German Default Risk Spikes To Highest Since Brexit As Merkel Lead Plunges To Multi-Year Low

Tyler Durden's picture

Germany’s Social Democrats narrowed the gap with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s bloc to the closest in more than four years, reinforcing a poll bounce after they chose outsider Martin Schulz to challenge Europe’s longest-serving leader. As Bild reports, the 6-point surge in opposition support was the biggest ever recorded for the party... and may explain why German sovereign risk spiked to its highest since Brexit.

As Bloomberg reports, support for the SPD jumped 8 percentage points to 29% from a month earlier, the highest level since the last election in September 2013, according to the Infratest-Dimap for broadcaster ARD. Merkel’s Christian Democratic-led bloc, known informally as the Union, slid 3 points to 33%. Half of those surveyed would support Schulz if the chancellor were elected directly, compared with 34% for Merkel.

The poll underscores this year’s political risks for Merkel, 62, who has previously focused on the challenge by the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany, or AfD. The unexpected candidacy by Schulz, new to German politics after leaving his post as president of the European Parliament, has opened another front while Merkel seeks a fourth term at the helm of Europe’s biggest economy in the Sept. 24 parliamentary election.

As The Independent notes, the SPD appointed Schulz, a former European Parliament president, as leader last Sunday, replacing Sigmar Gabriel who said he was standing aside to boost the party's chances.

"Martin Schulz is managing above all to win back former SPD voters and to appeal to them emotionally," Emnid's Torsten Schneider-Haase told the newspaper, adding: "Such a strong shift in party preferences within a week is a one-off."


The move has re-energised the SPD, junior partner in Merkel's 'grand coalition', ahead of September's federal election. Schulz has vowed to unseat Merkel with a campaign aimed at overcoming "deep divisions" that he says have fuelled populism in Germany in recent years.

As the chancellor grapples with U.S. President Donald Trump’s unpredictability, Europe’s biggest refugee crisis since World War II and a surge in support for anti-establishment forces ahead of elections in France and the Netherlands, the political headwinds at home add to a tumultuous political year in the region.

Which may help to explain why German sovereign risk has spiked to its highest since Brexit this last week...

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Haus-Targaryen's picture

German default risk is irrelevant. The probability of some other shithole going bust before Germany is 100%, thus bringing down the world financial system.

On a side note, Schultz is a national embarassment.  Think of him like a Hillary Clinton in Dick Cheny's body.  A EU Federalist of the lowest order.

samjam7's picture

Germans are dumb enough to vote in Schulz thinking they voted for change, while remaining politically correct. 

Well as the saying goes, every country has the gvoernment it deserves, this also applies to Germany.

Haus-Targaryen's picture

Jein.  "Yes and no" 

Since WWII -- the German population has consumed more or less constant doses of self-loathing propaganda.  Access to real information has been suspended and replaced with "We are the cause of all of Europe's problems," which is unique to Germany.  Additionally, they have been consuming the other propaganda the rest of the West has been force-fed since the end of the Cold War, being 

"Women, true feminism is getting a job and not having a family.  The only way you can be equal to men is to have no children.  Career first above everything." 


"Men, kids and a family are seriously the worst thing ever.  You only get to sleep with one woman again for the rest of your life.  Kids are expensive, and how would you have the time to watch sports 24/7 if you are expected to not only take care of your kids and wife but have a job to support them.  Best thing you can do is remain a child; party-fucking-hard until you are in your late 30s and sleep with as many women as humanily possible."

It has led to a toxic combination where truth here has been suspended and replaced with some alternative reality.  Having grown up in the U.S. and now living here among and only with Germans, it feels as if I am in a MK Ultra program constantly.  

It is for this reason almost all Swiss journalism is labeled "right wing" in Germany, as you guys haven't adopted the self-loathing the Germans have.  

The good news here is people are starting to wake up and realize en masse how biased the media is.  We just need a financial panic to get things rolling and the "right wing" will sweep into power in most of Europe.  First order of the day is to completely clean out all publicly owned and operated information and news agencies.  

Last night as I was driving back to FFM from Berlin, I sat and wondered if I am just wasting my time.  If this culture is so intent on slitting its wrists vertically, why do I have forceful conversations with many people how crazy this is?  

IDK.  I don't think this is the government the Germans deserve as they've been the US' bitch for some time now.  We'll see. 

samjam7's picture

Nice response. Yes of course propaganda is strong in Germany, a lot worse than in Switzerland (although ours is also very controlled, only one seminal paper that can be considered truly conservative and it is constantly being ridiculed by the MSM). I do hope the referendum that stops public financing of our state broadcasting passes, I'm sick and tired of having to finance NATO war propaganda.

I do feel when the Euro trainwreck finally comes to a standstill, either through Italy or another banking crisis, Germans will wake up and scream for change. I am just worried about all the damage done to the country in the meantime. Just the other day I read on 'Die Welt' that some municipalities in North-Rhine Westphalia paid over 9000 Euros a months for each refugee for caretaking, shelter and food in a simple shelter place last year. These kinds of news should be enough for people to not even remotely consider Schulz as an alternative to Merkel. Let's see how it goes, they will come up with all sorts of propaganda in the run-up such as Russian hacking and fake-news to scare the voter.

SoDamnMad's picture

Is there jewish control of the media in Germany like in the states?  I forever wonder why, after 70 years since WWII ended, that they continue to hunt down GUARDS, not officers or the commandant but guards who were at the concentration camps.  These were men who were not physically fit enough to keep up with the front line fighting in either the Russian front or the eastern front after Normandy.  Man your post, obey the rules and don't let anyone escape.  That is not a policy maker. That is a guy who doesn't want to freeze to death on the Russian steppes.  But they make out these men who with dubious evidence are mass murderers. They weren't but don't tell the jews that. They have to keep Germany feeling guilty for a couple more decades.

Haus-Targaryen's picture

The money is almost irrelevant at this point.  Germany, along with the entire Western world is going to get reduced to financial rubble.  

The question I ponder often is how will various parts of the world react to this financial "dooms day." 

All of Western Europe will face some form of hyper-political and social change at a very rapid rate.  

As I was sitting in the car yesterday dwelling on what the future holds, I see Germany after financial collapse unfolding in one of a few ways: 

1) The entire country collapses into itself, financially.  Pension system collapses.  Health care system collapses.  Banking system collapses.  True chaos for a few weeks.  As the "neue Mitbürger" start reacting to chaos in Germany as they have in the shitholes they came from, the average German is going to see brown people causing the majority of the violence and as a whole, the nation demands mass deportations.  Thereafter after some 5 - 7 million people are kicked-out/removed housing, pre-schools, access to medical care becomes more readily available for the population, reducing demand and thus reducing prices.  A recovery comes thereafter with a much more homogenous population.  This nation of approx 70 million people will greatly appreciate cultural homogeneity and will, for the next few generations not re-try multi-culturalism again.   This is my best-case scenario if we are to have a free and prosperous Germany in this century.  

2) The entire country collapses into itself, financially.  Pension system collapses.  Health care system collapses.  Banking system collapses.  True chaos for a few weeks.  As the "neue Mitbürger" start reacting to chaos in Germany as they have in the shitholes they came from, the average German is going to see brown people causing the majority of the violence and as a whole, the rural areas and former Eastern-Germany and parts of Bavaria will demands mass deportations.  As domestic Germans start dishing out "street justice" with the assistance of police, especially in rural areas and in places in the former East Germany racially based crimes against these populations in these parts of Germany will explode.  There will be millions of people on the move in Germany as the muzzies will start fleeing to NRW, Hessen, and BaWu in huge numbers, not wanting to lose their "western free shit forever" quality of life.  As the muzzies fleet West many "normal" Germans will start fleeing East.  Like we saw in 1945 as the wealthy, educated and skilled labor fled West in huge numbers this trend will reverse and quickly.  Germany will subdivide into two or perhaps three states; one being "multi-kulti is Geil" and the other one being a hyper-nationalist state.  Both will be authoritarian; both there will be no freedom of expression dissenting from the status quo ... however one will be filled with the educated and skilled, the other with goat herders and scrap metal collectors.  This will continue for a few years until one side overpowers the other.  

3) The entire country collapses into itself, financially.  Pension system collapses.  Health care system collapses.  Banking system collapses.  True chaos for a few weeks.  As the "neue Mitbürger" start reacting to chaos in Germany as they have in the shitholes they came from, the average German is going to see brown people causing the majority of the violence and as a whole, however due to the brainwashing that has taken place those still sane Germans will keep their mouths shut for fear of retribution, PC still controlling their expression.  Germany descends into a very dark place as those such as myself pack-up their families and head elsewhere.  There are German "colonies" in Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia at the moment.  As the educated and "wealthy" start leaving in droves the German government will do everything to stop this but it will be too late.  Germany would then enter an new "DDR" style state as a whole but with a materially smaller population and a completely decimated intelligencia and working class.  The social damage due to something like this would be worse for the nation than the Second World War was.  

I told my wife yesterday in the car that I will not live in a state run my muslims.  Period.  I will not do it.  If birthrates continue at this pace, we'll be looking to leave in 30 years or so.  I am seriously considering punching property in Poland.

A few other wild-cards we need to constantly bear in mind in Germany:

1) Poland
2) Russia

While both nations have their issues with one another and with Germany, Russia cannot deal having its Western "front" unite with its Southern "front" under the same religion.  This would pose an existential threat to the continued existence of the Russian state.   Poland cannot deal with having a neighbor materially larger than it right next door which embraces Islam in huge numbers.  I imagine these nations either together or independently have plans in place for situations similar to those enumerated above.  

Unless 1 or 2 occur -- there will be no "Germany filled with Germans" in 4 decades.  The same thing goes for France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Austria, the UK, Sweden and Denmark.  

There is a massive conflict and blood-letting in Europe setting itself up.  Only a fool cannot see it coming. 

Jubal Early's picture

I see a simultaneous collapse of Germany with the rest of nothern Europe.  Spreading from Belgium, Netherlands and Danemark.  The populace in the cities is unarmed and will largely be cowed while rioting brownskins burn and loot.  Across Europe.  The countryside will resist, but then comes the famine and invading groups of thugs.  Finally, the tribal carpetbaggers will arrive with some new form of money magick, and the culled herds of multiculti goyim will allow themselves to gladly be made their slaves.   

Its all in the plan thats been out since the Zionist conferences in Basel in 1903.  There is a famous protocol they wrote about the meetings.  The Coudrove-Kalergi plan also details what is in store for Germany and the rest of Europe.

Haus-Targaryen's picture

I've read these plans.  

They have had some success, and some failures. 

They habitually fail to accurately anticipate the scale of resistance to be faced.  Literally, EVERY SINGLE TIME. 

I do anticipate some European nations (as well as the US and Canada, mind you) collapsing exactly as you describe.  I do however anticipate others successfully resisting.  

I've said over and over and over on Zerohedge over the past few years -- the key to our success in the future is our geographic flexibility and skills/wealth we can bring to our new "home lands" such such event occur.  

I have already left the US because I saw the direction it was headed some time ago.  I would have no problem leaving Germany and heading, for example to Sweden if they kick out the Muzzies and Germany welcomes them in.  

Some will prosper and some will succeed.  Its just that simple. 

Jubal Early's picture

I have grandchildren in diapers and in school, I could not force my children to leave with their families and I would not desert them.

I hope you are right about their over-reach, but when I observe what they have done to Germany and Russia over the last 100 years, how they have weilded the US MIC hammer for their own benefit, how they have stolen palesitine and genocided it people, I feel pretty disheartened.

HenryKissingerChurchill's picture

Hi Haus, great insight, thanks. I want to entertain your scenarios further;

Is Germany stil occupied and a vassal in/after your scenarios? or will the sleeper german volk take over?

There are German "colonies" in Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia at the moment

-Are there any sources to find out where the most Germans are fleeing? there are also some nice tiny German colonies in Mexico, Panama, Argentina, Chile what is your view on those?

-Do you see Switzerland or Austria easing the influx of QUALIFIED germans?

-Do you think rapefugees can survive a couple of WINTERS without a running city + monthly paychecks?



kellys_eye's picture

If we accept that polling in Germany follows a similar trend to polling in other countries we should note that the gap is probably a LOT smaller (potentially the complete reverse) of that claimed.

In other words Merkel is in BIG trouble.

Sandmann's picture

Which ? Neue Zurcher Zeitung ?

Jubal Early's picture

"Last night as I was driving back to FFM from Berlin"

I travelled that route on the overnight US army train several times during the cold war.  It was quite fascinating, and arriving at the Bahnhof in Berlin in the morning was always an incredible experience.

I remember during that era how all the German youth were infatuted with AFN broadcasts of Jazz and Rock and Roll.  The signal that was receivable almost everywhere in Germany.  I am certain this was also part of the conditioning.  I sincerely doubt that the German government had any say in what was broadcast, and this might be one of the reasons Ossi's are still different from Wessies.

Sandmann's picture

Used to be broadcast from the airfield in Wiesbaden

Sandmann's picture

 I was driving back to FFM from Berlin...............a sad journey by car.......what did you use.....A7/A9 ? 

You hit the nail on the head in your last 3 lines. There is no "culture" - it is really a Java Box suspended - a kind of Matrix where Unreality Rules. Germans have no history, no knowledge of real leaders, no sense of political philosophy, no identity - they assumed a US Consumerist Identity and cannot define themselves since their Churches are co-opted by The State ever since Napoleon stole church lands to bribe the aristocracy and the German aristocrats imposed a Church Tax collected by the State to compensate the Churches for theft of their property.

So many German bishops are paid directly by The State. On top of which the German State pays out €180 bn in subsidies each year

Blitzkrieg77's picture

German default risk is very relavent. If Germany goes down, so does the EU. Germany runs the EU, the world's largest economic bloc.

CuttingEdge's picture

The world's largest economic bloc. True.

More than half it's members being economic basket cases? Very true.

CuttingEdge's picture

I would add that in terms of natural resources and their provision, the bloc most lacking industrial self-sustainability.

And that's a biggie if the shit ever goes down again in whatever form (social collapse sooner rather than later the most likely with Merkel's pan-EU moslem horde the trigger).

Invinciblehandaxe's picture

What the fuck zee germanaz ??? what da fuq?? glad you are ditching the merkel bitch but choosing and voting that fucker schultz??? that schultz with an elementary education?? fucking fuck. you germanz are the stupidest nation on the whole planet. yes you are even more stupid than african negros. fuck germanstan. fuck you all the way you stupid fucks. let the muzzies eat you all alive. fucking stupid germanstan.

Sandmann's picture

TARGET2 balances are Germany's biggest risk. Financing your own exports is not the cleverest strategy

Silver Savior's picture

If everyone and every country would all just default on everything at the same time we could just reset this whole mess. Mathematically impossible to repay!

Rocco May's picture

The parties (CDU/CSU and SPD, Left and Green are the same shit) have become identical -
Global NWO, International socialism, EU dictatorship and millions of refugees is their goal.
Two ugly Germans, Merkel and Schulz, fight for power and the German Sheeple vote them.

“Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity,
and I'm not sure about the former. “
Albert Einstein

HenryKissingerChurchill's picture

“Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity,
and I'm not sure about the former. “
Albert Einstein


Fireman's picture

CDU SPD and German Lügenpresse..all fake...fake as CNN and the entire Hitlery DNC and Republicrap narrative. One of the few real German journalists Udo Ulfkotte died recently but he nails it; Germany is an occupied vassal state controlled by fake news and pimps and whores masquerading as politicians. Take out the German keystone from NATO and the entire crime syndicate collapses.


Udo Ulfkotte  R.I.P.

MK13's picture

Shultz is the same shit - but has label of different enough that it satisfies German PC public. But that's how these changes in German public opinion happen - when it moves, it moves. I suspect Merkel is done - and will know soon enough- I just hope it's not weiner shnizel like Shultz.

Long memory man's picture

AfD is the enemy for the EU so Schultz + Merkel band togther to split the vote.

Horsetrading as usual, anything as londg as one of them wins out, then business as usual.

rmopf2010's picture

What we see in Germany with Martin Schultz coming to SPD

is TPTB/NWO don't want the new comunism to end in Europe so they use the twin card play (SPD and CDU) to divide and the end result will be the same.


Afd Will have no chance of winning. I think it is time Afd to bet on Schauble as their finance minister he is the only one in Germany, who tells the truth:

1) About rafugees (shy criticism)

2) About QE+NIRP ruining economy  (well visible always criticizing ECB)

and Schauble is in a good position to help Afd win some election. Time to AFd try to get HUGE man (Schauble) to their sides if they want to win against the NWO globalists (Angela Merkl, Martin Schultz)

By the way Schults is FAR WORSE than Merkl, if you German want to solve a problem don't downgrade your government from horse (Merkl) to donkey (Schultz)


HenryKissingerChurchill's picture

time Afd to bet on Schauble

Schäuble is ok with Germany being a vassal (not sovereign)


jet20's picture

Let's not get tricked by this fog of confusion! Schulz and his party represent the same globalist establishment, the same self-destructive policies as Merkel (if not worse). What this actually does is suck support from the actual and only real opposition, ie the AfD. Between Schulz and Merkel, the choice boils down to: pestilence or cholera? In any case, the establishment wins!

Sandmann's picture

This is MSM hype to draw voters away from AfD........"we have a new option for you"

In fact Gabriel as Foreign MInister is more interesting even if he cannot speak English.......he wants Russia brought in from cold and sanctions dropped. Schultz has no chance to be Kanzler because he would need coalition partners and neither CDU nor CSU would agree. His personality is odious and he is poisonous because of his behaviur in the EU parliament. Germany would be in serious trouble. 

Hannelore Kraft is the key figure - after turning Germany's most populous state into a Failed State occupied by North African rapists - her regime will fall and with that the Hochburg of SPD power.


nibsy's picture



Schulz is an EU insider. He knows how the machinery works and will twist arms to keep the German industrial bigs protected.


Merkel won't be able to handle Trump and industrial leaders know it, that's my take. She completely blew the read before the US election and doesn't seem to have a backup plan. Reports have her lecturing Trump about the Geneva Convention refugee policy in their first phone call. She doesn't have a fucking clue how Trump operates. How good can the advisors be who are prepping her?


AfD could get voters if they would sack up, get rid of Petry, state their case methodically as they did in the beginning, anf define their limits. Right now they will accept any fringe group willing to vote for them. That keeps away the hesitant cucks who are looking for an alternative (and there's a lot of them), but fear being branded as part of the fringe. Safer to go with a known 'unknown', Schulz.

zippy_uk's picture

Whats German for "Fuck off Merkel ?"

Grumbleduke's picture

Verpiss dich, Merkel!


On another note:

Why all of a sudden do we start to believe polls? You think these aren't rigged? Dream on!

This fuck was never liked in Germany, but all of a sudden (with the stroke of many pens) he's our saviour! Vomit inducing bullshit, that's what it is - fuck 'em all!

BritBob's picture



There is a trade imbalance in favour of the European Union so it is in the interest of the EU to make amicable arrangements with the United Kingdom. What's more, the UK can do its own trade deals on a one-to-one basis instead of having the EU to deal 27 member states before it makes a trade deal.

The UK has opted for a hard Brexit especially when one country (or part of a country in Belgium) can stall negotiations for so long. Spain could act in a similar fashion over Gibraltar and has the cheek to maintain its Gibraltar sovereignty claim. Claim?

Gibraltar - Some Relevant International Law:


So it looks like a quick hasta luego !

God is The Son's picture

In 10 years, German men will be demanding Sex Change Operations and want to be women, lots of GermanTran's will be around. Germany is syncing into the Abyss. Voting for Schultz, Globalistic Commie Marxist who looks very Jewish.

God is The Son's picture

The West is fked, Communism, Jews and Liberty (French Revolution) has turn western civilization into a mess.

Last of the Middle Class's picture

slow motion train wreck until it isn't.

squid's picture

The people of Germany are dumb as posts....

Shultz is the sam as Merkle, IDIOTS!!


If Shultz wins nothing will change, it's the same as voting for Merkle.



Herdee's picture

Germany is the financier of socialism and uncompetitiveness throughout Europe. Italy alone can bust their derivative scams very easily.

shrimpythai's picture

"2043: Europe’s transformation into an Islamic caliphate is complete. Rome is named the capital. The world’s economy thrives under Muslim rule."

Baba Vanga


just something to think about 

shrimpythai's picture

85% hit rate on her prophecies supposedly



shrimpythai's picture

2016: “Muslims” will invade Europe, which will “cease to exist” as we know it. The ensuing campaign of destruction will last years, driving out populations and leaving the entire continent “almost empty”.

shrimpythai's picture

4308: Due to mutation people at last beginning to use their brains more than 34%. Completely lost the notion of evil and hatred.

gawd 2300 years to wait for this ? damn that is too long for me - better sign off soon as already got past this one 5 5 5 onwards and upwards ! 
shrimpythai's picture

4308: Due to mutation people at last beginning to use their brains more than 34%. Completely lost the notion of evil and hatred.

gawd 2300 years to wait for this ? damn that is too long for me - better sign off soon as already got past this one 5 5 5 onwards and upwards ! 
HenryKissingerChurchill's picture

-Kalergi plan (miscegenation into low IQ brown mongrels) / also Hooton plan

-George Soros leaks on the Merkel plan

"I think there is a resurgence of anti-Semitism because at this point in time Europe has not yet learned how to be multicultural. And I think we are going to be part of the throes of that transformation, which must take place. Europe is not going to be the monolithic societies they once were in the last century. Jews are going to be at the centre of that. It’s a huge transformation for Europe to make. They are now going into a multicultural mode and Jews will be resented because of our leading role. But without that leading role and without that transformation, Europe will not survive."
~ Barbara Lerner Spectre

Nothing to see here, it is just a plan to turn europe into a future race of mongrel Jew-worshippers...

whatamaroon's picture

They sound like the Democrats and Republicans here, no difference between the two.

aliens is here's picture

Great, I see the Germans is going to cause another world war. What's with those krauts?

aliens is here's picture

Great, I see the Germans is going to cause another world war. What's with those krauts?

Bopper09's picture

Well, if 34% is anything like Killary's 92%, then why would Merkel even show up?  Good bye, satanic bitch.