Oil BTFD Algo "Triggered" For Fourth Consecutive Week

Tyler Durden's picture

Just as oil was set to test session lows after another massive oil build, sending US crude inventories to all time highs, many were wondering if the same exact algos that struck for the past weeks, would reappear sending oil surging on negative data would hit again. The answer: a resounding yes.

While it is difficult to explain why oil prices are rising, the rally it's coming on very strong volume as someone clearly thinks it's time to buy crude, again, and doing so with gusto.

So, bang on at the 3:45 pm London time, the algo emerged, exactly as in the last four weeks when bearish EIA figures also triggered buying.

Just like it did last week...

 

And the week before...

 

And the week before that...

*  *  *

Earlier:

After API's bigger than expected crude build, DOE confirmed the data with a much-bigger-than-expected 9.5mm build pushing total US crude inventories to a new record high. Along with a large gasoline build, WTI/RBIB prices are tumbling on the print.

API

  • Crude +9.94mm (+3.5mm exp)
  • Cushing -1.27mm (+500k exp)
  • Gasoline+720k
  • Distillates +1.5mm

DOE

  • Crude +9.527mm (+3.5mm exp)
  • Cushing -702k (+400k exp)
  • Gasoline +2.846mm (+500k exp)
  • Distillates -689k (-1mm exp)

DOE confirmed API's major build - the 6th weekly build in a row. Gasoline inventories surged again.

 

Sending US crude inventories to a new record high...

 

And Gasoline inventories to record highs...

 

Crude stocks  have risen +38.5 million bbl in first 41 days of the year compared with 10-yr avg rise of just +14.3 million bbl

As Bloomberg's Javier Blas notes, this time the bulls can not claim that unusually high imports are driving up crude stocks. U.S. refiners last week bought overseas 8.5 million barrels a day, down 881,000 barrels a day from the torrid pace of two weeks ago. On a four-week average, imports are running just 9.9% above last year's same period.

Furthermore, the U.S. exported last week crude oil at a rate of more than 1 million barrels a day -- a record. That's way more than the production of several OPEC members, including Libya, Ecuador, Gabon and Qatar.\

US crude production continues to rise in trend along with lagged rig counts...

 

Bear in mind that the last 3 weeks have seen a fundamentally correct reaction lower in WTI/RBOB prices only to be algo panic bid after...

 

For now crude is bouncing as RBOB crashes....

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Hammer823's picture

And oil is UP after the bearish news once again.

Rigged to perfection.  

https://www.instagram.com/the_rigged_street_journal/?hl=en

NoDebt's picture

My Dow 20,000 hat is now looking more like a call for a modest pull-back than a celebration of a milestone achieved.

Fashion is a very fickle thing.

cowdiddly's picture

Just wait until your Dow hat starts looking like the Debt Clock.

Debt is a very fickle thing...

SubjectivObject's picture

must ........... maintain ........... status ........... quooooooooohhhhh

phatfawzi's picture

in the old days, these numbers would have caused crude to crash $1-$2. 

Hammer823's picture

I remember those old days.  And although i have experienced ample evidence of market rigging since the 1960's, the heavy handed control that has existed since 2009 makes the traders of the past blush.  At least then, there was a decorum to it.  Today, no effort is made to hide the rigging of oil and stock prices.  The institutions simply don't care anymore.  That's why bad has become good. Because it has to be in order for them to push prcies where they want. The market isn't irrational longer than you are solvent, it's rigged longer than any bear can be solvent.

fockewulf190's picture

Soon we shall see a news story break, usually happening once a year, in which one random trader is sacrificed to the SEC or some other regulatory agency, to give the impression that the "rules" actually exist and are being enforced.

After the crowd watches the public execution, it's back to making money hand over fist...until next year's tribute.

phatfawzi's picture

and we have lift off, 

 

just buy the fucking dip.

voxale's picture

WTI is trading pretty firm considering this bearish FAKE NEWS. 

RogerMud's picture

interesting use of the word 'tumble'

shankster's picture

Good! Now drop the damn gas prices.

LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD's picture
LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD (not verified) shankster Feb 15, 2017 12:14 PM

Regarding the below spammer, now too busy trying to make a living spamming - no time for trading:

Would someone PLEASE sign up for ShepWave's $39/month scam? He desperately wants to move out of his Mom's basement but he lost all of his money using his daily "nailed it again," "time stamped," trading calls. Once he starts earning enough to move out of his Mom's basement maybe he'll stop spamming ZH?

He registered the following spam accounts on ZH to promote his scam, giving himself thumbs ups, commenting between his spam accounts, pretending to be multiple people praising ScamWave. - 4Xleverage, AliSONY, Babs.St.Louis, Billy G, Chi Juan, Dr.Carl, Dr.Strangelove, Dreedle, ErikE, FemDayTrader, FRLEPU, Heddgess, hedgesofnight, Irvingm, jasony, John Beau, Josephuskek, KanSass, KC Spike, lostinhedge, MadhyaBharatx, Marilee, MexInvest, MikeM54, Miss Lou, Mon T, P Christmas Carole, Penny Trader, Pinky and the Brain, PUNE, RoBERTAZ, RonnieM, RudolPHDs, Saneesh, SlothHedge, Sonya B59, Stan Your Man, StevieTexie, Timming, TrumpRally, Van G, Virginia Wooolf, wisetrader224, xantippa, and zeroedgesd

hedgesofnight's picture

I think these charts are great. but what is the value in any future predictions.  That is why I am grateful for those of you on here who introduced me to shepwave.  They predicted this exact move in crude oil to the tee. Their gold and equity analysis and trade calls are equally as impressive. 

 

Plus at least they show past calls through time stamped charts to prove their own abilities.  Bout time some good analysts emerge.  Thanks ZH.

https://t.co/f3mU9N8rc4         is the link I got for their charts.  Good stuff.  

 

punkster's picture

First of all when ZH uses WTF and Buwwaaaahhhh that is not any kind of analysis or predictions.  That is just playing into the idiocy on this board.

 

Secondly yes Shepwave is probably the only legitimate analyst left on wall street. That is why they left Goldman. But there are no real traders on ZH anymore. Just look at the comments.  They all think the markets are rigged. Which is true, but saying that over and over again is a sign that those who say that are not making money and in the case of Zerohedge readers are FLAT BROKE!. 

NoDebt's picture

Hey, easy, chief.  Some of us enjoy the idiocy on this board.

If you treat anything you read here as investment advice that's not our problem.  It's yours.

If you want investment advice, read Gartman's newsletter and do the opposite.  Or just buy the fucking dip (if there is ever another dip to buy).  THAT'S investment advice.

 

LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD's picture
LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD (not verified) punkster Feb 15, 2017 12:15 PM

Punkster - self described as "surfer girl" and member for 1 week, 4 days, and a HUGE SpamWave fan already! Just one more of MomsBasementWave's spam accounts.

MomsBasementWave registered the following spam accounts on ZH to promote his scam, giving himself thumbs ups, commenting between his spam accounts, pretending to be multiple people praising ScamWave. - 4Xleverage, AliSONY, Babs.St.Louis, Billy G, Chi Juan, Dr.Carl, Dr.Strangelove, Dreedle, ErikE, FemDayTrader, FRLEPU, Heddgess, hedgesofnight, Irvingm, jasony, John Beau, Josephuskek, KanSass, KC Spike, lostinhedge, MadhyaBharatx, Marilee, MexInvest, MikeM54, Miss Lou, Mon T, P Christmas Carole, Penny Trader, Pinky and the Brain, PUNE, Punkster, RoBERTAZ, RonnieM, RudolPHDs, Saneesh, SlothHedge, Sonya B59, Stan Your Man, StevieTexie, Timming, TrumpRally, Van G, Virginia Wooolf, wisetrader224, xantippa, and zeroedgesd

NoWayJose's picture

Just like stocks - inventories keep getting recorder and recorder...

It's a sign that people are hurting - so Trump and the Do Nothing Congress might want to actually do something about that before 2020!

RealistDuJour's picture

Jebus, Zero, you're as bad as Obambam refusing to say "Islamic Terrorism".  C.U.S.H.I.N.G.  Time to update the header already...

angry_dad's picture
angry_dad (not verified) Feb 15, 2017 10:52 AM

The new pipeline can't be finished fast enough to hide the suprlus crude products

the usa needs dozens more 1,000 mile long storage tanks to keep prices high

eventually, we will see circular pipes to nowhere

Hohum's picture

Inventories up about 45 million barrels year over year.  Imports certainly more than that:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCESTUS1&f=W

Soul Glow's picture

I heard Mnuchin wrote that algo.

angry_dad's picture
angry_dad (not verified) Feb 15, 2017 11:06 AM

soros needs a new industry to short

 

Pasadena Phil's picture

Maybe ZH is missing the boat on oil. The US is now fully engaged in this market retaking control of global oil prices. Clearly, US shale has demonstrated lasting power at price levels that put OPEC and the international integrateds in dire straits. All US shale needs to do is keep producing and there is nothing the rest can do to re-establish the profit margins they have been dependent on for so long. Now their empires of non-productive illiterate parasites are collapsing. It's called "draining the swamp". We won't need to glass over the ME. Just take away their sole means of financing their terrorism. WINNING!

luri's picture
luri (not verified) Feb 15, 2017 11:14 AM

OK, ONE MORE TIME!.....THE REASON FOR THE "LEVITATION" IN OIL IS THAT THE SAUDI ARAMCO IPO REQUIRES THAT WTI IS ABOVE 50$......IF IT DROPS BELOW, THE IPO WILL BE PULLED.

SO THE BANKS ARE DOING WHAT THEY DO BEST - RIGGING MARKETS AND DOING THE HEAVY LIFTING ON PRICES......

 

 

PopTheBear's picture

Yes this is very plausible. Has this info been communicated or would u call it an educated guess?

mo mule's picture

This is the Fed's PPT blatantly at work here.  They have unlimited funding. They know or are afraid of oil falling and the stock falling right along with it.  Oil should be trading right now at $14.00 barrel.  That's the low on my fib chart.. I think it will hit it at some point. With this run up by these algo's I grow more certain of it each time they knock it up.  The crash will be bigger and faster some day. At least it should crash, but then again, like I said the PPT has your tax dollars to back them.  lol

cn13's picture

March heating oil has hit the 1.6100-1.6200 level 8 times over the past 5 weeks, twice this week alone but it holds every time.

I have never seen anything like this ever.  Obviously rigged but one day the rug will be pulled.

Funds are record long, it is just a matter of time.

Bam_Man's picture

What is the NY Fed going to do with all this $53/bbl oil they will soon own?

daedon's picture

Beats owning Federal Reserve Notes.

A. Boaty's picture

Maybe we could carry small, coin-shaped containers of petroleum and use them like cash.

Doug Eberhardt's picture

We got long DWT 2 days ago at 22.90 and it is now 22.95 after 2 days of more bad news for oil. It's a bear of a trade but one I think that will pay off soon. 

Also long JNUG for you gold bugs. Maybe one more pullback like today to 1220 in the cards if the dollar moves over 101.50 but that's it. Off to the races. Trump wants and needs the dollar lower. 

Also notice UVXY is showing some signs of fear in the market for the first time. It's been beaten to a pulp as it always is, but we got long at 18.75 today and looking for 10%+ soon. A 30% move if we can get the futures to retreat after 5 days of record days isn't out of line here. 

 

 

yogibear's picture

In this CB rigged market software only allows limited downside. Crashes no longer occur.

yogibear's picture

CBs own everything. Like Venezuela. Nationalized.

Dragon HAwk's picture

Derivative Derived Reality

BurningBetty's picture

Nobody seems to understand this...they simply can't let the markets fall no matter how shitty the data is. If the dominos start tipping over, the entire house of cards and bubbles will come down. Imagine all that debt that will be defaulted on...why do you think they got all these algos everywhere if it wasn't important to maintain status quo?

pndr4495's picture

Algo firms - HFT firms - go home flat or as close to flat every night. I would be interested in knowing how often, if ever, algo/HFT firms have been issued margin calls by either ICE or CME. Since they have most favored customer status, my guess is not even once. So - RISK FREE trading for a select few while it is RISK FILLED trading for everyone else. This is referred to as the lawful price discovery mechanism now.