"Look Away" - Just 2 Charts

Tyler Durden's picture

Add these two charts to your list of things to totally ignore...

Peak Credit Complacency: US High-Yield Corporate Bond risk is once again below the 400bps level - which in the past has not held long...

h/t @Pierpont_Morgan

And Peak Equty Valuations: The Shiller CAPE is now in the top 3.9% of all occurrences since 1881 - probably a good time to Buy the record highs?

h/t @DonDraperClone

*  *  *

Bonus Chart: As far as complacency in credit markets is concerned, we hope this helps explain the level of cognitive dissonance...

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Bryan's picture

But....we've been presented here with gloomy and doomy charts for many years now.  And yet the market continues trotting along in an upward direction.  In trading, along with patterns, timing is quite important.  I think you are missing that aspect with these charts and your implied conclusions, Tyler.  (I assume you are being sarcastic with the "totally ignore" comment?)

barndoor's picture

No poster blurb is too short to proof-read


CounterPartyVice's picture

No chart is stopping plunge protection team and POMO. Escape velocity in 3,2,1,...

The Saint's picture
The Saint (not verified) CounterPartyVice Feb 13, 2017 2:01 PM

Move along.  Nothing to see here.  Charts will do what charts do.


Pure Evil's picture

I just couldn't get it up for this chart porn. So sad.


Make Erections Great Again.

American Psycho's picture

So, business as usual?

1980XLS's picture

If you mean BTFD, then yes.

American Psycho's picture

Whatever else would an intelligent investor do?  Remember, the trend is your friend. 

TheRideNeverEnds's picture

If you look at the trend of higher highs in the CAPE you will find we are only about half way to the top. Call my when the CAPE is over 60 on its way to 80.

If anything we are still towards the bottom of this move, strap in and get ready for liftoff!

NugginFuts's picture

so why hasn't Japan crashed yet?

bshirley1968's picture

Because we are keeping them afloat as well. 

The Yen and Euro are just proxy currencies of the dollar.

The Yen carry trade is what is fueling this current move up.

scintillator9's picture

Japan's stock market, the Nikkei 225, closed at 38,915 on December 29, 1989.

They have yet to get back to that level, even with negative interest rates, interest rates below 1% for about TWO decades, etc.

Wile E Coyote can stay in the air a long time, until the clouds dissipate below him to reveal what is truly there.

Osmium's picture

I guess that just proves that Japan needs some market rigging lessons.

Pure Evil's picture

They have.

You just won't see it in the daily propaganda films.

Just like Nazi Germany in '45 proclaiming victory just as then sent old men and young boys out to die fighting against the Russian hordes in Berlin.

scintillator9's picture

Perhaps one chart that is missing is how "the market" is more or less tethered to the nominal national debt.


Once the unfunded liabilites come into play, we would easily have DOW 100K or much more.

cro_maat's picture

And who buys the USSA corporate debt?

The FED and other central banks. Therefore DOW 50k or 100k = Hyper Inflation (this is the only way they will solve this rock and hard place riddle).

The Saint's picture
The Saint (not verified) cro_maat Feb 13, 2017 2:04 PM

We'll buy your debt if you'll buy ours.  He he he he.  Nobody will be the wiser.


hotrod's picture

 In a low yield/no yield environment maybe CAPE should be higher than year 2000. A 30 year treasury was paying 6% in 2000. 

If so, we got a long way to go.

youngman's picture

As long as Japan and the EU keep buying our stock and bonds.....whats wrong with that.....they can print the money easier than you and I can make it......I just wonder what we will do when we hit 200 trillion of fiat out there.....does that house in Vancouver cost a billion then...and gold only 1300 an ounce

Pure Evil's picture

Until somebody starts demanding payment in precious metals, in a word, yes.

chubbyjjfong's picture

Stealth printing and distribution to the big boys says this thing is going to moon-shoot before anything else. Corrections are a thing of the past, let alone crashes. It really is different this time.

Pure Evil's picture

Of course they want it to crash, just a matter of when it suits them the best.

They make lots of money subpennying, front-running, and all the other HFT voodoo, but the real money is made crashing the market while deer in the headlights Joe six-pack is scrambling to get out.

It's a game to them. Drive Mr. Market up to nose bleed levels then cash out. Once the blood is literally running in the streets they dive in and buy up all the undervalued stocks and start the game again.

chubbar's picture

I think this time the plan is to just buy all the stocks after the crash, shut down the markets and just own everything.

Consuelo's picture



 The only potential 'fly-in-the-ointment' in that perpetual scenario is that information was nary prevalent or available to see what was really going on behind the curtain, as it has been for the past few years or so.

Tlön Uqbar's picture
Tlön Uqbar (not verified) Feb 13, 2017 1:58 PM

Fucking Dixie Land, Bitchez.

UndertheDRADIS's picture

Rather be here than out there.

BlueHorseShoeLovesDT's picture

Stawk Markets never go down

Hammer823's picture

Frontrunnig the inevitable economic slowdown with a HUGE rally is a thing of beauty.

How do you avoid a correction in stock prices?

Add 3,000 points to the DJIA in mere weeks.

Then, when stocks fall 15%, we're simply right back to the old all time highs from the fall of 2016.

Rigged to perfection.


NEOSERF's picture

When I see other countrys' central banks buying US equities with no plans or ability to sell, then less shares tradeable will create an upward bias as next month those same banks buy those same stocks.  When they keep reconstituting the DOW components towards growth then this is an upward bias.  When you see articles that say 45% of trading is computerized and the point in the programming is to end up with postive gains, then moving the market upwards satisfies the programming logic goal which is an upward bias.  I really don't think there is much that ties the real world to the stock market anymore so buy and enjoy as the point is that people get rich, people retire and people do not riot and write their congressmen to enact banking regulation.  Everything is satisfied with an upward bias.

Wee_littte_dogee's picture

I like up voting these types of comments because I feel it almost certainly guarantees the market will crash (probably not)...


Talk about Schizo...

LawsofPhysics's picture

...at least until the producers of real things shut down.

Then it won't matter how many billions you have.

Wee_littte_dogee's picture

Does't matter; if you go long credit you'll get reamed and if you short it you'll be reamed. Buy Stawks!

Yen Cross's picture

 Silver is sitting right on the 200 day average and the 200 week average.  If that area goes, it's gonna be strong support for another leg higher.

sacredfire's picture

Do you really believe that moving day average crap? I mean, really?

aztrader's picture

As long as NO MARK TO MARKET continues, the BS will continue.  Time to unfold the garbage out there called High Yield and expose it for what it is....Toliet Paper.....

sacredfire's picture

Charts are a complete load of bullshit! Think about it people...

OCnStiggs's picture

OK. I couldn't stand it... I looked.

There are THREE charts. Not two.

Who can you believe nowadays?