Shock Poll Shows Merkel Losing Chancellorship If Elections Held Today; JPMorgan Stunned

Tyler Durden's picture

Overnight we reported that Germany's default swaps spiked to the highest level since Brexit as a recent poll showed that Merkel's lead in the polls had slid to multi-year lows ahead of Germany's elections later in the year, provoking some concerns that a formerly unthinkable "tail risk" outcome was becoming more likely. However, according to new data unveiled today, Merkel's headaches are only just starting, because in a brand new poll released this afternoon, the CDU would get 30% of the vote, while the suddenly resurgent SPD would get 31%. This means that the SPD's new head, Martin Schulz, would enter any coalition talks as the leader of the largest party, hence becoming Chancellor, leading to a stunned reaction by JPMorgan.

In a note released this afternoon by JPM's Greg Fuzesi, the strategist writes that following the recent resignation of Sigmar Gabriel as leader and chancellor candidate of the SPD, there has been much attention on how his replacement Martin Schulz would perform. Having spent most of his career in the European Parliament, most recently as its president, and being relatively unknown in Germany, this is not easy to predict. In his first major TV interview, he was recently pressed to explain how exactly he differs from his predecessor Gabriel and also from Chancellor Merkel, and what his focus on fairness would mean in practice. This was not entirely straightforward for him.

Nevertheless, opinion polls were beginning to show a bounce last week and this appears to be continuing.

This afternoon, a new opinion poll from INSA showed the SPD gaining further support and overtaking the CDU/CSU for the first time in many years. If elections were held now, the INSA poll suggests that the CDU would get 30% of the vote, while the SPD would get 31%. This means that Schulz would enter any coalition talks as the leader of the largest party, hence becoming Chancellor.

It also means that a SPD-Green-Left coalition would currently win exactly 50% of seats, so that a government without the CDU/CSU could even be possible. In effect, the SPD has gained 10%-pts of support in past two (weekly) INSA polls, taking votes away from all other parties (see second chart below). Interestingly, the AfD has also suffered a significant decline.

Given that Schulz is relatively new to German politics, a novelty factor may be partly responsible for the jump in the polls. It is far too early to say whether this will endure, given that the election campaign has yet to properly begin. It will also be important to see whether other polls replicate the swing. The SPD has gained support in all recent polls, but these are all a week or more old and do not show the latest jump in the INSA poll. That said, there is no reason to dismiss the INSA poll. It is the newest organization and the only one to be done entirely online, but it (arguably) performed only marginally worse than other polls at the last Bundestag election.

A Schulz-led SPD-Green-Left coalition or a Schulz-led grand coalition would certainly be a huge event in German politics. Such possibilities no longer look like tail risks. A SPD-Green-Left coalition would bias German policymaking towards greater fiscal expenditure and investment, and center-left policies. But, even such a coalition would not mark a dramatic break with the past in many areas and would, we expect, continue Germany’s strong support of the EU and single currency.

In short, "Chancellor Schulz" may be just what Brussels, and to a lesser extent President Trump, ordered.

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knukles's picture

The Morgue, one of the greatest benefactors and provider of "necessary" services to The Establishment are Stunned?

Color me calling Bullshit. 

"Tail Risk" in the parlance of the Street and MSM has become another "Settled Science".  

"Where oh where Opie are they all comin' from?"
"I dunno ma.  I jus dunno."

philipat's picture

Either way, everything stays the same. What is wrong with the German people that they don't want to free themselves from the tyranny of the globalist elities, of which Shulz is a particularly egregious example?

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) philipat Feb 6, 2017 8:03 PM

Because the (((allies))) took over education after they lost the war.

nope-1004's picture

"JPM stunned..."



Live in an alternate reality obviously.  Stay stunned, suits all of us just fine, you idiots.

wildbad's picture

JPM - Just listening to Alex Jones rant about how that globalist company and Goldman Sucks are actively trying to torpedo Trump by pushing up interest rates.

As to this flying fuck Schultz - he is distilled poison. he is an unbridled nightmare. he is what the liberals think Trump will be.

Careful what you wish for. The big sell is on now big time for this slimey shit in the exact periodicals that show trump beheading liberty.

the whole bag of assholes need to be flushed

Déjà view's picture

SPD/Greens...worse than Merkel

Greens and Linke would beg Erdogan for moar...bombed out of their homes huddled masses...

Trump...disolve NATO-now!

Equalize U.S. tariffs to higher imposed German tariffs on U.S. imported goods to Germany...


N0TME's picture

.... or living under a rock.

luckylongshot's picture

Schulz is Merkel with a beard and Germany has no hope of a rosy future under either Schulz or Merkel.

MrsMerkel's picture

I recently met with an old family friendly that lives in an area near Frankfurt that has been heavily impacted by immigration, and he was not shy to hide his dislike of this trend (to put it mildly).  When I suggested that he should vote AfD, if that's important to him, he was appalled and claimed he could never vote for them and will stay true to the SPD.

A big part of the problems is that generations of allegiance to one of the centrist parties is a hard trend to break, and in Germany people are particularly prone to group think (at least in public, what they say in private is a different matter altogether).

Azannoth's picture

The Germans (collectively speaking) are bat-shit-insane, this country is already down for the count, no matter how many rapes/murders/muggings there are Ze Germans will stay the course till it's too late and then (after everything has already been lost)maybe the best we can hope for is Hitler 2.0 - yea the Germans have no future.

drendebe10's picture


 Like blacks supporting the progressive liberal democraps bli dly over and over

dark fiber's picture

And you think SPD will be any better?  They  are worse.

7thGenMO's picture

Mutti Merkel is a closet Commie who sounds like a good Lutheran because her dad was a pastor.  Her plan to make Deutschland an Orwellian state can be implemented by the SPD once it pushes the CDU permanently out of power.

wildbad's picture

very prescient and true

GUS100CORRINA's picture

Imagine that ... under the Merkel reign of Islamic induced domestic terrorism where

the GERMAN PEOPLE have been raped, pillaged and plundered and JPM is shocked????

Albert Einstein once said:

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting a different result.

Clearly, the GERMAN people are NOT insane.

Sturm und Drang's picture

A wee bit slow on the uptake perhaps.

johngaltfla's picture

Just wait until the election gets closer and Merkel gets the Putin surprise as her University records from East Germany AND the University of Moscow (where she received her Communist Party/Comintern certification) are suddenly found in a KGB archive and released to the meida.

The Alarmist's picture

The only problem here is that the perceived successor is Martin Schultz, who is every bit the douche that Frau Merkel is.  Unless AfD upgrades its image and polling numbers, the next round of elections in Germany promises absolutely no change whatsoever, and in fact may lead to retrograde motion (given that Merkel has backpedalled on some of her earlier stances that invited refugees, questions asked).

johngaltfla's picture

True, but I'm sure a lot of intelligence files and university records that were once thought to be "lost" in East Berlin suddenly appear which will destabilize herr Merkel's party drastically. If that happens, the blowback will be severe because it was Merkel's father (as he was a Pastor) who took confessions and confidential conversations with parishioners then turned them into the Stasi if they indicated anti-government feelings or discussed making a break for the West.

Many families were "disappeared" because of her father's actions and that story will be told far and wide soon enough as the election gets closer.

wildbad's picture

I fear that you are right but hope you are wrong.

The public over here is being sold this turd HARD. The media is firmly in the hands of the State and they are testing the water and putting all bets on these two demons.

The Germans really are very conformist, until they are not. Most just want to follow the rules and get along. Things are not bad enough here yet for most Germans to snap out of the slow boil of the destruction of their society at the hands of Merkel and Schultz and their globalist puppet masters.

We need to keep hammering and exposing them. Your analysis of the AfD is right on.

Overdrawn's picture

Schulz is a bigger bastard than Merkel, German people are truely f**ked whoever wins.  I wouldn't be surprised if a new Hitler emerges in the next couple of years over there.

August's picture

I'm a Trump-sceptic, but was all in favor of his harrowing of the Bush-McCain core of the Rethuglican party.

Someone is needed to drive a stake through the heart of the CDU, and pronto; if only Schulz can do it, so let it be done!

The Alarmist's picture

Seriously, dude, the difference between SPD and CDU is negiigible.

nati's picture

Let's not forget this classic quote from the presumptive next chancellor:

"For me, the new Germany exists only in order to ensure the existence of the State of Israel and the Jewish people." --- Martin Schulz

IndyPat's picture

You've got to be kidding.

Vile submission turns my stomach.

MrsMerkel's picture

the 2013 elections features the first ever live televised debate (I think!) between SPD and CDU.  The only topic they seemed to have any disagreement one was whether or note to introduce highway tolls.  Says it all

RiverRoad's picture

Well the old Hitler shot at the banksters and missed thanks to the US.  Maybe the new whatever will correctly finger the globalist banksters and nail them this time.  One can only hope.

False_Profit's picture

The old Hitler was a puppet (along with mussolini) of the vatican globalist bankers...the eu constitution was signed in rome under the watchful eyes of the statue of pope innocent x!

"Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, host for the signing, told European leaders that "never in history have we seen an example of nations voluntarily deciding to exercise their sovereign powers jointly in the exclusive interest of their people, thus overcoming age-old impulses of rivalry and distrust."



How's that all working out???

I'd say it was rather the first time in history that so many sovereign nations voluntarily gave up their sovereignty at one time in allegiance to the Roman church...without even firing a shot...

flaunt's picture

I sense you're correct.

chubbar's picture

I'd be shocked if she wouldn't lose the vote. That worthless fucking cunt is directly responsible for destroying the fabric of German society by bringing immigrant thugs into the country by the trainload.

False_Profit's picture

She did so at the direction of the ruling class of the eu: the vatican...

black pope francis has spoken many times how Islam will save Europe  (yet allows no refugees into the vatican...

When will people open their eyes???

11b40's picture

Couldn't prove it by history.

myne's picture

I actually can't remember the first time I wrote that Merkel was done at the next election. It was a long time ago though. 

No wonder those dumbasses keep flirting with bankruptcy. 

johnconnor's picture

Germans are getting tired of Islamic enrichment and having their youth and women raped and molested on a daily basis!? These guys are so "racyst"!!

RiverRoad's picture

Of course that fucking fat-assesd frump Merkel would lose.  No surprise there.

Omen IV's picture

yes but Schultz is definitley a real scumbag - ask Farage!

Raffie's picture

So when Merkel is out we can count on Germany to MAKE FOOD GREAT AGAIN?

Bring the pork back and kick the Muzzies out.

Invinciblehandaxe's picture

so zee dump germanz didnt get the memo right? schultz is the same satan bitch liking piece of shit just like merkel. okay than. enjoy your your multikillti. stop spreading your muzzies around europe against the will of other countries in europe. keeo the fuckers for yourself. enjoy the cheap euro via which you;ve been pillaging and colonizing europe. there will come a day when you white germans stupid fucks would want to emigrate from your muslim homeland. then we will say fuck you stupid german fuck stay the fuck where you are. we will enact work and travel visas etc. fuck you germanstan. 

COLORFROG's picture
COLORFROG (not verified) Feb 6, 2017 6:07 PM

Arbeit macht frei -

barysenter's picture

Du arbeitest jetzt für den Islam.

False_Profit's picture

Was it over when the Germans bombed pearl harbor?!

He'll no! Who's with me?!


Gott mit uns!!!

knukles's picture

Squished snot, or am I reading that wrong?
And if it's not "Pressed or squished snot", how would one say it?

Would it be a "Zusammengequetscht snot" or a "Snot gedrückt"

Sturm und Drang's picture

Wait for it....(I had to)


wachtamrhein's picture

"Zusammengekritzelter Rotz" would be the expression you mean...

Son of Loki's picture

Lying press (German: Lügenpresse, lit. 'lying press') is a pejorative political term used largely by German political movements for the printed press and the mass media at large, when it is believed not to have the quest for truth at the heart of its coverage.


The alt-right press has named a Danish type pastry after cnn...they are callling it Die Lügenpresse.