France's Muslim Demographic Future

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Yves Mamou via The Gatestone Institute,

  • France's Muslim population could quickly grow to close to 15-17 million, but no one can know precisely unless the law prohibiting the official collection of ethnic data is changed.
  • These figures do not take into consideration the Muslim population that immigrated to France from North Africa in the 1960s and early 1970s. There are a few million of them -- nobody knows how many exactly. For demographers, their grandchildren and great-grandchildren are not regarded as immigrants anymore. These Muslims are, rather, integrated into statistics as French citizens born of French parents. They are Muslim, but under the statistics radar.

From time to time, France's National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee) offers a glimpse of the ethnic composition of French society. The study, "Being born in France to an immigrant parent" (Être né en France d'un parent immigré), published in February 2017, is one of them.

Like few other glimpses, the Insee study offers a partial view of the ethnic composition of the French population. A statistical breakdown -- with the answer to the perennial question: how many Muslims in France? -- would be perceived as discriminatory and outrageous. Given France's "integration model," nobody should dare identify people by their origins, religion, color of skin and so on. A Frenchman is a Frenchman, whatever the color of his skin or his religion, and any measurement of the sub-Saharan population -- for example, their level of education, that of their children, the type of jobs their parents are doing, how many times they go to mosque or if they have spent time in prison -- is illegal, discriminatory and racist. Sub-Saharan populations must disappear in aggregate data about French people.

The study, however, provides some telling information. In 2015, 7.3 million people born in France had at least one immigrant parent (11% of the population). Of these 7.3 million people, 45% are of European origin, most of whom are children of immigrants who arrived in France from Spain (8%) or Italy (12%) as early as the 1930s, or from Portugal in the 1970s onwards. One can assume, although it is not written in the study, that these people are of Christian origin.

Another group is composed of Africans. 42% of the 7.3 million children born in France to an immigrant parent are of African background, mainly North Africa. They came from Algeria (15%), Morocco (11%), Tunisia (5%) and sub-Saharan Africa (11%). Although it is also not specified in the study, it would seem that the great majority are Muslim.

Another group, children from Turkish migrant families, represent 4% of the 7.3 million. These people are classified as Asian; they are not included in the African and Muslim group. Most of these Turks are also presumably Muslim.

A conclusion therefore would assume that 46% of the descendants of immigrants are Muslim and 45% are Christian. The remaining 9% are from East Asia or the Americas.

A new study from France's National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, "Being born in France to an immigrant parent," provides some telling information on the ethnic composition of French society.

Criticizing the limited data of this study, Michèle Tribalat, a French demographer, published some personal conclusions in Atlántico, a news website. First, Tribalat expressed her regrets "not to have the population figures of persons of foreign origin for two generations". But, she said, it is not so difficult to compile it one's self.

"If we add the two generations (immigrants and children of immigrants), this gives a total of 13.5 million, or 20.4% of the population. Thus, we have slightly more than one inhabitant out of five of foreign origin, across two generations, in 2015".

Asked by Gatestone how she came to the 13.5 million figure, she replied:

"Very simple. I added the 2015 migrant population (6.2 million) to the Insee's 7.3 million children of immigrants, and it came to 13.5 million."

In her Atlántico article, Tribalat maintains that more important than the 2015 data picture, is the growth-rate that led to the 2015 figure. Tribalat calculated her own estimates of this growth, with starting points in the years 1986, 1999 and 2011, coming up with figures of a stunningly fast growth for the number of migrants over two generations: the 13.2 million migrants of 2015 (20.5%; 300,000 that are "missing" are from French overseas territories), were 12.1 million four years earlier and 9.8 million in 1999. In other words, 19.2% in 2011 and 16.8% in 1999. The population of French persons of foreign origin would therefore have increased, when looking at two generations, by 9% between 2011 and 2015 alone.

For the same period, French children born in France to parents born in France increased by only 2.6%, writes Tribalat.

Consequently, France's population is increasing significantly only because of immigration. But which immigration? Christian or Muslim? Tribalat continues:

"I showed that the annual average rate of increase of immigrants was almost zero between 1975 and 1999. But it is not the same story from 1999-2015. ... The population of sub-Saharan origin is the one that grows more quickly. In four years (2011-2015), looking at two-generations (immigrants and children of immigrants), the sub-Saharan population seems to have increased by 43%. This population is extremely young. In 2015, 80% of the children of sub-Saharan immigrants are under 25 years of age". (Author's emphasis)

These conclusions are confirmed by another Insee study, "Demography of the descendants of immigrants" (Démographie des descendants d'immigrés), published in 2014.

"The Turkish and sub-Saharan African population is growing at an extremely rapid rate (which could lead to a doubling in less than 10 years if this continues).... The total fertility rate of women born in Turkey is approximately 3, as it is for women born in sub-Saharan Africa. It is closer to 3.5 for women born in North Africa, while it is only 2 for women born in Europe, especially in France."

In other words, if the Muslim population of France can be estimated at around 6 million today, it could grow to 12 million by 2020-2025.

This figure does even not take into consideration the Muslim population that immigrated to France from North Africa in the 1960s and early 1970s. There are a few million of them -- nobody knows how many exactly. They became French very early, and for demographers, their grandchildren and great-grandchildren are not regarded as immigrants anymore. These Muslims are, rather, integrated into statistics as French citizens born of French parents. They are Muslim, but under the statistics radar.

France's Muslim population could quickly grow to close to 15-17 million, but no one can know precisely unless the law prohibiting the official collection of ethnic data is changed.

These questions are not spoken about openly in the fierce pre-election presidential debate raging in France. The question is not politically correct. But in these times of expanding Islamism, they weigh silently in favor of Marine Le Pen.

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Faithdefender's picture

Imam tells Muslim migrants to 'breed children' with Europeans to 'conquer their countries' and vows: 'We will trample them underfoot, Allah willing'

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) Faithdefender Feb 21, 2017 6:06 AM

George Soros tells them the same thing.

Le Pen wins, it's a slam dunk.

Written all over her chart, destiny for her.

CuttingEdge's picture


France's Muslim population could quickly grow to close to 15-17 million, but no one can know precisely unless the law prohibiting the official collection of ethnic data is changed.

Someone pointed out the other day that +40% of children born in France last year were tested for sickle cell (i.e not Caucasian).

Maybe the idiom "breeding like rabbits" should be changed to something a tad more 21st century? Or would that be deemed waycist?

philipat's picture

The serious question is, is it already too late? These people are already in these countries as a result of Government policies by prior administrations and they are breeding like flies and have NO intention to integrate. Realistically, since many were already born in Europe, it is impossible to kick them out. So perhaps it is already too late?

That makes me really sad because I love France and in particular the rural French way of life. How could France have destroyed itself in this way in less than 2 generations? Socialism strikes again.....

Excuse me socialist asshole Governments; I don't want to be Muslim, I don't want Europe to become Muslim, I don't want my wife and daughters in particular to become Muslim. And it is MY Europe. When will the peoples of Europe finally wake up to the fact that they have been sold out by their "elites" for the sake of the NWO Agenda which seeks to destroy national borders and cultures.

armageddon addahere's picture

France is already gone. It has a big enough Muslim minority to swing any election. In 50 years or less it will be officially a Musliim country. See Mark Steyn for details.

BabaLooey's picture

Le Pen.........'s

Le Fini~

new game's picture

alah for prez? winning, fuking hopeless. i want to die before i give in to these dogs...

Laddie's picture

It’s Just a Cohencidence

Israel Officially Aids 3rd World Invasion

So it is clear that the Jews understand—correctly—that a mass Third World invasion will destroy their country, and they are very clear and open about this fact.

Nonetheless, at the very same time, they are actively funding and aiding a mass Third World invasion of Europe—knowing full well that this will destroy Europe.

This overt hypocrisy cannot be a coincidence: it is the result of a malicious, deliberate policy, designed to destroy Europe and Europeans, while ensuring that Israel remains racially pure.

Professor Kevin MacDonald’s ‘The Culture of Critique’ Reviewed emeritus professor of psychology at California State University - Long Beach

It is often said that when the old immigration policy was scrapped in 1965, scarcely anyone knew, and no one predicted, that the new law would change the racial makeup of the country. Prof. MacDonald disputes this, arguing that this had been the objective of Jewish groups from the beginning.

"The strengthening of multicultural or diverse Australia is also our most effective insurance policy against anti-Semitism. The day Australia has a Chinese Australian Governor General I would feel more confident of my freedom to live as a Jewish Australian."
--Miriam Faine, editorial committee member of the Australian Jewish Democrat

snowbird's picture

Ditto for Canada.

One out of two houses sold in Toronto are to immigrants, and the Trudeau government is committed to increase immigration, particularly from muslim countries.

Canada has been at the forefront of the globalist experiment and will suffer the consequences down the road.

Must be the cold.

East Indian's picture

Warning! Dont click the link. It is Our dear old MDB and his site!

Oldrepublic's picture

I posted this yesterday regarding the true figure for the Paris region:

The Sailer blog from Taki had a French language chart which shows a much higher figure for Paris, called Ile de France,with a figure of 73% of newborns being African, and Muslim

Panic Mode's picture

As the educated people always think they are kind, understanding, and open minded. I suggest the french women go and marry them and prove me wrong.

sarz's picture

"Imam tells Muslim migrants to 'breed children' with Europeans" 

That's odd. The 'imam' sounds like he's straight out of Herzliya. Reminds one of an earlier Jewish project, the breeding of Irish slave women with Africans in the Caribbean for disease resistance and work capacity. That's how you get a Colin Powell with Jewish values. 

PS: The linked article helpfully tells us:


  • Sheikh Muhammad Ayed gave the speech at Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem
Omen IV's picture
This is what the Iman knows: The average IQ in the EU is destined to fall dramatically Biological fallout from 50 generations of first cousin marriages "The massive inbreeding in Muslim culture may well have done virtually
irreversible damage to the Muslim gene pool, including extensive damage
to its intelligence, sanity, and health. According to Sennels, close to half of all Muslims in the world are inbred.
In Pakistan, the numbers approach 70%. Even in England, more than half
of Pakistani immigrants are married to their first cousins, and in
Denmark the number of inbred Pakistani immigrants is around 40%. The numbers are equally devastating in other important Muslim
countries: 67% in Saudi Arabia, 64% in Jordan, and Kuwait, 63% in Sudan,
60% in Iraq, and 54% in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. According to the BBC, this Pakistani, Muslim-inspired inbreeding is
thought to explain the probability that a British Pakistani family is
more than 13 times as likely to have children with recessive genetic
disorders. While Pakistanis are responsible for three percent of the
births in the UK, they account for 33% of children with genetic birth

The risks of what are called autosomal recessive disorders such as
cystic fibrosis, spinal muscular atrophy is 18 times higher, and the
risk of death due to malformations is 10 times higher.

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) Feb 21, 2017 6:06 AM


Swamp Yankee's picture

The matrix has you:  France has no future. 


(sorry, Neo. Goes for most of Europe)

Bytor325's picture

Oui oui, lets throw open our borders to low IQ savages, what could go wrong

HenryKissingerChurchill's picture

lets throw open our borders to low IQ savages, what could go wrong

-Kalergi plan (miscegenation into low IQ brown mongrels) / also Hooton plan

-George Soros leaks on the Merkel plan

-Barbara divörsity Lerner Spectre
"I think there is a resurgence of anti-Semitism because at this point in time Europe has not yet learned how to be multicultural. And I think we are going to be part of the throes of that transformation, which must take place. Europe is not going to be the monolithic societies they once were in the last century. Jews are going to be at the centre of that. It’s a huge transformation for Europe to make. They are now going into a multicultural mode and Jews will be resented because of our leading role. But without that leading role and without that transformation, Europe will not survive." ~ Barbara Lerner Spectre

Nothing to see here, it is just a plan to turn europe into a future race of mongrel Jew-worshippers...

are we there yet's picture

France is doing much more harm to itself than the Germans did in the previous two world wars. That makes the last few French leaders more harmful than Hitler to the French identity and culture. The French used to be a beautiful and rich culture. Now......some nice museums of what they once were.

DeeZ_nutZ's picture

Pretty soon the call "fuck her right in the pussy" will become a blazing realituy for zee french.  Give up your weemeen, you pussies, you don't know what to do viz zem.  Sexy time is coming to France - spring time for Muslims, Autumn for Christians. 

Feel the burn, politically correct cunts!

Panic Mode's picture

Yeah, and mainstream french news will look like today porn sites. Well at least no more fake news and we will get real porn.

Kefeer's picture

Anyone who enjoys watching others have sex is a very sick individual.  AKA: A pervert engaging in perversion.  Sadly - it seems that most men and many women are engaging in this abnormal and destructive behavior.

indygo55's picture

And yet there it is. They want it and they do it. I suppose if they had something else more worthwhile like a career or a good job and a strong family they wouldn't, so what does that tell us? 

Sandmann's picture

French papers get State subsidy

Joe A's picture

Statistics are as good as the data that is collected to form the basis for these statistics. "Statistics don't lie", they say. They do when the data they are based on is twisted. You can fill Europe with all the Africans and Asian you want, then these continents are still full of Africans and Asians while Europe will be with less Caucasians. I find that policy rather racist. Sounds like part of a plan really. Van Coudenhove-Kalergi plan, that is.

sankol's picture

Wherever Muslims cross 10% of a population, they start acting up. Historical norm. There is no such thing such as moderate Islam. It is a violent political cult wrapped up in a cloak of religion.

Kefeer's picture

You are correct that there is no such thing as a moderate Muslim; however when it comes to religion everyone has one in it broadest definition.  What is religion really?  A set of principals that one uses to determine what is morally right or wrong and violate it when convenient, change with the cultural winds and imposing that view or bias on others either directly or indirectly.

Sandmann's picture

much smaller than get 10% across a country you get 80% in some parts of your country

sankol's picture

You are very much correct, I was only being generous by using the most conservative figure as I could. In reality, it takes as little as 3-5% for them to suddenly start asserting their authority.

Xena fobe's picture

Any ethnicity at 10% will assert it's power if not expected to assimilate.

homonohumanus's picture

Indeed Occidentals are thick... Damned "we" lost constantinople, the Kosovo. The ratio Christians+minorities / Muslims is crumbling almost everywhere... (Iraq, Lebanon, etc.) and not only thanks to natality...

Those people see us as white Christians, forget your self decided atheism or whatnot, History reads only one way on the matter: they are in a conquest, they are in the long game, they dont give a fuck about us or our values.


Thank god for the sickle cell.

soniii's picture

wonder why we have an useless socialist government... you just can't do anything in France without tons of protest, imagine talking and reforming immigration, they already rioting about anything touching ghettos, things just won't change without Le pen im afraid.. 

HoosierHilly's picture

Charles Martel is rolling in his grave.  Took them 1285 years but the Muslims have finally taken Gaul.

fjcruiserdxb's picture

Wonder why posters keep talking about the Kalergi Plan. I dont think muslims figure into their plans at all. It is rather the opposite.

Kranky's picture

France is becoming no more than a raddled old trollop with dross hiding beneath her torn, dirty skirts. Is it too late for her? Time will tell.

Sandmann's picture

France can be vicious - Croix de Feu - and other such "blasts from the past" are never far away

wesson's picture

michèle Tribalat is well known to have turned far right anti-immigrant propagandist. All his colleague now state her work is now too biaised to be taken seriously. She's a militant.


Even after the Nice slaughter, the #1 concern of French citizen was Jobs. Immigration issues coming at the 7th position, far after many other pure economic issues. 


This whole thing is a bag of BS.

homonohumanus's picture

That is bullshit and smear campaign from the media...
The institution called "L'INSEE" just confirmed that her estimations were sound and her work was in fact serious and pretty much impartial...

Whatever they dislike they tagged as far right, there are a lot less willing to give credit to the far left for its lacking and offenses and a lot more numeerous crimes... as for you... you are quite obvious I would say...


Not My Real Name's picture

"Even after the Nice slaughter, the #1 concern of French citizen was Jobs. Immigration issues coming at the 7th position, far after many other pure economic issues." 

Behold the new leftist talking points. I've seen this in several other comment strings on other websites lately.

Kefeer's picture

All this is part of the "War on Terror", which means create war using terror to divide any society or just like the "War on Poverty" is to create more impoverished.  

Whatever the name, apply the antithesis and you have the goal or truth.  For example, the Dept. of the Treasury is the Dept of Debt or the Affordable Healthcare is Unaffordable Healthcare Act.

c0nan's picture

I guess the real question is, who opened the boarders? -->

Sandmann's picture

De-colonisation of Algeria, Cameroun, Syria, Lebanon, 

mog's picture

They are deliberately emptying Syria out.
Much of it is now safe.
They are cleaning out the population so it can be more easily converted into the intended plan.
It is the next domino of greater Israel.
The less people the less resistance.
They already occupy the Golan - illegally.
Israel has been behind much of the terror and supportung ISIS.
They have every intention of grabbing Syria.
Look at their maps.

homonohumanus's picture

Well, as you are sick let me spell this out for you: look at a map. Then go on understanding that Iaël has the allies it can and Saoudia Arabia is the only power which aknwoledge them.

NOw it is ugly I agree but what do you expect when there is half assed support from Europe and the US... I agree Israël has no "good" ally in the region, one has to make due with what it has... that is real politics and geo-politic, nasty, peace does not exist by-self, balance of power creates an illusion of peace...

dogismycopilot's picture

Martin Armstrong had some good blog posts today about France Riots and also Obama's OFA Army: