Consumer Confidence Tumbles As Democrats' "Hope" Plunges Near Record Lows

Tyler Durden's picture

After a couple of months of animal-spirit-inducing exuberance in soft-survey-hope-data, UMich consumer sentiment printed a disappointing 95.7 in Feb (versus 98.0 exp and down from 98.5 in Jan). The biggest driver was a notable drop in 'hope' as Democrats Expectations plunged near record lows.

The Democrat’s Expectations Index is close to its historic low (indicating recession) and the Republican’s Expectations Index is near its historic high (indicating expansion). While currently distorted by partisanship, the best bet is that the gap will narrow to match a more moderate pace of growth. Nonetheless, it has been long known that negative rather than positive expectations are more influential in determining spending, so forecasts of consumer expenditures must take into account a higher likelihood of asymmetric downside risks.

Inflation expectations were mixed - rising in the short-term and dropping in the longer-term - which matches the markets inflation breakeven collapse...


Finally we note University of Michigan's comments that when asked to describe any recent news that they had heard about the economy, 30% spontaneously mentioned some favorable aspect of Trump’s policies, and 29% unfavorably referred to Trump’s economic policies.

Thus a total of nearly six-in-ten consumers made a positive or negative mention of government policies. In the long history of the surveys, this total had never reached even half that amount, except for five surveys in 2013 and 2014 that were solely dominated by negative references to the debt and fiscal cliff crises.

Moreover, never before have these spontaneous references to economic policies had such a large impact on the Sentiment Index: a difference of 37 Index points between those that reported news of favorable and unfavorable policies. When the Sentiment Index was calculated by party affiliation, a nearly identical difference of 40 Index points was found between Democrats and Republicans. These differences are troublesome.

It seems the 'soft' data surge is starting to fade...

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LawsofPhysics's picture

Hyperbole, hope and opinions are fucking irrelevant.  You will either have access to the resources required to continue to do business and survive, or you won't.

prepare for global Wiemar.

Four chan's picture

hope of peole who are not producers is irrelevant,  aka democrats.

Stackers's picture

2,000 Univ of Mich students think Trump will ban the next i-phone

D Nyle's picture

Their sad that all those government EPA and Education jobs are going to be cut

HockeyFool's picture

I am happy they are sad.

GUS100CORRINA's picture

And he should ban the next iPhone ... these guys are a monopoly that needs to be broken up.

Raffie's picture

Their 'HOPE' is nothing more then a DO-WHAT-EVER-U-LIKE lifestyle where EVERYTHING-IS-FREE because we have no boarders.

The biggest problem I see in the democrats is that most have never gone through civil turmoil like other countries have. Their mind is set to think the grass is greener on the other side and even though the SOCIALISM fails in every country just means to them it will not fail here because we are America.

Think say YES TO REFUGEES because they are for the open door concept.

Ask them,

-Do they had doors on their house?

-Are they locked to keep people out?

-Do they open the door and let whoever is outside come in without vetting (seeing who they are) them 1st?

I can tell you that there was many people like them till a refugee killed a close friend or family member and now they are awake and against a open boarder policy.

Its a mindset that they embrace out of ignorance that will give them the best odds to be killed by.


shovelhead's picture

Soros cutting back on his riot funding?

gatorengineer's picture

too cold you gotta take care of the snowflakes... Burning starbucks comming on a nice late March / April evening.

BandGap's picture

Shit, I was hoping for bit more time.

End of March - Brexit. Iran dumps petrodollar. Tax reform and the dumping of Obamacare. Escalation of issues with China and NATO moves.

Definately influencing what goes in the garden this year. Sighting out the rifles and adding to ammo stocks.

Summer of love, not.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Yep.  All the while the red and blue sheep continue to fight each other over what symptoms to treat while ignoring the disease (corruption/cronyism)...

Get your tribe in order, no man is an island.

shovelhead's picture

Where have you been?

Irans been selling oil in yuan for years.

BandGap's picture

But paying a huge fee for conversion of currency via Russia. This would be a direct purchase.

Rich Monk's picture

First: The democrat party = marxist, communist, atheist, gays, transvestites, anti-American, anti-Christian, anti-Western History and values.

Second: Who gives a rat's ass what they think.

Third: Line them up against the nearest wall!

LawsofPhysics's picture

I recently saw a post that had a picture of Lincoln saying "I haven't seen the democrats this angry since we took away their slaves."

Show that to the leftys and watch their heads explode.

corporatewhore's picture

What would Fauxcohantas say?????

shovelhead's picture

"But...but...but...I got anuddah quote!"

HockeyFool's picture

She prefers to be called Lieawatha.

Aloysius Snuffleupagus's picture

Ppssh. Like Lincoln would recognize his party today either.

Hohum's picture

We'll find out if there is a correlation  between debt level and confidence.  I borrow, therefore I am.

FreeShitter's picture

The consumer is being consumed.

corporatewhore's picture

Will global Weimar implement a cashless banking system?

If so, is this the calm before the storm for gold/silver?

Anyone? anyone? Bueller?

BandGap's picture

Some believe we are moving back to the gold standard. One big loop back in time to 1970. Just like everything else, it seems.

corporatewhore's picture

Great article!  Much appreciated as I missed it earlier.  Thank you!

Bryan's picture

I am still having doubts whether PMs are the panacea that so many people think they are, with regard to a monetary crisis.  There are just too many people/banks who are counting on gold to save their wealth, and that makes me nervous.  I am thinking more on the lines of real estate, and even just survival items like food, a water source, shelter, tradeable items.  Gold would not be useful unless it became widely accepted as a medium of exchange, which I think is what gold bugs are counting on.

Obadiah's picture

Bankruptcy of the entire Fed and the Global Cabal, a Deadly Wound  It's what's for dinner and Sir Trump is the one in charge of getting us to the other side.  Ho-li-sheet gonna be a bumpy one ladies!


I mma trademarking this so Step Back... " "Trump - The Turnaround Artist"  TM"


PS  Get ready for the "False Christ" (he'll look just  like look just like one of those actors you've see in the movies... in fact it is written that this false christ will  "Look" just like the Lamb slain, but speaks like the dragon ( Lucifer, our elite's misunderstood savior.) who will in no doubt offer you free shit to "sign up" and follow him as he makes lightning come down from the sky.  BOOM           Rapper's and Rockstars don't have sheeeiiat compared to the Orginal Con-Artist.  Wonder if Cliff High is picking up data of "HIM" commin outta Antartica?



keep the bastards honest's picture

Christ was brown. There is a picture of him on the Jordan lead codices. Doesnt look like a lamb. Think thats noveau religion.

Was against the rabbinical overthrow of the religion and the kicking out of the old godddess (who could turn  into a man for procreation) by the new guy and the  money stuff in the Temple.

Raffie's picture

Been 100's of calms before the storm that never comes because their pockets of deep manipulation.

They are working hard to catch many people off guard and asleep at the switch.

Sucks how often they do this level of illegal activity, YET we do not fully stop at a stop sign we get a ticket and the riot act.

wisehiney's picture

(SIGH)  I miss the old days when the fucking govt mostly stayed out of the way and had very little to do with it.

shovelhead's picture


You must be what...110 years old?

wisehiney's picture

Went without auto insurance for 4 years and health insurance for at least 10. 

There were no 1099's to report your income.

Even from the banks.

Etc etc

BigWillyStyle87's picture
BigWillyStyle87 (not verified) Feb 10, 2017 11:22 AM

I thought it was rich that consumer HOPE plunged immediately after the 2012 election. I dont remember the media talking about that.

nightwish's picture

Liberal 'hope' is a fucking sham, and these leftist fucks should realize this by now. They are so obfuscated and clueless about what they should even be hoping for. What is it, free for all immigration and low wages for all? Fighting and bickering til the end of time until women have the exact equal rights as men do, minority genders are recognized as normallhy as staight people are and blacks achieve the same respectability as whites without ever having to actually earn it? Bullshit world, and it will never get close to normal ever again.

Hohum's picture

So is conservative "hope."  Wishing for a consumption society without debt, thinking we can go back to one earner families and be even richer, praying that everyone is exactly the same, and being a conservative while conserving nothing.

shovelhead's picture


Conservatives have lots of guns. We can fix shit quick if we only could get off our asses.

Maybe they need to push a bit more...

keep the bastards honest's picture

sure stop spending 70% of GDP on war on other people. That money and work and productivity would do wonders for  the USA.

Jack.Lincoln's picture

'normal' is a vaccine for a disease that never existed.
Stop clinging to an antiquated, illusory ideal.

roadhazard's picture

I've come to the conclusion the consumer is on heroin.  I could have sworn it was at an all time high a week ago. This is either fake news or alternative facts.

PitBullsRule's picture

The "Democrats Expectation Index" says it all.  This is just a bunch of bullshit to get the Trump fans all a twitter.

Datafox's picture

I think I read the same thing! So this is the start of the drop right after the peak high.

 The dems out of hopium . Darn!

Let's 'hope' that it's not just because repubs are sucking up the supply. 


Pigeon's picture

Democrat hope plunges because they know sucking the .gov teat is about to end.

vegas's picture

Democrats have expectations?

I Write Code's picture

Whatever the Democrats think of Trump, it is a pale shadow of what I though of a Hildabeast regime.

Robert Trip's picture

"Hope" is for the feeble-minded along with having no intestinal fortitude.

They are the ones that drive those that work hard and wish to succeed, down.

As long as we continue to finance these free-ride social programs nothing will change.

Contribute to society or die in the gutter like they do in the Third world.

redc1c4's picture

OMG!!!  he's STILL President????  we're doooooooooommmmmmmmed!!!1!1!

/moonbats everywhere

Dildocks's picture

Awwww, do democwats need a Binky? Yes they do, yes they do! [sniff, sniff] Oh, democwats need a diaper change! Yes they do, yes they do! Did democwats shit themselves? Yes they did, yes they did! Is Orange Daddy gonna cwean yo ass? Yes he is, yes he is!