Having drifted flat for weeks at around a 1-in-3 chance - despite endless jawboning from The Fed - March rate hike odds suddenly surged higher today (to up to a 50% probability), or as Reuters put it "out of the blue."
Dallas Fed's Kaplan said this morning that a rate increase should happen sooner than later, adding that "[The Fed] wants to prevent a situation where we fall behind the curve." As Reuters notes this is entirely consistent with his and colleagues' recent comments, but somehow strikes a chord on otherwise uneventful day.
It seems the Fed Funds futures market suddenly decided to catch up to stocks?
On very heavy volume.
Did someone get the nod today? Another Fed leak?