Who's Right? Bonds (& VIX & Hard Data) Or Stocks

Tyler Durden's picture

One of these things is not like the other...

The 30Y Yield just dropped back below 3.00% once again and 10Y is back at February lows - what happens next?


Despite the exuberance of hope, protection is heavily bid...


And if Utility stocks' demand is anything to go by, bond yields have a long way to fall...


Finally - absent the hope-strewn soft-survey data, 'hard' data has decidedly deteriorated...


So who's right? Stocks... or VIX and Bonds and Real macro data?

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NoDebt's picture

If stocks followed bonds or the Vix we'd probably be back down at S&P 666.  Which is, of course, completely impossible.


Looney's picture


Speaking of VIX

Is that the nerve agent Little Kim’s brother was poisoned with?  ;-)


jus_lite_reading's picture

Even China is getting pissed with North Korea. I think that problem will solve itself.

As far as the economy, the Fed will do what they want. TBTF is the only thing they know.


GUS100CORRINA's picture

Cast your VOTE below ... Who's Right?

Bonds, VIX & Hard Data


FL_Conservative's picture

Wow!  A "collapse" of 50pts on the SP500???  Heaven help us!  What will we do????

Wake me after it falls 500 pts and then I will be impressed.

Ink Pusher's picture

Bonds belong with Stocks ...

VIX and Hard Data in the other column


Bonds are just more derivative nonsense these days...

If they were backed with physical Gold or Silver Bullion, that would be an entirely different story. But; They AIN'T.

Bush Baby's picture

Is China getting sick of NK or is this a behind the scene Trump negotiation?

Squeeze their balls on Taiwan, Trade and their Fantasy Island so they depose Lil' Kim?

SoDamnMad's picture

VIX is an after-shave the LOL girl was dabbing him with.  Who couldda knod.

TheLastTrump's picture

it sure poisoned the fuck out of my account

illuminatus's picture

Come on, nailgun, the masters of the universe can move the markets wherever they want. What is impossible is for us to know their methods of gaining complete control, but we can assume taking and having control of the markets to achieve the above is a whole lot more than possible.

NoDebt's picture

Please check the batteries in your sarcasm detector.

Dr. Engali had the right call on this years ago:  The stock market is just a policy tool.  They can make it be whatever they want it to be to suit their need.

illuminatus's picture

Exactly my point. I suppose I didn't get the impossibility you pointed out in your first comment. I'm sure you are aware that there a lot of 'educated' mainstream economists that don't get what I was pointing out. Glad to know you do though!


1200BTC/18AG=66.666. It's probably nothing.

order66's picture

Hmmm....companies have borrowed billions to pay dividends they can't afford to pay and do stock buybacks instead of actually growing their businesses and EPS organically.

What could possibly be wrong about that?

SomethingSomethingDarkSide's picture

The Printer is correct - fuck math

BigFatUglyBubble's picture

I hope Mr. Mnuchin issues 200 year bonds, 100Y won't have the yields I am looking for.

r3phl0x's picture

Perpetual zero-coupon coming soon to a sovereign near you.

Ink Pusher's picture

It's Hard Data over fudged numbers any day for this guy.


dizzyfingers's picture

Fake news, ooooh, so scary. Markets do what they do. Wall Street does what it does.

Snaffew's picture

these markets are unbelievable...BTFD continues to rule---they refuse to give these markets a red fucking close---these markets are almost as insane as Trump.

TheLastTrump's picture

The insanity is coming from those who decry President Trump, like you fuck face.


The tell was how they never gave him a break, wall to wall negative coverage for 1.5 years now and he's only been in office a month. :)


Whereas Obama was given a free pass by the media and we all know just how shitty a president he was.


So yeah...it's insane to batter Trump without reason while blowing Obama DESPITE the overwhelming evidence of malfeasance.

allamerican's picture

wow, that was a close one huh.

my eod spy 300 target still good huh..

Cryoprase the Troll's picture

Market valuation methods and logic break as yields approach or duck below 0%.

Some, like pension funds and retirees requiring jam today, are in a mad dash to find yield at any price and reward at any risk. Hence utility stocks going up.

Others, like managed funds and value investors, are in a mad dash to preserve capital, and avoid a bursting bubble. Hence treasury yields going down.

Indexes/total market value are moved by relatively tiny trade volumes. 0.1% of stock trading at 26* p/e doesn't mean every share is worth that.

50 billion of bonds trading at 0% every month doesn't mean a market of 14T is worth zero yield.

But the truth is, there's nowhere to hide.

r3phl0x's picture

The only way to get a good risk-adjusted return in this so-called market is to build a fucking time machine, travel back to 1999, and go all-in on 30yr US treasuries @ 6%.

Quivering Lip's picture

Its almost as if Central Banks world wide can "print" money from nothing controlling asset prices, eventually owning everything.

Centralized Confiscation and Consolidation through Counterfeiting.

ParticularlyStupidHumanoid's picture

It's a new bull market. boohoo, your shorts won't turn out. Nobody cares. Cry to someone else! #MAGA

Soul Glow's picture

Silver is dominating the Trump trade.  That means the banksters are in trouble.

highwaytoserfdom's picture

 the world is all Non GAAP   setting up a irish gold miners fund    LOL  


Ajax_USB_Port_Repair_Service_'s picture

Someone on here yesterday said they were going to buy VIX calls. I think that was a good idea!

SHsparx's picture

Stocks are right because they're manipulated.

Snaffew's picture

someone spoke about the old 3:30 ramp---well, they nailed it...BTFD rules again...and again...and again----

ds's picture

US Bond and Equity Markets are global and not microcosms of the real US economy. Except for global macro data like fund flows, the domestic macro data do not matter much.