Another "Recession Dead Ahead" Indicator Just Hit

Tyler Durden's picture

During the FOMC press conference this week, Janet Yellen was pushed by Bloomberg's Kathleen Hays to explain why she hiked rates amid what was evidently not a surging economy.

While Q1 looks to be the weakest economic growth period for a rate hike since 1980... 


Today we got some more weakness-confirming real-time 'hard' data confirming the facts that the US economy is anything but as strong and resilient as Yellen proclaimed it.

Industrial Production has never declined on a 24-month basis without the US economy being in recession...

So, dear Janet, explain yourself (or just blame the weather... for 29 straight months).

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Sam Clemons's picture

More like explain  how we're already in a recession with stocks at all time highs.  Thought the market led the economy?

cossack55's picture

No, the market is a forward-leaning-trailing-indicator

JRobby's picture

Janet will raise 0.25% in June. Her overlord handlers have instructed her to do so.

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I hope you’re happy conservatives – you’ve just destroyed our economy

A Latinocentric History Of America

WTFRLY's picture


Judy Shepherd: [reads] "Don't be fooled, it isn't thunder / Staying put would be a blunder."

Alan Parrish: Run! IT'S A STAMPEDE! 

fx's picture

Industrial production doesn't matter that much anymore. We are in the virtual, dotcom, online, service-driven economy. Or so the thinking goes among the FED and the believers in #neverRecession.

manofthenorth's picture

 "Thought the market led the economy?"

What are these "markets" you speak of ????

This is one big fat engineered bubble by design, not a market.

The FED owns this ugly POS and will "pull it" when they are ready.

stizazz's picture

Pitchfork, tar and feather.

Handful of Dust's picture

"If you want to keep your robust recovery, you can keep your robust recovery. I promise!"


J.C. Penney lists 138 store closings including 9 in Texas


Obama should apologize to the American people for lying 24/7 and destroying the American economy.

techpriest's picture

Tinpot dictators never apologize.

Consuelo's picture



Get with it my good man - we're $Monetizing our Blogs...!!!


And better yet, readying them for Export...!!!


Trade/Account Surplus, here we CUM....!!!!

GUS100CORRINA's picture

Not sure if this was by design, but the headlines below look to be contributing to the decline of assets in the PM complex. I am convinced that the PMs will never be allowed to rise.

=== HEADLINES ====

Another "Recession Dead Ahead" Indicator Just Hit

MAR 17, 2017 9:39 AM


Atlanta Fed vs NY Fed: Whose GDP Forecast Is Right?

Are we descending towards recession? How could the NY Fed plausibly give such a madly high estimate (which if true would be the second highest in 2-years)?

MAR 17, 2017 11:43 AM


BofA: The Market Is No Longer Efficient

MAR 17, 2017 11:22 AM


Dollar, Bond Yields Tumble As Inflation Expectations Crash To Record Lows

While reflation trades run amok in capital markets, real people's expectations of inflation in the medium-term has collapsed to its lowest on record...

MAR 17, 2017 10:21 AM


Consumer Confidence: Democrats Expect "Deep Recession", Republicans Look To New Golden Age

MAR 17, 2017 10:09 AM


Another Week Of Huge Outflows From Active Managers, Huger Inflows To ETFs

The highly compensated world of active fund managers continued to disintegrate before their eyes in the last week, when even as overall cash continued to flood into equities for a total of $14.5 billion, the 11th consecutive week of inflows, this was entirely due to allocations to ETFs, which saw $19.7 billion in inflows, the highest weekly amount YTD, offset by $5.1 billion in outflows from actively managed funds.

MAR 17, 2017 9:53 AM

JRobby's picture

Resoration of manufacturing as a larger portion of GDP and a reduction in Financialization's GDP contribution will cure many economic woes.


Oldwood's picture

Declining industrial production indicates Utopia is at hand as no one need actually produce ANYTHING EVER AGAIN?.  Let the Chinese do what Americans are too entitled to do.

Md4's picture

And because we make next to nothing (except trouble and debt), our trade deficit is headed for the moon...

CJgipper's picture

The worst part of that chart is how SMALL the positive portion is between 2009 and now (the inflection point).

Million Dollar Bonehead's picture

Not to worry, peons. The transition to serfdom and subjugation need not be extremely painful. Truly your wealth will be confiscated, but what did that wealth ever get you other than the seething feeling of anxiety that you might lose it? Submit to Neo-Serfdom, work hard, and feel the peace of knowing that your superiors are making all the difficult decisions for you. Or you can end up face down in a trench covered with a thin dusting of quicklime. The choice is yours. Long live Dear Leader Hillary!!!! Praise be to Molech the Wise!!!

BullyBearish's picture

they're raising because they've sucked all the blood they can and now it's time to use that blood to pick up deals for pennies on the dollar...

Unreliable Narrator's picture

Lol.  Where is the real MDB?


A crash is the only thing that can restore the economy.  The logic-defying stock market bubble has tied up trillions in capital as 1s and 0s in banking cyberspace where it cannot be used to build factories or buildings, retool or modernize, hire or train new employees because companies found it more profitable to hand their debt-obtained Monopoly money to hedge funds and Goldman instead of investing in capital purchases to increase output and/or reduce operating costs.


The only thing that frees that money to be used in a productive manner is a crash.  And what sucks most about it is that millions of ordinary people will be wiped out as the price of restarting our economic engine.  But I'm sure Hillary's okay with that.  Molech requires sacrifice.

JRobby's picture

Psychotic Fuck

Choke on mass Globalist semen load you freak

Peacefulwarrior's picture

Dude Have a Green Beer, the MDB is a sardonic Provocateur to ignite thought. He's probably the least dangerous guy on this site.

Arnold's picture

Those ETF s sound like a safe, broad range investment........
Talk to me about variable annuities too.

Ledlak's picture

I'm telling you, it's global warming. Yeah, that's it!

ATM's picture

It's all that money that the Fed printed to bail out the banks that is finding it's new home in stocks and other assets. There are still trillions to go. The stock market can keep going up even in the face of a recession or depression in the real economy.

Just look at Venezuela and Zimbabwe.

Stocks go up! 

We just haven't realized yet that what we are witnessing is the destruct of the dollar as a store of value.

SmilinJoeFizzion's picture

yes, everywhere on the planet the "Latino" population is thriving. Fuck off dbag

ShorTed's picture

This isn't even a troll!  As Chuck Schumer is fond of saying, "Get to work Mr. MDB!"

BigFatUglyBubble's picture

Do a neocon shtick now.  Libtard one is old

City_Of_Champyinz's picture

It is all old, and some of the worst 'sarcasm' in the history of the written word.  The link spamming cunt needs to be banned for gods sake.

BrownCoat's picture

@ City_Of_Champyinz,

Chill out dude. Just don't click on the links. There, fixed it for ya.

Obamacare Lite, Deep State resistance and you are worried about a little spam?!  It's the Total Perspective Vortex for you and then a green Pan-Galactic Gargle Blaster.

JTimchenko's picture

You, my friend, understand nothing. The Fed is part of globalist alliance that wants to bring down President Trump and right now the best way to do that is to raise interest rates to sabotage the fake economic "recovery" they created. The banksters printed money to save themselves from suffering the consequences of their greed and mistakes. Now, they don't need the money anymore, so they are going to restrict the money supply to destroy the US and world economy, and work toward getting people to accept the idea of a world central bank.

JTimchenko's picture

You, my friend, understand nothing. The Fed is part of globalist alliance that wants to bring down President Trump and right now the best way to do that is to raise interest rates to sabotage the fake economic "recovery" they created. The banksters printed money to save themselves from suffering the consequences of their greed and mistakes. Now, they don't need the money anymore, so they are going to restrict the money supply to destroy the US and world economy, and work toward getting people to accept the idea of a world central bank.

Kelley's picture

A quarter is 91 days. 

Trump has been in office 56 days. The first quarter doesn't end until March 31st, so the dip in the chart is from December 31st. Trump didn't get sworn in until 20 days into the 1st quarter. He was never president during the 4th quarter.

Maybe Trump could raid some bakeries like is being done in LatinoAmerica to improve the economy. 

michigan independant's picture

The special education in social composites do invoke your advantages in the effective soliloquy with the textured monologues to the melting snowflakes that will indeed  later fathom that only the dead know peace. Or the true addage that the sled dog always looks at the asshole in front of him since the choice in the order makes no difference on tax day.


1stepcloser's picture

so you're suggesting another $10 Trillion in Liberal loving debt will fix it...?  BTW The economy was destroyed during Dumbycrat Wilson's era....


"I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world — no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men."

Gead's picture

You do realize in your ever-posting mind that unless you are the resident of another planet, you too will be caught up in the results of economic failure? For your own sake I hope you've stayed in shape, own firearms you are proficient with, have enough food and water to last a year or so, possess knowledge of basic medicine and other worthwhile skills (and no, being a troll in your underwear in your mother's basement popping Cheetohs and guzzling Mountain Dew doesn't count as a valuable talent). If not - you're far worse off than the poorest among the citizens of this world. Simply put - you have too far to fall to adjust and survive what's coming. No one will care, no one will assist you, you will be on your own with no support. Imagine that!!! To be forced to actually act and be totally responsible for your life.

JRobby's picture

The Political Fed , ECB etc. are trying to stop the world economy in the face of the regime changes that are occurring around the world that reject Globalism.

They will lose and try to crash the system in the process.

Spoiled psychopathic inbred children of rotten genetic lineage. Euthanize!!!!!


bongey's picture

How could we, Democrats always beat us to it. 

DanDaley's picture

I hope you’re happy conservatives – you’ve just destroyed our economy

A Latinocentric History Of America


Most latinos have European genes floating around in them...and have been exploiting the native peoples of the Americas for generations just like everybody else has.

Of course there will eventually be a war with the Aztlan-ers, spearheaded by groups like MS-13, La Raza, the cartels, and others.

Like Virginia Wolf said: "Relax into're no better than the rest of us."

silverer's picture

MillionDollarBogus: You destroyed it. You did it. How do you like that? With as full of an explanation that you gave. I don't need no stinkin' facts. You did it!

LifeandLiberty's picture

Try again - they didn't destroy the economy - The Socialist/Progressive Obama did. The Fed and powers that be did everything they could to make sure a recession would not happen while the 1st Black President was in office. With the exception of the stock market every other indicator that caused the 2008 Great Recession is worse today - thanks to Obama. 

Tristan Ludlow's picture

Where is the 1st MDB?  I would even accept his replacement, MDB II.  You are just a shadow of the satire the other two demonstrated.  

BrownCoat's picture

@ MillionDollarBonus_,

Nice job! 93 down votes. Looks like you struck a nerve.

P.S. I'm one of the down votes.

IMO, Obama presided over an economy similar to FDR. Not a coincidence, I think Obama's actions significantly damaged the economy (e.g. $4/gal gas to promote his green job initiative. Those high costs killed businesses and family budgets that were hanging on by a thread).

Trump's military spending won't work either, however, like every president he wants to stimulate the economy and reward his support base. The economy will pay for the stimulus later, just like the roaring 1960's gave us stagflation 1970's.

raeb's picture

Of all the posters here, I believe you hold the record for down votes.  I have noticed a significant deterioration in your posts here.  This indicates to me you need psychopathic therapy now.  For your welfare don't put it off.

MK13's picture

He probably gets paid per response. Let's suck Soros dry paying this idiot.

MK13's picture


The man who advocated raising taxes to control inflation!! Brilliant!! Because raising taxes at this level of economic activity and tax burden will cause no economic response by those like myself who pay the lion share of taxes, the HENRYs.

Not an intellectual, total idiot you are.

drewski1000's picture

I better start feeding the dog so he doesn't keep dragging shit in like this guy.

Last1Out's picture

reconquista will surely succeed! Especially since Latinos have such a martial reputation. Mexico for instance, has never been able to prosecute even a decent civil war. Speaking as an Anglo veteran with ground combat experience there will be a reconquista free zone in a roughly 200 mile radius from my house. Angers lead the way!