Nasdaq Now More Overbought Than At 2000 Bubble Peak

Tyler Durden's picture

Sometimes you just have to laugh...

Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari said earlier...

"we are keeping our eyes open for asset prices to try to look for signs of bubbles” but admitted that it is "very hard to see asset bubbles in advance."

Indeed it must be... if your salary depends on it.

The S&P 500 has now gone a stunning 50 days without a 1% swing...

 

The S&P 500 Tech Sector has gone a record 14 days without a single loss...

 

And the NASDAQ 100 index is now at its most overbought since 1992 - most notably more overbought than at the peak of the dotcom bubble in 2000...

 

Hey, Neel, do you see the bubble now?

How about now?

But don't worry, earnings expectations must be soaring to support this exuberance, right?

Wrong!

Finally, as Bloomberg's Cameron 'macroman' Crise notes, if you’re looking for another reason to get bearish US equities, try this: the ratio of equity to bond returns is approaching all-time highs in data going back 29 years.

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Seasmoke's picture

But Where are all the day traders in 2017.

WTFRLY's picture

Let's just get the party started. After the economic collapse comes The Purge

The_Juggernaut's picture

Even if it's a bubble, aren't you glad you rode it on the way up?

 

Unless you didn't, in which case, lol @ anyone bailed out before a downtrend emerged.

Haus-Targaryen's picture

I am just ready to get this ball rolling.  Another few months would be nice, but AFAIK we're just one event away from blowing up the system.  

I imagine there will come a point where the powers at be shift from a "kick the can" mode to "setup the failure so its easy to blame on x, y or z" mode. 

 

The_Juggernaut's picture

It may be a good year to sell in May and go away.

 

Hal n back's picture

everything is well tuned HFT able to sell when necessary-which means stay awake folks, this next selloff wil be a doozie.

 

madmike117's picture

I'm sorry, but in the Nasdaq chart, how can you compare a parabolic ascent from the 2000's to the tiny blip of today?

It's poked it's head up through the all-time highs after a big sideways consolidation. In the 2k's it was vertical. 

In my opinion that is a notable difference and hardly qualifies as a 'bubble'.

Squid Viscous's picture

yes, good point... so

step up and buy some "FAANG"s -  only 2.3 Trillion market cap, they're cheap!

Hal n back's picture

got to remember late winter 2000 companies like Cisco were growing revenues  at 50% annually-now they are hard pressedd to so revenue growth even with product line additions,

 

of in the case of autos, its just good till somebody has to pay.

Consuelo's picture

 

 

I don't know but...

 

That stupid radio spot for 'OTA' (Online Trading Academy) has been running full-stop for over a year.   That right there should be all the warning needed...

Txpl9421's picture

You make me long for the day where I could make $1,500 dollars a day before the market opened.

Or, losing $7k because I left my desk to take a crap.

 

Those were fun times....

Txpl9421's picture

You make me long for the day where I could make $1,500 dollars a day before the market opened.

Or, losing $7k because I left my desk to take a crap.

 

Those were fun times....

itstippy's picture

"But Where are all the day traders in 2017?"

I think the trading algos have driven them out, just as they have the proprietary trading desks at the big firms.

Back in 2006 or thereabouts I was in email contact with a day trader I met on the old MSN Money boards.  He was the real deal - he sent me screenshots of his trades to show me how it worked, but I couldn't replicate what he was doing (I used "play" money so I wouldn't lose my shirt).  He had a trading room set up with four monitors and what was as that time a high-speed connection.  He looked for certain patterns to emerge and when the stars were aligned he'd make his move; in and out within minutes.  His success rate was about 80%.  He spent all day every day that the markets were open watching his screens looking for outlier patterns and what happened immediately after.

Then one day I got an email from him saying that he'd been offered a terrific job and he couldn't talk about trading techniques any more.  I thought perhaps he'd been hired by a major trading desk, but he hated the big trading desks.  I think now that he was hired to share his pattern-recognition skills with a hotshot programmer to try to automate the process.  Shortly after the "trading algos" took over; and he was probably in on their development.

pods's picture

Times like this is when I question whether we all might just be living in a powerplant in a simulator run by machines.

I think it is about to pop though. The RE stuff I see is indicating a top. "Never been a better time" and "Earn money flipping houses."

So I think we should be crashing by summer.

pods

mainstream media is useless's picture

Agreed, but thought it would have already been here.  All the house flipping shows started coming back on TV 3-4 years ago.

BandGap's picture

My money is on April - May after they roll out the SoertoroCare substitute.

 

yogibear's picture

With infinite fiat make it bigger. Give 0 down home loans again so Goldman can bet against it again. Another taxpayer bailout again, only larger with pensions and student loans. Rinse and repeat.

zagzigga's picture

Very similar except for one difference - 'this time it's different!". American mkt is the last man standing with japan, europe, the swiss and everyone else is piling in to US equities

Hohum's picture

Including the Swiss National Bank!

buzzsaw99's picture

it's free money. might as well enjoy.

youarelost's picture

The is called inflation.  Just like Germany

Lizardking's picture

No popping sound, just a healthy pullback before next fed meeting. Probably a final capitulation high volume day before the pullback starts. Until fed stops using lighter fluid at its meetings I'd stay bullish and continue to buy dips. 25 basis point upticks is basically pouring lighter fluid on a market that is already on fire.

BigFatUglyBubble's picture

Ms. Yellen will set fire to it if it will absolve her of blame.  She is 100% in reactionary mode and her primary and only objective at this point is to deflect blame of the upcoming dollar collapse and/or market collapse onto something or someone else.

Soul Glow's picture

Trump is going to have the DJ run a little above 21k with a few more "Yuuge tax cuts coming" phrases over the next month, but stocks will peak soon.  We'll get a pullback of 20% next fall and trade between 17k and 19k for the next couple years as everyone finds out that just because Trump wants something - infrastrucutre build and tax cuts - it doesn't mean Congress will approve it.  

Trump is going to be battleing Congress in many ways over the next couple years, but because Goldman is in charge of the Treasury sill there will be money to be flipped from time to time.  If you are waiting for a crash you'll have to wait until 2019.  It'll crash then.

BandGap's picture

Party gets kicked off in France in a month or so. Europe won't make it to 2018, much less 2019.

Prepare accordingly.

small axe's picture

Fed can't see the bubble because it is the bubble.

same as it ever was

LawsofPhysics's picture

Correct.  The Fed has in fact enabled the single greatest THEFT of wealth in the history of the fucking planet!

They won't see any such "bubble" even as all the living past and present board members are losing their fucking heads.

Humanity it seems stopped evolving a while back.

small axe's picture

best axes on the planet, just the ticket for ...

https://www.gransforsbruk.com/en/

Yen Cross's picture

 And all without the daily "self help" monikers.

Consuelo's picture

 

 

Where is that cartoon caption of OJ and couple other murderers looking around for the suspects...?

Squid Viscous's picture

might take a retarded mega merger like Time Warner AOL, to pop this sucker again

maybe Facefuck will buy Netfux, and Twatter in a 3 way circle jerk

RogerMud's picture

or Verizon buys Yahoo. oh, wait..

Squid Viscous's picture

yeah ... getting close, but needs to be even more idiotic, where is Dick Parsons when you need him?

mainstream media is useless's picture

Must be why Buffett pulled out of Unilever deal...needs to keep the party going

Joe Cool's picture

It may implode on its way up...Just dilute the SOB...

brushhog's picture

Impossible to predict, as they say in regards to what the economy will do we have 2 kinds of people, 'those who dont know, and those who dont know that they dont know'.

RSDallas's picture

But, this time is different! 

syzygysus's picture

The quants built a quantum computer for the quatch at the Fed.

 

There will be no 'down'.

 

It's all front run, ctrl+p, and Fed assets purchases of equities with electrons from here on out.

 

The markets will be at all time highs and we'll be sharing a can of Friskies brand "savory shreds".  yum  yum yum.

 

 

edifice's picture

$5,000 invested in AAPL this day in 1997 would be worth $1.25 million, today. Whocouldanode?

syzygysus's picture

Alternatively, you could have bought a house in CA for 5-10k around the same time and it would ALSO be worth over 1.25million...

 

I think its the money.

JoeTurner's picture

Permanent high plateau achieved !

 

zipit's picture

Check out the Shiller P/E, too.

Bam_Man's picture

This will end well for everyone.

besnook's picture

it's different this time....because someone has to say it.

HenryKissingerChurchill's picture

so California and Silicon Valley are going to secede BEFORE? or AFTER the bubble explodes?

south40_dreams's picture

Post earthquake/flood/bubble/kardashian