Trump Effect: ADP Employment Surges Near Most In 6 Years On Record Goods-Producing Job Gains

Tyler Durden's picture

Following January's surge in employment (biggest gain in 7 months), February's ADP print exploded higher to 298k (5 sigma above all expectations). This is the third biggest monthly employment gain of the expansion. It appears the 'Trump Effect' is the biggest driver as the ADP payroll surge was mostly due to a record surge in employment for goods-producing industries.

Private sector employment surged by 298,000 for the month, with goods producers adding 106,000. Construction jobs swelled by 66,000 and manufacturing added 32,000.

3rd best month of the recovery:


This is 5 standard deviations above the 187k expectation....


Led by a record surge in goods-producing jobs...


The details:


"Confidence is playing a large role," Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, told CNBC. "Businesses are anticipating a lot of good stuff — tax cuts, less regulation. They are hiring more aggressively."

March rate-hike odds were 98% going into ADP and we suspect it will uptick from here.

“February proved to be an incredibly strong month for employment with increases we have not seen in years,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Gains were driven by a surge in the goods sector, while we also saw the information industry experience a notable increase.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics said, “February was a very good month for workers. Powering job growth were the construction, mining and manufacturing industries. Unseasonably mild winter weather undoubtedly played a role. But near record high job openings and record low layoffs underpin the entire job market.”

Some more visual details:

Change in Nonfarm Private Employment


Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment


Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size

Full Breakdown:

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     ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 298,000 Jobs in February<br />" width="598" />

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Cognitive Dissonance's picture

How about putting some snowflakes to work.

Oh...wait...that was a micro-aggression.

My bad.

Edit - I consider that down arrow to be a micro-aggression. Take it

Edit 2 - TWO down arrows? OMG! OMG! OMG! I'm really feeling the hate people. OMG!

/humor just in case it wasn't glaringly obvious. Which can no longer be taken for granted here on ZH.

cossack55's picture

Go long razor wire

mily's picture

UST paper being sold today big time, lets wait for risk parity funds to puke equities

Quinvarius's picture

Amazing what happens when the President isn't a thieving moron Communist.

jamesmmu's picture

But DOW didnt move much... whats wrong?

youarelost's picture

We have had 2 rounds of layoffs since tnaksgiving. There is another planned in late march.  Mortgage industry

cashtoash's picture

if you keep this up, we will run out of workers. May need to bring back all those depotees and H1B's and even refugees

jamesmmu's picture

Rate hike 100% now? OMG, you guys forgot, market hates certainty, will DOW start to drop here? you never know.

FreeShitter's picture

Its been said a million can pause/dip/get spooked even.............. but never drop.

KansasCrude's picture

TOTAL UNMITIGATED hey we need some backup on that rate increase.   Mark Zandi biggest clown going.

Itsarap's picture

Great the economy is booming again!Now time for the rate hikes!!!

lasvegaspersona's picture

Yellen can fix the Trump expansion. She wouldn't hurt a hair on Obama's head but let Trump get a good jobs number and 'rates must be raised...immediately'.

Trump should at least call this to the people's attention. We are ultimately screwed either way but not to let the folks see why this is unfolding now would be a (how did Obama say it?) a teachable moment missed.

Itsarap's picture

The economy is great again so you hike rates,You would'nt want to hike rates under poor economic conditions.

I am Jobe's picture

Does this include Blowjobs and Hookers? Single Moms selling Breast Milk and looking to shack up as part of living? 

lester1's picture

Janet Yellen and her cronies at the Federal Reserve have been given orders from the globalists to raise interest rates and trigger an economic collapse. It will start in the bond market. There will be no new QE's or help from the Fed. The globalist elite feel a major crash is the only way to stop President Trump and his agenda. The liberal media will blame the crash on Trump.


But in the end it will backfire on Yellen and the globalists. The wealthy have the most to lose !!

FreeShitter's picture

You been listening way too much to alex jones man.

BigFatUglyBubble's picture

(((Alex Jones))) "snuck" into bohemian grove... not even a trained spy could sneak in there, let alone fatass Alex and a camera crew.

FreeShitter's picture

Exactly.... plus  jones' obnoxious personality is dead a giveaway.

Itsarap's picture

The economy is great again and that is when you'd want rate hikes,You only don't want to rate hikes under weak economic conditions.

DrDre's picture

Mark Zandi: "The exceptionally warm winter has worked wonders for the seasonal adjustments ..."

youngman's picture

I think Trump has turned the narative to bringing backs jobs to the USA..and people are starting to think that way will take time...but the next five years I bet we see manufacturing growth again in the USA....and for me that is a good thing...give people a job and they get respect and a life....much better than welfare...

KansasCrude's picture

I think you are correct in his narrative however don't think its happening or at least not yet.   What is happening is the number of jobs are in freefall especially in retail.     I talked with several people in December that had or were contemplating retirement from longterm fulltime jobs.   They have retired over the past 60 days.   I also talked to a number of young underemployed (part timers)  whom were seeking fulltime work and interviewing....they are still at part time jobs a couple with fewer hours than last December.  As many have discussed we are  BEHIND the market rates and the FED needs higher rates to entice buyers (besides themselves).  Increasingly businesses are coming to terms with lower sales and revenues....if you are going to sell less gotta raise the prices or shut down.    We are at the point where infaltion is going to start skyrocketing IMO.  Higher rates will contribute to that.  Its not going to make things better contrary but at this point its all about them and a different stream of BULLSHIT.  Don't know how the 3/15 Debt Ceiling is going to play out but stockingup on extra popcorn.  The speed of the decline is going to accelerate...

Fiat Burner's picture

Delusional hope has become an epedemic. Hiring based on politcian campaign promises? Not smart. 

Trump is full of hot air. Half the shit he's promised is never going to happen.

BigWillyStyle87's picture
BigWillyStyle87 (not verified) Mar 8, 2017 8:58 AM

Honestly, how many people believe this? I havent seen any new businesses opening in my area, only seeing them close down. 

pebblewriter's picture

Indeed.  Should we expect more honesty from the data providers just because there's a new guy in the White House?  I'll remain a skeptic, thank you very much.


GRDguy's picture

Yeah, "producing more goods" that ordinary folks can't afford to buy at the malls.

hotrod's picture

I thought malls and retail were going extinct.  Open more stores we're going to need them.

Iconoclast's picture

Er, guys, this is good news. Accept it for what it is, close on 300 thousand extra jobs for your fellow citizens have been created and filled. Rejoice. There'll be plenty of time for doom porn hitting us, but this is not one of those days.

Defiated's picture

300,000 jobs created? 'one'

government stats formula

Bullshitnumbers into equation =  Bullshitnumbers out!!

khakuda's picture

While Janet Yellen gently sleeps.

Let's face it, you can't get much more behind the curve with regard to tightening than sitting on your hands with rates near zero and well below the inflation rate for 8.5 years and counting.  The asset bubble makers at the Fed are alive and well.

J bones's picture

I think the jobs added were less than whats being lost. 1 step forward 2 steps back. But we know how is goes... any news is good news yeah yeah

Hohum's picture

I venture it was about 100% weather related.

F.A. Hayek's picture

I gave up on mainstream media years ago so don't care one way or the other, but point out for conversation sake that the jobs report is not on NYT, msnbc, reuters or yahoo finance. Very strange, almost as if it's a coordinated effort.

PurpleNIRPle's picture
PurpleNIRPle (not verified) Mar 8, 2017 10:54 AM


Catahoula's picture

Big number! Deregulatory environment and business guidance on tax legislation going forward having a positive effect across sectors. Hopefully, Republicans find their balls and realize the significance of them.

coast1's picture

not trying to be a non trump person, he is a billion times better than hillary, but why do you guys believe these charts?

I dont.

hooligan2009's picture

the surge in hospitality/leisure must be from hookers for men married to libtard women going to the pink rally in DC - expect another blip (sic) for today

Publicus's picture

We are all Donald J Trump now.