Caterpillar Records 50 Consecutive Months Of Declining Global Sales

Tyler Durden's picture

As Caterpillar's stock hits multi year highs, its operations continue to sink.

With sellside firms suggesting that CAT should be valued on 2018, and in some case 2019 results, Caterpillar shareholders have been happy to comply with the recent euphoria, sending the stock soaring 18% since the Trump presidential victory, and back to multi-year highs on hopes a Trump's infrastructure push would make excavators great again, coupled with expectations that an infrastructure push out of China will result in a rebound in the company's profits. For now, however, operational woes at the heavy industrial manufacturer continue, with yet another month of declining global sales.

To be sure, there was a glimmer of hope for CAT out of Asia, where retail sales continued the rebound after posting positive gains in the prior five month, surging 26% in January, the biggest annual gain since July 2012. This however was offset by continuing declines in North America, the EAME and Latin America regions, which declined by 8%, 13%, and 29%, although all regions posted a modest rebound from December Y/Y numbers.

However, as has been the case for the past 4 years, it was on a global blended basis, where the headwinds facing CAT refuse to go away, and after the latest, January, decline in retail sales of -8%, we find that the company has not reported a single monthly uptick in sales for record 50 consecutive months, starting in December 2012, a period which is now 2.5x longer than the far more acute 19 month drop observed during the post-financial crisis period.

Source: Caterpillar

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A. Boaty's picture

A barometer for the global economy?

BaBaBouy's picture

Butt Butt Butt ... Paper Tractor Futures are UP ~ ~ ~

YouJustMadeTheList's picture
YouJustMadeTheList (not verified) BaBaBouy Feb 17, 2017 10:47 AM

"There are two kinds of people in this world. Those with guns, & those who dig. You dig" (oh wait!)

Never One Roach's picture

"...multiyear highs...."


Sounds about right given the crazy times we live in. And yet energy companies are still 30% to 80% lower then their 52 week highs and many have gone bankrupt.

"Change you can believe in" .... for some....bankruptcy for others .....

i will say my neighbor who manages a fairly large department store says apparel sals are way down both brick and mortar and online so retail numbers for this quarter should be [bullishly] low.

Ghost of PartysOver's picture

CAT is a case study in stock valuation stupidity.   All about the Silicon based trading units and the carbon based trading units to follow without question.

Hal n back's picture

spin off Caterpillar of Asia.

Saucy-Jack's picture

Just a dead cat bounce...

Raffie's picture

Well when you build products in Fantasy Land, it really lowers the cost and in turn the stocks look great.

I mean Fairies and Elves work for free last I seen.

Good buy Cat you weird gender neutral, paper skinned company.

Buck Johnson's picture

They are papering over a slowing world economy because they know it would take years if not 10 years at least to get the world economy back to not slowing.


LawsofPhysics's picture there stock vaulation goes to the moon!



Bryan's picture

"As Caterpillar's stock hits multi year highs, its operations continue to sink."


Ummm... something doesn't seem right in that statement.  Cognitive dissonance is setting in fast.  /s

1stepcloser's picture

Someone is gonna have to dig mass graves with Cat equipment.... Bullish

cowdiddly's picture

Sales? We don't need no steenkin sales.

VD's picture

so when CAT has a quarter with zero sales, their stawk should hit infinity.

NoDebt's picture

That's what I was thinking.

EmmittFitzhume's picture

Sure apply Calculus to stocks now! It may be the best way to get a value in this paradox of a world.  Lol

Kayman's picture

Cat has hit a saddle point. The highest of highs and the lowest of lows. 

onewayticket2's picture

FLASHBACK:  obama cites CAT as the posterboy for his "recovery"

FreeShitter's picture

So fucking bullish.

Seasmoke's picture

February 2016. Every stock chart goes straight up to the right since then. Mr. Yellen needs to answer for this fraud.

blown income's picture

Cat dealer in Lake Charles LA yard full of equipment was leased for 1 pipeline  project that had been completed.Has To Be 100 MILLON OR More IN Equipment collecting dust 







Kayman's picture

If you want to see how much used Iron is in inventory go to:



Swamidon's picture

Cat has the worst management in the world and the Jap products are much better.  Maybe they'll get some mercy business when the wall is built.

Atomizer's picture

Roger that, even Kobelco out preformed them. The stupid software monitoring maintenance for aftermarket sales shot them in the foot. When you shutdown a construction site for five days on a part in back order, heads ar going get chopped. 

kahplunk's picture

I do know noone is buying Cat Graders as they switched there controlls to a joystick. John Deer has a much better product line hands down. I should know 20 years on a Grader.

Kayman's picture

Lots of brave talk, but as Cat sales people are always taught to say to a prospective customer:

"So if you died tomorrow what would you like to leave your widow, a D8 or a TD25?"

The equipment market says it all, used Cats hold their value. Deere John, and all the other wannabees are much better than they used to be, but they are still in second place.

By the way, I own Cat, but other brands too.  

Razor Burn'd Capitalist's picture

What that guy said! 


Cat's still meow.


Let me share a hint here...Golbal mining ops are moving to IOT like yesterday..shits already budgeted and on PO's waiting for some politics ( ie Trump's Tax Break) Cats the meow always willbe....sure smaller ops will always use Deere on mid size civil ops and they're legit Cat's going through a "change" money already knows whatthe change will be and the rest of the market is going to be playing catch up...


Biggest share holder on the books: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation......ponder that

Hal n back's picture

we can save a fortune when we hire mexicans to build the wall-a win win for the US and Mexico.


Atomizer's picture

That would take us back to 2012. It was all fun and games until the stimulus program dried up during porch monkey's first four years. 

dogismycopilot's picture

That's a lot of oil filters they will need to sell.

homericninjas's picture

They also just broke the big much ado made about promise to build the new headquarters in downtown Peoria. They are packing up executive management (around 300) and moving to Chicago hahahahahaha. Laying off left and right and moving the upper crust to a much cheaper place to live hahahahahha. Mother fuckers just sticking the factory workers nose in it....i'll be surprised if the factory doesn't burn soon. They are being treated to a "smooth" transition by the locals. Epic 1% bullshit.

post turtle saver's picture

they already came thiiiiiis close to packing up shit entirely and leaving IL for Texas back in the Rick Perry days... which without IL bending over and taking it without lube they would have done exactly that...

Vlad the Inhaler's picture

But Trump says we are going to rebuild America.  Chirp, chirp, chirp...

south40_dreams's picture

Wall Street is making money. All is fine

boomer888's picture

CAT stock almost at all time high. Shows you this market is detached from fundamentals

shortandcaught's picture

Maybe kubota or some cheap chinese copy took up the slack. 

sinbad2's picture

You're right, decreased demand and competition.

Cat is like the Bentley of heavy equipment, the best there is, but who can afford a Bentley.

yogibear's picture

Fundamentals don't work anymore when you have the central banks manipulating prices by providing free money to it's banks and to heggies.

If rates ever started rising it would kill ingnorance.

DosZap's picture

CAT stocks and sales are THE leading indicator for the entire global const industry, not just the USA.

Sonny Brakes's picture

There'd be plenty of work for earth moving equipment if only the work of draining a particular swamp could be green-lighted, the swamp drained, and its contents buried. When is that shovel ready project going to be given the go ahead? It costs a lot of money to keep this heavy equipment idle and on standby.

MrBoompi's picture

EPS only matters if the stock pays dividends.  Even then, dividends are only paid out after other corporate expenses have been spent.  If we ever get a big infrastructure spending bill through Congress, maybe someone can watch for the insider trading on Cat stock.  

Games Without Frontiers's picture

Just create futures contracts for heavy equipment and viola, problem solved! Actual demand can be an afterthought. A paper claim to build  some piece of equipment somewhere.