Atlanta Fed Slashes Q1 GDP Forecast To Just 0.9% Hours Before Fed Rate Hike

Tyler Durden's picture

While it may not be the very definition of irony, we do find the fact that the Atlanta Fed has just cut its Q1 GDP forecast from 1.2% to 0.9%, a number which if confirmed would be the lowest quarterly print in year, just two hours before the Fed's rate hike quite humorous. As a reminder, the number was as high as 3.4% one and a half months ago.

From the Atlanta Fed:

Latest forecast: 0.9 percent — March 15, 2017


The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.9 percent on March 15, down from 1.2 percent on March 8. The GDP growth forecast declined 0.3 percentage points on Friday when the February estimate of the model's latent dynamic factor used to forecast yet-to-be released GDP source data declined after the employment situation release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth inched down from 1.6 percent to 1.5 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Consumer Price Index release from the BLS.


The chart below reveals that the worse the economy was doing, the higher the odds of a rate hike.

Putting the Atlanta Fed's forecast in context, 0.9% GDP would mark the weakest quarter since 1987 in which rates were raised, according to Julian Emanuel at UBS.

And since the Fed is hardly raising rates in light of the ongoing slowdown in the economy, one can only assume that the reason for the Fed's hike is to put the breaks on runaway inflation and/or various asset bubbles.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
shizzledizzle's picture

Like I was saying... We'll find a new yardstick.


Jim Sampson's picture

Gonna be like pissing into a windstorm.

GUS100CORRINA's picture

Let's see .. Increasing prices with no growth globally or in the USA.

One word: STAGFLATION! The FED has painted itself into a corner and has to raise rates because the alternative is unthinkable.

The CBs have LOST CONTROL (Bunch of lying despots with reprobate minds and we should END THE FED)

President TRUMP is going to be proved very right in everything he said about "OBAMA's" economy during the POTUS campaign.

As a side note, their are many who believe we are looking at double digit inflation if the TRUTH be known. I have done my own calculation to correct for the economist shenanigans since the 1980s. My current number for inflation is about 25% when I adjust for package size versus price and changes in sale discounts! Yes, you read the number correctly. Below is information on the CPI calculation from observations. The same logic would apply to PPI as well in many cases.

We have a BUNCH OF LYING DESPOTS as ECONOMISTS. Truly sad because this will not end well! We need A President like Andrew Jackson to deal with this 'Den of Vipers and Theives'. I certainly hope President TRUMP is that person. 


Consumer Price Index Has Been Reconfigured Since Early-1980s

So As to Understate Inflation versus Common Experience


CPI no longer measures the cost of maintaining a constant standard of living.

CPI no longer measures full inflation for out-of-pocket expenditures.

With the misused cover of academic theory, politicians forced significant underreporting of official inflation, so as to cut annual cost-of-living adjustments to Social Security, etc.

 Politicians look to expand further the concept of artificially-suppressed cost-of-living adjustments in current budget-deficit negotiations, through the use of the Chained-CPI.

Use of the CPI to adjust retirement benefits, private income or to set investment goals impairs the ability of retirees, income earners and investors to stay ahead of inflation.

Understated inflation used in estimating inflation-adjusted growth has created the illusion of recovery in reported GDP.


LawsofPhysics's picture


This is NOT the 70's, not by a long shot moron. What's the national debt again?  What are the unfunded liabilities?

You are an idiot. This not stagflation, this is the death of all fiat currency.


BandGap's picture

Speaking of which, or slightly off topic, WTF is up with the debt ceiling? Every other time we have gotten to this point in the last 15 years there was tremendous wailing and gnashing of teeth. Now, it's nothing?

And no, this isn't the 70s. We had something called music back then.

abyssinian's picture

Looks like a bullish GDP to me! No where to go but up from here! :)

GUS100CORRINA's picture

LOL ... 

Your use of ad hominems only proves my point. 

How old were you in the 70's? Can you tell me something about the 70's?

Those were the NIXON years. Can you tell me something about that time?

Be interested in your response.

One thing you are right on is your observation on unfunded liabilities and DEBT. So, we have the worst of both worlds ... STAGFLATION with a LOT OF DEBT OBLIGATIONS.


GUS100CORRINA's picture

shizzledizzle ...

When you said "We'll find a new yardstick.", your thought reminded me of relativism. It is like having your feet planted in midair. Your TRUTH is your TRUTH and my TRUTH is my TRUTH. We no longer have an abolute reference point.

In AMERICA, this is the problem. We no longer have ABSOLUTES (MORALLY or ECONOMICALLY). Any thing goes which is where we find most PROGRESSIVE LIBERAL and MILLENIAL thinking!!

By the way, the main theme for the Book of Judges found in the Bible is "EVERYONE DID WHAT WAS RIGHT IN THEIR OWN EYES!" 

{Jdg 21:25} In those days there was no king in Israel: every man did that which was right in his own eyes.

This is the reason why OBAMA leadership, the COURTS and DEMOCRATIC party policies have been a disaster for America!

We Are The Priests's picture

Tightening into weakness.


gatorengineer's picture

Well if there was any doubt that they wanted to crash it on Trumps watch, then today should remove it if they raise.  

Housing will get toe tagged, Brick and Mortar retail is flashing red, Oil is in trouble....

But on a good note, the MIC should be doing good.  Will it be syria, Iran or Korea, that goes first?

Jim Sampson's picture

Korea...  Kim is too unstable in the head.  Easy peaszy WWIIIzy

froze25's picture

Unless his own people take him out, dealing with a power that has nuclear tipped missiles is never easy peazy. If ww3 is going to start, I believe it will be with North Korea.

spastic_colon's picture

oil is a sell the rumor buy the news trade over last 3 weeks.

We Are The Priests's picture

My money is on Iran going next; possibly by coup d'etat.

Consuelo's picture



I'm sounding redundant Gator, but...


Until traffic here on 101 dies down considerably (by way of Pink Slip Friday's at the FANG's), it ain't real...

LawsofPhysics's picture


"Full faith and credit"

spicedune's picture
spicedune (not verified) Mar 15, 2017 11:04 AM

This stuff pisses me off then I remember that I dont live in the worst cities as seen at

Delving Eye's picture

Yeah, but then you're stuck in fuckin' Phoenix or Las Vegas, for chrissake. That's not living. That's a slow death.

youarelost's picture

Stop spamming with your crap. No one cares

wwxx's picture

To be classified as FAKE NEWS.



Kaiser Sousa's picture




with both hands...

FreeShitter's picture

With everything you got! MAGA mayne!

Yen Cross's picture

  lol... I'm sure the NYF [New Yurk Fed] will come back with a 3.9% counter offer. </sarc>

cowdiddly's picture

LMAO. Even her own cronies are losing it. Whaaaaats sammaaata ye skeeeed. Let her rip tater chip. After all its what you wanted Yellen.

LawsofPhysics's picture

So, no rate hike then?

global Weimar is on bitchez!

Soul Glow's picture

Atlanta wants to keep the economy running hot!  Hotlanta!

AC_Doctor's picture

.9%.  So what's the REAL FUCKING NUMBER, -4%? Is this the FED's out for now raising rates today?

cowdiddly's picture

@.9 with inflation factored this bitch is in a hard contraction and this idiot bitch done went and painted herself in a 100% corner. So now its a 1934 epic bonehead raise for the history books or a crawdad.

All because they never bothered to look out the windows of their own glass house.

Ah, this is going to be wonderful.

Games Without Frontiers's picture

I can hear the electric buzz of the printers being turned on.

Countrybunkererd's picture

Is that what was causing the global brownouts and rolling blackouts?  I thought it might have been fatboy using an EMP.  I think i prefer the EMP, well maybe not, well yes, well... see I should be working at the FED... oh God, i think i just became suicidal over the idea of being at the FED. 

mily's picture

Today, will all be about showing how resilient this POS market is

mily's picture

I think there is a chance BTFD will be spoilled by kuroda and his merry men tightening tonight

Yen Cross's picture

 The SNB is MOAR important.  The  Swiss National bank is almost 13% equity invested.

 That happens later this day.

 People wonder why there's no VOL. It's because Central Banks are propping up the ponzi.

  The Israel "central bank" is even worse. More like 23-25% of assets invested in equities.

mily's picture

It looks like SNB also been proping up EURCHF for some time (pretty interesting clip from the guy that called eurchf floor removal):

1stepcloser's picture

no worries, the new Atlanta Fed President will nigger rig the numbers

Consuelo's picture





We're down to same-day chicanery...?

Make_Mine_A_Double's picture

Yep, the half life of Fed market manipulation is down to about 45 minutes.

lester1's picture

Yellen wants to fuck Trump. That's why she's suddenly become hawkishafter a 40 year career of being a dove.

ljag's picture

I ain't got him grabbing any of that pussy!

mily's picture

BTW, VXV 3M futures tails are back again

Silver Savior's picture

I just want them to take it to $50,000 gold. Print you sick bastards.

Dewey Cheatum and Howe's picture

remember "green shoots" well...things didn't work out. seems the bag marked fertilizer, was actually AGENT ORANGE.

Herdee's picture

FED's trading desk that manipulates markets has gone bonkers.

Md4's picture

Tax refund spending.

Like priming a carburetor, and the tank is empty.