Trump Effect: ADP Employment Surges Near Most In 6 Years On Record Goods-Producing Job Gains

Tyler Durden's picture

Following January's surge in employment (biggest gain in 7 months), February's ADP print exploded higher to 298k (5 sigma above all expectations). This is the third biggest monthly employment gain of the expansion. It appears the 'Trump Effect' is the biggest driver as the ADP payroll surge was mostly due to a record surge in employment for goods-producing industries.

Private sector employment surged by 298,000 for the month, with goods producers adding 106,000. Construction jobs swelled by 66,000 and manufacturing added 32,000.

3rd best month of the recovery:


This is 5 standard deviations above the 187k expectation....


Led by a record surge in goods-producing jobs...


The details:


"Confidence is playing a large role," Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, told CNBC. "Businesses are anticipating a lot of good stuff — tax cuts, less regulation. They are hiring more aggressively."

March rate-hike odds were 98% going into ADP and we suspect it will uptick from here.

“February proved to be an incredibly strong month for employment with increases we have not seen in years,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Gains were driven by a surge in the goods sector, while we also saw the information industry experience a notable increase.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics said, “February was a very good month for workers. Powering job growth were the construction, mining and manufacturing industries. Unseasonably mild winter weather undoubtedly played a role. But near record high job openings and record low layoffs underpin the entire job market.”

Some more visual details:

Change in Nonfarm Private Employment


Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment


Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size

Full Breakdown:

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     ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 298,000 Jobs in February<br />" width="598" />

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JarMyMetric's picture

Fascism has always been good for bussiness.

onewayticket2's picture

...and you folks wonder how you could have lost 1200 seats over the last few years.

Murderface's picture

Yeah, we knew how well Nazi Germany's business evironment thrived.  And Italy?   phewww...   A chicken parmigiana in every pot..



TeamDepends's picture

The Nazis considered themselves socialists, it's right there in the name. Just because fascist Google has changed the definition of fascism to be "right-wing", doesn't make it so. You socialists, commies, and fascists are all cut from the same cloth. You can believe Hitlery won the popular vote until the cows come home, the truth is Trump won in a landslide. And congratulations on your choice to fight FOR the pedophile totalitarian bankers, you will be richly rewarded.

tmosley's picture

No, it hasnt (Spain under Franco starved until the Vatican forced capitalist reforms), and this isn't fascism (regulations and other forms of government over-reach are being pulled back).

If you look at Trump and see Hitler, you are hallucinating.

LetThemEatRand's picture

The Trump/Hitler comparison is silly propaganda, but there is some truth to the idea that Trump is showing fascist tendencies by any modern definition of the term.  Fascism is the merger of private and public sector, such that the two operate together for the benefit of large corporations.  Trump the candidate was about as unfascist as you could get, even running advertisements calling out Hillary for her cozy relationship with Wall Street.  Trump the President seems pretty cozy with the same bankers and corporate titans.  The most obvious example I've seen over the last few years of the fascism in our system is the concept of "too big to fail/too big to jail."  I don't see Trump doing anything to change that.

floomby's picture

The high risk Obamacare subsidies to the insurance companies were pretty fascist, and so is the indiviual mandate. The government inexorably becomes tangled in the private sector over time, healthcare has been heading that direction for many years before Obama anyways. FATCA is another peice of legislation where the government strong arms buisinesses (in this case foreign banks), the FDA clearly has enomous power for controling who can sell drugs, defence contractors also get government business. There are plenty of things that fall into the fascist catagory.

JoeySandwiches's picture

i've noticed a pattern with these new anti-Trump, pro-establishment accounts here. I've seen five or six of you and you're all around 20-30 weeks old.

How much are you getting paid to troll here? You know this isnt a place where you're gonna change many minds.

giovanni_f's picture

irrelevant. adp report was rubbish under Obama, adp report is rubbish under Trump. at some point this credit fueled shitshow will yield to reality whatever the trigger. black swans flocking...

Hal n back's picture

most of jobs created in the small business sectors fwiw.

With malls closing stores closing, layoffs everywhere,


I hve not seen any articles about hiring on a big scale. HAs anybody else seen companies saying they are hiring, and if so was that an increase or a replacements.

all we see is automation and margins being squeezed which ends up as a RIF.


stocker84's picture

Thi this isn't fascism... This is 340 million people... Half of which believe that this president is not good for the country. The other half is wishing on a dream that president trump or any other president for that matter will be able to pay down 20 trillion. Out isn't going to happen.


It's the end of the world as we know it, and i feel fine.

But I'm a realist.

I often wondered what it would be like to release my grasp on reality, but too scared to do it for fear of not being able to go back.

What's it like, everyone? What's it like thinking or children's children won't be able to work 40 hour weeks to make ends meet.. more like 100 got weeks.  Do you know how many hours a week there are in a week? Subtract the time you sleep. The math isn't complex. We can't inflate or balance our way out of this. Denial. 

Welcome to the matrix, folks. 

Sorry for the typos 

ThreeRs's picture

But you predicate your entire opinion on being unable to pay down the Debt?


This isn't searching for the theory of everything.


You can work your way out of anything, but you have to work, to work your way out.


This is high level accounting, and the eventual downsizing, of the Federal Government. Just because the numbers are bigger, don't mean they can't be managed.


Basic math is still basic math. Hell, a DOJ slush fund was just discovered to promote Leftist-only causes. Right there, we just cut 14 billion in hidden expeditures, i.e waste.


Whole lotta waste going on in Government. All of which can be cut.

bshirley1968's picture

We are way beyond basic math.  Trying to dumb it down so you feel like you have a handle on it won't fix it.

$14 billion?  Well, you just paid 3 days of interest.

There is this math "thingy" called the law of exponential, and it's pretty bad ass.  All you "work" people are making me lmao.  There are not enough people on the planet, hours in the day, or raw material in existence to generate enough revenue, GDP, or whatever to pay down or pay back the debt.

This is a house falling apart and rotten to the foundation.  One would be stupid to try and remodel it.  It will have to be completely torn down.  Never going to fix this without a lot of pain and destruction, and for damn sure ain't one president going to get it done.

Hal n back's picture

its called the power of compounding and if we had a real interest rate, we woudl be over 25 tril in debt now.

there is only so much thatcan be shifted to the public.

We wil finad out how much that is and when that wil be. Pick a number and date-any number and date.


NDXTrader's picture

Yes, fascists are well known for cutting regulations

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

How about putting some snowflakes to work.

Oh...wait...that was a micro-aggression.

My bad.

Edit - I consider that down arrow to be a micro-aggression. Take it

Edit 2 - TWO down arrows? OMG! OMG! OMG! I'm really feeling the hate people. OMG!

/humor just in case it wasn't glaringly obvious. Which can no longer be taken for granted here on ZH.

cossack55's picture

Go long razor wire

mily's picture

UST paper being sold today big time, lets wait for risk parity funds to puke equities

Quinvarius's picture

Amazing what happens when the President isn't a thieving moron Communist.

jamesmmu's picture

But DOW didnt move much... whats wrong?

youarelost's picture

We have had 2 rounds of layoffs since tnaksgiving. There is another planned in late march.  Mortgage industry

cashtoash's picture

if you keep this up, we will run out of workers. May need to bring back all those depotees and H1B's and even refugees

jamesmmu's picture

Rate hike 100% now? OMG, you guys forgot, market hates certainty, will DOW start to drop here? you never know.

FreeShitter's picture

Its been said a million can pause/dip/get spooked even.............. but never drop.

KansasCrude's picture

TOTAL UNMITIGATED hey we need some backup on that rate increase.   Mark Zandi biggest clown going.

Itsarap's picture

Great the economy is booming again!Now time for the rate hikes!!!

lasvegaspersona's picture

Yellen can fix the Trump expansion. She wouldn't hurt a hair on Obama's head but let Trump get a good jobs number and 'rates must be raised...immediately'.

Trump should at least call this to the people's attention. We are ultimately screwed either way but not to let the folks see why this is unfolding now would be a (how did Obama say it?) a teachable moment missed.

Itsarap's picture

The economy is great again so you hike rates,You would'nt want to hike rates under poor economic conditions.

I am Jobe's picture

Does this include Blowjobs and Hookers? Single Moms selling Breast Milk and looking to shack up as part of living? 

lester1's picture

Janet Yellen and her cronies at the Federal Reserve have been given orders from the globalists to raise interest rates and trigger an economic collapse. It will start in the bond market. There will be no new QE's or help from the Fed. The globalist elite feel a major crash is the only way to stop President Trump and his agenda. The liberal media will blame the crash on Trump.


But in the end it will backfire on Yellen and the globalists. The wealthy have the most to lose !!

FreeShitter's picture

You been listening way too much to alex jones man.

BigFatUglyBubble's picture

(((Alex Jones))) "snuck" into bohemian grove... not even a trained spy could sneak in there, let alone fatass Alex and a camera crew.

FreeShitter's picture

Exactly.... plus  jones' obnoxious personality is dead a giveaway.

Itsarap's picture

The economy is great again and that is when you'd want rate hikes,You only don't want to rate hikes under weak economic conditions.

DrDre's picture

Mark Zandi: "The exceptionally warm winter has worked wonders for the seasonal adjustments ..."

youngman's picture

I think Trump has turned the narative to bringing backs jobs to the USA..and people are starting to think that way will take time...but the next five years I bet we see manufacturing growth again in the USA....and for me that is a good thing...give people a job and they get respect and a life....much better than welfare...

KansasCrude's picture

I think you are correct in his narrative however don't think its happening or at least not yet.   What is happening is the number of jobs are in freefall especially in retail.     I talked with several people in December that had or were contemplating retirement from longterm fulltime jobs.   They have retired over the past 60 days.   I also talked to a number of young underemployed (part timers)  whom were seeking fulltime work and interviewing....they are still at part time jobs a couple with fewer hours than last December.  As many have discussed we are  BEHIND the market rates and the FED needs higher rates to entice buyers (besides themselves).  Increasingly businesses are coming to terms with lower sales and revenues....if you are going to sell less gotta raise the prices or shut down.    We are at the point where infaltion is going to start skyrocketing IMO.  Higher rates will contribute to that.  Its not going to make things better contrary but at this point its all about them and a different stream of BULLSHIT.  Don't know how the 3/15 Debt Ceiling is going to play out but stockingup on extra popcorn.  The speed of the decline is going to accelerate...

Fiat Burner's picture

Delusional hope has become an epedemic. Hiring based on politcian campaign promises? Not smart. 

Trump is full of hot air. Half the shit he's promised is never going to happen.

BigWillyStyle87's picture
BigWillyStyle87 (not verified) Mar 8, 2017 9:58 AM

Honestly, how many people believe this? I havent seen any new businesses opening in my area, only seeing them close down. 

pebblewriter's picture

Indeed.  Should we expect more honesty from the data providers just because there's a new guy in the White House?  I'll remain a skeptic, thank you very much.


GRDguy's picture

Yeah, "producing more goods" that ordinary folks can't afford to buy at the malls.

hotrod's picture

I thought malls and retail were going extinct.  Open more stores we're going to need them.

Iconoclast's picture

Er, guys, this is good news. Accept it for what it is, close on 300 thousand extra jobs for your fellow citizens have been created and filled. Rejoice. There'll be plenty of time for doom porn hitting us, but this is not one of those days.

Defiated's picture

300,000 jobs created? 'one'

government stats formula

Bullshitnumbers into equation =  Bullshitnumbers out!!

khakuda's picture

While Janet Yellen gently sleeps.

Let's face it, you can't get much more behind the curve with regard to tightening than sitting on your hands with rates near zero and well below the inflation rate for 8.5 years and counting.  The asset bubble makers at the Fed are alive and well.