzo's picture

India is an extremely irrational, superstitious, and tribal country.

This is an apt description that fits most of the 3rd world. Including such spectacularly developed countries as South Korea, China, fuck, most of Asia, certainly all of Africa, and probably most of Central Asia as well.

It shouldn’t be too difficult to abandon the idea that India will be the next China.

It's trendy to pimp China as the next global hegemon. I just don't see it. The only thing China could do with success is export Chinese. People. If they could offload 400-500 million Chinese to Europe and North America unnoticed, then the 21st century might become the Chinese century. I'm well aware of the comparisons made between England and the 19th century and the US and the 20th century. Aside from its massive experiment in money printing, China lacks any of the cultural prerequisites necessary to become a true world leader. If anything, Chinese political leadership is highly regressive and deeply neomercantilist. There is no cultural threat from China, the commies themselves have essentially eradicated Chinese culture. There is no linguistic threat from China, the underpinning of the Chinese language is the written language, and there is absolutely no way in hell the global population is going to invest the years of language learning required to have even a perfunctory grasp of basic Chinese, just to end up a second-class citizen in this alleged Chinese empire.

And this alleged innovation that China is supposedly leading.... huh? Did I miss something? China is investing heavily in foreign IP and as soon as it acquires foreign companies proceeds to ripoff IP with ruthless abandon. The one thing the Chinese do with some degree of mediocrity is replicate other peoples' innovations. Do you see the world flooding to Beijing to copy the latest trends? To study at the leading academic institutions? Pffffff.... Londonistan, as laughable as it has become, is still the economic center of the planet. New York runs a close second. Nothing flows from China but monopoly money. The Chinese have nothing to contribute to humanity politically but totalitarianism.

In sum, I don't see any of the characteristics that marked the successful domination of their eras by the UK and US respectfully present in China. The UK and the US, for better or worse, carved their place in history and contributed to building the modern era and the current world order with superior political models, dominant relevant cultural memes that spread like wildfire, and cutting edge technological innovation, that in fact continues to this day. No country rivals the US in innovation, no matter how shoddily the manufacturing base continues to bang along.

The only proposition that places China in such a framework given the current political and cultural realities in China would suggest the complete world, except for China, essentially collapses and Chinese mandarins swarm across the globes by the hundreds of millions to rule the planet.

So... global zombie apocalypse that spares China. Oh right......

38BWD22's picture

 

 

Another fantastic analysis, Dr. B.,  matching my own views from traveling to both China and India (doing business with China).

hedgiex's picture

Incisive. China beggars the global economy through its own asinine nationalism that iit conflates with the Chinese culture. China lovers have largely refused to see 1) the Chinese culture being emasculated by PRC nationalism 2) the PRC People being crippled by a command and control system that does not nuture the development of science and technology but encourage the short term thefts of innovations 3) the PRC People being deluded to focus on their fake cultural superiority that guarantees their rise to global power and glory. It is asinine to start with a superiority complex imagining that the rest of the World comprises of inferior cultures and populated by retarded genes 4) for the here and now, that it is a ponzi economy. 5) etc etc

China's long history has proved that it is not predestined that China will become the new Middle Kingdom with a prestige and reputation that will be emulated. China can as well go the other way to be back at best as a 2nd World economy. This has to begin with the impending long soft landing (best case) or its economic implosion. 

However, cheer them on as they now over-reach out of weak hard and soft infrastructues and where the now G Zero World as well as global markets have no reasons to be benign to its masked hegemonic ambition. 

 

 

Dr. Bonzo's picture

China lovers have largely refused to see...

Exactly sir. Well said. Well said. And I don't give two shits about the downvotes. It's the same gang of Sinophile fucktards every time. Notice they never engage in an attempt to debate.

 

sinbad2's picture

When I was a sailor I spent a lot of time in Asia. Most of the stores in Asia are either Chinese or Indian. The Chinese were hard businessmen, but once you agreed on a price, they always honoured their end of the deal. The Indian traders were very unscrupulous, always trying to change things after a deal had been agreed, swapping a good watch for a fake etc. Indians remind me of Jews, always trying to screw you for the last cent.

GreatUncle's picture

Think India is on the first rung of the ladder.

1.) Cash ban.

2.) Rung is draconian taxation.

3.) Rung is bail ins.

They have done the QE bit too making any notion of GDP kind of ridiculous.

sekhars's picture

these numbers are not accurate. By PPP India economy is 7-8 trillion where China and US are around 16 trillion. Indian economy is 60-70 percent internal and export/import is much less than China and US. These are not fair comparison. India is in many sense a true democracy where US being run by corporation and military industrial complex and ofcourse Chinese can't even use google.  Growth of India will be enormous in next 25 years and once the infrastructure improves it will be a very different country alltogether.  India has very little if any debt- particularly perosonal debt where China and US are debt based economies 

Tactical Joke's picture

Push-lease, this article is spot on. You didn't refute a single point.

Yep, the West is decadent and debt laden, and the US needs to execute a significant number of politicians for treason at best, and revolution at worst, but even then, India is not going to be top cow for all the reasons laid out in the article. In fact, India will stagnate, at best, though it will more likely decline.

If population growth is your only plus... you're in trouble, slick.

If this post is around in 25 years, feel free to come back and acknowledge that I was right.

nathan1234's picture

What democracy are you talking about?

All parties are with thugs , goons and embroiled in corruption. The judicial system is bought and paid for. Do u know where last years growth came from?

From the continued high taxes on diesel and petro products by Jaitley on lower prices.

 

 

38BWD22's picture

 

 

I'll believe it when I see it, sekhars.

I hope you are right, but I doubt it.

Vardaman's picture

Some people have poverty built into their DNA.  The exceptions prove the rule.

dog1's picture

Author is a moron. India's demographics is better than China, demographics is destiny.

hongdo's picture

His last post was better.  This is just a rehash.  His traffic video didn't look that bad, pretty efficient traffic pattern.  It takes me 10 minutes to get through 4 traffic lights to a main highway.  I remember a lot worse traffic in Varanasi.  Some of his comparisons are off also.  Myanmar was growing like mad when I was there.  Hard to get a hotel room.  South Korea, until their recent crazy impeachment of the president, was a very stable fast growing country. Looks like they still have a lot of nK infiltration.   Nepal does suck.  Most corrupt country I have ever been in ( never been to Africa or South America though.  A friend had his wife kidnapped in Columbia so might be worse.) 

But I think he is largely right about India.  But the issue is really - so what?  What point is he really trying to make?

 

38BWD22's picture

 

 

-- Varanasi had the worst traffic when we were there (2015).  But Delhi & Mumbai were very bad too.

-- I was very impressed with South Korea in 2012.  We still buy over 50% of our bearings from there.

-- Nepal had the only people offering me weed in the streets in over 20 years.  Draw your own conclusions about that.  Very poor as well.

-- South America as a whole is much better off than poor India.

HRH Feant's picture
HRH Feant (not verified) 38BWD22 Feb 3, 2017 12:57 AM

That is very sad to hear that you were being offered weed in Nepal. My god to think they thought it was okay to walk up to an American and they wanted a drug! Shocking.

Nepal has been treated very badly by China so I am guessing the locals are desperate. Very sad.

Free Spirit's picture

"Nepal had the only people offering me weed in the streets in over 20 years.  Draw your own conclusions about that."

What conclusions am I supposed to draw?  My only conclusion is that You are a bit sensitive about weed. When it comes to third world countries the red line is whether they will rob you and then maybe even physically hurt You severely. I am in Morocco right now and here You are frequently offered "haschhish" but You know what ? I just politely say no thank You and then they laugh a bit and that´s that. Peaceful. But the good thing about Morocco is that You hardly ever see drunk moroccans in the street like You see for exampel drunk swedes in the street. There is very little alcohol here, people are really stable and friendly although they are pretty poor (average nominal GNP is USD 2900/year) and You don´t need to be afraid to be robbed like in especially many US cities ( Me and my girlfriend  was held up at gunpoint in broad daylight on the strip just outside my fancy hotel in Las Vegas.) So what conclusions should I draw ? Maybe that You were NOT robbed in awfully poor Nepal ?!

Faeriedust's picture

Wow.  Somebody has got QUITE an axe to grind.  It's one thing to offer solid mathematical reasons why India's growth is unlikely to meet hopes and expectations, but I get the feeling this author desperately WANTS them to fail.

Lies All Lies's picture

Agree,  my feeling too. Lots of facts but quite a bit of emotive stuff as well. Who knows, perhaps the author dated an Indian once and it didn't work out.. ("I'm sorry, my parents don't want me to date an uncultured, spiritually dead Westerner")

And why put in the video of seemingly chaotic traffic,  what did it prove?  Anyone who has driven in Asia - as well as, say London, LA, Sydney - knows that appearances belie the fact that in Asian-  cities at least  - open roads another matter , Asian drivers are generally FAR less aggressive than their western counterparts.  

The constant use of the horn is as a 'Hey, here I am, on your right,  I'm coming through' not "GET THE F*** OUT OF MY F*** WAY OR DIE!!".

What appears as chaos is in fact mostly fairly courteous, give & take, reasonably safe driving, especially given the state of the roads.  You just need to adjust; takes a couple of days or so and a deep breath. 

Perhaps the author should actually visit India one day, hire a car or scooter. And maybe even date again.

(look at the traffic videa again and tell me I'm wrong..)

 

 

 

 

delacroix's picture

a paper mask helps too.  all that traffic does not produce the number of collisions you would expect.

asstrix's picture

"..The reality is that in the last 70 years, Indians have systematically destroyed the institutions left by the British. Today’s judiciary, legislature and executive are not comparable. Today none of these institutions are run for the benefit of the country’s citizens..."

The author seems to be one of those 'elites' that come from a family of 'elites' who lament the British departed India. I thought about making an account on ZH after reading some of the author's previous articles on the recent note ban in India, so that I could comment on this guy's 'articles'. The same message keeps popping up in all of them goes something like. "..After the British left, it was all downhill for India.." The author seems to be one of those guys that aspire to rise to the 'standards' of 'Great' Britain one day.

There was a video in a previous article where a lot of people are seen thronging a place, apparently a bank. No way it can be ascertained that it happened after the 'note ban'.. And the video about India Driving. I have seen that as a funny video before, while I was searching for funny videos from India.

By the way, I am an Indian that live in India. The author might like the British to come back and set things right in India. I don't share his sentiment. The note ban was a pain and I don't support it. I didn't vote for this govt and I am unlikely to vote for Modi, ever. But I know for a fact that I was able to convert all my old currency within 2 weeks of that note ban announcement. I went only once to my bank. Banks were working sunday too at that time for helping people change their currency. There was a queue of not more than 10 people. And I am one of those who use currency for most of my needs.

Articles from people like this author puts the credibility of all other articles on ZH in question. This guy's agenda is to make India look bad. Sure India has a lot of flaws. But that doesn't make everything is as painted by this guy. A few videos of Americans fighting in malls for TVs doesn't represent all of America. Or images of beggars or people living in shipping containers in Britain doesn't represent all of Britain.

Hongcha's picture

To the Indians on this thread:

1.   Is it true or not that Modi chose the (a) wedding; and (b) harvest season, when families and subsistence farmers most needed ready cash, to implement this?

2.   If yes, how do you feel about your golden Brahmin Modi using pain and deprivation to please his UK/US/NWO masters ?

3.   How do you feel about watching your fellow citizens beaten with sticks to keep them in line?  How does it feel when your own population is reduced to livestock?

 

asstrix's picture

1. This is not about a Modi or a wedding or harvest season. My post was regarding the bias of the author.

2. Irrelevant. And Modi is not a Brahmin. Get your facts right. And I am not a fan of his.

3. Nobody beats me with sticks in India. I am not living the life of livestock. And I am not a privileged Brahmin or other type guy here. I am a Christian. Your argument just shows your ignorance. You see a photo or a video by a biased guy and assume it is like that everywhere in India. If you are an American, how do you feel when you see people fighting like animals for TVs and other electronic stuff in malls? How do you feel when you see peaceful protestors get pepper sprayed in their face by the law?

besnook's picture

zh really doesn't have a philosophy except to put stuff out there and have people agree with it or dispute it.

Lies All Lies's picture

Well, maybe. Though I think the orientation is to the right.

But I can't get over how so very altruistic ZH is... I mean, they spend all their time to put stuff out there, jsut so we can be keyboard warriors and have our say. ZH is magnificent! Where is the 'donate' button?

/sarc......  (there are some dumb-nuts here)

Tactical Joke's picture

A generality is just that, a generality, and they hold true in the general sense. You picked one anecdotal generality in the article and attacked it. Good on you... now disprove his factual arguments.

You have a cultural problem that you have to solve before India will become anything beyond a backwater wannabe. Any westerner who's worked very closely with Indians probably know what I'm taking about. Again, I'm speaking in generalities, so if you come back with the "not all Indians..." nonsense, I'm going to punch you square in the dick.

asstrix's picture

 I know for a fact that he is biased. So his 'facts' will be carefully chosen by him to support his 'views'. Why should I go through his numbers and charts to disprove his 'factual arguments'?

I may have a cultural problem. I have been reading ZH for years now and the feeling I am getting is that the west is disintegrating. EU is in trouble. So is USA. So while I am solving my cultural problems, you better start doing something about your issues as well.

highly debtful's picture

Thanks for a thoughtful reaction. On the ground input is always welcome here and you confirm my suspicions about the author. This being his third or fourth article I've read, it seems he has a serious bone to pick with India. 

unklemunky's picture

It's gonna grow another 25% in the next few years once Trump bans the Visa scam.

unklemunky's picture

You can no longer use the old saying "too many chiefs, not enough Indians". There plenty of fucking Indians.

GenghisKhan666's picture

India Is Not The Next China!!  Thank God...It should be celebrated.

ZeroHedge is the new tabloid of the digital news aggregators!!  I stopped being a regular visitor 3-4 years ago.  Come back once in a while to check if anything has changed.  Glad to see I did not miss anything.  ZeroHedge is the Banana Republic. Ha

nathan1234's picture
You seem to be out of your territory. As Genghis Khan you should be marauding and killing elsewhere and not wasting your time here.