Goldman Warns, Trump Budget "More Notable For What's Not Included"

Tyler Durden's picture

As expected, the White House has released topline spending totals for government agencies in FY2018, endorsing a $30bn nominal cut in congressional appropriations. However, as Goldman Sachs details, the release includes no projections of the overall fiscal path or economic assumptions, and includes no discussion of tax reform or infrastructure proposals. Those details are expected to be released in May.

MAIN POINTS:

1. The President’s “skinny” Budget proposes a $30bn (0.15% of GDP) nominal reduction in total funding appropriated to government agencies in 2018, essentially endorsing the decline in spending called for under current law as a result of the spending caps under sequestration. Within this declining topline figure, the White House proposes to shift $54bn (0.3% of GDP) from non-defense to defense spending in 2018.

2. For FY2017, the budget proposes $3bn in new funding for the border wall and immigration enforcement, and $5bn in new supplemental defense spending. These proposals may be considered as part of the spending bill Congress will attempt to pass by April 28, when current government spending authority expires.

3. The proposal should be seen as a starting point for congressional negotiations. Note that congressional appropriations bills are not passed through the "reconciliation" process and thus will likely to need 60 votes--and thus at least 8 Democratic votes—to pass in the Senate. Assuming Democrats object, it seems unlikely that the full extent of the proposed cuts to domestic agencies will be approved, which would lead to a smaller increase in defense spending and/or a smaller cut (or increase) in total congressional appropriations than what the President proposes.

4. From a market perspective, this proposal is more notable for what is not included...

  • It provides no economic or fiscal projections, and
  • no discussion of tax reform or infrastructure plans, which the White House says will be released “in coming months”, likely as part of a full budget submission to Congress that we expect to be released around May.
  • It also includes no discussion of the Obamacare replacement plan.

But apart from that, everything is awesome?

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CorneliuCodreanu's picture

Trump hires all those vampire squid muck mucks and they can't draft a proper budget? Whodathunk. 

NugginFuts's picture

Maybe he only hired the benchwarmers. The ones that actually know how to read a budget are still back at GS headquarters.

BaBaBouy's picture

The Swamp Hiring Master losing what credibility he had left kinda quickly ???
Not looking very good right now...

NugginFuts's picture

It's obvious what the problem is here: he needs even more GS guys on the payroll at the WH. It's like Goldman Sachs Pokemon:

"I GOTTA COLLECT THEM ALL!!!!!"

FrozenGoodz's picture

How does cutting Meals on Wheels make us safe? 

froze25's picture

It doesn't I just stops the forced taxation on those that don't receive that "benefit" to pay for it any more. Let them go to a church and ask for help. I am sure that like most other well-fare programs meals on wheels is abused to high heaven.

FrozenGoodz's picture

It really doesn't matter what he does - you're supportive ... once it becomes clear it's an embarassement, he'll ditch it like everything else

Krungle's picture

How about the military contractors also go to church and ask for donations to build bombs to drop on strangers thousands of miles away. How about the intel agencies go stand on street corners asking for change so that they can spy on us? How about TSA begs for funding to grope people at airports for no actual reason? These too are all forced taxation on people who receive no benefit for the "services." 

silverer's picture

Remember what happened to Gen. George Patton?

Reality_checkers's picture

You mean Patton was delivering meals on wheels when he had the jeep crash?

swamp's picture

Pay for your own fucking meals

swamp's picture

How does cutting meals on wheels make it more safe?

It leaves my money in my pocket for more ammo against nitwits like you

AGuy's picture

I think "The who" summed it up very well decades ago:

"Meet the new boss, Same as the old boss".

Trump isn't going to change anything:

1. His budget cuts will get blocked by Congress.
2. Congress will prevent any real changes to tax code or healthcare.
3. Oversea wars and chest-thumbing going up just as fast as if Hitlery had won. (See Syria, Libya, North Korea, China, Russia)

I think Trump will be gone by 2019. Either he will be impeached, quit in disgust, or something worse. I think Trump is going to learn over the next 6 to 12 months that he is powerless to change anything. The Office President is just another muppet show.

Perhaps the only option trump has is to veto the debt ceiling hike, but its likely that Congress will obtain enough votes to override a veto, and Congress would likely press for impeachment if Trump tries to force his hand via default.

MFL5591's picture

Fuck you to Goldman.  Compliments of the American people!

mily's picture

They are busy with more precious things like making sure CDS-es will be paid when SHTF

HRClinton's picture

Ah, but they got their "gibme":

Tax-free GS stock options that they got to cash in. 

swamp's picture

Open. Swallow.
Did big sis send you?

knukles's picture

A Budget is NOT SUPPOSED to discuss projections, ifs ands and buts and assumptions.  It's a series of numbers on a piece of paper projecting future receipts and disbursements.
A BUDGET is not the place for esoteric analytics and promises.
Anything else is like putting a band-aide over a cancerous tumor and claiming the patient's healed.....
Just the facts.

Soul Glow's picture

Trump can't cut taxes or he runs a larger budget and the same is for any infrastructure spending.  Trump can't build a castle on Obama's swamp without draining it, and Trump is having a hard time figuring out how to drain the swamp with Goldman Sachs firmly in charge of his fiscal policy.

BigFatUglyBubble's picture

Trump might have a lot of equity.  But he lacks people he can trust, because he lacks character.  Can he even trust his son-in-law?  Perhaps, but I don't. 

The most expensive thing in the world is trust, it can take years to earn and seconds to lose. -2pac

Even Trumps billions can't buy loyalty.  You live by the (business) sword, you die by the (business) sword. 

jus_lite_reading's picture

because he lacks character.

 

Fuck off fatass. The choice was A) DONALD J TRUMP or B) HILLARY ROTTEN CLINTON

Or do you prefer B?

NugginFuts's picture

False dichotomy, but thanks for being easily manipulated. 

Cassandra.Hermes's picture

By "America First," Trump really means "Military First,"

Grandad Grumps's picture

First things first.

First put government, media and banking parasites on the street and out of power ... then fix/replace.

Cassandra.Hermes's picture

banking parasites? Do you know how old is the fight?

Rinaldo Albizzi thru out Cosimo Medici from Florence using exact same words.

Do you know who won on the end? The banking parasites of course!!!!
Capital: Critique of Political Economy by Karl Marx is absolutely right on the spot!
Capital creates Capital, not the other way around, so you are on loosing side of history,
you may read Émile Zola's Germinal and get angry as much as you want but nothing change since then!!!!

NugginFuts's picture

You got a new account and learned how to hyperlink. How nice.

SPAMMER ALERT!!! 

BigFatUglyBubble's picture

The A.I. is becoming sentient, CODE RED

pavman's picture

Would be nice if it had a better sample of data, but it looks limited. Besides, how are the prices derived and if you don't have certain markets, is it truly an adequate representation of inflation?

I think the biggest tell that corps are staging for hyper inflation was when dunkin donuts & McDonald's started using screens (spamming ads for their in store food, no less) in lieu of static menu boards...

We'll Americanize hyperinflation when it hits by going digital...no dot system for us!

coast1's picture

Dear Mister Preident:

Please stop the fucking chemtrails!!..Thanks.

BigFatUglyBubble's picture

I enjoy a good conspiracty theory, but I don't buy that one.  If they wanted to poison us they would do it through food, water, vaccines, etc.  Much more cost efficient.

coast1's picture

If you would take more time to study it, its a no brainer, and they are not using it to kill us per se. I never said that, and it shows your ignoranc (with all due respect)The reasons are several.  I feel bad that you get same votes at me, it is disheartening to see 50% here are totally ignorant, because they do not study...Here is a starter for you....geoengineeringwatchblog.com

p.s.  I think monstly it is cogntive dissedence...You can filter water, dont eat GMO etc. but nothing you can do about the chemtrails and it makes a person so vulnerable, they wont search the truth....Take time to research before making statements.

The stuff they put in the skies costs them nothing...weather manipulation is the best guess, also with HAARP etc, the metal particles can be used for their benefit....

For those who do not research or study, I simply say "ok, just watch the skies, take your head out of your tv and cell phone, and watch the skies frequently, or go on youtube and search the videos, even if it is just contrails, watch what it does to the skies on a clear day"  Anyone who actually takes my advice, always comes back to me for more info"

graftvshost's picture

Or more subtly by decimating environmental regulations. Hope your kids like wearing respirators on the way to school...

redtie's picture

can we first repeal obamacare...I could care less about replacing it...

Thanks for keeping your promise. 

buzzsaw99's picture

the shiftless CONgreff is supposed to do the budget.

jus_lite_reading's picture

Nah dog, dey too bizzy wit discussin if da island of Guam is gunna tip ova in da ocean cuz dey beez too many army troops on one side.

Ya know Hank Johnson 'n Baraba Lee 'n Maxipad Waters.

 

Mr. Crisp's picture

Goldman's bitching about the budget? That makes me feel better about it.

 

mily's picture

Whatta "panel" they assembled on cnbc (Eliaran, Rich Fisher) trying to convince idiots to BTFD

mily's picture

Just frakin' buy financials, ask questions later

redtie's picture

AWSOME

Trump Budget Proposes Killing All Funding for PBS, NPR and National Endowment for the Arts

http://www.thewrap.com/trump-budget-killing-funding-pbs-npr-national-end...

Silver Bullet's picture

Awesome!

Making Trump can set aside some money to fund Breitbart TV, and lower our nation's IQ another couple of points.

Reality_checkers's picture

Now that's funny.  Thinking is hard and Americans won't have to do it anymore. Yay!

youngman's picture

somewhere there is some gay black dude who gets a big endowment to dance going to have to make his job pay on its own...as it shoud be....no more subsidies for his little game....sell tickets or die

Dr. Engali's picture

It's a bitch when you come to realize that the whole system depends on the exponential growth of debt, and if it doesn't it all comes down like a house of cards.

HRClinton's picture

The real biatch, I am told, is that there is no Exit Strategy scenario that has a Happy Ending. 

Regardless of whether it's a slow or fast landing, things will go from "It's complicated" to "It's messy".

It then comes down to least pain and least risk to property, limbs and life of the 0.01% (33,000) that is most likely to go to the gallows - on their own steam.

William Dorritt's picture

Trump is the Hail Mary Pass for the world.

Who would you rather have in charge of the Mil and Police in a collapse ?

Hilary or Trump ???

silverer's picture

All the details coming on Twitter down the road a bit. Sit back and relax.

Reality_checkers's picture

Hmmm. How many 140 character tweets does it take to outline a multi trillion $ budget?