How Shale Is Reshaping The World: Three New Wars

Tyler Durden's picture

Via The Gavekal USA Team,

We recently met with geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan to discuss world events since the American election and his new book, “The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World without America.” In the book, Peter credits energy and resource innovations with reshaping the global geopolitical environment.


We covered so much ground in our visit with Peter that we decided to break it into two reports. Last month in part 1, we covered the broad impact of the Shale Revolution, which he calls, “the greatest evolution of the American industrial space since 1970,” and which he expects to accelerate the breakdown of the global order as we know it. Today, in part 2, we examine the major global shifts in geopolitics that will result as the US moves into energy independence. Peter believes this will reshape global geopolitics, leading to three major conflicts - Russia vs. Europe, Iran vs. Saudi Arabia & an Asian Tanker War. It is these conflicts we asked him to discuss in greater detail. We hope you enjoy the discussion.

GAVEKAL CAPITAL: We last left off discussing how the oil export ban could be rescinded if global geopolitical issues flare up. What are you on the lookout for?

PETER ZEIHAN:There are three big conflicts I see that could cause a major schism between what the US pays for oil and what the rest of the world pays for it. I’m talking about a potential global oil price of around $150 per barrel while the US pays only $50 per barrel thanks to shale oil in the US and a resumption of the ban on oil exports. The break-even cost in the United States is around $40. If you put the embargo back in place, you’ve got a functional ceiling on how high the price can be domestically. If shale overproduces and you can’t export the crude, then it’s a question of refining capacity which can’t be built out that quickly.

War number one is Russia vs Europe. The Russian demographic situation is already untenable and it’s moving into catastrophic. By the time we get to about 2020-2022, the size of the Russian army will be less than half of what it was last year. The post-Soviet Union baby bust was that sharp, so if they are going to use their military in an attempt to re-shape their world, they have to do it now. And in many ways they already are. Depending on which scenario plays out -I list several in my book -anywhere from two to seven million barrels per day of crude in the market goes offline. Former Soviet Union oil shipments are in danger in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Eastern Poland, Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, Northeast Romania, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia. That list is the entirety of Russia’s western energy exports. The Russians will either use oil as a political tool, or the targeted folks will say, “You’re not going to sell crude through us while you’re conquering us.” Either way it’s going offline. And because Russian energy production is in the permafrost it can’t be shut in safely. If you turn off the wells, they freeze solid and you have to re-drill them, so from the point that the Russians stop production in a field, it’s 10 years minimum to bring it back online.

One of the biggest mistakes I think people make when analyzing Russia is they don’t realize that the Russians are not thinking about money right now. The general consensus is that the Russians won’t do anything to disrupt the flow of oil because they need the oil income. That’s not how the Russians are thinking at all. Their current borders are completely unsustainable, and they only have a short window to do something about it. The Russians see the end of their country on the horizon, and they’d rather have that be 60 years from now than five years from now. There’s no route for withdrawal: they’ve got to get through to the Carpathians, the Caucasus and they’ve got to get to the Polish gap and the Baltic Sea.I believe Russia’s move to extend its border is going to fail, but if I were Putin right now, I wouldn’t have a better plan. And that will take, based on which scenario goes down, between two million and nine million barrels of crude offline, and five BCF and 12 BCF of natural gas.

GC:What do you think of the relationship between Trump and Putin?

PZ:For two men with egos as large and as fragile as Trump and Putin, I can’t imagine they’re going to get along for long. However, for 2017 both of them have a lot reasons to focus on other issues, so burying the hatchet for the moment makes a lot of sense. Also, the United States has no long-term rationale to get involved in a ground war with a nuclear-armed power who’s a shell of its former self, with nothing to lose and who is invading countries that aren’t even defending themselves. I expect the rhetoric to pick back up, but for 2017, I think it’s going to be pretty calm in bilateral relations. This will free up Russia to act more aggressively regionally. That means Ukraine is even more in play. That means breaking up the European Union. That means consolidating the former Soviet space. All of that is going to go into high gear this year and next.

GC:What’s Russia’s interest in breaking up Europe?

PZ:If the Europeans are squabbling –and it’s not a difficult task to get the Europeans to squabble –they can’t form a common front against the Russians unless they’re American-led. So if the Americans step back for their own reasons, and you can keep the Europeans at each other’s rhetorical throats, Russia can take advantage.

GC:What would be the bell that would ring that would announce to the world that Russia is on the move?

PZ:We have the French nationalists saying that the Russians are intervening in French national elections just like they did in the US. So the bells are ringing left, right and center. It’s happening. We’ve already had civil discontent in Latvia and Estonia caused by Russian efforts.

GC:Who goes to bat for these countries?

PZ:Well, if it’s not the United States, if you’re the Baltic countries, it’s Sweden. And I think they will. But Sweden can’t roll back the Russians by themselves. They can make it hurt like hell. For Poland, it’s Germany. The Poles just get the bad end of every stick throughout history, and they’re about to get another one. For Romania and the Caucasus, it might be Turkey. Although the Russians are doing everything they can to make sure that the Turks don’t want to get involved, and so far it’s working. Poland, plus Germany, plus the Scandinavians, plus the Brits are sufficient to roll the Russians back.

GC:Are you starting to see movement of personnel and material in anticipation of this?

PZ:All three of the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) have given up on conventional warfare. They have largely, for all practical purposes, disbanded their conventional militaries and they’re training their entire population in guerilla tactics. They know what’s coming. And the number one country to assist them with that is Sweden. The Finns are basically breaking out all their grandfathers’ equipment and getting ready for another Winter War.

GC:Geographically, is it easy to roll into the Baltic states and Poland?

PZ:Estonia and Latvia are nearly as easy to roll into as Poland. Lithuania is a little bit more difficult. There’s a lot of forest; it’s a bit more rugged. But rolling back the Russians on land has to be German-led, and the Germans don’t have an army right now. They’re the only ones who have the demography to potentially fill a force that could do it.

GC:What could Europe do that would be sufficient for Trump to want to get involved?

PZ:If they doubled defense spending in the next 12 months, that could at least get the conversation started. But if the free trade era is over, if Bretton Woods is over, why would you get involved if you are the US? It’s not a ridiculous position, even if Trump makes it sound that way sometimes.

GC:Does the US continue selling weapons to everyone?

PZ:Oh, of course, the US isn’t that crazy! The US will still pick sides, will still provide intelligence and might even rent out a bunch of drones. I don’t mean to suggest there’s no American role, but the idea of the US Army coming to the rescue, that’s off the table. As we discovered in Crimea, NATO’s rapid reaction divisions are only 500 troops each. In the aftermath of Crimea, only four divisions of 500 troops were sent. The US provided one, Canada provided one, Poland finally provided one, and the other one was all the other NATO counties put together.

GC:How many Russian troops are in Crimea, Ukraine, right now?

PZ:It is tough to know exactly but I’d say at least 15,000 Russian troops are in Crimea. On paper, the Russian military is still basically a million-man army. They are not, man for man, nearly as good as American troops, but they’re better than Spanish troops or Italian troops or Polish troops. In order for Russia to pull this off they probably need at least 100,000 troops. You’re talking about two million square miles and 70 million people. You’re not going to do that with 10,000 people.

GC:This is going to take a massive mobilization effort on Russia’s part, right?


PZ: Well, the mobilization won’t take as long as you’d think because there’s already at least 25,000 Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, not counting the ones that aren’t officially in Ukraine proper.

That process has already started. The Ukrainian military has basically been decapitated. You haven’t heard a lot about Ukraine recently because the Russians sent in a few special forces troops to bait the Ukrainians to send out their own best troops –their American-led, American-equipped troops –to the front. Then Russia used regular army and air force to kill all the commanders of all the best units. So all that Ukraine has left now are reservists. When the war comes, unless the Ukrainians resist to the last man, the regular, organized resistance is already over. It’s just a matter of how fast do the Russians want to push into Kiev.

Now, once they get to Kiev and the bridges over the Dnieper River, you enter a slightly different sort of war because you move into Western Ukraine which is not a Russified Ukraine. You’re more likely to have civilian resistance in Western Ukraine. But that first half, if that takes a month, I’d be really surprised. Belarus will welcome Russia in, and Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania combined are only six million people. Moldova can’t manage political opposition to Russia, and the Russians already have an active military base with 10,000 troops. So that just leaves Romania. If Romania and Poland are the great hope for the West in this war, then it is not looking good.

GC:Do you think that war starts this year?

PZ:I don’t know when it will officially begin, but with the way the political relationship is going, and with what I think is about to happen in Europe, it’s a golden opportunity. The Russians can’t maintain this tempo with the demographic situation for very long so the sooner they start it, the better. If you start it before the Europeans start to function like nation-states again, and if the Americans have already exited stage left, it’s a perfect opportunity. Once the ball gets rolling, this will take several years to play out. I think maybe the end play for Russia is to get the Germans to say, “Okay, you can have Ukraine, but you can’t have Poland. Okay, you can have Belarus, but you can’t have Poland. Okay, you can have Estonia, but you can’t have Poland. What? You took Poland? You can’t have Romania.” That’s basically what the Russians are hoping for. It’s not a stupid plan. That would be their preferred path. And it’s worked before. “Okay, you can have Eastern Poland but we draw the line at Western Poland.” That’s World War II.

GC: What is war number two?

PZ:So Russia vs. Europe starts on its own, not over energy security but energy is a clear casualty. Conflict number two is Iran vs. Saudi Arabia in the Persian Gulf. If the Americans remove themselves from keeping those two powers apart because America no longer cares about keeping oil flows out of the Persian Gulf safe then those two countries fall into direct competition. Eventually, that competition turns into an attempted Iranian invasion of Saudi Arabia.

GC: How does that play out?

PZ: There’s a 300-mile desert gap between Kuwait and the oil fields of Saudi Arabia, and it’s not clear that the Iranians can make it across. What the Saudis are doing right now in Yemen is target practice for that, they’re preparing, learning to use their military equipment, particularly their air force, to turn that northern desert buffer into a kill zone. Right now, they are doing it pretty well. Will it be enough? I don’t know. The Saudis would rather not face a war at all, but they know that in a post-Bretton Woods world, without American protection, over time the Iranians will bury them. So just as the Russians feel that they’re on a limited time scale to create more sustainable borders, the Saudis feel they’re on a limited time scale to crush Iran. The 2015-2016 oil price war then wasn’t really about shale, it was about Persia. And to be perfectly blunt, it hasn’t worked as well as the Saudis hoped.

GC: So will the Saudis try to develop nuclear weapons?

PZ: No, if it comes to that, Saudi Arabia will just buy them. They can get them from Pakistan and that conversation has already happened. Pakistan has 150 nuclear weapons, and if they can sell them for $1 billion a pop, they are happy to do it. The Saudis are already providing them with subsidized oil in order to make sure that those lines of communication never close. Assuming no one else gets caught in the crossfire, that’s potentially another 11 million barrels per day of crude off the market when these two countries go at it. And if other countries get caught in the crossfire, it goes up to 20 million barrels per day. So the Persian Gulf is War #2.

GC: Is it connected or disconnected from the Russian war?

PZ: Disconnected. It could start any time, it could start tomorrow. When the Iranians realize what the Saudis are up to and that it can kill them, that’s when this war begins. The Syrian war has taken a turn that is relatively pro-Iranian recently, so Iran isn’t feeling stressed. A year ago, it was going a very different direction. ISIS is probably the calmest, kindest sort of group that the Saudis will form over the next few years because it is proving that it wasn’t enough. Now, I don’t mean to suggest that the Saudis are pulling the strings of ISIS; they just formed it and then let it go off on its own. And as long as ISIS is killing Persians and Persian allies, the Saudis are totally fine with it. And the Saudis will form more groups, they’ve probably already formed a hundred groups in the last six years alone. Most of them are fighting in Syria but not exclusively, some of those groups like Jundallah are already in Iran.

GC: What is the third war?

PZ: The third war is dependent on one of the first two: it doesn’t matter which one happens first, either one will trigger the third war. If you have an oil shortage anywhere in the world — because Russia is on the move toward Europe or because Iran is invading Saudi Arabia — energy security and availability for the rest of the world becomes a question of transport routes. The world’s longest, most vulnerable transport routes are from the Persian Gulf to Northeast Asia. Based on whichever country you are in, that’s anywhere from 5,000 to 7,500 miles. If you have a shortage anywhere, Northeast Asia has to eat the entirety of the shortage because they are furthest from the wells. And, worst of all is that there’s not enough to go around for the Koreans, the Taiwanese, the Chinese and the Japanese. Somebody has to go without, and the country that goes without is the country that cannot physically defend crude oil on a convoy route from the Persian Gulf all the way home. So the third conflict is an Asian tanker war, and that triggers all kinds of different results.

GC: Who will be the winners and losers of the tanker war?

PZ: The countries that have the longest reach, like Japan, will probably be able to protect their transport routes the whole way so they should be OK. Japan has by far the strongest navy in that region of the world. Countries that have a deep and abiding experience at bribing people, such as Korea and Taiwan, will probably pay India to fly cover for them for the first part of the trip through the Indian Ocean. This could work out for them, but it comes with a lot of risks. The Chinese have a serious problem with naval power projection and are going to have to establish bases closer to the oil source. That means China will probably have to invade chunks of Vietnam and the Philippines so that they can turn the South China Sea into an internal lake. If they successfully do that, then that’s a 1,000 miles less they have to worry about transporting and protecting their energy supply.

Ultimately though, I would expect the Chinese to lose the tanker war because of how much oil they need and their relative lack of naval strength. I think the tanker war will be the shortest of the three wars, but it’ll be the most colorful, because it basically breaks down the entire structure that has sustained Northeast Asia’s economic ascension for the last 60 years.

By the end of these wars, I would expect us to see around $50 oil in the US, $150 oil in Paris and over $200 oil in Beijing (assuming any crude can make it to Beijing at all). The whole supply chain model that has made East Asia successful for the last 50 years will be gone. All that manufacturing capacity has to relocate, or because of the global demographic breakdown and the energy crisis, all that capacity may just disappear because of lack of demand.

Peter Zeihanis the best-selling author of “The Accidental Superpower.”

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francis scott falseflag's picture





Belrev's picture

"Vladimir Putin the most powerful man in the world". New CNN documentary. A comedy really.

flicker life's picture
flicker life (not verified) Belrev Mar 14, 2017 2:23 AM

I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do...

07564111's picture

The author of this BS article makes more ;)

He helped develop the analytical models for Stratfof ;)

Not much more needs to be said..HaHaHaHaHa

StackShinyStuff's picture

I want some of what this guy is smoking

fleur de lis's picture

Stupidest geopolitical article I ever started reading and had to give up.

This moron is another expert devoid of Russian history.

He must be running for office or maybe already in some advisory position.

These are the overpaid, fast talking duds who get us into wars by goading other ill read duds in office on the strength of fake history.

John McCain is one such widely known dud and yet he is allowed to clog up the political process at home and arm Syrian serial killers abroad with impunity.

The Russians, Iranians, Chinese, and all the rest of them must be astounded at the unmitigated stupidity that allowed to run wild in Washington.

They are observing, discussing, and planning accordingly.




Nassim's picture

I have never read so much nonsense. Just more of "the Russians are coming BS"

The demographics of Russia are fine. Check out the demographics of the native English / Spanish / Dutch / German / Italians and white Americans. 

The Russians have a fine huge country and they have no urge to occupy any country that speaks other languages. Ukraine is a fake country and will be at some time divided at the Dneiper. People who want to speak Ukrainian to the left and people who prefer Russian to the right. 

Relentless's picture

OMG. Could this author get any more out of the 1980's neo-con playbook?

Russia does indeed have a demographioc crisis on its hands, but is has low debt and an oil income, so it won't be facing the debt payback issues that the west will.

Then there's the fact that the Russians neither want to invade, nor are the capable of invading Eastern Europe. The vast majority of their current military is entirely structured around a defensive war against American led agression across the north european plain. They have limited expeditionary/force projection capability and their already using a lot of it in Syria.

This guy needs to stop beating the anti-Russia war drums and start paying a lot more attention to the state of the US military over the next decade or two as the coming financial crisis is going to devastate it. I expect the US to lose about 1/3 of its current strength due to affordability during that time, and its going to need to manage that sensiibly to avoid an un-managed crash instead.

cat2005's picture

Dumbass. Russia has horrible demographics by any measure, especially if you consider the population's geographical distribution. Most of the population is in or near Europe but most if the nation's resources are in more remotely populated areas. Russia has one of the worst demographic profiles of any developed or developing society.

The Soviet collapse will be viewed as the death knell of Russian civilisation and culture (the white Christian Russian).

Putin had an opportunity to rebuild the nation and its population via a revenue neutral tax shift onto economic rent and away from labor and capital. Instead he opted for Western style finance and development while collecting economic rents from a mere handful of industries (energy as the most obvious).

This Peter who wrote the preceding piece is clearly promoting his book and services but that doesn't negate the raw data upon which he basis his theory and forecast.

sinbad2's picture

Well in CNN world popularity and ratings are power, and Vladimir Putin is the most popular politician on the planet.

When the world has long forgotten Clinton Obama and Trump, Putin will still be remembered like Churchill Lincoln Napoleon and Julius Caesar are remembered.

Yukon Cornholius's picture

This guy is about three months too late with the Russians-are-coming schtick.

Chunky Lee Chong gets dealt with first, bozo.

FmAlexander's picture

I think everyone should take a chill pill 

Gen. Ripper's picture

Bullshit - China is gonna buy Venezuela

farmerbraun's picture

They didn't pay much for Africa.

philipat's picture

That's because whilst the US was busy propping up and financing corrupt "democratic" dicatators (who then sent all the funds to Switzerland), China got on with business and developed resourse extraction and needed infratsructure on a win/win basis and without any political demands.

sinbad2's picture

The Chinese are respected in Africa.

When the west does business in Africa, it appoints some local warlord, and pays him enough to make him very rich.

When China does business in Africa, they pay via building roads railways bridges etc. The average African benefits from the road, because he can get his crop to market and his kids to a doctor.

So all the dictators love America and Europe, but the African people like China.

sinbad2's picture

Why, what's in it for China?

philipat's picture

And upon what evidence or events is this thesis based?

farmerbraun's picture

Still, that must be some pretty good shit that he's on , I' m thinking.

philipat's picture

Yes indeed!!

Of course, everyone is entitled to an opinion but this article is pure speculation without any factual backing, Perhaps it's just me, and I am entited to my opinion also, it smells of propoganda? The authors appear to have omitted some rather important points, for instance to mention just a few:

  1. Russia and China now trade energy in RUB/CNY and China will very soon be buying energy from the Saudis also in CNY. Russia will export gas to Europe in RUB. All of this will accelerate the demise of the Petrodollar and the USD itself. All those no longer needed overseas USD will flow back home and cause inflation. These are strategic trends which were not even noted.
  2. I'm not sure if they looked at a map but the Siberian oil fields in Russia are very close to China which helps the flow of energy and cements the strategic alliance between Russia and China.
  3. If the US wants to continue the misallocation of capital to new investments in shale oil at low EROI and at prices not substantially higher than breakeven, that's fine. But in case they hadn't noticed, interests rates are rising and the days of free money from the Fed will soon be over. What happens to the economics of shale then?

Etc. etc. etc.......

shining one's picture

What a load of tosh. The only reason you think Russia wants war is because of the recent fake news/government propaganda. The only reason you think Iran wants a war is because of the fake news/government propaganda. Throw China in there too, same reason. Strange isn't it , that this articals bad guys are the same ones the Jewish elite bankers hate. Dumb ass.

ebworthen's picture

Shale = bale of hay.

back to basics's picture

ZH has gone totally tabloid publishing this unadulterated bullshit. 

giovanni_f's picture

the article is compressed bullshit reahearsing once-more those braindead mccain-oid wet dream cliches but ZH is not meant to be a solipsistic safe space to prevent pseudo-libertarian snowflakes from being exposed to the crap the enemies of mankind produce with the aim to make the 95% sheeple majority vote for them and their wars.

farmboy's picture

Wild and unsubstantiated speculation over geopolitical developments. This guy is only trying to sell his services to the US state department.

Total waste of time and a disgrace to Gavekal research.

philipat's picture

Fully agreed. And much of Gavekal's research is very good.

radbug's picture

Don't forget solar methanol out of the Pilbara desert. It's my conviction that all the obstacles are overcome, save one, a non-precious metal conductor for the PV panels' conduction channels. Confucians hate being out in front, but give them an order and they'll hop right to it. If told to, their scientists/engineers will solve the non-PM conductor issue inside a year. Another obstacle could be the anion exchange membrane in the Direct Methanol Alkaline Fuel Cell, assuming it hasn't been solved already. The Chinese could build up to 1000GW in the Pilbara. This would transform Australia.

sinbad2's picture

Methanol is made from natural gas. Australia has one of the largest natural gas reserves on the planet.

But Australia sold the rights to the gas to Chevron BP and Shell, and they are not interested in what is good for Australia. They pay Australia almost nothing for our resources, because Australian politicians are controlled by Washington and they gave it away, just like Iran did in 1908.

All the trouble with Iran, is because they demanded a fair share for their resources, so Australia will never get its gas back, whilst the US empire still stands.

Sunny2's picture

Russia will go beyond Ukraine, Belarus only if NATO stops functioning.


sinbad2's picture

Why would Russia go anywhere?

Russia had control of Eastern Europe during the Soviet era, and it was a millstone. The Russian economy, and the Russian people are more affluent without having to support Poland and the Baltic states. Today western Europe has to support these economically unviable states. If they had any real value, the US would have grabbed them at the end of the cold war.

Russia has become richer and more powerful by selling into Europe.

Wars are about money, and those without the money, trying to take from those who have.

The US wants war, because the US is bankrupt, and wants what belongs to Russia and Iran.

Treetop's picture

Excellent article. I think the Russia issue is very correct. The tanker war may take another turn as the critical supply lines for US gadgets is so asia dependent...hence US may allow export to certain countries and not others....not a blanket ban...Also Mexico may have a large role to play as it develops the Gulf fields more correctly....

Timing is the big problem for finance people....also the baltic countries adapted the Euro so they are now part and parcel of Europe's banking system...hence until the Euro breaks down, no invasion is possible of the baltics without destroying Western Europe's banks...untenable for Russia...Watch the Euro desintegration for the 1st step would be my guess...

Re Iran and Saudi Arabia--Iran is on the verge of economic collapse, as is the Saudi regime and both face tremedous internal pressures.., this may crack before a regime/regime confrontation...

Thanks again for the artice

DuneCreature's picture

ZeroPoint energy systems are there for the taking.

Now, you want me to piss you off? .. No? Well, I going to anyway.

Your government has been using it for years and NOT telling you about it.

Live Hard, With Luck, 8 Or 9 Will Spill The Beans, Die Free

~ DC v5.0

roddy6667's picture

Sale on tinfoil in aisle 5.

Vegetius's picture

What value is eastern Europe and Ukraine to Russia. A bunch poor, energy-dependent states that were in the USSR. When these states were in the Soviet Union they benefited from free gas and oil now they have to pay. So the Russian are far better off collecting money from these states and avoiding a pointless war. By the way it was the USA that destabilised the Ukraine and arranged a coup against the democratically elected Government. The whole article is weak on realities and fact and high on propaganda and wish projection.  The underlying premise is that the USA's rule of law breaking is justified because of these wild projections.

Iconoclast's picture

Other than the fact that USA shale is only worth five years of USA consumption, the article is spot on...


Iconoclast's picture

Venezuela has the largest oil reserves, the next war is a soft coup whereby the USA simply confiscates it. Less of a journey this time.

sinbad2's picture

Venezuela has lots of oil, but it's expensive to extract oil.

The ME is still the cheapest and Russia number 2. The US was buying Saudi oil in the 60's, simply because it was cheaper.

bankbob's picture

The only refineries that can handle the Venezuelan slop are on the Texas gulf coast.  And, they are rebuilding to handle super sweet fracked oil that has almost zero mercury or sulphur.

cwsuisse's picture

"Break-even shale oil in the US is 40 US-$": This claim is not substantiated. The financial reports of shale oil companies tell otherwise.

bankbob's picture

It has been 2 years since drillers fracked a dry hole.  They have automated and reduced crew size.  They are reusing water and fracking fluid which drops costs by eliminating truck deliveries. ALSO, the Permian shale has pay zones at different depths (usually more than two) that can be drilled from the same pad using the same infrastructure.

Currently - a fracking rig produces twice the amount of oil that it did just 3 years ago.

cwsuisse's picture

This article is probably the biggest bull-shit I have read on Zerohedge - ever! 

sinbad2's picture

My, the author has a vivid imagination, maps and everything, reminds me of Lord of the Rings.

Victor999's picture

I can not believe that ZH gave this idiot a platform to display his almost total ignorance.  By the time I made it midway through the article I had to take a puke break.  The article is so full of errors and misinformation it is difficult to make it through to the end - indeed, impossible for me.  Kudos to those of you who made it - you certainly have better gag reflexes than I! 

not dead yet's picture

According to reliable reports it's the Ukie nazzies going to war in the east. The regular Ukraine army is weak and staying out of the fray as they don't really like the nazzies but don't have the will or firepower to stop them. It's impossible to "lure" Ukraines best generals to the front to be killed by Russian or anybodies airpower as the only planes in the air are Ukrainian. Ukraine is a corrupt hugely indebted shithole and why would the Russians even want it. Ukraine, in the Donbass, does supply helicopter engines and other high quality military stuff to Russia but Putin saw the liability and after the coup began setting up manufacturing in Russia for these things. Russia is also the worlds largest wheat exporter so they don't need Ukie farmland. The USSR kept all of eastern Europe after WW2 as Stalin was paranoid and wanted a buffer zone. Russia cut them all loose because they were more trouble than they were worth and a drain on the economy and they don't want them back. At the moment Poland and the Baltic economies aren't so hot and by allowing the US to base troops there they can get a nice payout from Uncle and when the troops blow their paychecks in the local economy. They are only blowing smoke ranting about Russians invading them. Huge numbers of working stiffs and skilled labor have left the Baltics and Poland for better paying jobs elsewhere in Europe thus opening the door for desperate Ukrainians to get work even though the pay sucks and they get treated like crap. China and Russia have both figured out war is a loser and work their deals around the planet making friends as the US makes enemies. China and Russia are active in Syria but that's to put out the fire before it becomes a blaze in the Muslim areas of both Russia and China. As they have done so far Russia and China will sit back and watch the US and it's allies destroy their economies with the resulting unrest at home and destroying themselves from within. With the sore losers in the US marshalling all their efforts against Trump, and the country, the shit inside the US may hit the fan sooner than later.

Everyone but the politicians say Iran does not have the bomb and is not pursuing one. Iran is not interested in conquering other countries as they fight in Syria and Iraq to keep their friends in power and kill the terrorists. If Saudi Arabia buys a nuke and starts banging the war drums China or Russia will give some to Iran. Or the Russians and Chinese will guarantee to avenge Iran if they get nuked. Iran has plenty of oil of their own so why would they want to invade SA to get more. Thanks to Saudi short sidedness their country is chock full of Wahabbists and a population that will turn on the royals if the welfare checks stop. Plus the oil fields are located in the area that is majority Shia and they aren't happy with what Saudi did to their brothers in Bahrain. Some claim the Saudi military is mainly conscripts from other countries so their loyalty is questionable. I also like this guys complete bullshit that Saudi created ISIS but has never supported them. This guy needs to smoke better dope.

With Russia laying pipe to China importing oil by tanker will be a minor point. Or if Russia gets shut off from Europe they can also supply oil and gas to  Japan, Korea, and Taiwan while Europe freezes and their lights out. China may not have the biggest navy but they are armed to the teeth with ship killer missiles.

If there is a war odds are the US will start it to destroy Russia if that is even possible given the supposed superiority of Russian missiles and detection systems. Russia claims nothing will get through. Some claim that a first strike against Russia is being seriously discussed in DC so anythings possible. Even if Russia is destroyed and the US untouched the fallout and nuclear winter will have devastating effects. No more worries about climate change. All of the shelters for the military and the connected have always been located too far from the big cities for them to get there if an incoming strike is on the way. The unspoken reason for this is that the US has always planned to be the first to launch their nukes while the proper people are snug in their luxury bunkers and caves watching the destruction in 4K HD while sipping a cold one.

If this guy is correct, and he's not, oil in the US will indeed be $50. Per pint not barrel.

Let it Go's picture

Couldn't Russia just sell oil to China?

bankbob's picture

First - there is no pipeline.  

Second - oil would come in through China's provences most likely to stage a revolt. It would be consumed there and never reach the coast.

Remember, the Chinese South and the Chinese North don't like each other. A severe oil shortage and economic decline could trigger a Civil War.

fattail's picture

Wouldn't Russia just sell its oil to China in their Pipeline, like they already agreed to?

China in a tanker war?  What nonsense.  

Russia is scared of a bunch of neutered europeans invading?  Who knew?  I thought the russians just kept them from freezing to death every winter?  

So which is it?  Putin is a mad man bent on bringing back the whole soviet empire, or Putin is a filthy rich oligarch worth $50 billion ripping off his people?

All of this anti russian propaganda is making my head spin.

roadhazard's picture

"Russia is a shell of it's former self"... heh, that's going to piss off the ZH Pootin lovers.