US Fertility Rate At Lowest Point Since Records Began In 1909

Tyler Durden's picture

Via Patrick Cox of MauldinEconomics.com,

The US fertility rate fell again last year, marking the lowest rate of reproduction since the CDC started keeping records in 1909. This prompted the amusing Bloomberg headline, “Make America Mate Again.”

The above chart shows that in 2015, there were only 62.5 births per 1,000 women of childbearing age. That fertility rate dropped even further, touching 62.3 births per 1,000 women, in the first half of 2016.

Demographic Headwinds

To put the fertility rate in perspective, it is now at about 1.85 births per woman. To maintain a stable population requires at least 2.1 births per woman. The US has been at or below the replacement fertility rate since 1972, as the chart below shows.

 

Demographers worry that a dwindling birth rate will hurt economic growth and tax revenues needed to fund transfer payments to a growing elderly population. Some project that fertility rates will rise when the economy expands.

If the Trump administration achieves higher economic growth, it’s unlikely to do so fast enough to support the mandated 9% increase in entitlement spending for older Americans without more deficit spending. Trump says he intends to preserve Social Security and Medicare spending levels, but he seems unaware of the demographic headwinds we are sailing into.

Few policymakers grasp the profound impact of an inverting demographic pyramid, simply because it has never happened before.

The Cure for a Broken Dependency Ratio

History does show, however, that there’s been a persistent downward ratchet effect in the US fertility rate: the downward movement may be temporarily interrupted, but then it resumes again.

Moreover, this is a long-term trend. Fertility rates began falling prior to World War II, despite the temporary uptick that led to the baby boom (blue segment of line). This chart shows births per 1,000 people in the US.

In short, the population dynamics that have broken the dependency ratio and created the unfunded liability crisis worsened in 2016. This dynamic won’t change fast enough to prevent a crisis that can only be fixed by extending health spans.

With longer health spans, older people can live healthier and longer and be more economically productive. They can then support their own retirements instead of relying on fewer and poorer young people to do so.

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Subscribe to Patrick Cox’s Investment Newsletter, Tech Digest

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AllTimeWhys's picture

Don't look at me, it's hard to find any woman worth pinning to the wall when you live in a liberal hellhole city.

Save_America1st's picture

Hey, I asked...but Ivanka was already taken. ;-)

knukles's picture

Lots of young people (late 20s early 30's) do not want to bring kids into what they perceive to be a dangerous madhouse

CheapBastard's picture

Cut the child tax credit and encourage people who can afford and educate a kid to have them.

GUS100CORRINA's picture

One phrase for what is happening with birth rates: DEMOGRAPHIC BOMB!

A lot of material on the web that discusses the subject. 

I think CHINA very RECENTLY has seen the light, but it maybe too late.

Yes, all the WEST needs is more LADY GAGA and forget having a family.

Antifaschistische's picture

a dwindling birth rate will hurt economic growth...

...so, tell me...if I live on an Island...let's call it - Maui, and you tell me this year there's 100,000 people on the island, but in 50 years, there may only be 95,000 people on the island....explain to me why I should be so worried about that if I'm not a .gov employee that makes money from taxing everyone?

this same rational the scaremongers are using to justify importing more foreigners.  I say, shut the door and let us deal with our population issues on our own.   Chances are, having 5,000 fewer mouths to feed isn't going to hurt us that much on Maui anyway.

J S Bach's picture

The birthrate ain't low for latinos, arabs and negroes... only whitey.  Why?  Feminism, altruism and an over-burden of taxation to pay for the aforementioned peoples' welfare benefits.  Not hard to figure out really.  What would a solution be?  Hmmmmmm.....

Blankone's picture

We need to see a chart just for the whites.

And it will continue to drop for whites, the new thing has gone from coming out lesbian to coming out a lesbian feminist with shorter hair. 

MGTOW101 on youtube

peippe's picture

the short kd lange hair, 

the flannel, 

the 'tude, 

not enough viagra in the world to counter-act that.

Itinerant's picture

One thing people are forgetting to mention: the PILL

A lot of children were born without their parents' child wish in times past.

Much of what has changed in people's attitudes towards sex(ual morality) is directly connected with the altered nexus of cause & effect.

BabaLooey's picture

FACT

2016 U.S. CENSUS

WHITE POPULATION: 194 MILLION

U.S. HISPANIC POPULATION: 50 MILLION

U.S. BLACK POPULATION: 37 MILLION

.....................perspective

Handful of Dust's picture

When I go to Walmart and see da big momma with her 5-6 shitlings, doesn't look like an "infertility" problem to me.

The bigger problem is there's no father around for these shitlings and all of us have to support them.

HillaryOdor's picture

The dysgenics plan is working out nicely.  Subsidize all the trash to shit out a new hellion every year for more free stuff.  Make sure there's no father around either.  That'll screw the kids up and keep society at each others' throats.  The smart people are too demoralized to want to contribute anything at all to this shit society, much less children.   At this rate we'll be at Eloi and Morlocks before you know it.

If we actually make it out of this nightmare somehow I hope future generations take note and tell the idiotic altruists to shove it up their ass.  Having women in politics also made everything much much worse.  They want to use government to "protect" everyone like it's their children.  Society works when everyone is pursuing their own rational self interest.  Collectivism and centrally planned caring and sharing are abominations born in the minds of would-be tyrants.

SickDollar's picture

what did you expect when women act like men

How many men have heard this phrase: "I am independent , I don't need anyone to take care of me and I don't want kids "

 

HillaryOdor's picture

It's one good thing about immigration when it is done properly.  You can find nice women from countries that are still relatively unadulterated, not yet infected with cultural Marxism and all the other poisons of the new world order, cultures where women still act like women and appreciate a man.  They don't challenge traditional gender roles.  They relish them.  You add in the obesity, the entitlement, the stupidity of Americans, it's not even a competition.  I found the lovely Mrs. HillaryOdor in grad school fresh over from Lebanon.  There were some hot Iranian girls too.  I have watched the transition in a short time of an innocent little Vietnamese girl who got indoctrinated at college into the cult of the left, third wave feminism, all of it.  It took her less than a year to cast it away and realize it was all about man-hating and not about equality or bringing people together.  If I was limited to American girls I'd still be single, or hanging in my closet maybe.  Who knows?

z80kid's picture

Nope. Too many of them change after they are here for a few years and make friends with American women. And the feminists have secured changes to the laws so that a woman who divorces you after a few short years can keep her legal residency. So instead of planning a family for a lifetime, many are just whoring themselves to an American man for three years so they can get residency and alimony.

7thGenMO's picture

Yes, American men assume that if they have a foreign wife the courts will give priority to them as citizens if they have been scammed. Nope, divorce is handled in state courts, and, depending on the state, state law does not adequately provide for international situations. Foreign whores are treated the same as American women.

7thGenMO's picture

And (although we don't like to talk about it) that independent woman will insist that you observe her gynecological exam, and, in addition to you mentally recording arousal inhibiting images of her male gyno's hand up her vagina and squeezing her tits, will babble on for hours afterward about how much she respects and likes him, before returing to her usual routine of deriding you for your many failings.  Modern gynecological practice (in particular the filming of baby delivery) has seriously inhibited mating/romance.  Bring back the midwife.

 

Riga's picture

How many fathers taught their daughters they could/should

A: live at home until they got married

B: go work and be independent

How many parents seemed genuinely happy to have kids?

fockewulf190's picture

If over half of the population in the US can´t write a $500 check, then your going to have a demographic problem.  I´m sure there would be a lot more kids around if people could afford to have them.  The last thing I would want to do is raise kids in poverty.  There are way too many people out there who are one missing paycheck away from being homeless....and being homeless with kids is hell on Earth.

animalogic's picture

"Society works when everyone is pursuing their own rational self interest."

I'm sorry, but did you swallow "Atlas Shrugged" ?

Rational self interest -- yes people ARE just so rational: i mean look at that Testament to rationality, the Dow...blotted bubble anyone ?

As for collectivism & central planning ? What Nth Korea ? Wow, they ARE world leaders.

Incidentally, self interest, competition have an important function...in the context of cooperation & other directed behaviour. Remove the later two & you'll end up with a variation on the theme "zombie land" or "nasty, short & brutish"

Mr. Universe's picture

For the corporate world of never ending growth, the driving factor is numbers. The push into the turd world and flooding it with IMF and World Bank loans is SOP. Musies are the perfect consumer. They are always destroying stuff so they always will need Moar, plus they breed like rabbits. For a corporate goon what's not to love?

One the other hand, I have been able to watch over the public health system in our county for several decades now, specificaly the perinatal units. They have been running at near capacity and have had to increase beds,unit sizes, and number of employees. It is a fact that "immigrants" dropping new "citizens" takes up more resources than will ever be returned, unless you count returned to Mexico that is.

SonsOfLibertyReborn's picture

We're competing against Hispanics, blacks, and Muslims on Island Earth. Until they close down borders, we need to breed or we are facing a very dark future.

Bwana's picture

I'm too old to breed and live to raise my children so I practice my shooting evey week.

whoisjohngalt11's picture

Men Going Their Own Way..MGTOW.. nuff said.

Bwana's picture

I fathered and raised 3 sons. The majority of my peers refused to bring children into this shit pot the liberals have made. Why have children if they are cursed for being males or white. Why have children if a college education is denied them if they are male or white. Our stinking government talks out of both sides of its mouth or as the native Americans say double tongues. I am male and white and was denied a college education because of the civil rights act that took the civil rights away from the white A students and gave a priority to complimentary D- blacks.

Riga's picture

"Why have children if they are cursed for being males or white. Why have children if a college education is denied them if they are male or white."

Oh how detestably pathetic and beta.

SonsOfLibertyReborn's picture

And their cowardice and lack of faith only makes it worse. Europe and USA are being swarmed by lots of young people who aren't afraid of breeding (or raping). We fight back by breeding an army!!!!!

Kobe Beef's picture

We've got nukes, chems, and germs. We fight back by exterminating the untermensch.

Then we're free to breed with all that lebensraum.

Save_America1st's picture

wow, that's quite a touching eulogy.  hahaha

she turned me down too, strange enough.  ;-)

junction's picture

One explanation for the shrinking birth rate:

"When Australia passed a parental leave law in 2010, it left the U.S. as the only industrialized nation not to mandate paid leave for mothers of newborns. Most of the rest of the world has paid maternity leave policies, too; Lesotho, Swaziland and Papua New Guinea are the only other countries that do not. Many countries give new fathers paid time off as well or allow parents to share paid leave." 

shovelhead's picture

Who pays?

Why would employers hire women at all if they're going to be liable to pay months of wages for nothing?

I can see companies becoming Granny Gulches.

Handful of Dust's picture

Take one look at Rosie O'Donnell, Lena Dunham, and Ellen Degenerate and it's easy to understand why the birth rate is dropping.

Mr. Universe's picture

We all pay that's who. I remember a time when the majority of woman didn't need time off after having a baby because that was one of her jobs as a homemaker. Her husband, for the most part, didn't take too kindly having his wife work outside the home.

yogibear's picture

What do you expect when you feminize males?  Confuse them on what gender they are.

With all the H1Bs taking their jobs how can they support children?

Riga's picture

How to support children? Move somewhere decent and rural where a few acres costs $6000. Build starter house yourself. No mortgage, no rent. Raise chickens, a couple pigs, cow. Family eats pastured eggs, meat, and organic produce and is healthy. Bills low. Homeschool.

canisdirus's picture

Good luck finding a woman that is down for that. Even my wife, a country girl with a very strong self-reliance streak, isn't willing to live somewhere that's isolated to raise children (let alone homeschool - she's deeply worried about socializing them since she went to private Christian schools and said that she was with the same kids from preschool through adulthood and she felt it stunted her social skills).

Honestly, I'd rather live on an island far from society and be isolated like that. But then again, my cousins were pretty messed up from a childhood of isolation and homeschooling. Mind you, my uncle did 170-mile daily commutes for their entire lives to afford it, so they were more isolated than they could have been. Working online might be in my future.

J. Peasemold Gruntfuttock's picture

You raise a good point ATW, and while it is a strong disincentive in many parts of the world there are other valid reasons.

But the weighting of those factors varies from the micro to the macro across the globe.

If anything the birth rate has stabilized which is good for resource management but the quality of the replacement stock is becomming inconsistent.

Even listing out the major underlying causes is going to lead to a very lengthy response and discussion.

But I have observed in my lifetime that while basic needs are better met than in the past there is so much more intrusive oversight and many distractions that lead to a delay or abandonment of reproduction.

A hedonistic lifestyle is encouraged and accelerated by technology, self pleasuring and alternative lifestyle choices once on the fringe are now mainstream.

The heavy hand of the law strips the male of most rights and a decent livelihood when relationships fail.

Medically assisted  banking of gametes for delayed, difficult or donated reproduction.

And the elephant in the room. People who you would expect would want to pass on their fine qualities embodied in their genes are not doing so in sufficient quantity, a great loss for humanity. The waters of the pool are becomming muddy.

This is prevalent in all races, and across the world,

But I believe over a longer timeframe that nature will redress the balance, as it has in the past, and in ways that will not cease to amaze and perhaps terrify us.

I don't often use the 'hijacked' term but in this it is most appropriate: Nature is Awesome.

 

J. Peasemold Gruntfuttock

SonsOfLibertyReborn's picture

End feminism before feminism ends Western Civilization.

Dailystormer.com

Identityevropa.com

gmak's picture

It's simple. Let the birth rate fall. When times are good again, it will pick up. In the meantime, stop paying dumb people to have kids, stop letting in anybody with a pulse as immigrants, stop spending more money at .gov levels than is available as tax revenue. 

 

Eventually, things will reach an equilibrium and the birth rate will rise again. Things are cyclical, not linear.

CJgipper's picture

Also have to change the laws.  Women initiate over 80% of divorces now.  Why?  They get alimony, child support, and over 90% of the time, primary custody.  The only one losing anything (everything) is the man.  No marriage and kids until that happens.

 

Oh, and quit teaching your daughters to be "independent".  Teach them to be a competent adult, but this "you don't need no man" bs is preventing them from moving from cum dumpster to wife material.

Save_America1st's picture

the thing is, the number 1 reason the scumbag politicians and the banksters care about this kind of bullshit demographic (and so they think we should care too...) is that they need more and more spenders to keep the fiat Ponzi going as long as possible, and they need more and more people to spread the amount of massive taxes and deflation as much as possible to keep the frog pot just slowly boiling.

Less people, less spenders and hikes in taxes for the scumbag politicians wakes the boiling frogs up who then start kicking scumbag politicians assess up one side and down the other.

Kinda looks like that's what's happening right now as the Globalist, Marxist, elitist, kleptocrats are in serious fucking trouble and it's getting worse for them nearly every day so far.

centerline's picture

yup.  (leaning towards simple responses tonight).

DaveA's picture

And the politicians (except in Japan) are making the problem worse by importing millions of illiterate, unemployable immigrants to collapse the welfare state even faster.

The good news is, no welfare state means no feminism. Females of all ages will become chattel for any man willing and able to feed them, and politics will pass from democracy to darwinocracy.

In the formerly feminist Russia, police do not answer domestic-violence calls, and family court judges will, for an envelope full of cash, send your wife away with the clothes on her back.

fuherisback's picture

elites going down likely means us going down as they use their capital for escape/survival plans

Angry White Guy's picture

One doesn't move from cum dumpster to wife material.  Mutually exclusive.  Once a dumpster always a dumpster. 

Ms No's picture

Exactly.  The oil boom was a great example.  There was some serious begetting going on there.

Caught_Fish's picture

Declining birthrate may just induce the most dreaded of all consequences,

Deflation.

Now, just who hates deflation?