Italy Increasingly Likely To Abandon The Euro

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

An analysis of the political setup in Italy shows eurosceptics are on the verge of taking control of the country.

The only missing ingredient is an early election. And early elections are now the odds-on favorite.

Let’s back up a bit to fill in the pieces as to how things got to this point.

  1. Former prime minister Matteo Renzi stepped down in December after holding a referendum that failed miserably. See Renzi Resigns Following Crushing Referendum Defeat: Beppe Grillo, Marine le Pen, Matteo Salvina Tweets
  2. Italy’s president, Sergio Mattarella, appointed Paolo Gentiloni as the new prime minister after Renzi resigned. See Meet Paolo Gentiloni, 4th Consecutive Italian Technocrat Appointed Prime Minister: Renzi Not Vanquished Yet
  3. The president said he would not hold new elections until differences between how the lower house of parliament assigned seats.
  4. Point number three has been resolved. Both houses of Parliament are back on a proportional system.

New Elections

  • New elections are possible now but the next scheduled elections are not until 2018.
  • Matteo Renzi wants new elections in June. Even though he resigned, he wants back in. Renzi wants new elections this year because PD may oust him if he waits.
  • Beppe Grillo wants elections as soon as possible because he believes he will win, and also because FI leader Silvio Berlusconi cannot run for prime minister until 2018 because of a tax fraud conviction.
  • Berlusconi does not want early elections, but he is in the minority.

It is up to the president to call new elections, and there is pressure form at least two fronts for him to do so.

Election Polls

italian-polls-2017-02-03

Chart from Opinion polling for the next Italian general election.

The situation for Renzi is actually way worse than it appears. Not only do polls tend to over-play support for PD, the party is about to splinter. Via email, Eurointelligence explains …

Whatever Happens in Italy, Grillo is Winning

 

Our pessimism about the political outlook for Italy was confirmed once more this morning with reports that the PD is now very likely heading for a split – the trigger being disagreement over the election date. Pier Luigi Bersani, Renzi’s predecessor as general secretary of the party, came out strongly against early election in June saying that the PD would be finished as a party if Renzi were to go ahead.

 

Renzi could assemble a majority in the Italian parliament in favour of a new electoral law and early elections, so this is technically doable. The question is, at what cost? Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement officially supports early elections, but Renzi probably has a point when he says that another year of political chaos in the PD would drive even more voters to Grillo, whose party thrives on the chaos in the country. In other words, Grillo wins both ways, and the likely design of the electoral law will also be favourable to his party. So much for the theories that there would be a technical stitch-up to keep the Five Star Movement out of power. The Italian establishment is not sufficiently united to be able to do this.

 

Massimo D’Alema, Renzi’s fiercest oponent within the PD, says he has done research on the potential electoral support for a party to the left of the PD which could count on 11-14% of the vote. With a weak centre-right and a fragmented left, the probability of a victory by the Five Star Movement, perhaps in alliance with other radical forces, must now be considered very high.

Wrong Five Ways

The don’t worry, it will never happen crowd said …

  1. Renzi would win the referendum – Wrong
  2. Renzi would not resign if he lost – Wrong
  3. Renzi would gracefully step aside after he resigned – Wrong
  4. PD would not splinter – Wrong
  5. The other parties would pass legislation making it impossible for M5S to gain control – Wrong

That same don’t worry, it will never happen crowd also proposed

  1. An alliance between Grillo and other parties won’t happen
  2. If an alliance does happen, parliament will not approve a referendum on the Euro
  3. If there is a referendum on the Euro, people will vote against leaving
  4. It still requires a constitutional amendment

Point number 6 is in the works right now. And if such an alliance does form and win (both are highly likely in my opinion), then all that is left to stop “Italeave” is fearmongering and points 8 and 9.

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buzzsaw99's picture

Take your stinking paws off me, you damned dirty ape!

Whoa Dammit's picture

Here is the list of protesters who were arrested in DC at the inauguration. A certain group  appears to be over represented.

http://gotnews.com/breaking-heres-full-list-231-people-arrested-inaugura...

assistedliving's picture

whoa.  out with it dammit.  what are you trying to imply?

Vilfredo Pareto's picture

It is not only the failure to control illegal immigration, but ordinary Italians watching the EU free Mediterranean shuttle service pick up migrants at sea and drop them off on Italian islands that has peeps riled up and ready to leave, that and the budgetary and banking restrictions.  

 

African illegal immigrants overrunning Italy is the big elephant in the room that many people don't want to discuss.   It is a driver.

run boy's picture
run boy (not verified) Vilfredo Pareto Feb 5, 2017 4:48 PM

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BidnessMan's picture

Charlton Heston, if he were still alive, could not make that movie today.

Yen Cross's picture

   Northern Euros will be like Deutchemarks.

dogismycopilot's picture

Last time I was in Italy, there were shuttered factories and North Africans everywhere outside of Milan. And I mean everywhere. 

I wish them the best. An amazing country and an amazing people. 

thatthingcanfly's picture

Yeah, when last I was in Rome, there were quite a few rather darker-skinned "Italians" roaming about. The immigration problems in Italy are as bad, if not worse, than the problems with the US Southern border. They need a Trump-usconi to clean some of that mess up.

SoDamnMad's picture

There are many boats funded by NGOs roaming off the coast of Libya to grab the migrants and then call in the Italian Coast Guard to "save them". This shuttle service is funded by maybe Mr Soros.  Also it seems the Italians are getting money from some humanitarian fund (maybe the UN, maybe the EU) so it is almost an incentive for the Finance Department of the government to do this, SCREWING  the country royally.

 

Vilfredo Pareto's picture

I believe it is coming.

 

A nation has a right to control its borders.

Omen IV's picture

Once they are out of the EU they need to declare a national emergency -  pick these refugees by Color without regard to due process - ship them to multiple ports and  put them out  - national identity cards need to be issued only for those in Italy for 20 years and their children - then another sweep - $10,000 fines for employers - until they decide who can reenter the country.

 

Clean up is a hard process but must be done

buzzsaw99's picture

Renzi would get pawed by his negro waiter - CORRECT!

NoWayJose's picture

At least 8 different political parties in Italy - sounds like the same thing as our Congress if you peel off the two party labels and look underneath to see the communists, war mongers, NeoCons, Tea Party, Koch-bought party, etc

Byte Me's picture

FFS - Italia averages AT LEAST one election per post-war year.

oncemore's picture

Blacks out ou Europe. Moslems go home.

Mazzy's picture

I never could figure out how a 72 IQ black african or the ultra dangerous Saracen would be a positive benefit to Western civilization other than as cheap labor, but we already have that.....it's called liberal arts students.

So obviously the corps. who control the media and the politicians want that cheap labor.  Maybe art students with bones sticking out of their noses are unreliable workers, but still useful pawns when it comes to other purposes.

Omen IV's picture

you can get two arms and legs anywhere - so why allow these people in?- the Cultural Marxists want to destroy the 3000 year old European Culture - as they do in the USA - so the white population is reduced to 42% or less - then there is never any control except by the ilites in Brussels and Washington

 

the game needs Nationalists in every Sovereign country running the countries

BidnessMan's picture

Who needs Art Students with an Attitude when robots can more reliably make a perfect double skinny latte?

The Robot won't add a bonus Lugie if they don't like the way you look, cause they don't care how you look.

tarabel's picture

 

 

I dunno.

It's kind of nice to see them bitch and moan about their own ethnic problems for a change-- rather than always mounting their high horse to self-righteously denounce us.

Having to mind their own business for a change doesn't leave them any time to poke their noses into ours. At least not as much.

So... a policy which cripples our commercial rivals would seem to be in our own net interest as we start the process of reindustrialization at home.

south40_dreams's picture

Dominos are falling almost daily.  Where is this headed?

tarabel's picture

 

 

Search me. I thought it was a crap game, not dominoes.

No wonder I keep losing my bets.

 

AlexCharting's picture

Its not like Italy will disappear of the map... 

Mazzy's picture

Unless the Saracen invades Sicily again.  Oh wait.....

BidnessMan's picture

LOL - Saracens / Sicilians / Syrians - What difference does it make?

mototard's picture

Well, there is that whole earthquake/volcano thing going on.  Parts of Italy could dissappear soon enough......

Mazzy's picture

Imagine how much better our elections would be had we a parlimentary system here in the US?

We'd have more parties, and more viable ones instead of this crap we get with "first past the post" nonsense.  All we get are extremists in the primaries who then duke it out in the general while perfectly reasonable voices from smaller (ok, tiny) parties get lost in the din.

 

BabaLooey's picture

First - we need to BREAK UP THE MEDIA CABAL OF 6

Independent websites are considered "fringe" - and attacked BY the cabal as such to de-legitimize them.

THEIR web sites rule.

Until the media cabal is broken up, any expansion of the "party" system in place now is going to be marginalized and lied about, by the biased and bought off cabal.

 

Jubal Early's picture

In order to break up the media cabal of 6 you first have to break up the SCOTUS cabal of 8, 5 catholics and 3 jews.  Then you have to disbar their swarms of shyster-locusts.

SoDamnMad's picture

Oh yeah,like this, "In today's Washington new the Bloods and Crips have joined with the Maple Syrup party to legalize cannabis and 100% unadulterated syrup while vetoing the use of wind turbines within 1,000 yds of schools.  Green Organic Farmers counter that people don't care what they put on their pancakes as long as there are GMO free grains.  Film at 11."

Sandmann's picture

Gentiloni is Renzi's seat-warmer put in place by Mattarella who was nominated for President by Renzi

WTFUD's picture

So he's a Sand/Straw man?

max1964's picture

Revolution ..that's what we need in Italy, doesn't make difference who win the elections, and anyway  Grillo has not the right people to rule country and  figth the Mafia Elite ...

DetectiveStern's picture

Napoleon tried to take Europe then he invaded Russia and fucked up. Hitler tried to take Europe then he invaded Russia and fucked up. The EU has squared off with Russia what happens next?

William Dorritt's picture

Russia just reconsituted the First Guards Mechanized Army 150,000 new troops with new gear.

Before the EU and US overthrew the Govt in the Ukraine, Russia had a few underarmed border guards facing West, no more.

Ink Pusher's picture

I would love to see a link to that report on the FGMA deployment..

 

jm's picture

Here's a call that makes more sense than the beige and reflexive consensus.

Italy isn't going to leave. Italy will fragment.

This is the only way for a true repudiation of debt.

Lega Nord will usher in a new Lombardi state within in the EU and be absolute equal to her peers. The south will have to get a taste of Greece and get itself together.

caesium's picture

It's the future of Europe. Italy needs to break up as does Spain and Germany. By fragmentation, it will render reinvasion and subsequent management by Steve Bannon's new model army more complex.

OverTheHedge's picture

And then Catalonia, the Basque region, Scotland (in their dreams), bits of France etc all secede? On face value, that could never happen, but if we are truly moving towards global government, then cutting big countries into lots of little bits might be a good plan. The clever part will be avoiding civil wars. I wish I was old - this is all getting a bit too exciting for me to want to have to live through it. #feelingtired

CRM114's picture

Divide and conquer will not work, if that's what you think the globalists are up to.

Firstly, I don't think they think so, which is why they've been pushing for ever larger unions, I think because (like the EU) it's easier to make those both unaccountable and responsive to their demands (e.g. TTIP)

Secondly, the fragmentation, at least at the street level, is in direct opposition to globalism. Good luck dealing with a bunch of angry Scotsmen waving pointy things around, that's why the British Army has stuck them in the front line for 300 years. And the Basques are the same, but with much better food ;) 

 

As for too exciting, I'm part of the Bring It On! crowd. It'll only be worse the longer it isn't resolved. There's no nice way out of this.

Jubal Early's picture

I don't think the Germanic Tyroleans want anything to do with a Lombardi state ruled from Genoa or Venice.  

roadhazard's picture

If banning cash is really true the perfect time to do it is when a country leaves the Euro. Ain't gonna happen.

directaction's picture

I'd just like Italy to return.
I vacationed in Italy in the mid-80s. There were actual Italians living there.
Now it's become a filthy Third World cesspool, especially Rome.  

dearth vader's picture

Don't sell the skin, before the bear has been shot.

Mish may be cheerleading as much as he likes, the chances of Italy dropping the euro are negligible. If ever the country can get its political act together, and a referendum on the euro be approved, the ECB and the EU'd sabotage it. Bond rates will soar and the government will be replaced by just another technocrat, Monti, version 2.0.

Don't expect too much of the Dutch elections of March 15, either. Geert Wilders may prevail and his PVV come out as the biggest party, but he'll never be allowed to govern, because no one of the others will join him in a coalition. He'll be simply overruled, "kaltgestellt", sent to Coventry. It has been done before, and besides, there'd be demonstrations till Kingdom cometh, never mind the Netherlands being a kingdom, already.

The same goes for Le Pen in France. She can boast of 25% of the vote. It'll be enough to win the first round, but in the run off she'll go down in flames, just like last year in departmental elections. She'll be even worse off than Geert in the Netherlands, because of the differences of the election systems, in France winner takes all, in the Netherlands equal representation.

In the end, 2017 will be a big disappointment for euro rebels, nothing to see here, move along. On the other hand, the Trump policies may prove so disruptive to EU cohesion, that the whole caboodle will crack up by its own fault lines.

OverTheHedge's picture

If lots of people vote for change, but then get shafted by the system, it might mean that "non-conventional" democratic methods come into play. If Greece was anything to go by, a couple of years of rioting should be expected, before the youngsters get bored, demoralised and leave the country. If every capitol in Europe ignites at the same time, interesting decisions will be made by Brussels, for our own good, obviously.

I can't wait.

Vilfredo Pareto's picture

That is probably correct.

 

However anybody who still doesn't see decades of European political turmoil ahead  probably needs a new crystal ball.

Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Renzi & Co. should be in jail and they know it!... Which is why they walked away from it completely given their contributions to the "damage"!

Ink Pusher's picture

3 Years ago I wrote:

" When the sky falls for the EU, it will be like rats attempting a mass exodus from the proverbial sinking ship."

Since then Brexit became a reality and the instability of the EU has become more than evident in the UK's wake.

The complete failure of the Greece and the pending failure of the Italy only serve to add yet more relative uncertainty to the mix.

It was only a matter of time before everyone realized that they have indeed signed a deal with an amoral anti-democratic banking corpocracy that couldn't care less if they respectively sink or float while drowning in compounded debt and social unrest.

If we have learned anything in the past 2 decades, it should be that BAILOUTS never worked and never will. They just delay the inevitable and add more interest to the already existing excessively BAD DEBTS.