Initial Jobless Claims Collapse To Lowest In 44 Years

Tyler Durden's picture

Initial jobless claims plunged 19k last week to 223k. This is now the lowest level of initial jobless claims since March 1973, and is very close to the lowest levels since 1969.

This is now the longest period of declining initial jobless claims in US history (from March 2009 to March 2017)

 

Last week's drop was a 4 standard deviation beat of expectations...

 

The question is - is this as good as it gets?

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kliguy38's picture

I wurk.....I collect my EBT my disability my unemployment my state "free money"......and my off the book money

Delving Eye's picture

Low jobless claims because there are no jobs to be fired from.

hannah's picture

low jobless claims because no one is employed in the jobs that can have 'claims' when you get laid off......the population in these jobs is going to zero so the employeement rate will follow that number to zero. when we hit 100% actualunemployment the initial claims will be at zero. that is the way the math is setup.....

GotAFriendInBen's picture

Everybody's working

Problem is 90% are working for peanuts

GlassHouse101's picture

yep, and CPI continues to climb. . Stagflation baby.

LawsofPhysics's picture

I don't think you know what that word means.  "Communism" means that all productive capacity and property is owned by the community...

That isn't the case now asshat.  What you have been experiencing for 40+ years is cronyism/fascism.

Bailouts and "mark to fantasy" bullshit while a small group of people print themselves all the "money" they want...

"Full faith and credit"

tick tock motherfucker.

Giant Meteor's picture

Indeed, and may I add, the money shot.

Arrow4Truth's picture

"Bailouts and "mark to fantasy" bullshit while a small group of people print themselves all the "money" they want..."

"Full faith and credit"

... and that is what is referred to as a capital-ism.

MachoMan's picture

I don't think you know what that word means.  "Communism" means that all productive capacity and property is owned by the community...

That isn't the case now asshat.  What you have been experiencing for 40+ years is cronyism/fascism.

You're shitting me...  When has a nation-state level communism behaved as you define it?  You can lay claim to ownership of something as part of the community, but good luck collecting on that claim.  Further, hopefully you don't starve in the interim. 

All of the traditional economic systems are simply ways of describing how the average person gets fucked.  I also dispute that the demand by any collective for its populace to economically behave a certain way actually results in the demanded behavior.  The different economic systems largely end up being distinctions without a difference for virtually all involved.  In the end, all you can say for certain is that humans compete against one another and some end up being more socially successful than others.

fbazzrea's picture

isms are schisms; it matters not the prefix when 99% get the shaft and 1% the gold.

 

BigFatUglyBubble's picture

Or went into an underground off the books economy, prostitution etc

Giant Meteor's picture

Several charactor's who regularly post on ZH, claim to be makin $7000.00 per month from their sisters basement.

Omen IV's picture

"Everybody's working"

 

No they are not - When you work part time gigs the ability to file UE Insurance is almost impossible -- so now all the new jobs are 55% plus part time - the appearance is different than actual

 

Fake Unepmployment Rate

Giant Meteor's picture

The complete dumbing down of the metric, has been a total success!

 

canisdirus's picture

They're working part time, have been out of work so long they could never take UI, or they haven't had stable employment for a long enough period to claim UI. Temps on 6-month contracts don't get UI when they're unemployed, nor do the people working part time as baristas in all the trendy little coffee shops/shacks/etc. The U-3 (headline unemployment number) is partially based on UI claims, which is one of the reasons it keeps going down.

It really hit home yesterday when my MIL stopped by one to get her latte. She told the girl she didn't recognize her and asked if she was new, to which the girl replied that she had worked there nearly a year, but only part time on weekends until this week. My MIL asked if she was happy with more hours and the girl said that she couldn't do more than she has, with this newly expanded schedule at this place and the two other coffee shops she works for, she simply doesn't have enough hours in the day (she gave us a list of her work pattern and it was shocking - four 13-hour days, one 11-hour day, and two 7-hour days). People like her cannot file for UI.

Most people under 30-35 are in this boat if they work (none of my siblings currently have full-time work) and a large fraction simply can't find anything, to the point that some have never worked (my sister didn't find a job until she was almost 27, and it's only a couple hours a day).

HalinCA's picture

Sweet Jesus ... my condolences ... may I ask what they have their degrees in if they went to college? 

MachoMan's picture

Sweet Jesus ... my condolences ... may I ask what they have their degrees in if they went to college?

I think the more important question than academic achievement would be what personality disorder they all have...  for the vast majority of available jobs, education is largely irrelevant and, at least in the private sector, a college degree may be a scarlett letter (too many millenials making demands above their competence and work ethic just because of getting a sheet of paper from a college - much like a black belt in karate from a mcdojo).

canisdirus's picture

I know a lot of mid-late-generation millennials that didn't work until well into their 20s. There are very few entry-level jobs available to people without a college education or solid trade skills (which are difficult to get). The competition for even menial no-skill jobs (with the exception of 2004-2007 and 2014-present) has been so fierce since 2000-2001 that people often expect degrees when hiring for these positions. One of the major sources for people in the engineering department at my employer is the production line, where everyone holds a degree in something (mostly in STEM fields, as the VP of Manufacturing lists it as a requirement on all job descriptions). Aspiring people in there know we sometimes transfer from the floor on a trial basis, so they try to get on our good sides in hopes of getting a shot at an office job.

Millennials in much of the country have it far harder than most older people realize. If they haven't had it hard, they're exceptional, lucky, in the right place, or some combination of these.

canisdirus's picture

Barista: Unknown, although I would not be surprised if she had a degree, considering well over 50% of women over 25 and under 50 completed college, even though that degree is usually in some field that will never lead to a decent job.

Siblings: For various reasons, I was the only one among my siblings that went to college. I had to work to pay for tuition and books. Luckily, my skills were in demand at the time. My siblings didn't become adults until after the dot-com bust, so work was never an option (not that they had the skills) and tuition was already unaffordable. My brother that works as a part-time assistant mechanic makes the most among my siblings, but far from enough to live independently. Another brother killed himself after UI ran out during the darkest days of the "great recession" with a young family to feed (he busted his ass trying, but there were no jobs, and this was a kid that never turned down even the worst of jobs...). My sister simply lacked any marketable skills or work experience, so it took her years to find a job. Her company doesn't employ anyone that isn't a manager for more than a handful of hours a day to avoid tripping Obamacare rules about health insurance, so in a twisted way the law helped her find a job because her employer had to massively increase their workforce to keep everyone working short enough hours to avoid it. Everyone in her position there is either a millennial or gen-Z.

Raffie's picture

As people get kicked off of unemployment benefits that number lowers.

Also a person working 2 part time jobs is seen as a +1 for jobs.

Hope President Trump removes the illusion OhBummer put in place.

The good news is that robot job placement is going up.

Quinvarius's picture

You have to have a job to lose a job.  Obama set Trump up for massive success if he just stops actively trying to kill the economy like Obama did.

Son of Captain Nemo's picture

No worries. Unlike Obama Trump has "Zipper Head" Mattis to start a conflagration in Syria and Eastern Europe!

"FULL EMPLOYMENT" for ANYONE that loves wearing camo 24/7 with an assault rifle and enjoys an adventure on psychotropic drugs!...

Cause America "WHERE FREEDOM ISN'T FREE" wants control of Russia's natural resources to be sold in USD ONLY!!!

Mena Arkansas's picture

The dems and repub cucks are too busy trying to tear down the Trump administration to be bothered by something as trivial as jobs for the average American.

Now if you were talking jobs for rapefugees they could get on board just like Starbucks.

FreeShitter's picture

Full employment baby! Yeah!

Giant Meteor's picture

My first thought as well.

"Look ma, ain't it grand? The wind stopped blowin!"

Erek's picture

Are the claims so low because there are no jobs left to lose?

buzzsaw99's picture

all the jobs good enough to make it worthwhile to file for ue are gone.

gatorengineer's picture

In all seriousness, I filed last week.  Was laid off largely out of the blue.  A week into the job search as a senior engineering professional, and I will be lucky to take a job with a 20 percent cut.

thevekja's picture

Sorry to hear that gator.  I am a young engineer (2 years out of undergrad) and reading comments like this makes me even more unsure about my future as a mechanical engineer in the US.  I'm thinking I need to transfer into something more tech/data oriented to stay ahead of the unabating H1B tide, as day by day I see the number and quality of available engineering positions diminishing.

Best of luck to you in your job search!

canisdirus's picture

It is just as bad in tech, possibly worse. EEs are being flooded by H1Bs (and various other work visa programs) as well.

The bad thing for MEs is that it seems like their market is ultra-competitive to begin with. I wrote a long comment covering the situation in engineering and tech not too long ago that touched on these points.

Personally, I have over 20 years of experience in tech and unless something changes, I'd never recommend a STEM field to any young people as they will be very lucky if they can find any type of job. Most MEs I know work as assemblers for light industrial companies.

thevekja's picture

Thanks for the unique perspective canis, I appreciate the heads up about the tech sector.  I think my only chance at this point is learning a skillset that allows me to become a contractor/self-employed, and find work as it becomes available.

At this point in my early 20's, with the world looking the way it does, I am not very optimistic about the future.  My main goals are zero debt (almost there), find meaningful work and see as much of the world as I can before SHTF.  I'm half hoping for it at this point, as the slow slide into global serfdom is going to be even worse IMO.

gatorengineer's picture

Run, don't walk to get out of Engineering.  There is NO future in it unless you are perhaps biomedical, or a roads and bridges civil (good luck competing with the H1B Indians here)  Only suggestions are Education (until that collapses under the tax burden), or Medical to at least have a job (salaries are being squeezed there as well.

Other idea is to learn a trade, welding, plumbing or electrical.  I would like those odds a hell of alot better than engineering.  Sorry just my 2 cents, but when and if you find a 50+ yr old engineer that would encourage a youngster to get in let me know that would be a first. 

HenryHall's picture

>> Run, don't walk to get out of Engineering.

If you are an engineer and can afford it then do 3 years of lawschool and become a patent attorney.

Giant Meteor's picture

At some point, I expect forensic accounting will be a hit.

thevekja's picture

gator & henry, great career advice from both of you.  I'm trying to avoid the insane debt burden of more school if I can, but it may be unavoidable at some point.  Lots of changes ahead for me; currently living in the South but probably moving to WA/West Coast early next year, so once I find somewhere I want to live I think my career options will become clearer.

So glad that I came across ZH, I've learned more on this site in four months than in 15+ years of formal education.  Thank you to all the great contributors who give their $.02

HenryHall's picture

The debt will be trivial after hyper-inflation. We don't know when the hyper-inflation is coming, but within four years is a very good bet.

In the very worst case you can work as a US Patent Attorney overseas (eg Hong Kong) and thereby escape a mountain of debt. But the worst case is unlikely.

Oh, and go to where lawschool is less expensive. For example Gainesville.

HalinCA's picture

Where does Material Science fit into the mix? 

In Healthcare there is a lot of excitmeent around using invented materials for biomedical purposes.

barysenter's picture

If you have an aptitude for engineering and aren't a candy ass alien economic tourist, snowflake, pussyhatard or dickhead join the army corp of engineers and practice blowing up strategic assets. You're going to need it where we're going.

HenryHall's picture

>> Initial Jobless Claims Collapse To Lowest In 44 Years

 

Freedom is having nothing left to lose.

No job to lose, no house to lose, no marriage to lose, and no prospects of regaining any of them, ever.

No jobs to lose means no new jobless claims. Part time waiter jobs don't create jobless claims because there is nothing to be gained by claiming.

 

Fortunately that is not me, I eventually grabbed the bird in the hand and own a house, and little else, but it is free and clear, no debts on anything. A 12 year old full size truck owned from new and set to run another 12 years, it will see me out. It's easy to have no debts when no-one will lend you money.

thevekja's picture

As the Buddhists say, "The root of all suffering is attachment."

canisdirus's picture

Yes, pretty much. Part timers and H1Bs are about all there are anymore. Neither can claim UI benefits.

It has the knock-on effect of reducing the U-3 rate because that number is based on UI claims.

rejected's picture

Okay ZH,,, where's your "Everything's Awesome" lego video?

Eagle40's picture

LPR has 96 million not working. Unemployment claims or the U3 is based on losing a job and collecting 100% unemployment. If you are working part time you can still collect unemployment if the wages are less than the total amount awarded. We have a very serious unemployment problem when many are not working or working for less than they made before. This is such a lie but what do you expect from the government. Lies. 

Eagle40's picture

LPR has 96 million not working. Unemployment claims or the U3 is based on losing a job and collecting 100% unemployment. If you are working part time you can still collect unemployment if the wages are less than the total amount awarded. We have very serious unemployment problem when many are not working or working for less than they made before. This is such a lie bit what do you expect from the government. Lies.