US Economic Confidence Surges To Highest Level Ever Recorded By Gallup

Tyler Durden's picture

Another month, another all time high in Americans' confidence in the US economy.

In its latest, January report, Gallup found that Americans' confidence in the U.S. economy averaged +11, the highest monthly average in Gallup's nine-year trend. Some of January's three-day averages also marked new highs in Gallup's tracking since 2008. The index peaked at +19 for the Jan. 21-23 three-day average after President Donald Trump's inauguration and shortly before the Dow Jones industrial average hit a new high.

Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index

January's +11 score marks the third consecutive month the index has been in positive territory. This is a new feat for an index that has had mostly negative monthly measures since its inception, except for January and February 2015. Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index is the average of two components: how Americans rate current economic conditions and whether they feel the economy is improving or getting worse. The index has a theoretical maximum of +100 if all Americans were to say the economy is doing well and improving, and a theoretical minimum of -100 if all Americans were to say the economy is doing poorly and getting worse.

In January, 31% of Americans rated the economy as "excellent" or "good," while 21% said it was "poor," resulting in a current conditions score of +10 -- marking the highest monthly reading for this component since 2008.  The economic outlook component also reached a new high score of +11 in January. This score was the result of 52% of Americans saying economic conditions in the country were "getting better," while 41% said they were "getting worse."

Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index Components

Not surprisingly, the sentiment - as everything else about the US these days - broke down by party lines, with Republicans' confidence soaring by double-digit January. Specifically, Gallup found an immediate improvement in Republicans' confidence in the economy after the November presidential election, and their confidence has only grown since Trump took office. In January, the index rating among Republicans was +27, up 11 points from December's score of +16. Independents' +5 index score in January remained steady from their +3 reading in December.

Meanwhile, on the other end of the spectrum, Democrats' confidence has fallen each month since October, with their index score now at +4 -- their lowest since the aftermath of the federal government shutdown in October 2013.

Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index by Political Party

Overall, confidence remains higher than it was before the 2016 election. While Republicans' January +27 score matches Democrats' October 2016 score, Democrats today are much more positive about the economy than Republicans were before the election. Independents are also significantly more positive now than they were before the election.

* * *

However, despite the largely Republican-driven euphoria, the honeymoon may be starting to fade, and the index's high point has note lasted. The three-day averages have since dipped to smaller single-digit scores, including a +8 average for Feb. 3-Feb. 5.

Gallup's bottom line:

Republicans' improved confidence in the economy upon Trump taking office was perhaps expected, as Democrats enjoyed similar levels of confidence during President Barack Obama's tenure. But with the inauguration confetti now settled, Americans of all political stripes will need to see results of an improving economy to maintain this high degree of confidence, which already appears to be slipping in early February's three-day rolling averages. The promising jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics could be the strong footing Trump needs to maintain this elevated level of economic confidence. Americans may also feel bolstered by the robust Dow Jones industrial average, which hasn't yet lost its recent gains.

And then there is the other observation we made yesterday, namely that when it comes to the capital markets, the correlation between the S&P and yields with Trump's approval rating is almost 1.

In short, while for now the market and consumer confidence still remain euphoric, the first sign that Trump will be unable to deliver, and the divergenve between hope and reality is noted, is when traders can expect the next market correction.

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NugginFuts's picture

Love it! Soft data trumps hard data again! Guess it's time to sell all my JNUG, NUGT and phyzz to go buy that $75k Ford F-150 I've been wanting. 

Delphi_Addiction's picture

The secret is to hire someone who's held a real job for once in his life. If he's had to make payroll and hire someone that's also a plus. 

If he's not a tool of the elite, then you're really on to something. 

LyLo's picture

...  Or we can just up requirements for most entry level jobs to demand college degrees, drop the pay, then claim we can't find any workers and get H1Bs instead. 

If we go trying madness like your idea, what would the shareholders think?

stopthehandouts's picture

Can someone please tell me where I can find what these people are smoking. All I see is more and more vacant commercial real estate.

Kaiser Sousa's picture

like i always said...

take away the "fidence" and what r u left with???

"CON..."

gatorengineer's picture

Even in 2008 / 2009 the "average Joe" that I knew was more confident than they are today.  All I see is Bleak and Fucking Bleak....

Bay of Pigs's picture

Here in Kihei, Maui we have strip malls with empty spaces everywhere. One space at the Kamaole Mall was last occupied in 2003. No joke.

Hohum's picture

Gallup's never wrong, so there's that. Actually it makes sense: high stock market, high confidence.  Americans aren't complicated.

flaminratzazz's picture

Just dont look @ Detroit and all the dead malls, retail destruction, and wages in decline with prices inflating..

other than that it is all great

Sonny Brakes's picture

To answer a survey, my guess is that you need a means of communication. A phone or some other means by which you can be reached. With almost a 100 million people not in the workforce one had to be a little sceptical. I know that I'm done being a thoughtless consumer, but that's just me.

The central planners's picture

How not be confidend with Trumps's goldman sachs team managing the swamp again.

DaBard51's picture

"note lasted"... fix it... hire veteran proofreaders...

Standards we have, alt-right blog readers...

 

 

 

When nine hundred years old you become, look this good you will not.

CRM114's picture

BELIEVE!

You must BELIEVE!

Reality is an illusion.

You aren't really working 80 hours a week at 3 jobs for complete bastards.

aardvarkk's picture

My economic confidence hit its high about 2005 or so.  It's been on a steady downward escalator since then.  I keep wondering what everybody else is looking at that I'm not seeing.

Silver Savior's picture

Yep 2005 was a pretty good year then the slide. I remember the clubs at night being all full.These days you walk in and the only person you see is the bartender with a small trickle of patrons into the night. It's been a deep slide since 2005. The economy sucks.

aardvarkk's picture

Well, and the stupid part is that, aside from a major "ditch" in 2010-2011, my own personal economics have actually been pretty stellar, or at least as good as they could be expected to be given my own foibles.  But my God, what has happened to my friends and family and neighbors and even coworkers.  It's gruesome in some cases.

Seasmoke's picture

2004 for me. But close enough to know these 2017 confidence people are FOOLS.

Stan522's picture

This has been the big reason why the stock market, with not much volume has been going at an upwards trajectory.....

Silver Savior's picture

I have zero consumer confidence. Prices keep rising and jobs still stagnant. My annual 40 cent raise gets devoured before I even get it. I long physical gold and silver I am done!

Txpl9421's picture

We are up 11.  You know, 11.  Its higher than 10.  You know you are rockin' it when it goes to 11.

gatorengineer's picture

Next step is to rip the knob off and run around the room yelling "Puddin"

itstippy's picture

Nigel Tufnel: The numbers all go to eleven. Look, right across the board, eleven, eleven, eleven and...

Marty DiBergi: Oh, I see. And most amps go up to ten?

Nigel Tufnel: Exactly.

Marty DiBergi: Does that mean it's louder? Is it any louder?

Nigel Tufnel: Well, it's one louder, isn't it? It's not ten. You see, most blokes, you know, will be playing at ten. You're on ten here, all the way up, all the way up, all the way up, you're on ten on your guitar. Where can you go from there? Where?

Marty DiBergi: I don't know.

Nigel Tufnel: Nowhere. Exactly. What we do is, if we need that extra push over the cliff, you know what we do?

Marty DiBergi: Put it up to eleven.

Nigel Tufnel: Eleven. Exactly. One louder.

Marty DiBergi: Why don't you just make ten louder and make ten be the top number and make that a little louder?

Nigel Tufnel: [pause] These go to eleven.

flaminratzazz's picture

we wouldn't lie to you.. now go shopping damnit!

Robert Trip's picture

I can feel the surge in economic confidence myself.

Thinking of buying an extra box of Kraft Dinner this month.

MASTER OF UNIVERSE's picture

$2 Quadrillion in USD Dark Pool Derivatives Universe, $20 Trillion in Federal Deficit, $200 Trillion in Unsecured Federal Liabilities, $1.5 Trillion in Federal Student Loans with over half in Student Loan Default, Flat-lined Baltic Dry Index, BIG Box Retail in Chapter 11 Bankruptcy, Projected implosion of Oil per barrel over time, China & Russian Federation massively dumping US Securities, Broke ass Japan buying up US Debt whilst knowing that the USD is poised to crash out of existence?

 

'Confidence' with emphasis on the prefix 'Con' for good measure, twathead.

Silver Savior's picture

In my head I picture a whirlpool spinning and all those fiat paper dollars are in it. 

MASTER OF UNIVERSE's picture

Bad news is that the Tyler(s) have still not hired me to write articles for Z/H-ers, and I'm still looking for employment.

Silver Savior's picture

Why does the economy stink so much? We are supposed to be a super power. 

scv's picture

hhmmm.. why are detroit, chicago, cleveland, bmore, st loui... not rioting and protesting against MrT? they fucking read about the tax cut. fake news never talks about

gatorengineer's picture

Its too cold for the Pavement apes, wait till April / May, you will get your wish...

ReignDeer's picture

In few weeks nobody except genetically adjusted halfwits will be working slave wage entry jobs.

Robert Trip's picture

I think tax CUT just means more heavy bleeding for the middle class.

yellensNIRPles's picture

People are in debt up to their fucking eyeballs, pensions are going up in smoke, unfunded liabilities are off the charts, the purchasing power of currency is falling, wages are stagnant, huge amounts of the population are unemployed, entire states are bankrupt, no one can even think about the derivatives bubble without sweating and basically everything related to all global currency is completely fucked for the 99%, we don't even have real money, and we are staring down the barrel of a Third World War to name just some of the worlds current problems. But people think everything is great?

Sounds about right.

Silver Savior's picture

I agree. And I think everyone should buy gold and silver for when the dollar becomes worth nothing.

Silver Savior's picture

Soon it's going to look like bad parts of Detroit everywhere and I will be able to buy a house for one dollar!

Got The Wrong No's picture

If it gets that bad people will be burning houses down. My house is paid off, so the only reason I would lose it would be because I couldn't pay taxes. I'd set it on fire before I gave it up. If they catch me then put me in jail. I would have a roof over my head and 3 squares a day. If not then the insurance money would pay me replacement value which at that point would be more than resale value. Fucking the system that fucked me seems fair at this point in my life. 

Robert Trip's picture

Even my neighbor Raoul who hasn't been able to find even the most menial work for 4 years can feel the surge in economic confidence.

"Can you feel it Raoul?

Yeah man, I can feel it."

DC Beastie Boy's picture

We're at the point where Wild E Coyote has run off the cliff and is looking down.

Got The Wrong No's picture

I agree, but apparently the people who were polled haven't looked down yet.  

Grandad Grumps's picture

Lol ... understandable if they started recording in 2008.

hedgefunddartthrower's picture

Gallup also predicted a Clinton landslide victory. Maybe the problem is Gallup. The fact that Gallop polls, in this econimic shambles, show the highest consumer confidence numbers ever polled, should lead everyone to question how the F*&^ they come up with their numbers... How many people did they poll? 12? Where did they poll? Trump Towers? Who did they poll? 4th graders. What were the poll questions: Do you feel confident that you will have enough money in your pocket to buy an ice cream today...

The more bs I read from traditional media in the USA, the more ridiculous and unbelieveable the information becomes, as well as the honesty of the people presenting it to the masses.

coast1's picture

cool....I am gonna sell all my silver now, take a loan out on my house, start eating all my stored food, and go shooting and use up all my ammo, and buy a new tv with surround sound, and start buying starbucks coffee, put my water filters on craigslist, open an account in the stock market, get a skool loa and take college courses in liberal arts....ok then....

the best part is, I sored up lotsa whickey for barter, now I can drink it all......liife is sooo good....All you naysayers suck andI dont like you...

 No, I am not MDB, ...just foolin around on ya guys...

If any female paul krugman fans on this site, write me!!  I will marry you...ok sorry, just being a dork..

falak pema's picture

If this trend is the zeitgeist of the coming age; assuming the Duck is the new Messiah of this reset, God-President of the fourth turning; so revelatory of a dominant mindset espoused by the neo-fascists like Bannon; then its spells the tombstone  to the page of the rage of all altermedia sites like ZH who were born defending the opposite mantra, in the wake of 2008 crisis.

You can't be anti-Squid and anti-TBTF bankster construct --- of debt and derivative hyped capitalism-- and then say : its the new page of American capitalism re-instated by the Duck and his new MIC/big Corporate team !

Either the birth certificate of ZH's epiphanic moment represents the anwser to a true dystopian trend of capitalism lost, that needed to be remedied by a "new media messiah".

Or else, ZH is the bastard child of a financial heresy; fake news concocted by a false prophet; that was born in delusioned minds that did not understand how the Oligarchy would evolve and then find the toxic juice to now propose as VIAblE solution further down the timeline-- viable like a new age of Nero--god Emperor and his minions !

"We won, you lose ZH; you are a batshit crazy media-site like the MSM has always said"--- so goes the mocking laughter of the Squid now reverbrating in the corridors of power of neo-Olympus of the new reset.

"Now go fall on your sword." 

"As you can't be a Squid groupie and at the same time sing the doom n gloom reset as the only true viable solution that the Hedge has made its marching song since 7 years!"... you can hear the mockery ringing in the Olympian spheres of new Oligarchy's plutocrats.

Its time to come square fight club, as the other fight club of socialists now challenges the Duck's doctrine in the same "do or die" mindset, that ZH proclaimed at its inception ! The wheel of discontent has changed its orientation to spawn a new messiah of alter-media.

You look like losing your ticket to be the paragon of the alternative solution to America's future!

Who is  "fight club" today and who is the QUISLING for the new Fuhrer of fake change, and real status quo ?

"Everthing must change so that nothing changes !"

MASTER OF UNIVERSE's picture

ditto what he said. Z/H-ers can only serve one MASTER OF UNIVERSE, and not two.

eekastar's picture

Has ZERO connection to the street, the real economy.

It's top-down stats and polls, a corporate government tool.

High time for household polls and surveys: Joe & Jill MAKE an economy while State and Corporations want them to SERVE the economy.

 

pine_marten's picture

Lots of gun shoppers