Stockman: "After March 15 Everything Will Grind To A Halt"

Tyler Durden's picture

Two weeks after David Stockman warned that "the market is apparently pricing in a huge Trump stimulus. But if you just look at the real world out there, the only thing that's going to happen is a fiscal bloodbath and a White House train wreck like never before in U.S. history" and exclaimed that, when looking at markets, "what's going on today is complete insanity" he is back with another interview, this time with Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog in which he, once again warns, that a giant fiscal bloodbatch is coming soon, and urges listeners to pay especially close attention to the March 15, 2017 debt ceiling deadling, at which point everything could "grind to a halt."

As Greg Hunter writes, former Reagan Administration White House Budget Director David Stockman says financial pain is a mathematical certainty. Stockman explains, “I think we are likely to have more of a fiscal bloodbath rather than fiscal stimulus.  Unfortunately for Donald Trump, not only did the public vote the establishment out, they left on his doorstep the inheritance of 30 years of debt build-up and a fiscal policy that’s been really reckless in the extreme.  People would like to think he’s the second coming of Ronald Reagan and we are going to have morning in America.  Unfortunately, I don’t think it looks that promising because Trump is inheriting a mess that pales into insignificance what we had to deal with in January of 1981 when I joined the Reagan White House as Budget Director.”

So, can the Trump bump in the stock market keep going? Stockman, who wrote a book titled “Trumped” predicting a Trump victory in 2016, says, “I don’t think there is a snowball’s chance in the hot place that’s going to happen. This is delusional.  This is the greatest suckers’ rally of all time.  It is based on pure hopium and not any analysis at all as what it will take to push through a big tax cut.  Donald Trump is in a trap.  Today the debt is $20 trillion.  It’s 106% of GDP. . . .Trump is inheriting a built-in deficit of $10 trillion over the next decade under current policies that are built in.  Yet, he wants more defense spending, not less.  He wants drastic sweeping tax cuts for corporations and individuals.  He wants to spend more money on border security and law enforcement.  He’s going to do more for the veterans.  He wants this big trillion dollar infrastructure program.  You put all that together and it’s madness.  It doesn’t even begin to add up, and it won’t happen when you are struggling with the $10 trillion of debt that’s coming down the pike and the $20 trillion that’s already on the books.”

Then, Stockman drops this bomb and says:

“I think what people are missing is this date, March 15th 2017.  That’s the day that this debt ceiling holiday that Obama and Boehner put together right before the last election in October of 2015.  That holiday expires.  The debt ceiling will freeze in at $20 trillion.  It will then be law.  It will be a hard stop.  The Treasury will have roughly $200 billion in cash.  We are burning cash at a $75 billion a month rate.  By summer, they will be out of cash.  Then we will be in the mother of all debt ceiling crises.  Everything will grind to a halt.  I think we will have a government shutdown.  There will not be Obama Care repeal and replace.  There will be no tax cut.  There will be no infrastructure stimulus.  There will be just one giant fiscal bloodbath over a debt ceiling that has to be increased and no one wants to vote for.”

Stockman also predicts very positive price moves for gold and silver as a result of the coming budget calamity.

There is much more in the video interview below in which Greg Hunter goes One-on-One with David Stockman.

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luna_man's picture



This deserves multiple listenings and readings Boy's & Girl's!...Think, Zimbabwe, Venezuela and other indebted countries.


Remember to be courteous at the FEMA camps.

arrowrod's picture

WARNING  Snarky racist rant.

Zimbabwe, Venezuela and other indebted countries, don't have white people running the place.   We have Jew masterminds cooking the books.  The Nazis killed them, much to their chagrin.

Protect the Jews.  Keep the industrious whites employed.  Keep the affirmative action "elites" in ceremonial ivory towers.  We can keep this bastard running forever. 


Ignorance is bliss's picture

I think Stockman might be right and even if he isn't it won't matter. First there are too many conmen and senators that are Republican and diametrically opposed to Trump. Second the Democrats supporting Obamanation and Hitlery will create a fracas no matter what. The world will know front and center that the U.S. is breaching the 20 Trillion debt mark and beyond. That will rattle faith in the currency and the treasury markets. The faith in the Dollar and government debt will take a hard hit. Even if they pass the budget and lift the debt ceiling the uncertainty of a default and the uncertainty surrounding Europe and the freedom for Muslims to start saving in Gold, all occurring simultaneously will push the fear trade into safe assets like Gold and Silver.This will be the event that breaks the golden camels back IMHO. If that happens then Trump gets his Dollar devaluation and the world drops the Dollar as the reserve currency and America joins the third world. Even if Stockman is wrong the event has to be on your calendar because it is full of risk for everyone that holds U.S. debt in the form of bonds or Dollars.

brushhog's picture

Are we still pretending that there is a debt ceiling?  Come on.

coast1's picture

I guess the dumbing down of america might work, becauser I dont see anyone on either side, whether the protests or MAGA, no one else asks a simple question.....IF YOU CAN SIMPLY PRINT MONEY, WHY DO YOU NEED OUR TAXES?  

Ignorance is bliss's picture

Because we are indentured servants. No matter much we save all is arraigned against us. Paid off your house? How about them taxes? How about that inflation? How about those medical bills. We are one step above slavery. Now you know.

Farqued Up's picture

The Gov debt isn't the main problem, they can always send new fiat to the rescue. Student loans, household debt, the auto subprime, the bad oil loans, the hangover debt that has ballooned since 2008, the crash and burn of state and local gov debt, the whole goddam thing is out of control. this whole rat's nest will explode before the parasites will be cut off and the discretionary income is fucked down to nothing. 

The only escape is to guillotine the Cabal and say fuck the debt that the Corp USA ran up and confiscate every crooked $ they pilfered using their own asset forfeiture laws against them. They know exactly where the missing 9 trillion stash is.

When is Sessions going to get his shit steam up and set sail for the orange jump suits? The troops are getting restless. 

coast1's picture


Francis Marx's picture

I have to agree with others on here about stockmans timing. Never right. He does point out the macro enviroment correctly though. His thinking is based on more of a two dimensional model with no other inputs.

johand inmywallet's picture

The only way out of this is a worldwide carte blanche reset. Eliminate all debt and start from square 1. The major powerhouses would be behind this as they have the most debt. Go to a gold backed monetary system worldwide. Each country has their own currency, but all backed by gold. Sure, some countries will get the shit end of the stick, but they are right now anyways. No reserve currency, only gold backing. This means all debt, nationwide and all personal debt.

jughead's picture

Stockman doesn't mention one basic little fact...that these pussies will raise the debt limit yet again.  Doesn't take a fucking Svengali to see that.

NoWayJose's picture

And- surprise, surprise - it will go until March of 2021!

Sudden Debt's picture

Well, that kalf has already drowned.

We all know that Trump will be an inflation president and like it or not, now it's the only way out.

Cutting expenses is to hard.

Inflate and don't raise the expenses that follow.

Sure it will be painfull, especially for the lower and even middle class people but if we don't bite that bullet, we'll be in a mess for the next few decades like Greece is in now.

We're broke. The west is broke. There's no Disney ending in that one.

You can't let the house burn down and when the fires are going through the roof calling the fire department expecting them the save the entire house.


Timming's picture

Seriously?   Again?  More speculation from unreliable sources.


The thing is that there are some analysts who atually make predictions and the predictions come true. Some analysts who give real time buy and sell signals and they work out and MAKE MONEY. Now why in the world everybody is so fascinated with these morons who never call anything correct is beyond me.


ShepWave the ex-Goldman Sachs guys have been nailing markets. END OF STORY!.


Mon T's picture

Their calls lately have been nothing short of amazing 

ThanksIwillHaveAnother's picture

Either the government will grind to a halt or the printing presses will be unleashed like never before.  Both outcomes are positive for gold.  I pick the latter since I see nothing from the Trump Administration that indicates spending will be cut as needed and some default though Trump talked about this before he was elected.   Funny what D.C. does to outsiders' thinking once there!

DeaconPews's picture

This gloom and doom shit. Every fucking day. The one time they get it right they'll be saying, "Told you so."

DaveA's picture

This is why the Balanced Budget Amendment was always pure hokum, because any party that controls either the Presidency or one house of Congress can force a balanced budget by refusing to increase the debt limit. This often leads to a bit of theater called a "government shutdown", except that this time we have a President who would very much like to shut down large chunks of the government!

So what if this means Donald doesn't get money for the wall. If EBT and Medicaid get shut off, we won't need a wall.

Publicus's picture

Actually, the debt is going down thanks to Trump. We are making America great again.

Spectre's picture

For decades these "Kick the Can down the Road" fucking politicians will do it again and raise the debt ceiling.  I hope the entire US financial system crashes into oblivion.

sister tika's picture

Mr. Stockman's excellent rant summarized:

We're pretty much fucked so lube up, boys and girls.

Kagemusho's picture

22 years ago, in 1995 the Fed-druhl Gub'mint was supposed to 'grind to a halt' when Newt Gingrich and friends pulled the shutdown.

Shutdown my ass. Yeah, right, I was working for Uncle at the time and you got to see who was worth a damn and who wasn't. The managers put the ones who didn't do shit anyway on furlough and kept the Paredo Rule 20% who did 80% of the work at their posts, like I had to.

After the 2 week shutdown they brought back all the worthless shits (like the politically untouchable Black female 'co-worker' who was always MIA for 3 hours out of every 8 hour shift) who'd had an unpaid vacation, while I'd had to bust my ass the whole time.  The writing was on the wall, and it wasn't going to get any better.

After that I went back to private industry.

Shutdown? 'Grind to a halt? Don't make me laugh. The same fuqqing thing will happen this time. Namely, nothing.

grunk's picture

Whatever happened  to those trillion dollar coins?


I spent them in the Peanut Vending Machine at the airport lounge bar whilst waiting for a flight in a drunken stupor, sorry.


Note: I asked the hookers waiting in the bar if they would lend me a couple of quarters, and they replied that they were not Investment Bankers, and that I should fuck off.


I tried, honest!

Snaffew's picture

David Morgan showed a trillion dollar zimbabwe note that was printed, but never made it into circulation---i think it was only worth about $17 US at the time the presses were running.

wholy1's picture

Even though I feel that Stockman should not be discounted, I suspect the "[NOT] Federal {NO] Reserve" will be forced to issue more "digital DEBT-credit" to the "United Snakes Corp" - disregarding the diminishing "bonding out" of illegal migrants "collateral/securities" - until GLOBAL market forces finally capitulate.  Already, an increasing amt of foreign-held Treasury redemptions are occuring.

GreyTiger's picture

for what it's worth, i like Davy Crockett's speach "It's Not Yours To Give"

the Federal Government is able to tax us, for the money it takes to run the Government, it was never meant to be a Country/World Wide Charitable Organization. my own suspiciouns are all the money that's paid out not only has Fraud, Waste, and Abuse issues, but also a Kickback feature/scheme.

i believe we are headed for some difficult financial times, everyone knows the same Fed that kept interest rates at near 0% the entire Obama era, will now certainly raise interest rates at every opportunity during the Trump era making credit tighter and debt bigger.

bottom line, the rest of the world is going to have to share the pain, we can no longer be the Worlds Charity Organization, they won't like it, but so what.

Snaffew's picture

i agree with everything you said with the exception of rising interest rates...they may be able to ratchet up another 1/2 percent before they realize just how much pain they have already a worthless attempt to pull the economy out of the impending recession/depression, they will cut rates and try to pull off QE IV---the largest stimulus package ever attempted---unfortunately, at that point, the USD will be spiraling down into worthless territory and even a trillion dollar stimulus measure would feel mroe like a few million.  You reap what you sow---it's time to pay the piper---with blood.

PGR88's picture

OR, David, they'll just raise the debt ceiling....

BSHJ's picture

Or this time they might just do away with the ceiling.  Really, why keep going through the charade?

PitBullsRule's picture

Of course they're gonna raise the limit!  That's what limits are FOR!  Its like the speed limit, does anybody really drive that slow?  Hard stop, my ass... they never run out of cash because they just print cash.

Donald Trump isn't INHERITING the debt, he RAN after the debt.  Its not a hot potato, its a country, if you don't have a solution, then don't run for president.

mcl2177's picture

Why does it always have to be Armageddon? Couldn't it be that the debt ceiling is raised (which it will be) and then a budget is passed that has a long term outlook in regards to reducing spendings

buzzsaw99's picture

i was White House Budget Director an [sic] hundred years ago bitchez

me and raygun were close i'm telling ya, real close, like this...

FedFunnyMoney's picture

They'll vote to increase it. Non-event.

The big event is when the markets lose confidence in our debt as Dump runs the debt up to $40T and the Fed has to QE all of it.

Inflate or die, baby.

Go long on silver!

rphb's picture

okay that is a non-event stockman. That debt celling holyday freeze can be solved simply by making a new law. The US is going to default at some point, but it wont be because of something as easily fixable as the debt celling, it have been raised every time and it will continue to be so.

No the US will default when the market collapsed, it will default when nobody wants the dollar anymore, when it have been printed into oblivion, and we are still a few years away from that.

andrej's picture
"After March 15 Everything Will Grind To A Halt"

"Everything Will Grind To A Halt!?" Again?

Yeah, whatever. I'll just remember the date: March 15. After March 15, I'll start actively ignoring this David Stockman fellow.


Disgruntled Goat's picture

Once the money runs out, Trump has statutory authority to determine what gets funded, and what does not. Theres a lot of progressive grants and programs that are going down, big time. This could actually be the catalyst for the real violence to begin. Black people need their programs.

Jethro's picture

And illegal immigrants, and uncompetitive industries.   I wouldn't mind watching a gigantic shit show...

WillyGroper's picture

that's what i honed in on.

timing for the stanford schmuck's vid was surprising, eh?

i still think trump was placed to handle the bankruptcy of the ussa.

no worries, soros will prolly write off kushners debt.

GOSPLAN HERO's picture

"If the North triumphs, it is not alone the destruction of our property; it is the prelude to anarchy, infidelity, and the ultimate loss of free and responsible government on this continent. It is the triumph of commerce, the banks, and the factories."     

                                                                                                                                           Lt.Gen. Jackson, CSA, 1862      

GOSPLAN HERO's picture

"If the North triumphs, it is not alone the destruction of our property; it is the prelude to anarchy, infidelity, and the ultimate loss of free and responsible government on this continent. It is the triumph of commerce, the banks, and the factories."                                                                                                                                               


Lt.Gen. CSA, Jackson1862      

FPearl602's picture

More market crash BS courtesy of ZH and David "Sky is Falling" Stockman.







ExpertiseAsia's picture

Stockman's era may have passed a while ago, and he is way too brutal in his views to ever be spot on with forecasts, but he does know what he is talking about. After all, he had learned his lesson in the early 80s hands-on. In this wake, let me offer another piece from Asia this Monday morning, here.


King of Ruperts Land's picture

When using token money ($US) for the unit of account, anything is possible. The accounting is all fiction. If Trump manages to increase employment in the US, then more Americans have more money to buy the more stuff that is made in US. All he has to do is crack the whip, CRACK. There will be a rise in real economic measures, output of concrete, steel, lumber, restaurant meals, labor hours.