The 100 Year Debt-Supercycle Is Coming To An End: "Facing Greatest Crisis In Human History"

Tyler Durden's picture

The government deal on the debt ceiling is coming to an end next month, and there is about to be a great deal of noise about it. But, as SHTFPlan.com's Mac Slavo notes, while the system is most likely to simply pass the buck around again, things may have finally reached the point where the road cannot be stretched further out ahead. The Federal Reserve system has acknowledged that QE stimulus reached its theoretical limit, and had crippled the economy; it has acknowledged that the law of boom and bust has put us into a double-bind, and that there will be economic pain one way or another. The experts, critics and Cassandra’s have all screamed about the massively vulnerable system we are all part of, but the biggest question of all is when? Have the debt levels, and monetary schemes simply reached the point of no return? Are they ready to sacrifice public order and stability in order to collect on what is there’s? These things move in century-long cycles, and it is time to assess where we’re at, at what point in history we have reached. Central banking has enslaved us all, and doomed us to the next crisis, and there may be nothing we can do to stop it...

March 2017: The End Of A 100 Year Global Debt Super Cycle Is Way Overdue

via Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

For more than 100 years global debt levels have been rising, and now we are potentially facing the greatest debt crisis in all of human history.  Never before have we seen such a level of debt saturation all over the planet, and pretty much everyone understands that this is going to end very, very badly at some point.  The only real question is when it will happen.  Many believe that the current global debt super cycle began when the Federal Reserve was established in 1913.  Central banks are designed to create debt, and since 1913 the U.S. national debt has gotten more than 6800 times larger.  But of course it is not just the United States that is in this sort of predicament.  At this point more than 99 percent of the population of the entire planet lives in a nation that has a debt-creating central bank, and as a result the whole world is drowning in debt.

When people tell me that things are going to “get better” in 2017 and beyond, I find it difficult not to roll my eyes.  The truth is that the only way we can even continue to maintain our current ridiculously high debt-fueled standard of living is to grow debt at a much faster pace than the economy is growing.  We may be able to do that for a brief period of time, but giant financial bubbles like this always end and we will not be any exception.

Barack Obama and his team understood what was happening, and they were able to keep us out of a horrifying economic depression by stealing more than nine trillion dollars from future generations of Americans and pumping that money into the U.S. economy.  As a result, the federal government is now 20 trillion dollars in debt, and that means that the eventual crash is going to be far, far worse than it would have been if we would have lived within our means all this time.

Corporations and households have been going into absolutely enormous amounts of debt as well.  Corporate debt has approximately doubled since the last financial crisis, and U.S. consumers are now more than 12 trillion dollars in debt.

When you add all forms of debt together, America’s debt to GDP ratio is now about 352 percent.  I think that the following illustration does a pretty good job of showing how absolutely insane that is

If your brother earns $100,000 in annual income and borrowed $10,000 on his credit card, he could consume $110,000 worth of stuff.  In this example, his debt to his personal GDP is just 10%.  But what if he could get more credit year after year and reached a point where his total debt reached $352,000 but his income remained the same.  His personal debt-to-GDP ratio would now be 352%.

 

If he could borrow at super low interest rates, maybe he could sustain the monthly loan payments. Maybe?  But how much more could he possibly borrow?  What lender would lend him more?  And what if those low rates began to rise?  How much debt can his $100,000 income cover?  Essentially, he has reached the end of his own debt cycle.

The United States is certainly not alone in this regard.  When you look all over the industrialized world, you see similar triple digit debt to GDP figures.

When this current debt super cycle ultimately ends, it is going to create economic pain on a scale that will be unlike anything that we have ever seen before.  The following comes from King World News

That is the inevitable consequence of 100 years of credit expansion from virtually nothing to $250 trillion, plus global unfunded liabilities of roughly $500 trillion, plus derivatives of $1.5 quadrillion. This is a staggering total of $2.25 quadrillion. Therefore, the question is not what could go wrong since it is guaranteed that all these liabilities will implode at some point. And when they do, it will bring misery to the world of a magnitude that no one could ever imagine.

 

It is of course very difficult to forecast the end of a major cycle. As this is unlikely to be a mere 100-year cycle but possibly a 2000-year cycle. It is also impossible to forecast how long the decline will take. Will it be gradual like the Dark Ages, which took 500 years after the fall of the Roman Empire? Or will the fall be much faster this time due to the implosion of the biggest credit bubble in world history? The latter is more likely, especially since the bubble will become a lot bigger before it implodes.

And there are certainly lots of signs that a global slowdown is already beginning.  For example, global trade growth has fallen below 2 percent for only the third time since the year 2000.  On each of the other occasions, we witnessed a horrible recession take place.  For more signs that economic conditions are deteriorating, please see my previous article entitled “Recession 2017? Things Are Happening That Usually Never Happen Unless A New Recession Is Beginning“.

Of course much of the globe is already in the midst of a horrible economic crisis.  Brazil is in the middle of their worst recession ever, and people are literally starving in Venezuela.  A new round of debt problems has erupted in Europe, with Greece, Portugal and Italy being the latest flashpoints.

Just like in 2007, many are mocking the idea that the a major economic downturn is coming to the United States.  They believe that the ridiculously high stock market valuations of today can stick around indefinitely, and they are putting their faith in politicians.

But it won’t be too long before a new economic crisis begins in America and the kind of civil unrest that I portray in “The Beginning Of The End” erupts all across the country.

I just don’t understand why more people cannot see this.  Government debt, corporate debt and consumer debt have all been growing much, much faster than the overall economy.  Can someone please explain to me how that could possibly be sustainable in the long-term?

Someone that I considered to be a mentor but that has since passed away once said that things would seem like they would be getting better for a little while before the next crash comes.

And it turned out that he was precisely correct.  We are in a season of time when economic conditions have appeared to be getting a little bit better in the United States, and this has blinded so many people to the truth of what is about to happen to us.

 

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algol_dog's picture

We got a another thousand years of "moar" debt to go.

Logan 5's picture
Logan 5 (not verified) algol_dog Mar 1, 2017 7:48 PM

I kno right?

 

It's like ~ OMG!!! Nero is dead!!! Rome is falling!!!

 

Then, about a century & a half later, COMMODUS shows up... (& even THAT still wasn't THE END)...

 

& to think that people are MORE STUPID today than they were back then... (if you don't believe me about that, then you didn't watch the *OSCARS*).

 

*-* ~ but you're FORGIVEN on that

This Might Hurt's picture

It must be by design that we never get a proper history or explanation of our money in school. Below a free video series, Econ 101, we all should have gotten in school.

http://www.themonetaryreset.com/search/label/How%20We%20Got%20Here?m=1

Logan 5's picture
Logan 5 (not verified) This Might Hurt Mar 1, 2017 7:58 PM

PROPER history or explanation of money (or anything having to do with the 'school system' at large), has nothing to do with the Askenazi jew agenda...

Mr. Universe's picture

It might be a "Wish You Were Here' moment (We're just two lost souls swimming in a fish bowl...) but never the less, truer words have never been written.

Central banking has enslaved us all, and doomed us to the next crisis, and there may be nothing we can do to stop it...

The only answer is education. People still don't know the extent of the fraud inherent in the system. For some it's willfull ignorance, for others, clueless. Given the current generation and world political climate, I'm in the "nothing we can do to stop it" camp.

_ArC_'s picture

Mathematically impossible to go on! It already began slowly...Then the "Tsunami" will hit!

The Management's picture

I dont think it will matter in the same way it did. Europe will mint national currencies again. Cryptocurrencies will surge. Gold will surge. And i really think information and labor are fast becoming currencies of their own in the age of outsourced everything and freelancing.

My point is there are just so many ways humanity can wake up in the morning and shrug disaster off. Many have had to do it since 2008 anyways.

Whats is a worry is that debt has been funding a class of people without which tend to burn things frequently.

Doña K's picture

What if the brother in the example files for bankruptsy?

So can the US.

Trump has the cojones to tell all, we are resetting and we are not paying anything. Why? Because we can not. 

Pronto the FED is out, new US money is created and the debt is gone. We do not give guarantees.

Let the world not buy our products, we are not going to buy theirs.

They will blink first, or they will ask for gold.

Mr. Trump, please buy all available gold, platinum and silver available with printed FRN's and pull the plug.

Sayonara. 

Grave's picture

debt is just another form of slavery psychopaths in power turned to after their previous slavery rackets blew up in their faces and cost a lot of them their heads.

usury was, is and always will be a crime against humanity and will be treated as such when the time comes.

and the time is coming, psychopaths in power, usurists, banksters and the rest of the humanoid waste will be exterminated.

no pity, no mercy, no remorse, no regret, no prisoners.

bamawatson's picture

another redundant same ole tout piece

send it to silver doctors; they will run it too

useless

vato poco's picture

it will continue - worldwide - until it can't. then it will collapse, and after a period of uncertainty and chaos, a new system will begin. 

samo samo

yogibear's picture

So, keep charging and buying stocks. DOW going beyond 40,000 soon enough.

Be totally in debt and buy the DOW indexes.

HRH Feant's picture
HRH Feant (not verified) Mar 1, 2017 7:42 PM

I stacked PMs. I am also planting a garden. When SHTF it is going to be messy.

vato poco's picture

not a bad strategy. just be aware (some) folks have been saying this stuff since...what...1952? 1963? 

sure, eventually they'll be right, but right now they're stuck in a 50 or 60-year losing streak. not exactly the stuff of legend. 

timing is everything, and being right but 60 years too early is pretty much just like being wrong in my book.

HRH Feant's picture
HRH Feant (not verified) vato poco Mar 1, 2017 8:09 PM

PMs are my personal pension plan and I don't plan on selling for 25 years.

The garden is a way to ensure high quality organic produce that I can eat this spring, summer, and fall.

Both are useful, one in the near present and the other in the distant future.

El Vaquero's picture

Either new energy tech comes on line soon, or you're not too soon.  We are nearing the end of the golden age of fossil fuels.  Besides, we need to change how agriculture works anyway.  I already have a couple hundred plants in my solo cup garden, and I still have more to go.  There are and will be more seed trays too, and then there is the direct sowing.  

HRH Feant's picture
HRH Feant (not verified) El Vaquero Mar 1, 2017 8:13 PM

There is nothing better than gardening to fill your soul. Watching plants grow from a seed is amazing. Preparing food from plants you have grown yourself? Even better!

Friend mentioned egg cartons as seed starters. The cardboard ones break down but even the plastic ones are good. The little covers keep in moisture while seeds are germinating. Good way to recycle stuff that you are going to throw away.

Happy planting El Vaq!

El Vaquero's picture

I get better food from it too.  I'm having to start a lot indoors this year for a couple of reasons.  I planted cereal rye as a cover crop this fall and I need to figure out how to get seed to germinate after knocking it down for mulch.  It'll stop smaller seeds from germinating if you don't plant into it correctly, and this is my first year trying it.  Also, rollie pollies have gotten out of control, and they'll kill 75% of my seedlings if I direct sow in some beds.  I have come to the conclusion that, when I have a problem like that, the solution is to add something to my system.  I'm looking for Muscovy ducks to eat the snails, rollie pollies and maggots that turn into annoying flies.  And provide meat and eggs.  

vic and blood's picture

I grew up calling them "rollie pollies", too. I understand that the books call them sow bugs. I had no idea that they were such a menace to seedlings. 

I had assumed that ducks were only good for comical purposes and lots of droppings. How about some Guinea hens? I have heard a lot of good about them, including voracious appetites for ticks,  if you can tolerate their bizarre calls. I only have personal experience with chickens and an occasional turkey.

El Vaquero's picture

I have had neighbors who have had guinea hens.  Those have to be some of the dumbest damned birds I have ever seen.  I've been told that they're good at going after insects.  As for the ducks, I specifically want the Muscovies.  They're smarter, even more comical, require less water, and are aggressive enough hunters that they'll even go after mice.  The less water is nice in my book.  I've had ducks and geese, and what they do to water is enough to convince me that the word 'foul' is derived from the word 'fowl.'  Muscovies are the only domestic duck not descended from Mallards.  Then there are the eggs, and the meat is reported to taste like a really good NY strip.  

 

I've also heard of rollie pollies being called pill bugs.  I watched one take down one of my seedlings today, and that was indoors.  Little bastard.  

green888's picture

Khaki Cambell ducks better foragers

Provocateur's picture

Rollie pollies and sow bugs are not the same thing.  They look similar, but sow bugs cannot roll into a complete ball.  Prolly have other differences as well.  My father was a farmer, loved pollies, hated does.  Idk why.

Joe A's picture

Nice idea about the egg cartons. Thanks.

El Vaquero's picture

Stack lead too.  My fucking AR-10 lower needs to come in so that I can see if the barrel that I have likes the Hornady ELD-Xs so that I can start stacking those.

HRH Feant's picture
HRH Feant (not verified) El Vaquero Mar 1, 2017 8:10 PM

Mr. Mossberg has plenty of fuel.

_ArC_'s picture

Ahhh atleast Im not Alone! .223 and .40 here plenty! Bring it on already!

spieslikeus's picture

Get an AR10/.308; trust a brother, it's worth it. Mine's an Armalite topped with a 7.62-calibrated ACOG, does the job nicely.

El Vaquero's picture

I went with DPMS pattern and 260 remington.  But I already have two other .308s.  

jm's picture

I guess the Black Plague was a cakewalk... What do you expect to hear from the economic collapse blog and the famous SHTFPlan.crap.

finametrics's picture

As long as the shlomos are in charge of this amusement park, I would venture to say that this roller coaster ride is far from over.

clsoed's picture

Theyl'l probably just keep scaling interest rates relative to the tax income of the government.

 

So; Interest rate  = Currentdebt/Tax Income.

 

So theoretically the borrowing capacity is pegged to employee income. if you as a govenrment want to spend more, the only way to do it is improve what corporations are paying workers.

 

Then the debt machine will prepetually sustainable.

gm_general's picture

The real action did not begin until the 80s. Prior to this time, debt service costs were negligable. Do an article on how defaulting on Bretton Woods set this in motion - I want to understand the detailed mechanics of it. I charted total interest costs (public + private) over GDP, what I found was when we went over 20% of total GDP in interest costs per year, we had a recession soon after. This level happened prior to the last two recessions. So now the interest costs per year are about $2.4T, or 15% of GDP. If the average rate rises by just 1/3, and that is not much, we are cooked. Total debt is going up by about $2.5T a year now too.

deimos178's picture

just last 30 more years and I'll be dead or having some hot filipino nurse scrape the oatmeal off my chin and I won't care.

Vigilante's picture

The hot ones NEVER end up as nurses.

bloofer's picture

At a more advanced age, anyone young looks hot. Or, as my late ex-mother-in-law used to say, "I never saw anyone young who wasn't pretty."

aloha_snakbar's picture

Its

just

fucking

debt.

It is not a good movie, a great song, the laughter of a child, a loyal pet, a good bottle of wine... IT IS NOTHING. If we all say FUCK THIS, and stop paying our bills tomorrow, I am pretty sure the next day, and the day after that, we will all still be alive.

 Fuck them all...

bloofer's picture

This is my instinctive reaction, as well. The idea that vast sums of "money" in the form of pixels on a computer screen are owed to someone in compensation for...mostly...nothing, seems to me to be pure fantasy. But, unfortunately, it is a fantasy that is enforced with guns. The fact that you don't subscribe to someone's delusional system does not mean they won't kill you and steal your stuff.

EuroPox's picture

OK there is no doubt that it does not look good BUT it depends who you owe.  If you owe the Mafia $10,000 and give them the bad news, they will kill you; a loan shark will break your legs but your mum will smile and say: "we will work something out". 

Governments can tax, so if it is domestic debt, they can work something out with the lenders (it will involve ctrl p as well); if it is foreign debt and you are stronger, in a fiat world, you can ctrl p or walk away, leaving your reputation in tatters but leaving them with the problem; if they are stronger, you might just start a war.

352% is really really bad but to decide what it means, it depends how that breaks down.

gdpetti's picture

These two charts pretty much sum up the situation and how it's done... parabolic chart patterns are showing up all over the place... but those in nature should be theones sending the real shivers down your back/mind.

http://kingworldnews.com/alert-as-dow-breaks-21000-here-is-a-major-warni...

illuminatus's picture

I'm sure you all know about the guy/girl that kept crying wolf.

Wannabee's picture

Krugman says it's all good. Nothing to see here

Stud Duck's picture

Idea's and philosophy are pretty, but history is violent!

TeethVillage88s's picture

I have to check the article.

Is this like Schimitta?

- 100 year Super Cycle? What is that something from Fiction? Jewish Fiction? Maybe Protocols of Zion?

"Protocols of Zion" and The New World Order
www.bibliotecapleyades.net/sociopolitica/esp_sociopol...
"Protocols of Zion" is the NWO Blueprint - August 31, 2003 ... able to acknowledge the very source of our rights and liberties and the very source of our laws. .... Along with Isaac Newton, Lyndon LaRouche lists Francis Bacon, Hobbs, Walpole, ...

EHM's picture

Big Deal! Stocks are up!

gdogus erectus's picture

It's all so rediculous.  All this debt.  It's really just a hidden way of some fuckers to skim off your payments.  $20T in "debt".  To who?  The international bankers?  Who cares.  It's not their money.  They just printed most of it into existence.  Except for a bunch of suckers who own T-bills, who would give a shit if it was 100% defaulted on?  It's all a scam.  Oh, yes - $8T of our debt it foreigned owned.  Who gives a shit!  They printed their money up too!  It's called a carry trade in the forex market.  I print and buy your debt if you print and buy my debt!  See?  Fun!  And everyone thinks that this is real debt.  It's a scam. 

This is why countries used to default on their debt all the time.  It didn't matter!  Ooh - bad credit for a couple years.  Then the banker print up fresh dollars to loan to the same bad credit countries again later.  Because it's NOT THEIR MONEY.  Now the IMF figured out how to steal REAL infrastructure from foreign countries that didn't pay the loans back.  Now it's serious for them.  But for us?  Who fucking cares?  Can't pay back unbacked liabilities.... boo hoo.  Who fucking cares!  Who are we paying medical and medicare to?  Lawyers and insurance companies?  Oh darn, can't pay them in the future?  WHO GIVES A SHIT.  It's all an allusion. 

Cabreado's picture

So who gives a shit and keep Printing, eh?

Quite an "allusion" you've got going yourself.

Consuelo's picture

 

 

Why is it that every time I see the name 'Snyder', I can't help but think of Dee Snyder and that video...

 

'You're all worthless & weak...!!!"

TaaDaa's picture

Excellent article. 

 

SHEPWAVE has been doing some references to the debt too. Good stuff.

 

Only analysts I know of who prove their calls with time stamped charts. 

 

It is one thing to write about these things. It is a completely who other matter to turn that knowledge into profits. I mean look at ZH. they have been bearish for over 5 years and a lot of their core readership has left; the good ones anyway. I had to get a new id not too long ago

 

Shepwave is the one analyst who deals with the cycles to a degree but more importantly they translate knowledge into direct profits by knowing when exactly to buy equities, gold and oil.  END OF STORY!!!

 

PROOF:

https://www.facebook.com/166578775325/photos/pcb.10154415126355326/10154...

 

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/166578775325/photos/pcb.10154415126355326/10154...