June Rate Hike Odds Jump Above 50%

Tyler Durden's picture

Be careful what you wish for...

Today's payrolls print has inspired more bets on a more hawkish Fed.

With The Fed the most "behind the curve" in 40 years, it is perhaps no surprise that Janet and her colleagues are desperate to get rates up as quickly as possible to preserve some ammo before this farce falters.


The problem for Janet is, the last time they played catch up like this, did not end well...


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spastic_colon's picture

the taylor rule is out of date with QE; focusing on the nominal fed funds rate doesn't apply anymore; the delta from 0 to 2 is generally the same as 5 to 20

Seasmoke's picture

105 down to 90. Doesn't seem like much compared to 2300 to 666. 

BigWillyStyle87's picture
BigWillyStyle87 (not verified) Mar 10, 2017 9:23 AM

It annoys the shit out of me when any "analyst" compares the era before QE to the era after QE without acknowledging the TRILLIONS in dollars, euros, yen, yuan, etc being printed out of thin air and flooded into the "markets".  Nobody gives a fuck about the Taylor rule anymore, that was when the monetary gods used to at least pretend this system wasnt a ponzi scheme

tmosley's picture

Market interest rates right now would likely be near 20%. Until the Fed is either abolished or gets with the program and really starts hiking, the damage to the economy will continue. Fiscal policy is important, but is being overwhelmed entirely by monetary policy.

And yes, the US must again default. There is nothing to be done. No-one should ever again lend money to a government. Make the bastards live within their means.

voxale's picture

" preserve some ammo before this farce falters."? I'm preserving ammo too. Speer gold dot. 

MFL5591's picture

This is a fucking game.

sheikurbootie's picture

Be right and sit tight.


Thinkpad's picture

M2 explosion since May 2015 with M2v stabilizing suggests they are behind the curve and know it and will be raising rates entire year. Your right sit tight

Thinkpad's picture
FOMC to Monitor Money Velocity and Inflationary Expectations Trends After “Live” March Meeting
Thinkpad's picture


Historically high M2 accompanied by a potential surge in Velocity of M2 represents legitimate inflation risks to a US economy that may not have the tools to defend against it.

The 21% hockey stick growth rate of M2's retail money funds over 10 months may also be a concern for destabilizing future economic growth.

M2 to Jaanuary 2017