March Missile Madness: Odds Of A North Korean WMD Attack In Next Month Tops 60%

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Marie DuMond via Beyond Parallel,

A Predata-Beyond Parallel prediction indicates there is a 43% chance of North Korean WMD activity taking place in the next 14 days. In the next 30 days, there is a 62% chance for North Korean WMD activity. Beyond Parallel defines WMD activity as nuclear tests and ballistic missile launches.

As seen below, Predata’s North Korea WMD overview signal captured a notable spike in conversations beginning on March 4, just two days prior to North Korea’s March 6 missile launches, and the signal has remained elevated since. Further, the signal’s 30-day exponential moving average started trending up on March 4, reaching its highest point in the previous 90 days on March 6. These signals indicate there are more March missile tests to come from North Korea.

(click image for interactive version)

The underlying signal for this prediction started spiking on February 28, also capturing a notable spike in conversations prior to the March 6 launches, and remaining elevated since. Indeed, the 30-day exponential average for the North Korea WMD missile test signal has been edging up since February 18.

These signal predictions are in line with, and corroborated by, other Beyond Parallel empirical studies of North Korean behavior and events on the Korean peninsula. March 1 kicked off the annual spring joint U.S.-Republic of Korea (ROK) military exercises to which North Korea often issues strong statements and sometimes conducts provocations. Beyond Parallel studies have found that the U.S.-ROK exercises themselves do not provoke North Korea. Rather, it is the state of U.S.-North Korea relations in the 4-8 week window prior to the joint exercise period that serves as the best indicator of North Korean behavior during these annual exercises. When U.S.-North Korea relations during this window are coded as negative then the exercise period will see a high level of provocations. And this year’s bilateral relations between the United States and North Korea have certainly been negative.

North Korea’s missile program has been rapidly developing with a fast pace of missile testing on a wide variety of missile types in recent years. To explore North Korea’s ballistic missiles in further detail, visit the CSIS Missile Defense Project.

These predictions are made possible through a Predata-CSIS Beyond Parallel collaboration seeking to bring open source intelligence tools and big data analytics to issues related to the Korean peninsula. The signals are drawn from open sources across the internet which provide a rich source of information for insights and context to current events and ongoing trends. Predata’s analytics are paired with Beyond Parallel databases of historical events to analyze current trends and make predictions about future events.

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Dragon HAwk's picture

Attack and Test are two very Different things.

New_Meat's picture

these the same asshole oddsmakers who predicted Hillary's victory?  Who said that the Falcons were going to win the Super Bowl?

They "expected" a different outcome

FrozenGoodz's picture

College basketball nuclear missile pun - Check

knukles's picture

Oh great.  Just great.  Automated polls.
Sounds to me like somebody behind the scenes is pushing a war, here.

cheka's picture

what a load of crap.  just like the multi-decade hypefest of IMPENDING iran war

espirit's picture

I read the article, but I can't help myself...

"...according to a Senior State Department Official..."

cherry picker's picture

Could be the head of the janitorial department at State, that would then be accurate. 

Stuck on Zero's picture

Was the "No DONG" missile named after their fearless leader?

flicker life's picture

I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... http://bit.ly/2jdTzrM

keep the bastards honest's picture

Its rubbish. The only way would be if the terrifed North Koreans  sent up a rocket and the CIA directed it to the USA. AS per  wikileaks.. CIA imploded and misdirected North KOrean rockets.

Iraq Libya Syria Iran and North Korea were on the list after the Twin Towers antics.  North Korea desperately poor and terrifed. Its tormenters deserve to eat shit and die.

cherry picker's picture

Marie DuMond via Beyond Parallel, probably works for the' let's scare the shit out ofur citizens department' in the CIA.

It's all bullshit.

 

 

aloha_snakbar's picture

When I knew her she was perfectly parallel...

Trogdor's picture

I dunno ... that big one looks like it's ready to stick it to someone ... seems to be some TYPE-O-DONG - (ba-dum-tishhh....)

mofreedom's picture

I'll take the under.

Pay Me!!!

Takeaction2's picture

The big one on the end...YEs it has "DONG" in the name.....these Asians.....figures.

aloha_snakbar's picture

Who gives a *FUCK* what that fat, greasy,  human pork rind Kim does...

mofreedom's picture

I taste great, more filling.

trulz4lulz's picture

Its beginning to seem, more and more to me, that North Korea is a US asset of some kind. Either totally controlled deep state experiment dating back 60 years...or....the reason I say this is because it makes more sense to me that China just absorbeds them and takes control of that powder keg. North Korea doesnt add up, logically.

espirit's picture

Meh.

The Pit-Bull on a leash is looking moar like a Pug.

QuantumEasing's picture

North Korea is a rodeo clown. When the populace needs distracting, "Oh noers, them Krazy Ko-reans gonna nuke evr'body! Grab Granny 'n the chitlin's 'n head fer the storm cellar!"

Pay attention to what's going on back home. Classic misdirection.

trulz4lulz's picture

Exactly my point. Everytime America is in need of a distraction, North Korea does something totally illogical. The Pacific nations were beginning to waiver on THADD, what happens? The Norks shoot missiles that land off the coast of Japan. Every. Single. Time. America needs a distraction, North Korea. Without fail, like a Tissot watch.

LetThemEatRand's picture

I have the cockroach winning it all in my March Missile Madness pool.  Humans don't even make it to the sweet sixteen.

knukles's picture

LOL  And I hate basketball.
I have always hated basketball, so that's double double funny

Here's something special.  The Reptiles at the Vatican.  hsssssssssssss

http://beforeitsnews.com/religion/2017/03/10-dark-things-about-the-popes...

Every day in every way it gets just a little more scary, at which rate according to the Prophecy of El Capitan Zeno's Law, you never ever quite get to Peak Madness
You just die before
Enjoy the Ride

LetThemEatRand's picture

That is some creepy shit.  One thing is for sure -- the people behind the curtain are insanely fucked up.

brushhog's picture

The title says "attack" but the article is about missile tests. FAIL.

espirit's picture

Their Subs don't make it very far either. Heh.

IranContra's picture

Rothschilds last surviving trolls farting. Blowing in the wind...

Temple of Truth's picture

There is a 99% chance that these predictions are bullshit.

QuantumEasing's picture

Yep.

Prepared for a big nothing burger to come out of this.

PoasterToaster's picture

More Derp State bullchit.

aloha_snakbar's picture

He is such an *angry* little dick-tater...

TeethVillage88s's picture

Well and Neocons profits are low unless they can start new wars... they haven't been very good at False Flags since 1999. They are doing everything they can to drive Russia, China, Iran, Syria, North Korea into a war with the USA.

Did some of this info come from:

- Neocons
- PNAC
- CNAS, Center for New American Security, Kagen Heading up

LetThemEatRand's picture

When someone killed Un's half-brother with a high-tech chemical agent, the first thing I thought of is "false flag."  Since then, I've seen several articles suggesting that it is proof NK has WMDs and isn't afraid to use them.  Hell, Drudge had multiple articles on the subject of how dangerous NK is, just this week.

The problem isn't Un.  He is a tin pot dictator in a shithole country and I have no concern whatsoever that he is going to start WWIII.  The problem is the building neocon narrative that will be used as an excuse to start something.

BigFatUglyBubble's picture

I found this documentary interesting, in case anyone is interested: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZTymUzcpIg

I think it's in better quality on netflix.

Basically lets NK tell their side of the story.

RagaMuffin's picture

FROM THEIR WEBSITE Beyond Parallel is made possible by Korea Chair funding in addition to generous support from the Brzezinski Institute on Geostrategy

LetThemEatRand's picture

And there you have it.  The CFR approves of this message. 

knukles's picture

Talk about insanely fucked up.

Hillarys Server's picture

Holy smoke. That's beyond comedy. They should change their name to Beyond Parallel and Below the Disney Channel.

cbxer55's picture

Another avatar that we need to see in full size.

MaxThrust's picture

Is this author contracted to the NYT?

This article is bullshit.

Giant Meteor's picture

Well I don't know. Have not verified, but it sure as hell talks like deep state, walks like deep state, LOOKS like deep state. Fuck, it must be a duck (and cover.)

Giant Meteor's picture

Meh, there is likely an 80% chance it boomerang's back to the launch pad it came from.

Its called the suicide option ..

Either way, short North Korea, the poor dumb bastards ..

Malus's picture

You would have to be a complete idiot to believe that either N.Korea or Iran is a threat. I mean seriously, at least get the fake cold war with Russia going pronto to at least make the bullsh*t stories plausible....

Giant Meteor's picture

I'm catchin your drift. The thing is, the Russian narrative has fallen, and can't get up.

Deep state is flacid (limped dicks) and trying to ram it home, for the win.

Never works out ..

QuantumEasing's picture

Pushing a false narrative.

Pushing a rope.

I see the similarity.

dasein211's picture

Here's the deal. North Korea has basically no trade items except coal and weapons. Allowing them to develop a full nuclear arsenal allows them to blackmail to get something for nothing. It's like being locked in a room with a guy holding a grenade. He gets to eat everynis portions and everyone has to wipe his ass or we all go down. Now he has a level of self interest. He wants to keep his regime and power. That's hard to do when you have no legal trading partner. We've ignored him because there's nothing there worth much of anything. But the problem is he is now a nuclear power. And he gets a say. And when we take away his portions he wants to blow the grenade. The longer we wait the bigger his grenade gets. And soon it'll reach everyone in the room. If the satellites they have in the sky have nukes on them we are fucked. We should never have allowed that but we did. Now he holds a possible "EMP" threat over our whole country. The longer we wait the more the rules of blackmail turn in his favor. He has not much to lose and almost everything to gain. What do we do? We all talk a big game but and emp would blow us back a hundred years and leave us vulnerable to invasion.

QuantumEasing's picture

Trouble with that argument is, last time I checked (this morning, as is my custom), the laws of physics are the same as they were yesterday.

Unmoderated fast fission is still impossible.