Calexit - Beat The Crowd

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Dennis Miller via MillerOnTheMoney.com,

Our country has become bitterly divided. No matter who won the election, I predicted we would soon be reading about states wanting to secede from the union.

Even before President Trump was sworn in, the California movement, known as Calexit, began. The first step is to ask voters to adopt a state Constitutional Amendment revoking the U. S. Constitution as the supreme law.

YesCalifornia.org makes this appeal:

“As the sixth largest economy in the world, California is more economically powerful than France and has a population larger than Poland. Point by point, California compares and competes with countries, not just the 49 other states.

Since 1987, California has been subsidizing the other states at a loss of tens and sometimes hundreds of billions of dollars in a single fiscal year.

…In our view, the United States of America represents so many things that conflict with Californian values, and our continued statehood means California will continue subsidizing the other states to our own detriment, and to the detriment of our children.”

They outline reasons why citizens should vote for secession. Point 9 is a bit different, “California has some of the best universities but in various ways, our schools are among the worst in the country.”

I’m unable to determine if the claim “hundreds of billions of dollars” is accurate. How is it calculated? Is a post office or military base returning money back to the state? Creditloan.com indicates California receives $.78 back for every $1.00 is sends to the federal government. Maybe they have a point.

Different values causes divorce

Our founding fathers felt the values of the King of England conflicted with the values of the colonies. Many Americans cheered the British on when they opted out of the European Union. For both situations, oppressive taxation, different values and cost and control of the central government was a motivating factor.

Be careful what you wish for

Things are not all sunny in the land of milk and honey. Currently the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) is woefully underfunded. The Mercury News editorial, “CalPERS again falls short of addressing deficit” reports the fund has lowered the projected earnings estimates from 7.5% down to 7% in 2019. They add one inconvenient truth:

“To understand how far short this move falls, consider that CalPERS announced Wednesday that it hadn’t hit a 7 percent average over the last 20 years and, going forward, it estimates that there’s only roughly a 1-in-4 chance that it will meet that target.

… CalPERS consultant warns that the pension system should anticipate only an average 6.2 percent in each of the next 10 years.

… That places the system’s shortfall at about $170 billion, which averages more than $13,000 of debt for each California household.”

The optimistic vision of the secessionist movement overlook a major factor. The California political class is predominantly socialists, redistributing wealth through progressive taxation and free programs to voters to maintain their power. If secession brings an economic windfall it would quickly be spent. As Margaret Thatcher warned, “The problem with socialism is you run out of other people’s money.”

Beat the Crowd

George Bernard Shaw said, “A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul.” In many cases Peter quietly moved away and took his money with him.

Remember when top professional golfer, Phil Michelson created quite a stir complaining about California taxes, while putting his home up for sale? He would have been better off staying quiet about his reasons. California Political Review reports:

“Tiger Woods moved from Orange County, California to Orange County, Florida. In the first year of that move, he saved $13 million in taxes. Is it worth $13 million a year taken by government to live in California? Woods said no. Now it looks like Phil Michelson is about to make the same decision. He earns $60 million a year-he would save north of $5 million a year to move to a free State, like Florida or Texas.”

The New York Post reports:

“Billionaire David Tepper has moved from New Jersey to Florida, and the loss of his income tax could leave a $140 million hole. … Forty percent of the state’s revenue comes from personal-income tax – a third of which is collected from less than 1 percent of taxpayers. Tepper was New Jersey’s wealthiest resident.”

It’s not just the heavy hitters

When we moved to Phoenix we joined a local club in order to meet people. Each month new members stand up and introduce themselves. We noticed a large number of Californians. While my survey is unscientific, I’ve asked many why they moved. Every one mentioned how expensive California is to live. One former Californian remarked, “There are a lot of California refugees in Arizona and Nevada.”

We lived in Georgia when they passed a state income tax. While it’s progressive, the top rate (6%) kicks in at $7,000. At the time I was in my peak earning years and could live anywhere.

I was an early immigrant. The first time I paid GA income tax, I realized our other taxes did not go down. What did I get back from the government for confiscating an additional 6% of my earnings? We quickly moved to Florida, with no state income taxes. Florida is full of refugees fleeing other high tax states.

The migration continues. In 2013 the Tax Foundation published a State Migration Calculator and great graphic:

The high tax socialist states are losing billions in adjusted gross income, while states like Texas and Florida are growing. The Washington Examiner reports the trend is continuing and concludes, “The growth in no-income-tax and right-to-work states was fueled largely by net domestic migration rather than international migration (Emphasis mine), according to the 2016 Census estimates.”

The landscape is changing

The election of President Trump sent shock waves through much of the political class. Many public union pensions are woefully underfunded. They donated millions to Hillary Clinton’s election campaign and expected federal bailouts. They knew they could count on Mrs. Clinton; she has a great track record of rewarding her political donors. Today no one knows what the new administration will do.

In the meantime, the scramble is on. The politicians in states that have been heavily supporting Paul have a huge base, not because they have won over the hearts and minds of Peter; but rather because the working class got tired of being fleeced and left. The politicos have to find ways to make good on all their free programs. Cutting benefits will cause citizens to storm the palace. They must find ways to generate more revenue.

Brian Daniels warns us, The Growing Specter of State “Exit Taxes” as Residents Abandon High-Tax States:

“To be clear, it is not legal for states to charge a true exit tax on citizens changing their residency from one state to another (this is not the case for the federal government, which does charge a large exit tax).

So what do high-tax states do to try and prevent their residents from moving their legal residence to low- or no-tax states? In a word, they audit them.”

When a taxpayer is audited, the agency issues an assessment for unpaid taxes. It’s not “innocent until proven guilty.” You must prove they are wrong or the assessment stands.

Once you intend to leave you are of no value to the politicos. Most people do not have the means to go to court. For some, it becomes a government shakedown to extract as much wealth as they can on your way out the door.

What about Calexit?

With the mindset of California voters, who knows what will happen?

I don’t recommend holding any California government debt, including holdings in bond funds. While the probability of secession may be small, might they establish their own currency and try to renegotiate their debt? Holding California debt is an unnecessary risk to take with retirement money.

Should they vote to secede, Californians would face a choice of leaving or staying. If you choose to leave, expect a hefty exit tax. If you are thinking about leaving, why wait? Walk quietly and beat the rush!

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BullyBearish's picture

I'm tired of this BS...I want my own country...

localsavage's picture

They keep forgetting that the rest of us (The Federal Government) own 48% of the state. 

Krungle's picture

Oh no, you mean the company that buys up public water and then bottles it to sell it back to people at a huge mark up is leaving? The company that convinced poor women that their breast milk was no good so that they should buy overpriced nutrient deficient formula, leading to health problems down the road? The company that demanded debt repayment from startving Ethiopians? The company that uses child slave labor? The company that put melamine in their products because they decided to outsource it to shitty Chinese firms? The company that puts lead in noodles? Whatever will they do without some sociopathic Swiss assholes trying to swindle people peddling poison? 

Nestle leaving and taking their products with them is a net gain for any society. Small businesses leaving is the problem, and California has to deal with that. 

xythras's picture
xythras (not verified) stacking12321 Feb 24, 2017 12:46 AM

But imagine how bad the picture is, if even Nestle is leaving. 

Next you'll hear McDonald's is packing bags.

JamesBond's picture

CA is full of country loathing, cultural loathing, and self-loathing idiots. If CA breaks away, it will not stay 'united'. There will be fools who believe that they should give part of it back to Mexico because Spanish is the official language there, part of it to African Americans as reparations, and part of it to ISIS because Islam needs a place to kneel.

jb

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) JamesBond Feb 24, 2017 1:44 AM

California is bleeding good people and importing violent welfare queens.

Tech companies have been setting up outside CA for the last 4 or so years.

They are LEAVING because it is too expensive to do business in San Francisco.

People in SF live like animals, 3 people to a studio apartment.

How long do you want to that?

I meet more people leaving than moving in now.

38BWD22's picture

 

 

Last I heard, big Japanese bearing maker Koyo had their West Coast distribution Center in Reno, NV (rather than much bigger market CA).

Hmm, why would that be?

 

in4mayshun's picture

Reno/Carson City is growing like crazy, but so is North Sacramento. Lots of Bay Area tech companies moving out because employees are too difficult to find in SF when rent is $3,000/mo or more.

Jack's Raging Bile Duct's picture

Half of the companies in Reno, NV are warehouses. It's a much cheaper distribution point than anywhere in CA.

A Nanny Moose's picture

This is what Communists do...

They fuck up their home turf, with egalitarian horseshit Marxist academics. When it doesn't turn out as planned, they complain about it, then leave to go fuck up some other place....See Oregon, Colorado.

Nevada and Arizona are next...and they thought CA was a desert.

/Breaks out bag of popcorn

Orc from Mordor's picture

Really? Oregon and Colorado were fucked up by Communists? I've always thought that you democratically slaughtered all Communists in 1920s-1930s.

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) A Nanny Moose Feb 24, 2017 8:49 AM

Tech companies are moving to Arizona and Austin TX.

migra's picture

I'm leaving southern California in May for Arizona. I can't wait to escape this fucked up place. My standard of living is going to go way up.

limited man's picture
limited man (not verified) migra Feb 24, 2017 4:57 AM

I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... http://bit.ly/2jdTzrM

HedgeJunkie's picture

I'm staying.

In the civil war that follows the presumptive break up, there are more than a couple of prominant politicians (of both creeds), that I'll have my sights on.

If my failed state of Commiefornia wants to break away, I have serious questions about the new borders.  Draw a line north and south, 100 miles from the beach.  That's Commiefornia.

Those of us in the east of that line can call ourselves Nevazonians.

fallout11's picture

As a Libertarian, I support California's plan to leave the United States. The right of self-determination is a fundamental tenet, and I hope they depart post-haste.
That said, California is over $1 trillion dollars in debt (http://www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/editorials/article/California-s-1tril...), meaning that if they were an independent nation they would be one of the most indebted, coming in ahead of Nigeria.
California has over 1/3rd of the US's welfare receipients (https://bpr.berkeley.edu/2015/04/19/californias-welfare-benefits-boom-or...), despite having only 12% of the nation's population, because it outspends every other state on welfare. Nearly 45% of California's population is on welfare, and California spends $70 billion dollars a year on them.
As a result, California actually has the highest proverty rate in the US (http://www.newsmax.com/Reagan/California-Census-Bureau-Welfare/2014/11/2...) according to the census bureau.

In short, an independent California would be a third world nation, and given the predeliction for making assinine decisions, would resemble Venuzuela in 10 years if left to their own choices. 

Bumpo's picture

I saw a YouTube video asking CA residents what they thought of the CA secession movement. 2/3rds of them thought it would be bad for the rest of the country, that the US would lose a huge cultural and economic engine that would hurt the rest of the country. It dawned on me, its not about what THEY believe, but convincing the rest of us that their values are the ONLY way to live. I think they are seriously scared of going it alone, with no one else to run over and dictate their moral authority to. 

Orc from Mordor's picture

If I were you, I would tell CA to fuck off and would take over the Bahamas to compensate for the loss of seashore.

BLOTTO's picture

This planet is like Dante's 9nth circle of hell.
.
Threachery.

peddling-fiction's picture

We are in hell. No question about it.

Not Sheol though. The fallen are there.

BLOTTO's picture

Reality is their fiction.
.
Their fiction is the reality.

eatthebanksters's picture

This is a ridiculous article. California is never leaving the USA.  Only a third of the residents want Calexit. It would need to be agreed to by a 2/3 majority of the states. (not gonna happen).  California is so fucking broke how do they afford an independent military to protect themselves?  How are they going to pay for that?  Fuck me, this is the dumbest fucking idea put forward.  Only lobotomized libtard morons would waste fucking time and money on something like this.  What they don't understand is with no manufacturing base (because no company will build a fab facility in CA because its way too fucking expensive) and with high tech IPO's at zero (and with some IPO's moving out of state - like Snapshit) the state no longer has the money to give away the way they have in the past.  When CalPERS and STERS go bust and when our already highest in the country state income taxes go way up the people will revolt...we'll go back to the days of Reagan Republicans and all will be good.  It might take 6 to 8 years, but we are on the same path as the old USSR when Gorby took Reagan's advice and tore down the walls. 

It can't happen too soon.

peddling-fiction's picture

Anybody pushing this secession crap should be jailed.

Sorry, but that is the truth, if balance prevailed.

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) peddling-fiction Feb 24, 2017 1:53 AM

California won't be allowed to go it alone, that opens the door for China to invade and they are already here.

Also those in CA will vote it down.

Nobody here in CA is taking this seriously. lol

A Nanny Moose's picture

Fuck that. I am all for CalExit.

I will ExitCal

LyLo's picture

It does seem to be predominantly a movement for people outside California.  Perhaps Californians should consider this. 

(I actually think it could happen, but it wouldn't be "CalExit" so much as the "CalBoot."  I don't think most Californians truly grasp the depth of disdain the rest of the country has developed for their state over the past 20 years.)

BLOTTO's picture

Samyaza and the other 200.
.
Book of Enoch
.
Book of Giants, Dead Sea Scrolls

peddling-fiction's picture

I am aware of them. And fighting people manipulated by them.

Thus fighting them.

ebworthen's picture

California is 48% American Citizens and 52% delusional transients.

If they want to "secede" that is fine, will save the rest of the nation Billions in wasted subsidies.

Twee Surgeon's picture

The Federal Government maintains Public Land, except for Military stuff. BLM. Black Lives Matter.

peddling-fiction's picture

The US is not divided. It has been divided by the media.

You are being played. It is more media spin than reality.

All these ZH articles talking secession are treason, and part of the problem.

Is this my X moment?

political_proxy's picture

The media are not free thinkers, they roll on an agenda they think is of their own creation, not implanted within them.

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) peddling-fiction Feb 24, 2017 1:48 AM

Even my kid says CALexit is a joke.

GUS100CORRINA's picture

What a MESS CA, NY and IL are on the US MAP. Look at the numbers.

max2205's picture

Subtract Federal funding and all the company's that will leave and it's just a farm and bad movies 

Jimmy Jimmereeno's picture

And most likely an unirrigated farm, therefore, worthless.

Son of Loki's picture

Public unions should do what private sector has done with its troubled pensions.

More employee contributions and lower payouts in line with reality.

 

RE: the student defaults, refuse to allow innocent taxpayers to bail the students/banks out who lent the dough. Let th euniverisites cover the debts. Either cut salaries or their pensions or "borrow" the money from the uni endowment.

CitizenPete's picture

And here I thought all those anti-gun acid dropping Cali lib twats were movin to Boulder

Jimmy Jimmereeno's picture

They're moving to Nevada - mostly Washoe county (Reno-Sparks) and Carson City county - and they're bringing all of their statist/totalitarian philosophy with them.  The established residents, being a product of the Federally run school system,  have not a clue about what's going on or about the impending disenfranchisement of their Constitutional rights.  Before you know it, there will be a move for a State constitutional amendment to impose a progressive income tax.

Kefeer's picture

QUOTE: "CalPERS consultant warns that the pension system should anticipate only an average 6.2 percent in each of the next 10 years." - END

HAHAHAHAHAAAH - wink-wink

Jimmy Jimmereeno's picture

California will not secede from the USA.  If the state of California subdivides into several sovereign states and then a secession occurs, on an individual state basis, it might be successful.  But generally, there is no way (as was true in the late 1860s) that the Federal US government would tolerate any state's secession.  A secession would be intolerable: "the end of the world as the Feds know it".

quax's picture

Doesn't mean that ZH won't push for it, it's the Russian game plan after all.